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No more BS - What have you learned?

  • #241
  • Sep 13, 2010 10:56pm Sep 13, 2010 10:56pm
Quoting capitalist88
Isn't an exit strategy just an entry strategy for a flat position?
I personally haven't had an entry strategy for a flat position in quite some time.
tfflyer may feel differently "As soon as i feel exciting" he will do it.

Johnny
  • #242
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:08pm Sep 13, 2010 11:08pm
Quoting hilmy83
yup! but i find that i can predict the 'strike' price much better. So my entries are pretty much random. But once i'm well into profit, i can see zones where price will gravitate towards. It's like reverse trading.
hilmy83,

Is this what is known as Phenomenological Reality Trading?



Is this trading naked and are there drugs involved in the seeing the ZONE? Random entries usually get random results.

Each his own,

Johnny
  • #243
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:21am Sep 14, 2010 12:21am
I have learned one secret which builds any kind of skill human beings want-

There are 100 billion neurons connected with 1000 trillion synapses in the brain. Brain is the most powerful PC in the entire universe.

Learning, memory and skill development happens when neurons and synapses undergo a change called brain plasticity.

Are traders making their own trading journal, revising the journals, learning trades, memorizing them, revising them- Are traders doing what doctors, engineers, accountants do to learn their profession?
  • #244
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:16am Sep 14, 2010 2:16am
Quoting kingfisher
I have learned one secret which builds any kind of skill human beings want-

There are 100 billion neurons connected with 1000 trillion synapses in the brain. Brain is the most powerful PC in the entire universe.

Learning, memory and skill development happens when neurons and synapses undergo a change called brain plasticity.

Are traders making their own trading journal, revising the journals, learning trades, memorizing them, revising them- Are traders doing what doctors, engineers, accountants do to learn their profession?
thanks
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #245
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:17am Sep 14, 2010 3:17am
Quoting hilmy83
I think this thread should at least focus on the lessons of exiting. This is THE MOST important part of trading. But..we instead focus on philosophical bullshit
Okay.. Now this is what I actually think is typical BS on forums.

I'm not goint to go deep into this subject but entry is the point where the trader decides to take the risk and risk her money. If the entry is selected badly the trader is risking her money for nothing, ie. random movement or worse. If the entry is selected wisely, the trade will be much more time (if not all the time) in positive territory than negative and therefore the exit is also easier.

The main point being: Your entry also defines how you should exit. Therefore exit is not even nearly as important as entry.
  • #246
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:41am Sep 14, 2010 3:41am
Quoting mikkom
Okay.. Now this is what I actually think is typical BS on forums.

I'm not goint to go deep into this subject but entry is the point where the trader decides to take the risk and risk her money. If the entry is selected badly the trader is risking her money for nothing, ie. random movement or worse. If the entry is selected wisely, the trade will be much more time (if not all the time) in positive territory than negative and therefore the exit is also easier.

The main point being: Your entry also defines how you should exit. Therefore exit is...
I was going to right a similar reply mikkom but I had a think about it and I guess one could argue that a trade is determined by the exit

If you DO enter at a random place and you can quickly acknoledge it and close (exit) before any damage is done etc

I dunno I think they're as important as each other I mean once you exit a trade you are essentially opening the opposite side to you original trade anyway

I think it would be one of those debates that go around in circles
Time hides Nothing
  • #247
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:48am Sep 14, 2010 3:48am
Quoting hilmy83
I think this thread should at least focus on the lessons of exiting. This is THE MOST important part of trading. But..we instead focus on philosophical bullshit
Without a beginning there is no end, therefore, the entry must be at least as important as the exit. You may think your entries are random, but they're not. You see your edge in your exit, but it's your entry that got you there. It's also far easier to profit with a great entry versus an average one. The entry is the first decision of the trade, and a good decision will make subsequent decisions easier, and allow more room for error. Many will suggest that it's knowing when to take your money off the table that is important, but you can't do that without first making the money.
  • #248
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:52am Sep 14, 2010 3:52am




Quoting JohnnyBSmart
I personally haven't had an entry strategy for a flat position in quite some time.
tfflyer may feel differently "As soon as i feel exciting" he will do it.

