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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #18,841
  • Sep 11, 2010 10:57pm Sep 11, 2010 10:57pm
Quoting piccolo
where is this euro strength coming from?
Thats what Im wondering!
  • #18,842
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:22am Sep 12, 2010 3:22am
Thinking Trading is hard?
want to quit (any endeavor)?

here's a very inspiring video
Inserted Video
  • #18,843
  • Sep 12, 2010 8:20pm Sep 12, 2010 8:20pm
Hows people doing here after the weekend....

V
  • #18,844
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:33pm Sep 12, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Hows people doing here after the weekend....

V
making great pips on the euro rally, vic
Expect more in the works.
Now squared
No bias.
Dance the music only.
Fundementally still same, ground same.
Liquidity sporadic.
still looking forward to boj actions ahead.
if market dares force hand , we will see bloody battles.


regards
  • #18,845
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:35pm Sep 12, 2010 10:35pm
Quoting fti
making great pips on the euro rally, vic
Expect more in the works.
Now squared
No bias.
Dance the music only.

regards
CHief...

ia m jsut wathcing this UJ... made some pip long side... and now stuck in rescue.......


so watching and listening the song and actaully dancing on the floor...

V
  • #18,846
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:37pm Sep 12, 2010 10:37pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
CHief...

ia m jsut wathcing this UJ... made some pip long side... and now stuck in rescue.......


so watching and listening the song and actaully dancing on the floor...

V
there is no song now vic
its lunch in tokyo.
looking for retracement possibilities
if in rescue mode,
you size and bullets must compliment strategy.
generally retrace too shallow.
prefer deeper retest for supports.
Need know whats the paper moods in frankfurt.
Then london.

Its difficult situation for boj, there's much call options awaiting.
A run push will only attract profittaking in hords


regards
  • #18,847
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:39pm Sep 12, 2010 10:39pm
Quoting fti
there is no song now vic
its lunch in tokyo.
looking for retracement possibilities
if in rescue mode,
you size and bullets must compliment strategy.

regards
agreed chief..


i am very nimble...

V

Chief how u knos this...

Its difficult situation for boj, there's much call options awaiting.

PS: BTW i am actually dancing in my home and listening some music and dancing actaully...it feels good to dance once in a while in real...
  • #18,848
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:48pm Sep 12, 2010 10:48pm
Quoting fti
please do not ask me questions , that you know there is no way i can reveal the answers to.
Anyway it has no bearing to the dance.
I am just giving you a little read on market sentiments for you make better judgement.

Generally, what i can tell you is keep your ears on the ground and you will see this relaeased stbtly in reports.

regards

Got it.....


V
  • #18,849
  • Edited 11:09pm Sep 12, 2010 10:51pm | Edited 11:09pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Got it.....


V
Generally, what i can tell you is keep your ears on the ground and you will see this relaeased stbtly in reports.
From experience, i read, if market insist test boj resolved, they will only get bloodied nose for it.
Everyone has in some ways seek safe harbour in yen.
and this ship is getting very over loaded and can die of overweight.

Note also that the market is thin and sporadic. Also that we had not being in trend mode for sometime already. And that CBs are asking for stability. So no sudden impulse is welcome. But because of thiness, range can be wide and wild.

Also that the biggest cost to the currency calls, is time.
If range persist, options become depreciating assets.
  • #18,850
  • Sep 13, 2010 12:15am Sep 13, 2010 12:15am
Quoting fti
Generally, what i can tell you is keep your ears on the ground and you will see this relaeased stbtly in reports.
From experience, i read, if market insist test boj resolved, they will only get bloodied nose for it.
Everyone has in some ways seek safe harbour in yen.
and this ship is getting very over loaded and can die of overweight.

Note also that the market is thin and sporadic. Also that we had not being in trend mode for sometime already. And that CBs are asking for stability. So no sudden impulse is welcome. But because of thiness, range...

I take your word chief.....

i think i need to have those experience too.. now enjoying UJ .....moved 6 pips in one hour...so much money to make in this...

V
  • #18,851
  • Sep 13, 2010 1:33am Sep 13, 2010 1:33am
Good Morning Friends,

a new week so new opportunities will show.
Be prepared to catch them ;-)

Just entered my trading room and have to do my chart work first.
Seems there is some action in the markets.
May be motivated by the finalising of Basel III agreement in europe (Some rule for European banks in respect of captitalisation and heandling credit lines tec ...).

Wish you all the best!

MaMood
  • #18,852
  • Edited 4:47am Sep 13, 2010 4:32am | Edited 4:47am
see now much volatility premiums and time premiums had been lost.
battle stations at ny, nothing here.
all the new euro economic forecast, market seems not believe.
EU Commission forecasts 2010 euro zone GDP growth 1.7% compared +0.9%.EU GDP growth forecast +1.8% from previous +1.0%.German growth forecast 3.4% from previous +1.2%.
But have no reactions from market. If anything double dip recession possibility in GB weighing on markets.
BOJ possibilities comes back into picture.
Lets see.

