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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #74,941
  • Sep 16, 2010 6:06am Sep 16, 2010 6:06am
Quoting mbqb11
aint that the truth
I'm sure we could all think of a few more worthwhile things to do with $320b!
  • #74,942
  • Sep 16, 2010 6:31am Sep 16, 2010 6:31am
Quoting Chris P
"Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results" is the definition of insanity - Albert Einstein.
I assume Dr Einstein then followed up this statement by discussing the differences between sterilized and unsterilized intervention.

Quoting Chris P
Recently the Swiss National Bank spent about $200b over the past year buying Euro to weaken the Swiss Franc and in that time the Swiss Franc RALLIED 15%.
I suspect someone is missing the point here.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #74,943
  • Sep 16, 2010 6:36am Sep 16, 2010 6:36am
Quoting davidnorman
Hi all

Sorry this is USD-CHF NOT CAD So sorry..

Would i be right in suggesting that there is some long term support as per my chart attachment..

Dave
Yes you would

Parity is a very key level on this pair that will attract a LOT of attention. This is a nice area for us to wait for price action.

Best,
Chris
  • #74,944
  • Sep 16, 2010 6:41am Sep 16, 2010 6:41am
In my opinion the BOJ is blowing on an oil rig fire. The size of the forex market makes it allmost impossible for anyone to change the direction of the trend of a currency.

In situations like these a perception change will be much better than throwing 100billion at the problem. They need to get the market perception on their side. This can be done by creating the perception of yen weakness. How they do this is the challenge. By fabricating bad news or economic indicators could be a route but then there is obviously a question of ethics..

Only time will tell what will happen.

For now we can only try and use this volatilty and big volume in the market to our advantage by entering into VALID A+ SETUPS in the direction of the broader market perception.
Thank you j16!
  • #74,945
  • Sep 16, 2010 6:48am Sep 16, 2010 6:48am
Quoting joelcf
I assume Dr Einstein then followed up this statement by discussing the differences between sterilized and unsterilized intervention.
I'm not sure Einstein would have been aware of the difference, but this was definitely sterilized. Unsterilized would have a more gradual effect on the currency, at least that's how I read it.

Quoting joelcf
I suspect someone is missing the point here.
Yeah, the BoJ!! lol Yes, this might incur a short term rally AGAINST the Yen, but history has shown that if sentiment is against, the trend will continue. Correct me if you think I've missed something here.
  • #74,946
  • Sep 16, 2010 6:52am Sep 16, 2010 6:52am
Has anyone been watching the PB on the 4H-TF of E-C today, nice confluence off the BRN/PPZ @ 13000, FTA is the previous day high @ 13068, final target previous weekly high @ 13134.
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Pipcrawler
  • #74,947
  • Sep 16, 2010 6:57am Sep 16, 2010 6:57am
Hello

just saw that price reversed at 1.34 level which also is a 61 FIb, BRN 1.34 and is at a weekly PPZ with the 79 MA close by
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  • #74,948
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:02am Sep 16, 2010 7:02am
Quoting Chris P
I'm not sure Einstein would have been aware of the difference, but this was definitely sterilized. Unsterilized would have a more gradual effect on the currency, at least that's how I read it.
Whatever you were reading is way off the mark. It doesnt even make sense.

Quoting Chris P
Yeah, the BoJ!! lol Yes, this might incur a short term rally AGAINST the Yen, but history has shown that if sentiment is against, the trend will continue. Correct me if you think I've missed something here.
So, by that definition, the SNB wasted all that money.

Strangely, given the current state of the Swiss economy and the recovery since they started trying to arrest the slide, I suspect alot of Swiss businesses and citizens would disagree with you there.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #74,949
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:20am Sep 16, 2010 7:20am
Anyone know whats happening to the Swissie
Is the SNB at it again??
  • #74,950
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:21am Sep 16, 2010 7:21am
Quoting joelcf
....
So, by that definition, the SNB wasted all that money.
Strangely, given the current state of the Swiss economy and the recovery since they started trying to arrest the slide, I suspect alot of Swiss businesses and citizens would disagree with you there.
i presume u are referring to the positive economic implications of the SNB's intervention.:nerd:
  • #74,951
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:22am Sep 16, 2010 7:22am
Quoting joelcf
Whatever you were reading is way off the mark. It doesnt even make sense.

