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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #18,561
  • Aug 30, 2010 12:03am Aug 30, 2010 12:03am
Quoting mijamoto
FTI u think now its over of boosting yen value by speculators as BOJ took it serious, or still party is not over yet. Otherwise ppl enjoy week ahead and earn some pips
Something is really bothering me.
Seems there are youngsters reading this thread.

I want stress strongly again.


WARNING !!!
-----------
Remember that retail forex is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

This is especially so for minors who have not made their risk capital from chosen careers and or are still dependents for financial support.

This is also so for inmatured persons or people of unsound risk appetites.

No individual should risk moneys they need for living in this risk endeavors.

Risk taking is a very specialised venture, and people must think carefully of the possible consequences of their actions.

regards
  • #18,562
  • Edited 12:34am Aug 30, 2010 12:17am | Edited 12:34am
BOJ is serious.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=253446

The Bank of Japan expanded its fund supply tool at an emergency meeting on Monday, saving more aggressive steps for when there is clearer evidence of a slowdown in a fragile economy hit by a strong yen.

ie..Force us and we will deal with you?

but this should say all that need be said.

"Bernanke Faces Skepticism on Policy Tools, May Need Fiscal Aid"

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=253459

regards
  • #18,563
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:19am Aug 30, 2010 9:19am
Has BOJ lost the steam or people dont care anymore....or is it a silence before a storm...
  • #18,564
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:45am Aug 30, 2010 9:45am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Has BOJ lost the steam or people dont care anymore....or is it a silence before a storm...
Hey V,
I think they were waiting to see if any big sharks try to attack them hard. At this point they are taking the heat but with the Swap lines to the FED still open they will leave no prisoners should they start shooting.

While on the CBs subject... oh my isn't today a bad day to be managing the SNB ...
  • #18,565
  • Aug 30, 2010 11:11am Aug 30, 2010 11:11am
Quoting Setebos
Hey V,
I think they were waiting to see if any big sharks try to attack them hard. At this point they are taking the heat but with the Swap lines to the FED still open they will leave no prisoners should they start shooting.

While on the CBs subject... oh my isn't today a bad day to be managing the SNB ...

How u know this ???
  • #18,566
  • Aug 30, 2010 11:45am Aug 30, 2010 11:45am
Quoting indianguyinny24
How u know this ???
There was an official release from FED some time ago (around the worst part of the EU crisis) that they are temporarily reopening the swap lines. If memory serves me well they will remain available till end of October (not sure on date, could be wrong - need to double check). The FED website should have all the details - they publish a lot of stuff, including balances of any swap transactions made.

Rgrds
S
  • #18,567
  • Aug 31, 2010 12:28pm Aug 31, 2010 12:28pm
Dear frds

Great videos for a peaceful mindset that I really like to share, believer or not.

Inserted Video


Hope all is well

Regards
Life is a school for the soul
  • #18,568
  • Aug 31, 2010 2:14pm Aug 31, 2010 2:14pm
Hi There To all Traders in this unique thread .
First Of all thanks to FTI The starter of this thread for sharing his valuable knolege and his thoughts,ways,music .
Till this thread i have never thought to put in order without Stop Loss
But Now reading and pondering the thread i think i begin to understand that there is other ways to trade the market or should i say the word DANCE.
I read and reread this thread i think that i understand the approach althoug there is much things to reread and to understand better.

something that i think still far from my understanding is the feel of dance . i think that its something that come with screen time.

I have a day job in other field (Electronics) so my screen time relatively low wish i could more time spand in the market triiing to ponder better the DAnce.

I have a few questions for the people that already grasp the basics and maybe be could enlight me with simple exlpanation.
In teaching there is "Time Window" is this means the time when London boys and new york boys and japan Boys Trade active? i mean trading time before and after the lunch or am i missing something.
Allsow i would like to know if deploying the scout made before you feel the impulse wave?

