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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #74,801
  • Edited 11:46pm Sep 14, 2010 11:21pm | Edited 11:46pm
Quoting Pinbar
Wowwwwwwwwwwwww. This is an eye opener!


Jarroo, if this H4 closses above the 85, you are in?


I thought people would avoid such a bar.

Obviously, I am confused.

Its definitely an area to watch and wait for PA to develop, Pb . . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,802
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:26pm Sep 14, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting jarroo
Its definitely an area to watch and wait for PA to develp, Pb . . .

I hear you Jarroo.

I just was not aware of these gigantic bars as someone, maybe Ghous said, they avoid unusually large bars.


EDIT:

I am wondering if this injection by BOJ of buying Dollars is also showing an effect in this pair?
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  • #74,803
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:26pm Sep 14, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting Pinbar
Jarroo, if this H4 closses above the 85, you are in?


I thought people would avoid such a bar.

Obviously, I am confused.
I may be already in the 4 hour bar close . . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,804
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:31pm Sep 14, 2010 11:31pm
the BOJ is an exemplary example of a PATIENT trader.
they waited for the right moment.
& then BOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

in less than 4 hours:
gbpjpy 300+ pips
usdjpy 200+pips
eurjpy 260+ pips
xxxjpy 150+ pips

Awesome
  • #74,805
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:32pm Sep 14, 2010 11:32pm
Quoting Pinbar
I hear you Jarroo.

I just was not aware of these gigantic bars as someone, maybe Ghous said, they avoid unusually large bars.
That may be true . . .I'm sure ghous would ask for more information about the gigantic bar. . .is it a gigantic BEB at a swing low, at a swing High or in the middle of everything? Is it engulfing many bars or just a straight drop?, etc.

Gigantic Bars are great but more info is needed.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,806
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:37pm Sep 14, 2010 11:37pm
Quoting unlv_tj
These are CFD's, they are not actual Future Contracts. They were recently banned in the USA, so the govt. could interfer more in our lives and tell us how to invest our own money. Welcome to HOPE and CHANGE, LOL.
From what I understand, CFDs are illegal in the States because they are basically gambling products, which Americans seem strangely restrictive about (and I never really understood, since the people all seem pretty into it).

Should they be illegal? hard to say. They are generally considered a product used to target uninformed 'investors' and unconscionably take advantage of their position of disadvantage. More importantly, with the loose spreads, manipulated prices, lack of legal recourse and extortive interest rates (and policies - check the fine print on just how hard you get raped by CFD providers when they calculate your interest charges)... why would you want to use them?

Quoting unlv_tj
]So, if you want so many options to trade in the USA, you are probably going to need at least $20,000, if not even $50,000 to open up with a broker like Interactive Brokers, and trade Mini-future contracts for ~$2,000 a pop.
Nothing is stopping you from trading futures or equities on margin.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #74,807
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:38pm Sep 14, 2010 11:38pm
Quoting jarroo
I may be already in the 4 hour bar close . . .


What feed is that Jarroo?
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  • #74,808
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:41pm Sep 14, 2010 11:41pm
Quoting Pinbar
What feed is that Jarroo?

Alpari.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,809
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:52pm Sep 14, 2010 11:52pm
Quoting jarroo

This also goes for . . .and Mike may disagree with me . . .a PA formation made on a Friday due to profit taking or risk deduction or whatever. Just give me some high quality setups with strong locational confluences . . .
I don't disagree Jim, PA is PA, and it is the PA + story that ultimately defines every single trade I take as well. But friday can become part of that story.

ex uptrending market, friday comes and forms a small bearish pin, my mind immediately shifts to that nature of friday to add into that story. But the chart is the ultimate definer of when/when not to trade for sure
  • #74,810
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:52pm Sep 14, 2010 11:52pm
Quoting jarroo
I may be already in the 4 hour bar close . . .

This is interesting, If I switch to a H1 chart, the close of that H4 bar seems to be about the same.
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  • #74,811
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:55pm Sep 14, 2010 11:55pm
Quoting mbqb11
a rare trade for me at this time, but when the volatility is there(see bar size) then I am willing to partake.

If this was a different time of night I would probably hold.

huge BUOB, strong close above 130 BRN, massive divergence of price just exhausting. Daily pin.
sup Mike - are you saying you took the daily pin or the buob ?

Very frustrated i missed this one as its been a slow few weeks - getting in on the BOJ intervention always fun
  • #74,812
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:57pm Sep 14, 2010 11:57pm
Quoting pipmyride
sup Mike - are you saying you took the daily pin or the buob ?

