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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #13,981
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:42pm Sep 15, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting strat
If you get swept up with all the paranoia of any National Bank intervention, you are sure to lose.

The beauty about technical analysis is that no-one, NO-ONE can hide.

Everything that is done by any major institution is reflected in our PRICE charts. Yes, there may be anomalies on a daily basis which will suck the novices and amateurs in but, over time, the market stabilises, balances itself out and gets back in equilibrium.

Our concern is nothing compared to that of the big boys - do they follow the intervention or continue their strategy?...
Understand your comments.
We are all familiar with the Soros versus BOE match-up in the early 90's - and who emerged the eventual winner when all 15 rounds were complete!
However, I would ask the question " how big is the BOJ as a player, if they decide they really do want to play and this is more than just a warning shot"?
You say we are looking for the footprints left by the big boys. Is BOJ wearing size 13 jack-boots or kiddy slippers?
  • #13,982
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:55pm Sep 15, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting trogger
Understand your comments.
We are all familiar with the Soros versus BOE match-up in the early 90's - and who emerged the eventual winner when all 15 rounds were complete!
However, I would ask the question " how big is the BOJ as a player, if they decide they really do want to play and this is more than just a warning shot"?
You say we are looking for the footprints left by the big boys. Is BOJ wearing size 13 jack-boots or kiddy slippers?
The BOJ is one of many National Banks
There are many trading banks with larger trading assets than many country's GDP.
There are many financial institutions with larger trading assets than many country's GDP.
There are many funds with larger trading assets than many country's GDP.

It is NOT just about BOJ, it is about ALL of them
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,983
  • Sep 15, 2010 8:20pm Sep 15, 2010 8:20pm
If you look back to the "flash crash" of May 6th this year, - this intervention doesnt look quite so big after all.....
  • #13,984
  • Sep 15, 2010 9:08pm Sep 15, 2010 9:08pm
Quoting Yebisu
If you look back to the "flash crash" of May 6th this year, - this intervention doesnt look quite so big after all.....
True. And as Strat has pointed out before, we shouldn't be taking positions until the "controlling candles" are taken out in one direction or the other.
I would point out however that the market eventually ran in the same direction as the may 6 candle, and,
While I might not be buying - yet - I certainly don't intend to be selling a break of recent lows given the salvo from BOJ!!
  • #13,985
  • Edited 9:18pm Sep 15, 2010 9:16pm | Edited 9:18pm
Quoting trogger
Understand your comments.
We are all familiar with the Soros versus BOE match-up in the early 90's - and who emerged the eventual winner when all 15 rounds were complete!
However, I would ask the question " how big is the BOJ as a player, if they decide they really do want to play and this is more than just a warning shot"?
You say we are looking for the footprints left by the big boys. Is BOJ wearing size 13 jack-boots or kiddy slippers?
I have just watched segments from a Reuters interview with him where he stated that the BOJ were right to intervene but he wasn't drawn by the interviewer's question as to whether the BOJ intervention would work (So I guess we don't know which side he has his cash stacked up against!)

[He also stated that while gold might make new highs (after the 1275 set on 14 Sept) it wasn't a safe buy.]
  • #13,986
  • Sep 15, 2010 10:18pm Sep 15, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting trogger
OOOOPS!

I had better practise that mental arithmetic - I mentioned not taking a NZD.JPY long because of what I perceived to be poor R:R (less than one).
If my analysis (that long is in order) is correct, then using the entry, target and SL given in my previous post the R:R is actually OK. [Nobody pointed my mistake out, so I guess nobody is interested in, or monitoring, this pair?]

With the correct R:R in mind I am now long. I took entry off the 4 hour chart attached.
Attachment
Have taken profits on first two positions and have one remaining with SL now at 60.30 or just under the low of the 14 Sept bar (arrowed).
Intention is to follow PA on this position, looking for signal from the daily to close (if not taken out at 60.30).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd.jpy.daily.16sept.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #13,987
  • Sep 15, 2010 10:55pm Sep 15, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting euro_dude
Hi trogger:

It is at support now but if you zoom out some more - the downtrend becomes more visible!

