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No more BS - What have you learned?

  • #261
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:57pm Sep 14, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting CindyXXXX

I dunno I think they're as important as each other I mean once you exit a trade you are essentially opening the opposite side to you original trade anyway

Bingo.
  • #262
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:01pm Sep 14, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting ha-pattern
What happens when one enters a trade with one reason, and leaves enough of the chart not understood so that, during the trade, a reason for a trade in the opposite direction appears? The exit then has value in making more money overall.
Maybe I was a bit unclear, I don't think exit is non-important but for me [or to my genetic algos by the way] at least it's much easier to find good exits when the entry is good than vice versa. Therefore for me personally a good entry is much more important than a good exit.

I would even claim (for my trading at least) that entry is what defines your money-making possibility, exit is the parameter that you can use to get as much profit as possible. With bad/random entries you can squeeze some profit or lessen the loss with good exits but the real profits are only available when the correct type of entry is coupled with correct type of exit and (this is strictly IMHO as before) systematic exits with good results at least are much easier to find than good entries.

(I could go into deeper detail on how I try to separate and simplify edges as far as possible because it's very relevant to the above but I think that would go too far into details)
  • #263
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:39pm Sep 14, 2010 1:39pm
Isn't it transparently obvious that both entry & exit are important, sure, exits are important for taking profits appropriately, but if your just going to enter randomly then basically your just going to be sitting around with your ass hanging out until you're either saved by volatility or the market 'coming back'. There maybe some clever way of turning random entries into a positive expectation system, but I've never seen it, what I would be more keen to call out as BS is folks who take profit based on 'feelings', that's just classic 'fooled by randomness'.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #264
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:14pm Sep 14, 2010 2:14pm
It is an all-about-Do-It-Yourself game.
  • #265
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:15pm Sep 14, 2010 3:15pm
RANDOM,
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #266
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:19pm Sep 14, 2010 3:19pm
RANDOM,

Yes the market is random because there are to many variables to consider and unknowns, but momentum works "A object in motion generally remains in motion" thats about all we've got to work with here, where it'll stop ?? impossible to say, ride it, exit when its time doesn't get easier than that.

But the higher the TF the more randomness your subjecting yourself to as your after bigger moves, not the other way around which is preached in here.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #267
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:32pm Sep 14, 2010 3:32pm
It is when you place your entry and where you place your exits (SL & TP) that matter.

My research shows that the probability distribution already been determined the moment we choose our entry and profitability is depends on how we place our exits.
  • #268
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:36pm Sep 14, 2010 3:36pm
I define a good trade with a good entry and a good exit. A bad entry with a lucky bounce and a good exit is a bad trade. Likewise a good entry with a horrible not following the plan exit is also a bad trade.

When luck has to come into the equation to make you a profitable trader you will lose in the long run. Not following the plan you set is also a recipe for disaster. If you're not following the plan then the question is why?

Change your plan if it doesn't fit your trading style. Is your stoploss setting too close? Are your profit expectations too high? Is the method you're using flawed and really not producing the desired results? Is the gambler side of your brain in conflict with your common sense side. This will get you into bad trades but then the fear of loss comes over you and you bail out of the trade quickly. This is the most common lose your whole account style of trading.

Don't be in a hurry to lose all your money. The market takes no prisoners and has no conscience. Entering into a losing trade is always your idea and nobody but you can be blamed for your stupidity. If ignorance is the factor that keeps you from winning then fix it. It is always your choice to stay uneducated and uninformed.

You may think Lady luck is by your side but this is a just fool's line of thinking. Trading the Forex market is a very serious business and if you choose to play and treat it like a casino then it will take your money just as fast as the Golden Nugget crap tables.

Happy trading or gambling which ever you choose,

Johnny
  • #269
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:42pm Sep 14, 2010 3:42pm
There is no such thing as LUCK!!.

Yes I've lost 12 trades in a row, but only cause I was repeating the same mistake hoping to get lucky just once, basically trying to pick a bottom, it's against the trend and the odds are there will always be another bottom.

Ofcourse 12 trades in a row and not 1 turned in my favour, I guess there is such a thing as BAD LUCK!! ( not really all me being stupid.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #270
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:43pm Sep 14, 2010 3:43pm
I also learn that withdrawing some profits regularly help tremendously in my trading mindset. It's not profit if it's sitting in your account.
  • #271
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:57pm Sep 14, 2010 3:57pm
Johnny that is some good words to live buy, luck and wishful thinking are account drainers, I played the penny market for a long enough time to know go with the momo. Forex is a lot about trending, which way is the trade going on the charts, how pairs work against each other, news and more. I am very green to forex and trade in a demo account and know how to read a chart without drawing lots of lines (though it helps), I know candles and learning to see supply and demand, finding bottoms and tops and knowing when it's a consolidation and when it's a reversal. I am learning everyday and the hours I put in on trading in front of L2s, Charts, Forums, News, etc equal in the years. Though I am still a student I think the most important part of my trading is making sure there is no red flag news coming on a pair, trade during busy hours, go with the trend, practice, practice, practice. In other words if anyone is losing more then they are winning then go back to a demo account and get the wiggles out.
  • #272
  • Sep 14, 2010 4:32pm Sep 14, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Tell me what you've learnt in your trading experience

I'm talking about everything BUT the entry and strategy side of things

Yea yea patience and all that... give me something new

What have you REALLY learnt - ?
Cindy, thanks for starting this thread. It's been fun reading the posts to hear other perspectives on trading. IMHO, Dopey's early post is my favorite.

