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  • #13,921
  • Sep 11, 2010 4:44pm Sep 11, 2010 4:44pm
Hi all

I just thought i would post and inform that my GBUS trade failed and try and see why?
1. In hindsight the trade was not at a swing high or low on the daily which stuck out more tha all around it. This is my main gripe with this trade.
2. 50 was horizontal. 20 was desending towards it but becoming very near. Does this show uncertainty in price?
3. The power of the 154.60 R has been spot on over last 10 or so bars, so it apppears my S&R on this occasion was correct.
4. I still see both BB and B as being in an immediate down trend.
5. Trade although triggered beyond boss 20, was into it and it had resisted price previously.

I lost 2% on this trade trading three 3 seperate lots.
I feel we can learn more from a looser than a winner and gradually cut out bad trades, although it is all a matter of probability and the big boys can influence the way price moves.

Any thoughts or feed back would be appreciated.

PS eur us trade is still running some profit locked in and at BE, i will feedback on this when complete.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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PASR student.
  • #13,922
  • Sep 11, 2010 5:17pm Sep 11, 2010 5:17pm
Quoting kiwipom
Hi all

I just thought i would post and inform that my GBUS trade failed and try and see why?
1. In hindsight the trade was not at a swing high or low on the daily which stuck out more tha all around it. This is my main gripe with this trade.
2. 50 was horizontal. 20 was desending towards it but becoming very near. Does this show uncertainty in price?
3. The power of the 154.60 R has been spot on over last 10 or so bars, so it apppears my S&R on this occasion was correct.
4. I still see both BB and B as being in an immediate down trend.
5. Trade...
Where have you been these last 5 weeks - sleeping?

Look at your Boss - that tells you EVERYTHING why you should not have traded this!

PRICE has been at S for 5 weeks - we are WAITING for the big boys to move this THEN, we will follow, but NOT until!

EDIT: It also looks like you were only trading with a 200 pip SL - this pair is too volatile for such a small SL - you need at least 300 pips, better yet, 400 pips to REALLY trade GBPUSD.




I lost 2% on this trade trading three 3 separate lots.

And you will keep on losing until you UNDERSTAND how to use the Big Boss and Boss to trade the Worker.

If you still don't know why, Go To Post #1 on Page 1 and read and UNDERSTAND from there!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,923
  • Edited Sep 12, 2010 2:11am Sep 11, 2010 10:55pm | Edited Sep 12, 2010 2:11am
Thanks to those who have posted comments regarding my earlier post (#13875) on this pair. I am not looking to trade this pair but to learn a little more about PA and candles, if I can.

I understand, having already learned the hard way, the dangers of "bottom picking" (strat post #13913 ). I vaguely understand the concept:" This will happen when the sellers stop selling and the buyers start buying - and not until " (Strat post # 13885) All too often I can recognize this after the event.

I drew attention to the PA occurring in this pair on the daily 8 Sept
because it was approaching an important price that has acted as support at the end of the 2008 run down. I do understand that any buy position would be/(have been) CT.

What I am trying to understand from here is what PA subsequent to 8 Sept tells ,or could tell us?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.chf.daily.11sept.gif Size: 15 KB

We see a clear breach of the daily downtrend, with 2 closes above the trend line. The bar 9 Sept (hammer/ hanging man like in shape) and the 10 Sept bar shooting star. We see the SS testing the 158.50 level (former daily support now resistance?) and rejected by the 20ema.

Would a breach of the low of the last candle warrant a short against 158.60 targeting the lows of the 7 Sept hammer for 1st position and possibly new lows for 2nd and 3rd positions?
Would this be considered a "stress-free PASR" trade in keeping with what is taught on the thread?
I ask because of the proximity of (possible) long term support on the BB, as previously mentioned.

