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fake breakouts against a strong trend

  • #41
  • Sep 19, 2010 7:54am Sep 19, 2010 7:54am
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  • #42
  • Sep 19, 2010 7:56am Sep 19, 2010 7:56am
Quoting tradpat
Hi ale

Yes, I like "fake (false) breaks."
It is one of the methods I use currently in trading.
*combining with PA, TL, SL, RL and MA.

Pls. keep up your chart analyst.

BTW, what MAs shown in your charts?

Happy Trading, pal.

Cheers
Hi Pat, mas are simply 100-50-30 sma to show the trend (thanks to Mr.Hector Deville), but I'm not so sure this is the best filter...gonna try
  • #43
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:09am Sep 19, 2010 8:09am
Breakout on A bar
Enter long on B bar (horizontal blue line)
Stop loss Horizontal red line (not taken)
First target point C (where we set stop at brek even point)
Second target point D (we set stop at E point)
+ 8 pips
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  • #44
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:19am Sep 19, 2010 8:19am
Fractal breakout on candle A
Enter long on candle B (blue line)
Stop loss red line
On C we move stop to break even
On D we move stop to green line
We reach point E and move stop to magenta line
Stop is hit on point F (just one pip, not so lucky)
+18 pips
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  • #45
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:21am Sep 19, 2010 8:21am
Then we have 2 setups, one loser for sure, the second maybe at break even, now I check
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  • #46
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:25am Sep 19, 2010 8:25am
enter long on blue line (A candle)
Stop loss Red line (point B)
-7 pips (spread included)
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  • #47
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:30am Sep 19, 2010 8:30am
Quoting ale73a
Hi Pat, mas are simply 100-50-30 sma to show the trend (thanks to Mr.Hector Deville), but I'm not so sure this is the best filter...gonna try
Hi ale

I read many commented those "big boys" are using the combination of 50/100/150/200 all in SMAs.

I also read some pros use 5/13/62, 5/10, 8/21 (all in EMAs), 5/20 SMAs...also read some are using single MA like 5, 20 or 21 (SMA or EMA).

IMO, it is depending on the preference of individual trader to suit his/her trading sytle/method.

If you already followed your "master" like Mr. H D, then just proceed with it.

Myself currently using 5, 8 and 21 EMAs.
FYI I do NOT rely purely on EMAs.

Cheers
  • #48
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:43am Sep 19, 2010 8:43am
it wasn't a be trade, it won
A candle did breakout
B candle enter long on blue line
At point C we moved stop loss from red line to breakeven
In D we put it at point C (green line)
Was hit at point E
+6 pips
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  • #49
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:48am Sep 19, 2010 8:48am
Quoting tradpat
Hi ale

I read many commented those "big boys" are using the combination of 50/100/150/200 all in SMAs.

I also read some pros use 5/13/62, 5/10, 8/21 (all in EMAs), 5/20 SMAs...also read some are using single MA like 5, 20 or 21 (SMA or EMA).

IMO, it is depending on the preference of individual trader to suit his/her trading sytle/method.

If you already followed your "master" like Mr. H D, then just proceed with it.

Myself currently using 5, 8 and 21 EMAs.
FYI I do NOT rely purely on EMAs.

Cheers
Although I thank E.D. because I'm using an "indicator " of his, I don't say he is a big boy
Thanks for your advice I keep testing this way, then I'll see...
  • #50
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:55am Sep 19, 2010 8:55am
I took this trade 'cause MAs were still in order at the moment of breakout of the previous fractal:
+4 pips
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  • #51
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:00am Sep 19, 2010 9:00am
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  • #52
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:06am Sep 19, 2010 9:06am
In this case we don't take a potential winning trade 'cause the red ma is just a little over the green one.
I know this filter can't be the best one, but I have to be strict on testing...
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  • #53
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:06am Sep 19, 2010 9:06am
Quoting ale73a
Although I thank E.D. because I'm using an "indicator " of his, I don't say he is a big boy
Thanks for your advice I keep testing this way, then I'll see...
My understanding about "Big Boys" are referring to large bankers, large brokers, central banks, or large financial institutions.

I guess you meant Mr. H D is a professional trader?

Cheers
  • #54
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:08am Sep 19, 2010 9:08am
the day finish with
+8
+18
-7
+6
+4
tot 29 pips
  • #55
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:12am Sep 19, 2010 9:12am
Quoting tradpat
My understanding about "Big Boys" are referring to large bankers, large brokers, central banks, or large financial institutions.

I guess you meant Mr. H D is a professional trader?

Cheers
Now I got it
The man sold a course (nothing new , I don't know if he is a professional )
Ciao Pat!
  • #56
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:18am Sep 19, 2010 9:18am
First trade of tuesday was loser -3 pips +1 spread = -4 pips
enter on the first ellypse, sl hit on second ellypse
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  • #57
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:26am Sep 19, 2010 9:26am
hi !

what MAs do u use ? ( simple or exponential ? )

is it the same(MAs) for all the timeframes ?

u have tried this on only 5min and daily charts ?

on what pairs have u tested this on ?

thanks .
  • #58
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:47am Sep 19, 2010 9:47am
Quoting TheArcher
hi !

what MAs do u use ? ( simple or exponential ? )

is it the same(MAs) for all the timeframes ?

u have tried this on only 5min and daily charts ?

on what pairs have u tested this on ?

thanks .
Hi Archer, the MAs are simple and an easy backtest can be made only on small tf. The reason is that if the breakout and the reversal toward the main trend (long entry point) are in the same candle, the 1h tf, 4h tf and daily tf can be deceptive because the stop loss can be hit and we cannot see it.
See my post 25 and 26 and you will understand better.
A real backtest on the main tf can be done just if we decide that we enter long ONLY on the bar after the breakout one (turtle soup 2)
  • #59
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:48am Sep 19, 2010 9:48am
back testing are so long and boring, so...random so far, not just only one pair
  • #60
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:59am Sep 19, 2010 9:59am
Hi ale and traders

I just finished listing down a topic "PA vs Long Wicks"
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=246328
at post no. 164.

I trust it will be useful and benefit to you and others.

Happy Reading & Trading.

Good nite.

Cheers
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