Regards,
JS
Thanks for your reply and
Yes, I have these lines too, but as Strat has said we can only trade the IMMEDIATE trend. I believe the lines below are the immediately important ones, and should be considered in conjunction with the analysis of HH, HL, HH etc provided in my original post
I did stress that this pair was at what I termed a critical juncture if the recent uptrend was to remain intact....

With that in mind, plus the fact that the market rarely offers an R:R of 10:1 or better, I took the bounce off Monday morning's open, risking 50 pips for the targets mentioned. Not Strictly a Strat trade as per this thread but PA at SR nonetheless.
I have closed one position and left the SL at 2.095 on the other two...
Attachment
Attached Image
  • #13,988
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:23am Sep 16, 2010 5:23am
Lets' see what happens near 135
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad16092010.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #13,989
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:31am Sep 16, 2010 5:31am
Still within longer term down trend. I will think about it again above 88.50 till then I just a watching game.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy16092010w.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #13,990
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:35am Sep 16, 2010 5:35am
Let's see if it goes where I want it to go if it keep following the channel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd16092010w.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #13,991
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:39am Sep 16, 2010 5:39am
I will wait for the resolution... or bearish PA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchf16092010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #13,992
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:49am Sep 16, 2010 5:49am
Are we getting close to buying opportunity?, I am worried about two highlighted wicks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd16092010d.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #13,993
  • Sep 16, 2010 6:33am Sep 16, 2010 6:33am
Quoting simpleman
Are we getting close to buying opportunity?, I am worried about two highlighted wicks.
The two wicks show sellers in control, does not look a buying opportunity due to strong overhead R and a weekly TL. The weekly MA's are slightly bullish but just look at the SR level on BB (not attached).
One to watch for PASR at SR.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd_w_ksd_1609.gif Size: 45 KB
  • #13,994
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:20am Sep 16, 2010 7:20am
Quoting kalvind
The two wicks show sellers in control, does not look a buying opportunity due to strong overhead R and a weekly TL. The weekly MA's are slightly bullish but just look at the SR level on BB (not attached).
One to watch for PASR at SR.

Attachment
When did I say wicks are buying opportunity?
  • #13,995
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:22am Sep 16, 2010 7:22am
Quoting simpleman
Are we getting close to buying opportunity?, I am worried about two highlighted wicks.
Personally, I see this as a sell if anything.
Your daily chart already shows a BEEB on 15 Sept with a further break lower today (16 Sept).
This action on the daily occurs after a years worth of monthly bars with close respecting the 73 number and recent wicks rejecting 74 after strong rejection of higher levels back in Oct/Nov of 2009. Close price has not been outside the May bar, so I would have taken the short targeting 68/69 if I was looking to trade this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd.us.weekly.16sept.gif Size: 13 KB


The weekly, while showing 3 bullish bars preceding this week, has all of the last months action occurring within the controlling bar for week starting 8 August (or is controlling bar on the weekly the doji for the week starting 25 July? - see next post). Again, this weeks bar shows every sign of rejection by the 74 level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd.us.w.16sept.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #13,996
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:28am Sep 16, 2010 7:28am
Quoting trogger
Personally, I see this as a sell
Attachment
Selling in the uptrend?
  • #13,997
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:28am Sep 16, 2010 7:28am
Mates, if you post cropped charts please put a note on them specifying the pair, I don't like going back looking for the original poster to find the pair. Thanks!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #13,998
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:35am Sep 16, 2010 7:35am
Quoting simpleman
When did I say wicks are buying opportunity?
True you were worried about the wicks, but where is the buying opportinity until these wicks are cleared and also the weekly TL?
Currently it is in uptrend only if it posts a HH somewhere after this cycle down?
  • #13,999
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:45am Sep 16, 2010 7:45am
Levels to watch...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd16092010d.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #14,000
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:48am Sep 16, 2010 7:48am
Those who have read the thread knows what I am talking about in all the above posts so I don't have to explain PASR and trends and boss and big boss and patterns and wedges and breakouts and retest and trend lines and dsri and candles and .......

Whenever I post any thing/charts/analysis doesn't mean you act on basis of my analysis.

Learn to understand PASR and you will never need anyone.
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