Johnny
  • #249
  • Sep 14, 2010 4:46am Sep 14, 2010 4:46am
Quoting mikkom
I'm not goint to go deep into this subject but entry is the point where the trader decides to take the risk and risk her money. If the entry is selected badly the trader is risking her money for nothing, ie. random movement or worse. If the entry is selected wisely, the trade will be much more time (if not all the time) in positive territory than negative and therefore the exit is also easier.

The main point being: Your entry also defines how you should exit. Therefore exit is not even nearly as important as entry.....
No.
Price hovers the majority of the time in drawdown, then dips once and speedily into price. The trade is still wise, because the original reason worked: The one powerful reason influences the entry-exit area enough to cancel the issue of having a significant lack of understanding of the rest of the chart (that is, much of the chart being "random".)
Why be worried if price is near exit? So long as it gets there. There's almost no way I could know what's easier or more difficult for the chart, much less control it. I can only know for some of an area or for a short time what the chart is likely to do.
  • #250
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:33am Sep 14, 2010 5:33am
Quoting ha-pattern
No.
Price hovers the majority of the time in drawdown, then dips once and speedily into price. The trade is still wise, [..]
In the example above are assuming that at some point price does go speedily into positive territory. If you know this happens then you definitely have not selected a random point, you have selected a point where this happens more than not.

The exit is then selected according to the entry (or vice versa but you still have rules to your entry and therefore it is not random at all) exactly as I said before.
  • #251
  • Sep 14, 2010 8:10am Sep 14, 2010 8:10am
Quote
thanks

Glad to know an experienced trader like you agree with me.

I tell each and every trader try to study functioning of brain to understand how you learned language, communication, professional skills, driving etc !

With one year of structured specialist training, neurons and synapses inside the brain will create trading pathways and one can start to make successful trades.

It is an irony that 95% of traders who fail do not actually learn and memorize trading patterns just like we learn and memorize (application and understanding) our subjects in school/college.

To start putting successful trades, i had to take a step back and learn more about brain- How neurons and synapses work inside the brain to make who we are
  • #252
  • Edited 9:13am Sep 14, 2010 8:59am | Edited 9:13am
Quoting kingfisher
Glad to know an experienced trader like you agree with me.

I tell each and every trader try to study functioning of brain to understand how you learned language, communication, professional skills, driving etc !

With one year of structured specialist training, neurons and synapses inside the brain will create trading pathways and one can start to make successful trades.

It is an irony that 95% of traders who fail do not actually learn and memorize trading patterns just like we learn and memorize (application and understanding) our subjects...
in twenty or thirty years you can call me an experienced trader. i am and probably will forever be a student of the markets, about human behaviour. humanity itself is constantly evolving, there will be unforeseen events, new technologies, change in politics, i can see no end to it.
once you arrived at a new level it is too comfortable to lay back and forget the attitude that brought you to this state in the first place. the curiosity, the will to understand, to learn.
what you've described is the cultivation of learning through discipline and conditioning of the neurons, feedback is an important part of it and accelerates the process of learning. not so the search for yet another system, for opinion of others, but the conscious focus on your own decision making process and the results from your behaviour.

in other words: remember what you've learned through repetition and keep your eye on the ball.
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #253
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:16am Sep 14, 2010 9:16am
Quoting mikkom
The main point being: Your entry also defines how you should exit. Therefore exit is not even nearly as important as entry.
Lets assume you have a simple system. You enter at random, and exit at random some time later.

Now we develop 2 variations.

In variation 1, you are allowed to modify the entry, but the exit is still random.
In variation 2, the entry is still random, but you are allowed to modify the exit.

Given those 2, options, which will provide the greatest opportunity to improve the systems expectancy. (If you dont like the word random, substitute it for your favourite indicator or price pattern)
  • #254
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:29am Sep 14, 2010 9:29am
Quoting Razzle
Lets assume you have a simple system. You enter at random, and exit at random some time later.

Now we develop 2 variations.

In variation 1, you are allowed to modify the entry, but the exit is still random.
In variation 2, the entry is still random, but you are allowed to modify the exit.