Very frustrated i missed this one as its been a slow few weeks - getting in on the BOJ intervention always fun
I took the 1hr/4hr buob pip, the daily was trading into the 130 which I won't ever do personally

Best
Mike
  • #74,813
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:02am Sep 15, 2010 12:02am
Quoting mbqb11
I don't disagree Jim, PA is PA, and it is the PA + story that ultimately defines every single trade I take as well. But friday can become part of that story.

ex uptrending market, friday comes and forms a small bearish pin, my mind immediately shifts to that nature of friday to add into that story. But the chart is the ultimate definer of when/when not to trade for sure

Absolutely Mike. . . .its all part of the story .. . like high volatility during the Asain market .. lol

I think my key words were "high quality setups" . meaning you wouldn't take a small PB early Wednesday morning. But a big old outside bar at the 1.5000 on Friday NY Open would have you thinking . .right Mike?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,814
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:05am Sep 15, 2010 12:05am
Quoting jarroo
Absolutely Mike. . . .its all part of the story .. . like high volatility during the Asain market .. lol

I think my key words were "high quality setups" . meaning you wouldn't take a small PB early Wednesday morning. But a big old outside bar at the 1.5000 on Friday NY Open would have you thinking . .right Mike?
  • #74,815
  • Edited 12:27am Sep 15, 2010 12:06am | Edited 12:27am
Quoting bug
As Joel pointed out a few charts ago (here), the downtrend for the yield is about to break out. A breakout and a retest wouldn't surprise anyone around these levels, but the real question is, is risk appetite coming back? The yen and swissy have been appreciating for quite a while now. A return of risk appetite would certainly have me on the lookout for bearish price action of both of these pairs.
It's an interesting question, and not a straightforward one.

Credit spreads are tightening, fears about both corporate and sovereign default are receding (although Europe is still iffy), and you have alot of good news stories of late (I daresay Buffett didnt hurt the other day, either). So it certainly looks like that kind of shift is on the cards.

Anecdotally, we are also seeing the kind of money flow out of fixed instruments (hereafter: bonds) and into equities that we would expect. Assuming no more ZOMG PANIC incidents in the near future, it wouldnt be unreasonable to expect the money flow out of bonds to keep pushing the price down.

However, you also have the US gdp revised downwards, which pins rates down for a while longer. On one hand, that's going to act to limit the upside on yields. On the other, it is going to put more money into the economy (low rates -> borrowing -> investment -> GDP) which will (arguably) help (support) equity prices. Leading to more money flow out of bonds. Maybe.

Yields are very low, especially in the 10s - the implied inflation* is pretty unrealistic, and the 10/30 spread is very high. There is definitely plenty of downside to price.

(Then again, just to complicate things, Basel III could very likely lead to alot of institutions buying alot of bonds. Which throws a wrench in things.)

* Would you lend someone money for ten eyars at 2.7%, even if it was 100% secure? Now that the fears of deflation are largely past, you would expect future inflation to track through its usual range of 2-2.5%ish... and so the *real* return on your money is ridiculously low. These kinds of yields only make sense where inflation is very low (or negative). I feel like the market is in the voting machine/adding machine phase at the moment, and a shift back towards the adding machine end would push yields straight up.


Quoting bug
I'm not going to trust fundamentals over price action, to have them tell the same story, now that's something I like.
Exactly - use them together. I'm not a fan of wilfully ignoring information, especially when it is information used by the majority of the market. Charts are just a way of aggregating it. For some people though, the simplicity of just abstracting price works for them.

Horses, courses and all that
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #74,816
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:07am Sep 15, 2010 12:07am
Quoting jarroo
I agree with joel .. is all part of the market.


I really don't care about the Who, What, Where or When of how a quality PA setup is formed. Its all part of what makes up Price Action in the market.

Give me a big BUOB or BEOB, off a BRN PPZ level, at a swing High or Low. . . . I don't care how (or who) formed it . . .I'm taking it.

This also goes for . . .and Mike may disagree with me . . .a PA formation made on a Friday due to profit taking or risk deduction or whatever. Just give me some high quality setups with strong locational confluences...
Thank you Jaroo. Today looks like an interesting day.. hopefully, this will trigger some trending market for the next couple of months.
  • #74,817
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:11am Sep 15, 2010 12:11am
Quoting cprao
Thank you Jaroo. Today looks like an interesting day.. hopefully, this will trigger some trending market for the next couple of months.



From my Humble newbie point of view, I am not sure about that.

Is it possible that the LO is going to see this turnaround and bite the BOJ in the butt? I mean, could the BOJ action be construed as clasping at straws?

By which time Jarroo has already cashed in his chips and is probably done for the month.
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  • #74,818
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:12am Sep 15, 2010 12:12am
Quoting cprao
Thank you Jaroo. Today looks like an interesting day.. hopefully, this will trigger some trending market for the next couple of months.

Only time will tell . . .but more like consolidation, trending , consolidation, consolidation, trending, consolidation . . .

Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,819
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:14am Sep 15, 2010 12:14am
Quoting jarroo
Only time will tell . . .but more like consolidation, trending , consolidation, consolidation, trending, consolidation . . .


Nothing new then?

Just off to join the PF. I was waiting for Jim to reply after his email.

Hopefully, I will be able to get the Pinbar user name.


Mike & Jarroo, if you know something I don't, please shout.
  • #74,820
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:18am Sep 15, 2010 12:18am
Quoting Pinbar
No, I passed on it as I did not like how the next candle closed above the 0.7285
It was a good decision.
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