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AUD/USD

  • #23,001
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:34pm Sep 14, 2010 5:34pm
I think The turn date should be this Thursday or Friday.

AUD/USD should see consolidation before this week end.
  • #23,002
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:42pm Sep 14, 2010 5:42pm
That pig might not be so greasy.

I have to agree, I'm looking at this as a 5 wave move. Look out for that ABC correction to the fib retracement.

Short here.
  • #23,003
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:50pm Sep 14, 2010 5:50pm
like this..?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1284504110

..
  • #23,004
  • Sep 14, 2010 6:02pm Sep 14, 2010 6:02pm
i think is still going strong, hard to say, if QE is to be happen, .95 is an easy target.

good trading mate
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #23,005
  • Sep 14, 2010 7:08pm Sep 14, 2010 7:08pm
Quoting mfoste1
i think the gap was at 9266.....gaps get filled.

there was a gap in sp at 1109.62
Not on my platform, the low of monday was 9285..ain't filled
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #23,006
  • Sep 14, 2010 8:02pm Sep 14, 2010 8:02pm
Wow. I have to admit I never saw this coming. As some of you might know I no longer trade, I move money on fundamentals, but I like to come in here and shoot the shit you gentlemen on occassion. Last time I posted was prior to the election, and at that time I said Labor would win and the Aussie would come crashing down. I'd like to share with you this one snippet from WSJ.

"While second quarter economic growth data showed a strong rise in household consumption, the data is not matched by anecdotes from retailers, he said."

This is in complete agreement with what I'm seeing here on the ground. I am in Queensland however, and while the unemployment rate is, allegedly, very low throughout the country, here in QLD, it is 10+%, so I am also aware of my bias.

With all that in mind, I see large retailers closing shop, and many small retailers have closed shop, and not much has changed at all in terms of sentiment, and I get the very strong gut feeling that I'm seeing BS data out of Australia, just as much as I thought I was seeing BS numbers out of the US prior to me arriving here several years ago.

So apparently this huge tax the Labor party is going to put on commodities will not do anything to deter shipments out of the country, and one thing to bear in mind here is that the 3 largest miners have made a deal with the government, and they have just under two years to extract everything they can without taxation, which I believe is why you might be seeing a huge volume in the aussie. It's all about the mining here. If it wasnt for the mining, this would just be another banana republic.

Any thoughts are greatly appreciated.
  • #23,007
  • Sep 14, 2010 8:04pm Sep 14, 2010 8:04pm
Quoting worktowin
to be honest im looking for downward pressure i was hoping japan would take us down last night but it didnt happen so we might get some choppy price action, i want the dow to break thru and stay under 9837 aud should follow it down, i know this is aud usd but iv put a short out on the dow on two breaks below the 9837 mark and have been whipped out with a loss not good it hasent stayed down like the ftse 100, but im hoping it will and ill add to my short possition on the aud using the equities as a guide, id like to say stay short but who knows at...
One thing you might consider here is, if you're a Japanese investor, and you have a long term belief that the USD is going down, then you might place your money in AUD, which is a very popular destination for Japanese investment capital, probably 2nd choice to only USA.
  • #23,008
  • Sep 14, 2010 8:07pm Sep 14, 2010 8:07pm
Quoting BBPI_fxtrader
i just love the way this pair trades sometimes
I know this chart is limited in scope but based on what you've posted here, technically, it looks like a trend upward with a fibo correction, and where your bars stop is the trough of the correction. Seeing as this chart was posted weeks ago, perhaps it plays out this way? Could you post another chart with this segment in it?
  • #23,009
  • Sep 14, 2010 8:17pm Sep 14, 2010 8:17pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
This is in complete agreement with what I'm seeing here on the ground. I am in Queensland however, and while the unemployment rate is, allegedly, very low throughout the country, here in QLD, it is 10+%, so I am also aware of my bias.

With all that in mind, I see large retailers closing shop, and many small retailers have closed shop, and not much has changed at all in terms of sentiment, and I get the very strong gut feeling that I'm seeing BS data out of Australia, just as much as I thought I was seeing BS numbers out of the US prior to me arriving...
I strongly agree with you on the B.S. data. The governments are slapping crap on the numbers and then forcing the analyst's to lower expectations so as to make the new data look like a polished diamond. It irritates me that the investors, traders and hedge funds don't read through this crap and sell the s*** out of anything and everything!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #23,010
  • Sep 14, 2010 8:19pm Sep 14, 2010 8:19pm
Quoting domino
perhaps its the 7% debt to gdp .. the shear stability the ability for it to fight through economic cycles without printing free money at .25% creating huge boom and bust cycles using AET.. maybe its the fact that its a commodities based island whose dirt is red with all the iron mixed in with it.. and they cant load ships from china fast enough with the commodities and the rising prices due to huge demand = more revenues meaning stronger currencies... dunno tho its a mystery.
It's no doubt the factor. So apparently China is still humming along? Producing enough for domestic and foreign consumption to require the resources of Australia, even if the tax hike goes into place?