The more i read The more questions come to me
Thanks for the answer in adwance
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #18,569
  • Aug 31, 2010 4:58pm Aug 31, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting -Michael-
Hi There To all Traders in this unique thread .
First Of all thanks to FTI The starter of this thread for sharing his valuable knolege and his thoughts,ways,music .
Till this thread i have never thought to put in order without Stop Loss
But Now reading and pondering the thread i think i begin to understand that there is other ways to trade the market or should i say the word DANCE.
I read and reread this thread i think that i understand the approach althoug there is much things to reread and to understand better.

something that i think still far...
Hi Mike,

It's good to see there are more and more people who find the thread to be the right way for them in forex. I am not one of the first students (I started following fti's teaching a few months after the inception of this thread) but I will try to answer you questions as far as I can. First off all you are correct - the "feel" comes with the screen time. My advice to you is to try take this one step at a time - pick one major and follow it. After some time you will start feeling its pulse, the way it correlates with the rest of the currency pairs and the way it shapes is curves.
I think I remember the part of the thread where fti talks of "time window to sell dollars" - it was a specific situation back then, still, what he meant was the market was in a situation where a dollar sell off was a high possibility situation. Don't bite the text word by word - try reading between the lines - you will find that fti coded a lot of stuff there. And you will keep finding new stuff with each re-read.
As to the scout... Honestly, you may keep a scout in the market just for the sake of feeling connected to the action. Other then that your scout is simply the one who goes and tests if conditions are right for the army to start attacking, after all that's a scout's job, isn't it? A long story short - whenever you think there's a possibility for a runner (impulse) - deploy your scout, taste the water, and then do whatever you are to do (the MM is up to you). It is very much connected to the "feel" - a sort of symbiotic connection. Work on it and it and with time they will all come together - it's a marathon, not a sprint.

I hope this helps.

Regards
S
  • #18,570
  • Edited 4:56am Sep 1, 2010 2:46am | Edited 4:56am
Quoting -Michael-
Hi There To all Traders in this unique thread .
First Of all thanks to FTI The starter of this thread for sharing his valuable knolege and his thoughts,ways,music .
Till this thread i have never thought to put in order without Stop Loss
But Now reading and pondering the thread i think i begin to understand that there is other ways to trade the market or should i say the word DANCE.
I read and reread this thread i think that i understand the approach althoug there is much things to reread and to understand better.

something that i think still far...
Welcom Michael

"feel of dance" - chart and candle patterns etc. + TIMESCREEN and then maybe come "feel of dance" (not close mind in the box)
Determine your risk with which overcome the "waves" (if you do not have the time ... as you will rescue?! ) and read the thread events "about yourself" (scorpions).

Rgs
Attached Images
  • #18,571
  • Sep 1, 2010 3:24am Sep 1, 2010 3:24am
The headline figures from the April 2010 survey are the following:
1. Turnover on the Global foreign exchange market

 

  1. Global foreign exchange market turnover was 20% higher in April 2010 than in April 2007, with average daily turnover of $4.0 trillion compared to $3.3 trillion.
  2. The increase was driven by the 48% growth in turnover of spot transactions, which represent 37% of foreign exchange market turnover. Spot turnover rose to $1.5 trillion in April 2010 from $1.0 trillion in April 2007.
  3. The increase in turnover of other foreign exchange instruments was more modest at 7%, with average daily turnover of $2.5 trillion in April 2010. Turnover in outright forwards and currency swaps grew strongly. Turnover in foreign exchange swaps was flat relative to the previous survey, while trading in currency options decreased.
  4. As regards counterparties, the higher global foreign exchange market turnover is associated with the increased trading activity of "other financial institutions" - a category that includes non-reporting banks, hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies and central banks, among others. Turnover by this category grew by 42%, increasing to $1.9 trillion in April 2010 from $1.3 trillion in April 2007. For the first time, activity of reporting dealers with other financial institutions surpassed inter-dealer transactions (ie transactions between reporting dealers).
  5. Foreign exchange market activity became more global, with cross-border transactions representing 65% of trading activity in April 2010, while local transactions account for 35%.
  6. The percentage share of the US dollar has continued its slow decline witnessed since the April 2001 survey, while the euro and the Japanese yen gained relative to April 2007. Among the 10 most actively traded currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars both increased market share, while the pound sterling and the Swiss franc lost ground. The market share of emerging market currencies increased, with the biggest gains for the Turkish lira and the Korean won.
  7. The relative ranking of foreign exchange trading centres has changed slightly from the previous survey. Banks located in the United Kingdom accounted for 36.7%, against 34.6% in 2007, of all foreign exchange market turnover, followed by the United States (18%), Japan (6%), Singapore (5%), Switzerland (5%), Hong Kong SAR (5%) and Australia (4%).
  8. Activity in OTC interest rate derivatives grew by 24%, with average daily turnover of $2.1 trillion in April 2010. Almost all of the increase relative to the last survey was due to the growth of forward rate agreements (FRAs), which increased by 132% to reach $601 billion.