Any comments appreciated and gratefully received.
  • #13,924
  • Sep 12, 2010 12:52am Sep 12, 2010 12:52am
HELLO,everyone. it is my homework about eu's s&r. i post here only need your help point out the mistakes . all criticism needed . thank you very much .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu s&r1.gif Size: 16 KB
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #13,925
  • Sep 12, 2010 2:42am Sep 12, 2010 2:42am
Quoting trogger
Thanks to those who have posted comments regarding my earlier post (#13875) on this pair. I am not looking to trade this pair but to learn a little more about PA and candles, if I can.

I understand, having already learned the hard way, the dangers of "bottom picking" (strat post #13913 ). I vaguely understand the concept:" This will happen when the sellers stop selling and the buyers start buying - and not until " (Strat post # 13885) All too often I can recognize this after the event.

I drew attention...
Hello, I am just learning ( very grateful that apart from J16, a thread exists for long-term traders ). So please forgive my early comment.

Looking at your chart, my immediate reaction would be that it is too early to step in. Also, I would start a bit earlier with these candles. Look what happened after the last long red bearish candle. BTW there was no real longer lower wick in that strong bearish candle, indicating that the main bias is sell, or the big players might not yet be finished driving price lower. Subsequently, we see attempts to buy. The first blue candle did not even make it to 50% of the previous red bearish candle. Then again selling and retest of lows, taking out all the stops of the ( too early ) buyers. Subsequent buy candles were rejected by the trendline. Your shooting star has too much of a upper wick, we need to see the close of that candle optimally nearer to the high. After breaking out of the strong bear trendline : a single candle doesnt change the trend. That is why most breakouts fail. So it is better to wait a) for a retest of the trendline, THEN acting as support, or b) wait for strong trend candles indicating that a real momentum is behind the reversal. Also, the last candle is a friday candle, and the big players at that time might have decided to break or test the 1.5840-50 level later, maybe on Monday morning when liquidity is strongest. Also, I would not sell NOW, you are selling in to a range or support, you should trade AWAY from consolidations. ( see the posts of Mike/mbqb11 @James16 thread for lots of posts explaining that. You can click on his avatar and then directly read only his posts top down ).

It has helped me a lot to go through dozens of charts and watch what happens at these lows and highs - always trying to speak out loud to myself ( like Strat recommends ) where the BUYERS and the SELLERS are behind these candles.

I have attached a pic of NZDUSD where you can also see a strong down move and the subsequent drivng down after the first reversal attempt, then taking off. In the other pic you can see a strong candle indicating a real sustainable move up ( BUOB in J16 lingo ).

This is just basic PA, what I have to learn is how to analyze and trade the PA moving down from BB, to B and then Worker.

Thank you, this is much more here than just single candle formations or basic S/R. And I have never thought about using MA`s not as a crossover signal, but rather as a sign of what price is doing in total.

Now I can get back to reading in silence....sssshhhh.

Michael
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Attached Image
Be like water.
  • #13,926
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:11am Sep 12, 2010 3:11am
Quoting trogger
Thanks to those who have posted comments regarding my earlier post (#13875) on this pair. I am not looking to trade this pair...
Greetings Trogger,

I looked at this pair as a potential SHORT trade also, but decided that it would be premature to short at this stage.

My broker, and therefore my data is different to yours, but I think close enough for my analysis to apply to your post.

My reasons are:

i) Principally, we are using the Boss to give us direction and sentiment to trade the Worker.

ii) The latest bar on the Boss tested and rejected S at about 1.5555. This support exists on the 3 time frames.

iii) The latest bar on the Boss is also a spinning top and almost a doji indicating indecision between buyers and sellers.

Therefore, while the Boss is indicating a downward (SHORT) direction, sentiment in favour of a short trade is weak to non-existent.

iv) if you place a Sell Stop order to go short 10 pips or so below the low of Friday's bar (the red dotted line on my daily chart) you only have 38 pips to go before reaching the next level of S (1.5555)

Personally I will wait until I see S at 1.5555 broken decisively with a close below, before considering shorting this pair. Suitable PA will also need to be present also

As always trading is a matter of probabilities, and nothing is certain or definite.