The other factor to consider is whether or not there's another huge crash on Wall Street, which was the primary factor for the AUD crashing from it's previous highs to about .63.

Whenever investors are required to pay out, for margin calls and the like, they have to sells assets, such as AUD. Or is it different this time?

And who knows whether or not there will be another crash. I'm still on the fence about that.
  • #23,011
  • Sep 14, 2010 8:30pm Sep 14, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting Forexfsa
A flaw in Goldman’s thesis


One reason Goldman expects the Fed to launch another round of QE:[indent]Goldman Sachs expects this to happen soon given the weakness in the U.S....
Traditionally, lower inventories is a positive indicator, as it indicates companies are moving (selling) product, whereas higher inventories would be negative, indicating nothing is moving (selling). So yeah, if I read you right, Goldman analysis doesn't make sense based solely on inventory.
  • #23,012
  • Sep 14, 2010 8:36pm Sep 14, 2010 8:36pm
Quoting MarcVUM
You and I are on the same page. We need to grab a beer one day! I too am short at 9400. The Aussie's don't want their currency to go to parity...they are exporters!
Bear that in mind when considering the only way out of a big debt hole for the USA, outside of raising taxes and cutting spending, is to increase the size of GDP by increasing immigration and exports. Killing the dollar would make US exports that arehigh tech and industrial, such as aviation (that not only produces big ticket items but employes hundreds of thousands) competitive in the global marketplace.

So it makes perfect sense for a Keynesian to piss away hundreds of billions if not trillions on programs like socialized health care. Not only do you get to take care of all your baby boomers into their golden years, you get to create a weak dollar that in turn makes your manufacturing base more competitive.

Australian don't manufacture jack shit. They simply extract coal and gold and other resources.
  • #23,013
  • Sep 15, 2010 1:19am Sep 15, 2010 1:19am
well here is my two cents since i was borne and live in Brisbane, and only trade aus/usd

As a long term trader and in that i mean minimum time frame for a closing trade is 4 weeks.
I see .94,93,92 as a perfect entry level for shorts.
Im now short .9330 and .9400 and still looking to add over the next few days. I have a strange feeling that the aus will have another short lived up hill run around the .94 level but then its time to put the bulls to sleep.

How ever if by the end of this week the aussie is still above .94 i will be back to the charts looking for new reasons to continue long! and by long i mean july 08 figures where it reached .98s

Have fun
  • #23,014
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:05am Sep 15, 2010 4:05am
If this level breaks then we are surely headed for the gap marked below it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd100915h1.gif Size: 16 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #23,015
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:27am Sep 15, 2010 5:27am
Quoting smikester
If this level breaks then we are surely headed for the gap marked below it.

Attachment

After gap filled, then...?

Buy or Sell ?

I was stopped out with my short and really dont know what happenned and what s going on.

Still stay out to watch

TKS
  • #23,016
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:35am Sep 15, 2010 5:35am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...t-markets.html
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #23,017
  • Sep 15, 2010 6:19am Sep 15, 2010 6:19am
Quoting smikester
If this level breaks then we are surely headed for the gap marked below it.

Attachment
Thats exactly the way I read it too. I scalped a short position with an avg price of just over .9400 and am letting it sit at breakeven + a few pips, looking for a large multi-week down move.

BTW my first post here, been a member on ET forever and had to find a new forum because I swear no one actually talks about trading there anymore.
  • #23,018
  • Sep 15, 2010 6:39am Sep 15, 2010 6:39am
Quoting bcblack
Thats exactly the way I read it too. I scalped a short position with an avg price of just over .9400 and am letting it sit at breakeven + a few pips, looking for a large multi-week down move.

BTW my first post here, been a member on ET forever and had to find a new forum because I swear no one actually talks about trading there anymore.
Welcome to FF!

I'm usually on the Nearly Naked (Simple Trades) thread. I hope to see you around!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #23,019
  • Sep 15, 2010 7:20am Sep 15, 2010 7:20am
Quoting bcblack
Thats exactly the way I read it too. I scalped a short position with an avg price of just over .9400 and am letting it sit at breakeven + a few pips, looking for a large multi-week down move.

BTW my first post here, been a member on ET forever and had to find a new forum because I swear no one actually talks about trading there anymore.

Thank you very much for sharring view

But, as usual, if it want to go down hard, it usually goes up to attract buying and to hunt stops of the short ?

and after filling gap, it usally resume the uptrend again ?

After being stopped out, i am so confused at the moment

TKS
  • #23,020
  • Sep 15, 2010 7:56am Sep 15, 2010 7:56am
Quoting FFBrian13
Maybe I'm trying to catch a greased pig here, but, anyone see an ending diagonal Wave 5. I'm looking at H4.
Yup. I've noticed it for a while. This manic rally since July is done with.
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