  • #18,572
  • Edited 3:47am Sep 1, 2010 3:29am | Edited 3:47am
The detailed version of the survey is to release end of year. Good to see our spot market growing. It seems almost half the volume comes from non-bank trading ala hedge funds etc. The japanese have lost mkt share to singapore(is that you fti pumping all that volume?) , swissies and hong kongers. The volume of FX forwards has increased by 72% in the london session. Some kind of a shift taking place.
Btw fti, Have you ever been tempted in trading those interest rate swaps? Do they trade like 10yr treasury futures?
Fti I have a question regarding FX swaps, the other big thing in FX. It says on wikipedia that a swap has two legs, one spot and one forwards. so that technically means that spot transactions are bigger than everything, since they are 37% plus half of 42% (swap market share). Am I correct in assuming that spot transactions are almost 60% of the market?
  • #18,573
  • Sep 1, 2010 3:33am Sep 1, 2010 3:33am
Fti, why is Eur/usd shrinking in terms of average daily volatility? These days its an absolute miracle to see it move 100 pips. It's like the euro is the new yen. Seriously though eur seems to have lost its oomph, I'm considering dropping it from my list. Even aussie has better trends these days.
  • #18,574
  • Sep 1, 2010 6:49am Sep 1, 2010 6:49am
where is this euro strength coming from?
  • #18,575
  • Sep 1, 2010 6:54am Sep 1, 2010 6:54am
Quoting piccolo
where is this euro strength coming from?
To me it feels like market is pricing the recent exports driven economic expansion in the EU. Just my opinion.

Rgrds
S
  • #18,576
  • Edited 7:13am Sep 1, 2010 6:54am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting piccolo
where is this euro strength coming from?
Russia and China buy euro bonds, Iraq = oil chaos
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...od=rss_economy

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...od=rss_economy
  • #18,577
  • Sep 1, 2010 7:01am Sep 1, 2010 7:01am
Quoting Setebos
To me it feels like market is pricing the recent exports driven economic expansion in the EU. Just my opinion.

Rgrds
S
Just read on DJ that investors confidence is back. Just like that, lol.
  • #18,578
  • Edited 7:19am Sep 1, 2010 7:03am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting piccolo
Just read on DJ that investors confidence is back. Just like that, lol.
LOL
Lets see where's that confidence gonna be in 15 minutes

Edit:

US economy data looks uglier with each new release... QE2 anyone?
  • #18,579
  • Edited 2:15pm Sep 1, 2010 7:57am | Edited 2:15pm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...od=rss_economy

did you know?
http://www.videacesky.cz/ostatni/vedeli-jste-ze
  • #18,580
  • Sep 1, 2010 2:38pm Sep 1, 2010 2:38pm
Hi Guys!
Thanks GRO and SETEBOS for your asnwers.
Yes i understand that this is a marathon and not a sprint. So more screen time and reading for me
I wanted to share with this thread my views on what i pondered from this thread with watching on the screen.
For me feel like i see it now is watching the market for strange moves that are relative bigger than previous. This strange move may be an impulse. If this strange move continuoius and makes pull back and resumes many time i see that after pull back wave at least come back to the previous top and than or continuie the move or just come oposite way.
and if this move change direction then after some move it will eventualy make some pull back (maybe it is the wrong way to think as you will say i am predicting)
I attached pic to explain myself. Circles is a bigger move from previous candles . This the way i understand impulse of the market. i know that this is only 5 minute chart and i have to be inline with the bigger timeframes like hourly 4 hours and daily to insure myself that if i am in a wrong side in 5 min that i will be on the right side in bigger timeframe.
What do you think guys. Any input welcome
Michael
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: impulse.jpg Size: 65 KB
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
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