fake breakouts against a strong trend

Thank you moderators, I'm glad to see I was moved away from "rookies"
If this method will pass backtests it can be used mostly as a scalping system.
For example:
strong down trend
last swing high @1.2850
new swing high @1.2851
the price go down again - we enter short 1 pip under last swing high @1.2849
set stop loss 1 pip over the last swing high @1.2852
let's assume 1 pip spred
our risk is [(1.2852-1.2849)+1]=4
our first target will be (1.2849-4)=1.2845 where we move stop loss at break even point
if the price go down again at (1.2845-4)=1.2841 we move stop at 1.2845
if the price go down again at (1.2841-4)=1.2837 we move stop at 1.2841
and so on...

Here is the chart

In THE NEXT CHART we could take 15 pips gain with 5 risk becouse:
when price at the blu line we move stop loss from red to black line (be)
when price at the green line we move stop loss from black to blue line (+5)
when price at the magenta line we move stop loss from blue to green line (+10)
when price at the brown line we move stop loss from green to magenta line(+15 and taken)

I was checking on some pairs, just to be sure this way of trading is profitable even if there are several fake signals (using the tightset stop loss possible, one tick over/under setup bar)...look at this:
7 setups in few hours and just a loser one...the other six had a minimum 1:1 ratio

I got inspired by Linda Raschke and her turtle soup to "create" this method...initially I was testing bigger tf but everytime a setup appeared I should go on smaller tf to check better the history of the candle.
In her book, infact, the technique is explained not in the better way...I'll try to show what I mean by a chart

THIs is a daily chart with a pattern "turtle soup".
In Street smarts an example like this one should be shown as winner, since they say: entry long after the new low, when the prise go 5 pips over the old low and set stop loss few pips under the new minimum (and as you can see the sl seems not to be catchen)

but have a look at the same chart no daily but 5 min tf
the black line is the old low (done about 6 days before)
"today" the price does a new low (blue ellipse), we go long 5 pips over the black line but the stop loss is taken (first red line)
then the price does a new low (pink ellipse) and the stop loss is taken again
only at the 3rd attempt the trade go right
In the book a trade like that has shown as winner one (seeing jut the daily chart)
For this matter I choose directly smaller time frames

here is another backtest following the first post rules:
it's hard to do it manually but it is the only way

Few minuts later:

Last backtest for this morning:

I don't know if this method can guarantee regular profits, I've already set the strong trend filter.
Furthermore I am testing not very clear swing that sometimes give bad trades.
I am doing this way to avoid any optimistic sight.
Hope someone help to improve this technique by advices or automatic backtesting

I keep backtesting usdcad...ellipse negative, rectangle positive...

other 4 pips and a break even

real time....risking 5 pips (spread included) could win 10...
not taken because I'm doing houseworks

en plein on usdcad this afternoon

congratulation, it's a great trading system (or just the beginning), very similar to the way i trade.
When we have a false countertrend breakout, let's look for some trigger inside the false-breakout space (like false bo happen on 30m uptrend chart, u go to 5min and look for some buy pattern (a-b-c or h&s, basically a higher low followed by a high breakout), the result is trading in the trend direction with a great R:R ratio!
Viva l'Italia!

ciao tunera
I think it is a good idea of trading, I have to test it again and to fix some details.
By the way I couldn't trade this method 'couse I work.
but if I'll get fired ...
bye

Hello everybody, I could not test this strategy last week because I was at work all day long and in the evening I was very tired...
I checked few days and I went mad for the number of signals of breakouts of the previous high (or low)...so I decided to mind only the most important by another filter (in addition to the strong trend ma indicator).
A swing breakout of this kind will not be considerated, not impontant enough to cause a nice reversal, and too many signals, by the way

I set fractal indicator to do a selection of the swing high and lows.
Let's take eurusd, last week and test it:

Rules are the following (for long):
-strong up trend, green ma>red ma>blue ma
-price over blue ma
-if price break down a down arrow fractal candle we keep an eye on it
-if price goes up again 1 pip over breakout point we enter long (not too late, maximum 2 bars later)
-stop loss 1 pip under the most recent swing low
-first target=stop loss value+1 pip spread
-if we reach first target we set stop at be
-second target= 1st target x 2
-if we reach the second target we move stop in profit at ex first target
and so on...

Hi ale

Yes, I like "fake (false) breaks."
It is one of the methods I use currently in trading.
*combining with PA, TL, SL, RL and MA.

Pls. keep up your chart analyst.

BTW, what MAs shown in your charts?

Happy Trading, pal.

Cheers