So, by that definition, the SNB wasted all that money.

Strangely, given the current state of the Swiss economy and the recovery since they started trying to arrest the slide, I suspect alot of Swiss businesses and citizens would disagree with you there.
Hi Joel,

If you can explain a bit more about the difference, or point me in the direction of a reputable source, that would be great. TBO, I don't tend to spend a lot of time reading up on the background economics. 5 years of just studying PA has served me well enough. (The original text I wrote was a quote from Barry Ritholz: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/)

I wasn't saying that the Swiss economy, and as such the Japanese economy, would be affected by such intervention in a negative way. Merely pointing out that it hadn't changed the overall direction of their respective currencies against the market.

Best,
Chris
  • #74,952
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:24am Sep 16, 2010 7:24am
Quoting supremeChaos
i presume u are referring to the positive economic implications of the SNB's intervention.:nerd:
DF spiked up 200 pips today - is that SNB intervention?
  • #74,953
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:26am Sep 16, 2010 7:26am
Quoting stewrigh
Anyone know whats happening to the Swissie
Is the SNB at it again??
see the Calendar.
we had CHF-related news earlier. USD news a few minutes from now
  • #74,954
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:27am Sep 16, 2010 7:27am
Quoting supremeChaos
see the Calendar.
we had CHF-related news earlier. USD news a few minutes from now
Yeah but the CHF news was good for the franc
  • #74,955
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:30am Sep 16, 2010 7:30am
Quoting stewrigh
DF spiked up 200 pips today - is that SNB intervention?
from ThomsonReuters news:
"The Swiss is weakening in the wake of the SNB decision to leave rates unchanged. The SNB warns of risks to the economy from Franc strength and is dovish on its inflation outlook. There has been unconfirmed rumours of the SNB themselves in the market buying USD/CHF in the last few minutes"

Quoting stewrigh
Yeah but the CHF news was good for the franc
u mean the 'unchanged' rate?
sometimes the currency weakens after an 'unchanged' rate decision. (at least in some of my observations in the past)
  • #74,956
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:34am Sep 16, 2010 7:34am
Quoting supremeChaos
from ThomsonReuters news:
"The Swiss is weakening in the wake of the SNB decision to leave rates unchanged. The SNB warns of risks to the economy from Franc strength and is dovish on its inflation outlook. There has been unconfirmed rumours of the SNB themselves in the market buying USD/CHF in the last few minutes"
Thanks SC
  • #74,957
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:38am Sep 16, 2010 7:38am
Quoting supremeChaos
i presume u are referring to the positive economic implications of the SNB's intervention.:nerd:
Exactly. If your house sets on fire, you dont just stand there and let it burn to the ground; you pick up a bucket and try and slow down the flames as much as you can until help arrives. Might as well try and minimise the current and future damage using whatever tools you have on hand.

And afterwards, you hardly call your efforts a 'failure' because you and your bucket didnt put out the fire yourselves.

Analogies!
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #74,958
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:48am Sep 16, 2010 7:48am
Quoting supremeChaos
from ThomsonReuters news:
"The Swiss is weakening in the wake of the SNB decision to leave rates unchanged. The SNB warns of risks to the economy from Franc strength and is dovish on its inflation outlook. There has been unconfirmed rumours of the SNB themselves in the market buying USD/CHF in the last few minutes"


u mean the 'unchanged' rate?
sometimes the currency weakens after an 'unchanged' rate decision. (at least in some of my observations in the past)

No - I was looking at industrial production.
  • #74,959
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:50am Sep 16, 2010 7:50am
Quoting Chris P
(The original text I wrote was a quote from Barry Ritholz: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/)
I think it was actually from Boockvar, one of my favourite Ron Paul clones. It's pretty much down his standard Nero-esque line.

Quoting Chris P
I wasn't saying that the Swiss economy, and as such the Japanese economy, would be affected by such intervention in a negative way. Merely pointing out that it hadn't changed the overall direction of their respective currencies against the market.
And it wasnt designed to. People who say that they 'failed' because they didnt reverse a price trend are looking at a small part of a big picture.

Generally, I find that they know that too.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #74,960
  • Sep 16, 2010 8:04am Sep 16, 2010 8:04am
long nose and at a swing high. The only question on my mind is IF it breaks then where can we expect price to stall. My first inclination is at the top or middle of the consolidation it just broke out of.
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