Roger
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf weekly 11 september.jpg Size: 137 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf daily 11 september.jpg Size: 144 KB
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #13,927
  • Sep 12, 2010 5:33am Sep 12, 2010 5:33am
Quoting strat
Where have you been these last 5 weeks - sleeping?

Look at your Boss - that tells you EVERYTHING why you should not have traded this!

PRICE has been at S for 5 weeks - we are WAITING for the big boys to move this THEN, we will follow, but NOT until!

EDIT: It also looks like you were only trading with a 200 pip SL - this pair is too volatile for such a small SL - you need at least 300 pips, better yet, 400 pips to REALLY trade GBPUSD.




I lost 2% on this trade trading three 3 separate lots.

[color=blue][color=black]And...
Thanks for the reply Strat.
I now see that Support was rejected by 3 x Boss candle's.
I see now that the boss failed to close below Support and Boss PA dictated a worker sell was a no go.
I see now why my trade failed and that i did not interpret PASR correctly on the Boss.

It looks like the Support may well be taken out by this weeks boss candle.

Again thanks i will be more observant in future.
PASR student.
  • #13,928
  • Sep 12, 2010 8:12am Sep 12, 2010 8:12am
Quoting No1Optimist
Greetings Trogger,

I looked at this pair as a potential SHORT trade also, but decided that it would be premature to short at this stage.

My broker, and therefore my data is different to yours, but I think close enough for my analysis to apply to your post.

My reasons are:

i) Principally, we are using the Boss to give us direction and sentiment to trade the Worker.

ii) The latest bar on the Boss tested and rejected S at about 1.5555. This support exists on the 3 time frames.

iii) The latest bar...

If I can ...
The price has rebounded from the highlighted area of S / R (very strong).
Will be an attempt to retest 15,500 zone?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,929
  • Sep 12, 2010 9:08am Sep 12, 2010 9:08am
Quoting kiwipom
Thanks for the reply Strat.
I now see that Support was rejected by 3 x Boss candle's.
I see now that the boss failed to close below Support and Boss PA dictated a worker sell was a no go.
I see now why my trade failed and that i did not interpret PASR correctly on the Boss.

It looks like the Support may well be taken out by this weeks boss candle.

Again thanks i will be more observant in future.
Kiwipom, If I may ADD Boss RSI is at 50.26, let it come to atleast 44 and below, put RSI at 9.
  • #13,930
  • Sep 12, 2010 9:18am Sep 12, 2010 9:18am
Quoting behman8850
Kiwipom, If I may ADD Boss RSI is at 50.26, let it come to atleast 44 and below, put RSI at 9.
Please note that Strat does not permit the use of indicators such as the RSI on this thread because he has proved beyond doubt that they are inferior to his PASR method, and in fact overall tend to cause losses.
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #13,931
  • Sep 12, 2010 9:24am Sep 12, 2010 9:24am
Quoting No1Optimist
Please note that Strat does not permit the use of indicators such as the RSI on this thread because he has proved beyond doubt that they are inferior to his PASR method, and in fact overall tend to cause losses.
sorry to note that!
  • #13,932
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:39am Sep 12, 2010 10:39am
Quoting behman8850
sorry to note that!
Even Welles Wilder, the developer of RSI, does not use his RSI as he knows full well its shortcomings and disadvantages.

If you have indicators on your chart or use indicators as a crutch you will NEVER learn or UNDERSTAND raw and pure PRICE ACTION.

Also, if you are using indicators, you need to find another thread to post on!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,933
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:44am Sep 12, 2010 10:44am
Quoting trogger
Thanks to those who have posted comments regarding my earlier post (#13875) on this pair. I am not looking to trade this pair...
When you SEE two opposite PRICE REVERSAL candles within a few candles of each other you should UNDERSTAND there is CONFUSION between buyers and sellers.

