YEN Pairs

Hi Traders

As of now
G/J up > 500
E/J up > 380
U/J up > 280
and so goes to other J pairs.

What will you do upon closing today?
BE and let it runs free until next TP?
Close once for all?
Or...

Will the Jep intervene work for the least the short term (uptrend)?

Pls. offer your input.

Cheers
tpat

Be wary, because even though Japan's MOF said they may intervene through Thursday, most expect the yen drop to be short lived. Don't let your greed wind up costing you....

The usd/jpy pair is expected to drop below 82.00.the intervention will be of no use else than white washing the economy

goldman-sachs-calls-usdjpy-below-80, thats a good comment. I mean is this mas just like to say to japan " dont throw the rock in the sky and hope it can fly even higher " I think japan dont read the manual very carefully. Last time they throw 35 trillion yen ($421.7 billion) it makes yen much strongger again vs dollar US. And other know about it thats why they act alone this time. I think thats not the way to make a better currecy exchange, cause there is alot of ways to make this became profit not by make them reversal by force like thats. They may control central bank and broker ( some perhaps ) but they are not control the trader who trade the market.

So how many more of "1 trin yen" can BOJ throw?

Japan spent up to 1 trln yen to intervene
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jap...dist=afterbell

An interesting comment on YEN intervention...
http://www.forexcrunch.com/5-reasons...ion-will-hold/

Junk article. Let me lay out the real potential variables to consider for both possible outcomes that actually have a chance to generate order flow.

Yen Intervention will hold/successful

Variables to consider:

1. How many billions they are willing to commit to the intervention
2. The skill of the traders in the Ministry of Finance conducting the intervention and their knowledge of order flow and market sentiment and how to work the orders. (Probably low)
3. The pain tolerance should intervention result in paper losses of a few hundred pips on 10+ yards positions(Probably will grow), due to inadequate skill of those conducting the intervention and unfavorable market sentiment.
4. If the equity market rally and thus risk assets rally continues. If it does and people believe U.S. economic growth is going to accelerate and the FED signals an end to Quantitative Easing, and potential for interest rates to rise, then the carry trade could start to come back and people start buying USD/JPY. So if stocks keep rising it should help to support USD/JPY.
5. If the U.S or Europe join in with Japan to intervene.
6. How much short covering is left to take place.


Yen Intervention will fail

Variables to consider:

1. If Japan only intervenes in these 1 day actions and then decides to sit out a few weeks.
2. If the pain of the losses gets too deep for them and they are forced to withdraw from their intervention(Similar to Swiss National Bank situation)
3. If U.S/Europe voice serious concern over Japan's unilateral intervention, thus curtailing the voracity of the intervention.
4. If Global growth situation deteriorates further resulting in equity markets falling sharply, FED institutes Quantitative Easing Part 2, risk aversion grips the markets. If this happens the amount of Macro sellers coming in to sell USD/JPY will get really HUGE.
5. The equity market rallied 5% from Aug 31 until this week. Prior to the intervention yesterday USD/JPY actually was stuck in a range/went down, instead of the usual going up a bit with the equity markets. This could potentially be an ominous sign.



Which way is it going to go? I don't know but I will be watching the above variables/factors closely.

Hi grkfx

There are always 2 sides of the story (intervention).

More reports...

Japan's Solo Run on Yen Exposes Flaw in World Export Strategy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-recovery.html

FOREX-Yen creeps up, market jittery about intervention
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE68F04W20100916

Who knows?

Cheers

if yen got supported upto 86.80 its will touch it ever low and if there would be any intervention it might be at level 82.00