& keep eye on the Naoto Kan and Ichiro Ozawa power scuffle in nihon.
  • #18,853
  • Edited Sep 14, 2010 12:04am Sep 13, 2010 10:56am | Edited Sep 14, 2010 12:04am
Any news going around for UJ....????



V

PS: anyone got news whats going in japan......
  • #18,854
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:26am Sep 14, 2010 1:26am
Good Morning Friends!

Hey what's up?
It's a little bit quiet in here.
Are you all so busy with trading?

Hope you are doing well.

CU,
MaMood
  • #18,855
  • Edited 2:08am Sep 14, 2010 1:44am | Edited 2:08am
Hi,

Kan has won.
Yen rises widely!!

Cool action ;-)

edit: Half an hour later it seemed like it was a knee jerk reaction only.
was riding the vola and have to wait now, where my lady wants to go ...
  • #18,856
  • Sep 14, 2010 4:02am Sep 14, 2010 4:02am
Hi again,

have finnished my trading for this very volatile London session.

Have attached my blotter again.
Have traded the flow, means I was trading the short and the long side of my Lady USDJPY.
It is once again not a very nice or beautiful blotter, but it can show you that theses actions are tradeable and that you have to do view the charts only to feel/see the next impulse.
I have missed the first move down, cause I was doing my chartwork at that time to prepare my trading. But after that I was just observing my lady very closely and additionaly AUDJPY,EURUSD,GBPUSD,DOW and Gold to see what the market was thinking about that Japaneses voting for MP Kan.
With some experience you have a good understanding what the masses will do with such a market and how fear and greed will control their decision ...

To make it short: Do not think to much about BOJ interventions and the political influences of such a voting.
Just trade the market.
But be very very nimble, when caught on the wrong side ;-)

CU,
MaMood
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-09-14_LondonSession.pdf   22 KB | 465 downloads
  • #18,857
  • Sep 14, 2010 7:25am Sep 14, 2010 7:25am
US news ahead.
Stay nimble!
  • #18,858
  • Sep 14, 2010 7:53am Sep 14, 2010 7:53am
Quoting MaMood
US news ahead.
Stay nimble!
Most intriguing data - the new release came all new pink and shiny, however the old one got revised to a much worst then announced back then values. Seems market's not very happy about this either. This only brings the question in my head - is anything else then POMO going to keep the US indexes in green when good news turn out to be bad news a week later?

Worth having a look at as well:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mor...riance-swap-tr

Regards
S
  • #18,859
  • Sep 14, 2010 6:01pm Sep 14, 2010 6:01pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

have finnished my trading for this very volatile London session.

Have attached my blotter again.
Have traded the flow, means I was trading the short and the long side of my Lady USDJPY.
It is once again not a very nice or beautiful blotter, but it can show you that theses actions are tradeable and that you have to do view the charts only to feel/see the next impulse.
I have missed the first move down, cause I was doing my chartwork at that time to prepare my trading. But after that I was just observing my lady very closely and additionaly...
MaMood

Firstly, thanks very much for your generosity in providing your blotter. Now that I am managing to get a better feel for the markets using fti's method I thought I might look a little closer into your MO. I can see the importance of checking out other pairs to see how that affects the pair being traded and of course keeping up with the latest developments politically and financially, but I was just wondering about how the gold price and the Dow inform your thinking? I would also be interested to know how regularly you check these prices and from where you get your info.

Thanks again for your blotter, it puts a very interesting perspective on things.

Rob
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #18,860
  • Edited 8:13pm Sep 14, 2010 6:36pm | Edited 8:13pm
Quoting piphop
MaMood

Firstly, thanks very much for your generosity in providing your blotter. Now that I am managing to get a better feel for the markets using fti's method I thought I might look a little closer into your MO. I can see the importance of checking out other pairs to see how that affects the pair being traded and of course keeping up with the latest developments politically and financially, but I was just wondering about how the gold price and the Dow inform your thinking? I would also be interested to know how regularly you check these prices...
He's commented on the Dow and gold but a good idea would be to search his posts if you're interested here is one post talking about the dow...

CU,
MaMood

For the last 45 minutes DOW is leading USDJPY/EURjpy perfectly.
Using DOW as a "preindication" I managed to make another 1500 EUR.

It'sall about watching naked charts and listen to the music/PA ....

Will call it a day now.

Wish you all the best!!!

CU,
MaMood


Gold:

"
Quote:
Originally Posted by luSan http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Gold is up $9...so dollar weak?


Hi luSan,

difficult to say. Some signs from the data arround ...

- Dow future is going down -> $ weakness
- Oil is testing yesterday high -> $ weakness
- gold is up $9 -> $ weakness
- EUR and GBP near yesterday high -> $ weakness

But that are kinds of predictions - aren't they?

I just try get in tune with current PA on USDJPY ...
"
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