When you see confusion, you STAY OUT until the dominant party re-establishes itself
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,934
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:49am Sep 12, 2010 10:49am
Quoting geniusztc
HELLO,everyone. it is my homework about eu's s&r. i post here only need your help point out the mistakes . all criticism needed . thank you very much .
Go back and read the instructions for drawing SR levels on Page 1, make sure you really UNDERSTAND them and then re-draw your levels.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,935
  • Sep 12, 2010 1:50pm Sep 12, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting strat
Go back and read the instructions for drawing SR levels on Page 1, make sure you really UNDERSTAND them and then re-draw your levels.
hello,strat .i promise you i have read your post about S&R,but ,obviously ,i do not understand all of them . this time i show what i am thinking when i draw these lines.first, i t open the BIG BOSS line chart,then find the high and low in every trend ,and at the high or low points draw the lines . in my picture you can see it . then i turn to the BOSS chart ,but this time i can not find more S&R,so it is same with the BIG BOSS.
in order to show my thanks for your reply and help.give you the present(Chinese knot) from china .thank you very much .
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: er s&r1.gif Size: 20 KB
Attached Image
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #13,936
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:33pm Sep 12, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting geniusztc
hello,strat .i promise you i have read your post about S&R,but ,obviously ,i do not understand all of them . this time i show what i am thinking when i draw these lines.first, i t open the BIG BOSS line chart,then find the high and low in every trend ,and at the high or low points draw the lines . in my picture you can see it . then i turn to the BOSS chart ,but this time i can not find more S&R,so it is same with the BIG BOSS.
in order to show my thanks for your reply and help.give you the present(Chinese knot) from...
Now fine tune your Big Boss levels on the Boss chart.

Xie Xie for the virtual knot but I have many real ones as I visit China very often.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,937
  • Sep 12, 2010 5:01pm Sep 12, 2010 5:01pm
Hi all,

I am back again after a break from trading. Will look to make regular posts again.

To ease myself back in USDJPY

Big Boss - Bearish Candle (More Crows) the trend is very clearly down.
Boss - Hammer from a very interesting historical level. Potentially points to the elastic band effect kicking in here.
Worker - Possible swing low forming however the 20 has kept the worker firmly under control since June currently @ 84.55, looking for it to do so again.

I'm probably a little rusty, will catch up on the thread and also re-read earlier sections but keen to contribute again.

I've had a tough time keeping the little people under control with my own money but PASR is doing magic for money that is not my own (the little people are far more quiet). Now that my account is fully restored I am having another crack at this. Thanks again for this fantastic thread Strat.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BIG_BOSS_USD_JPY (10-SEP-10).png Size: 15 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: WORKER_USD_JPY (10-SEP-10).png Size: 14 KB
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #13,938
  • Edited 12:25am Sep 13, 2010 12:09am | Edited 12:25am
in the chart, the BIG BOSS,the BOSS,and WORKER,is also in a long trend .and ,you can the price has just across the short trend line,so i think au will still go long .the first resistence is @0.9600. do you agree with it??? thank you for your idea advance.

there is a GAP. and i do not know the affect of gap to trend.can anyone tell me ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #13,939
  • Sep 13, 2010 2:50am Sep 13, 2010 2:50am
Good morning,

I continue reading with great interest, and some gems I re-read again and again.

One thing that strikes me today, looking at other trader`s posts that try to read the market makers intentions on lower timeframes : when we have major support/resistance levels premarked and understand what the candles are telling us, we can see those games on the dailies and up too. What a relief !

Precious :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55459&page=110

Thank you Strat.

_________________
Michael
Be like water.
  • #13,940
  • Sep 13, 2010 3:40am Sep 13, 2010 3:40am
The thread has a lot of great information evenly spread throughout the thread. It has great info at beginning, in the middle, at the end and in between those points.

Some of you reading the thread might feel the urge to speed up the reading, in order to catch up with the latest posts in the thread, hoping to reach to the good part more quickly. If you know what I'm talking about then don't do it. Try to resist that urge and read at your "understanding" speed because the good part is everywhere.
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