Given those 2, options, which will provide the greatest opportunity to improve the systems expectancy. (If you dont like the word random, substitute it for your favourite indicator or price pattern)
Option 2 at least for me. Because my accuracy with predicting where the TP will hit is higher than having profitable entry.
I feel like i'm speakin in circles
  • #255
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:31am Sep 14, 2010 9:31am
Quoting silverheat
in twenty or thirty years you can call me an experienced trader. i am and probably will forever be a student of the markets, about human behaviour. humanity itself is constantly evolving, there will be unforeseen events, new technologies, change in politics, i can see no end to it.
once you arrived at a new level it is too comfortable to lay back and forget the attitude that brought you to this state in the first place. the curiosity, the will to understand, to learn.
what you've described is the cultivation of learning through discipline and conditioning...
individuals are painfully unpredictable, but people are easily predictable...something like that right?
  • #256
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:37am Sep 14, 2010 9:37am
Quoting mikkom
In the example above are assuming that at some point price does go speedily into positive territory. If you know this happens then you definitely have not selected a random point, you have selected a point where this happens more than not.

The exit is then selected according to the entry (or vice versa but you still have rules to your entry and therefore it is not random at all) exactly as I said before.
Alright, well the way you put it, the chart motion had to be close to the exit for most of the time the trade is held, in order to be valid. I get what you're saying a little more, now.


Quoting mikkom
The main point being: Your entry also defines how you should exit. Therefore exit is not even nearly as important as entry.
What happens when one enters a trade with one reason, and leaves enough of the chart not understood so that, during the trade, a reason for a trade in the opposite direction appears? The exit then has value in making more money overall.
A reason to trade is separate from the value of that trade, in that intervening opportunities over the hold of that trade change its relative value.
The entry may have chosen the exit, initially; then, the exit itself chooses a new entry, because of the greater net value.

Anyway, I guess my point is, the importance of an entry vs. that of an exit can be weighted differently, according to how one trades.
  • #257
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:43am Sep 14, 2010 9:43am
Quoting hilmy83
individuals are painfully unpredictable, but people are easily predictable...something like that right?
whatever the crowd holds together, you know crowds and power?
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #258
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:16am Sep 14, 2010 11:16am
Quote
in twenty or thirty years you can call me an experienced trader. i am and probably will forever be a student of the markets, about human behaviour. humanity itself is constantly evolving, there will be unforeseen events, new technologies, change in politics, i can see no end to it.
once you arrived at a new level it is too comfortable to lay back and forget the attitude that brought you to this state in the first place. the curiosity, the will to understand, to learn.
what you've described is the cultivation of learning through discipline and...

Well said. Repetition is the sexiest word...repetition makes everything possible.
  • #259
  • Edited 12:47pm Sep 14, 2010 11:52am | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting Razzle
Lets assume you have a simple system. You enter at random, and exit at random some time later.

Now we develop 2 variations.

In variation 1, you are allowed to modify the entry, but the exit is still random.
In variation 2, the entry is still random, but you are allowed to modify the exit.

Given those 2, options, which will provide the greatest opportunity to improve the systems expectancy. (If you dont like the word random, substitute it for your favourite indicator or price pattern)
I don't believe either version is good enough so sorry I cannot answer this (*.

My point is that by selecting the entry at some point you also select the territory you expose your exit system to. I personally couldn't randomize either if I would like to get decent results.

*) With one exception: I think one of the problems with exit/entry discussion is that you can implement almost any kind of system (with some added random variance) with random entries and very complex exit system (same applies to money management and entries by the way) but you [usually] cannot model the same system by using random exits and defined entries. If we are talking this kind of possibility then I would agree that 2 is better option but it's still nowhere near defined entry with defined exit.
  • #260
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:52pm Sep 14, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting hilmy83
yup! but i find that i can predict the 'strike' price much better. So my entries are pretty much random. But once i'm well into profit, i can see zones where price will gravitate towards. It's like reverse trading.
Got it. It's not about "where will it go from here," but more about "where will it be eventually."
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