Here is what I have learned: 1.) Bankers/Brokers (the guys who control the FOREX) are opportunistic, and are making money no matter which direction the market is moving right now. 2.) Bankers/Brokers will always have open positions going both directions but rarely book a loss on a position. 3.) Wrapping your mind around point 1 and 2 is important to making TA work for you, and knowing when to rely on TA in trading. 4.) Most retail traders do not have the same size book that the Bankers/Brokers have, so its important to trade with stops as we follow them around the charts. 5.) If you understand point 1 and 2, then PA will seem less random to you when you begin to see the results of the processes that the Bankers/Brokers are using. 6.) IMHO, the key to success is, do you have the balls (my friend fti refers to them as balls of steel) to follow these guys around as trading opportunities develop?

Good trading everyone!
  • #273
  • Sep 14, 2010 4:56pm Sep 14, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting EricF
Johnny that is some good words to live buy, luck and wishful thinking are account drainers, I played the penny market for a long enough time to know go with the momo....
Eric,

You have the right attitude and with that mindset a profitable trader will emerge someday. You my friend will never want for money. Just keep the slow pace and constant learning and one day you will see that moment where everything comes together and your confidence in your trading skills and ability reaches the pinnacle.

Before that happens you will come to many obstacles lying in your path and threatening your success. Only the strong willed survive the precipitous climb to the top. You will have despair and depression knocking at your door many times and only your inner strength will shut them out.

The Naysayers abound and those closest to you will doubt your sanity. It will be in these lowest of lows that you will find the answers to your success and build the foundation for your future. None of this will be easy as each brick in this foundation must be placed by you thorough your hard work and the sweat on your brow.

The road is not paved and the ride is not smooth but you seem to know this already so you're way ahead of the crowd of wannabes not wishing to exert themselves. The rewards are many but the journey is the part that you will always remember with pride. I wish you well on this journey for it is a journey worth taking.

Good Luck,

Johnny
  • #274
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:12pm Sep 14, 2010 5:12pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
In my opinion, if your edge involves following trends then the exit is most important. If your edge involves some quick volatility then the entry is most important. If your edge involves both then you can weight it appropriately.
  • #275
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:18pm Sep 14, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting Turveyd
There is no such thing as LUCK!!
Yes there is! Happens every time you make money trading.
  • #276
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:19pm Sep 14, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting ForexQuant
It is when you place your entry and where you place your exits (SL & TP) that matter.

My research shows that the probability distribution already been determined the moment we choose our entry and profitability is depends on how we place our exits.
Please elaborate on your research if you are permitted to do so.
  • #277
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:24pm Sep 14, 2010 5:24pm
Quoting tjfxtrader
Yes there is! Happens every time you make money trading.

No that'll be random chance!!

Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #278
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:30pm Sep 14, 2010 5:30pm
Quoting Czech
In my opinion, if your edge involves following trends then the exit is most important. If your edge involves some quick volatility then the entry is most important. If your edge involves both then you can weight it appropriately.

Both are equally important, without both being good.

Options :-

1. Poor entry - Poor Exit = immediate large loss.
2. Good Entry - No Exit = odds are your SL will be eventually hit.
3. Good Entry - Poor Exit = your profit reduced on the potential or allowed to fall back to hit SL again.
4. Poor Entry - Good exit = Small Loss but still a loss, holding and waiting is a poor exit.
5. Good Entry - Good Exit = Straight into profit most of the time and reasonible return for your risk.

The 1 without the other is pointless.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #279
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:39pm Sep 14, 2010 5:39pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Quoting Turveyd
Both are equally important, without both being good.

Options :-

1. Poor entry - Poor Exit = immediate large loss.
2. Good Entry - No Exit = odds are your SL will be eventually hit.
3. Good Entry - Poor Exit = your profit reduced on the potential or allowed to fall back to hit SL again.
4. Poor Entry - Good exit = Small Loss but still a loss, holding and waiting is a poor exit.
5. Good Entry - Good Exit = Straight into profit most of the time and reasonible return for your risk.

The 1 without the other is pointless.
I disagree.

I'm not suggesting that the counter part is random or even poor. I don't know why thats being considered. I'm just talking about where the edge lies.

If you enter based on a trend following system, i'm assuming its in the direction of the trend not a "poor" direction. Your exit is most important because you need to make the best guess at when the trend is over before everyone else figures it out and that retracement turns into a loss.

If you entered based on quick volatility then i'm assuming that you're exiting once that volatility is realized. The entry was most important because it put you in front of the volatility.
  • #280
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:51pm Sep 14, 2010 5:51pm
Quoting kingfisher

To start putting successful trades, i had to take a step back and learn more about brain- How neurons and synapses work inside the brain to make who we are
Interesting KF

Do you know any good resources on this?
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