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AUD/USD

  • #22,901
  • Sep 10, 2010 9:41am Sep 10, 2010 9:41am
Quoting Phonetic
its just Forex, we dont need news to make moves. Technicals come into play. AUD/USD was at the weekly TL this morning around .9266, the sell was there.
Yes I do agree, I had been looking back over a year and there was only about 100 more pips to be had before reaching the highest level. That said, it seems to have been heading strongly up for some time now, including over the last few days, so one couldn't really be sure. I made it 'home' safely though. put another long on just before it reached its day bottom and came at the top just now, phew!! More lessons to be learned :-)
  • #22,902
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:11am Sep 10, 2010 11:11am
Quoting kandarv
I didn't see that TL. Don't know if its gonna hold.
I got stopped out at be+2 this am, but I loaded some big shorts at .9263, so I'm hoping it does...and I'm hoping it doesnt break it by 50 pips and then end up dropping like a rock because I will not let this trade go 50 pips against me. That happens to me a lot. Don't use a wide enough SL and I get stopped just before somethin big happens
  • #22,903
  • Sep 10, 2010 1:13pm Sep 10, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting Phonetic
I got stopped out at be+2 this am, but I loaded some big shorts at .9263, so I'm hoping it does...and I'm hoping it doesnt break it by 50 pips and then end up dropping like a rock because I will not let this trade go 50 pips against me. That happens to me a lot. Don't use a wide enough SL and I get stopped just before somethin big happens
I'm not feeling the short here Phonetic, it's building to the upside. In fact I'm planning to leave a long position open for the weekend.
  • #22,904
  • Sep 10, 2010 2:00pm Sep 10, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting kandarv
I'm not feeling the short here Phonetic, it's building to the upside. In fact I'm planning to leave a long position open for the weekend.
Time will tell...have to stick to my plan.

It's Friday afternoon VERY low volume on this drift up.

I think that Weekly TL deserves a little more credit
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  • #22,905
  • Sep 10, 2010 2:41pm Sep 10, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting Phonetic
Time will tell...have to stick to my plan.

It's Friday afternoon VERY low volume on this drift up.

I think that Weekly TL deserves a little more credit
I'm with you on this. This currency is in a bubble.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,906
  • Sep 10, 2010 2:51pm Sep 10, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting Phonetic
Time will tell...have to stick to my plan.

It's Friday afternoon VERY low volume on this drift up.

I think that Weekly TL deserves a little more credit
One thing that I'll have to warn is that this currency can very easily have a false break of the TL. I don't think it'll cross 94 though. We're in an exhaustion phase. The fact of the matter is that this currency is in a parabolic trend up versus the EUR and AUD since July. We all know how parabolic trends end up...
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,907
  • Sep 10, 2010 3:06pm Sep 10, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
One thing that I'll have to warn is that this currency can very easily have a false break of the TL. I don't think it'll cross 94 though. We're in an exhaustion phase. The fact of the matter is that this currency is in a parabolic trend up versus the EUR and AUD since July. We all know how parabolic trends end up...
Thats what I'm afraid of. A break of that TL though is going to scare me away from shorts. It's a 2 year TL. Not that long but 2 years is 2 years..
  • #22,908
  • Sep 10, 2010 3:09pm Sep 10, 2010 3:09pm
Look at EUR/USD, this thing is going down further imo. Can't get back above that TL. I'm waiting for the AUD/USD to follow hard
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  • #22,909
  • Sep 10, 2010 3:34pm Sep 10, 2010 3:34pm
NZD/USD
looking at the monthly chart for nzd/usd it has shown no real direction in about a year (from a long term trade view) and is very close to a major tl drawn from the 08 to the 09 highs, the tl is at 0.7314 according to my charts. the horizontal red line is the monthly close from april 2010, highest of this year. monthly chart could look like a head and shoulders, also a descending channel. could be a very good short coming very soon
have a good weekend
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  • #22,910
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:28pm Sep 10, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
I'm with you on this. This currency is in a bubble.
makes no sense... they where the first to raise rates to control bubbles growing ... real estate with no shock.. growth on extremely low debt.. you tell me what bubble there is ?? is it all of australia that is in bubble..? the fleets of ships wrecking into the great barrier reef and all backed up because they cant load up on commodities at the port fast enough... on an island based on commodities... with near no debt.. with exploding gdp.. and raising commodity prices.. anyways just because a chart is parabolic doesnt mean its in a bubble.. take a look at argentina and brazil.

fundamentals then technicals
  • #22,911
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:50pm Sep 10, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting domino
makes no sense... they where the first to raise rates to control bubbles growing ... real estate with no shock.. growth on extremely low debt.. you tell me what bubble there is ?? is it all of australia that is in bubble..? the fleets of ships wrecking into the great barrier reef and all backed up because they cant load up on commodities at the port fast enough......
Fundamentally Australia is without a doubt the worst country in the G20 over the long-term.

People always talks of Australia as being a commodity based economy. That's not true at all. The reality is that only 10% of their GDP is based on mining exports. While about 70% is based on the "services" sector.

Australia is in one the biggest housing bubbles in modern history. Amazingly it didn't crack during the global financial crisis. Household Debt-GDP levels in Australia are the highest in the G20, along with house prices relative to median income.

http://www.roomtomove.info/problem.html

Credit booms of this sort in developed markets always end up with a bang and a depression or a very very long stagnation.

I expect to see AUD rates to go far below 3.00 very soon and likely to stabilize at <1% for quite a while.

However, I initially expect aussie to encounter pressure from falling equity markets. Very soon we'll be testing March 2009 lows. The United States is entering something greater than the Great Depression. I don't expect the bear market to end till the DOW tests ~1700 area(spike low of October 1987). However, there is a decent chance we go far lower than that.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,912
  • Sep 11, 2010 12:14am Sep 11, 2010 12:14am
Quoting domino
makes no sense... they where the first to raise rates to control bubbles growing ... real estate with no shock.. growth on extremely low debt.. you tell me what bubble there is ?? is it all of australia that is in bubble..? the fleets of ships wrecking into the great barrier reef and all backed up because they cant load up on commodities at the port fast enough... on an island based on commodities... with near no debt.. with exploding gdp.. and raising commodity prices.. anyways just because a chart is parabolic doesnt mean its in a bubble.. take...
AUD only worth 70 cents US by purchase power.
It is a bubble based on that.

technically it is in big range.
just like usdchf or usdcad, but opposite.
  • #22,913
  • Sep 11, 2010 1:09am Sep 11, 2010 1:09am
Quoting rahulkghosh
Fundamentally Australia is without a doubt the worst country in the G20 over the long-term.

People always talks of Australia as being a commodity based economy. That's not true at all. The reality is that only 10% of their GDP is based on mining exports. While about 70% is based on the "services" sector.
sigh 4.1% agricultural 26% industrial like(mining, industrial and transportation equipment, food processing, chemicals, steel) so 30% dude... real numbers
Quote
Australia is in one the biggest housing bubbles in modern history. Amazingly it didn't crack during the global financial crisis. Household Debt-GDP levels in Australia are the highest in the G20, along with house prices relative to median income.
ignoring the fact this is blatantly ripped off from wikipedia... australias prices are going to be higher because its on an island.. the higher cost to produce houses due to importing construction materials raises house manufacturing costs.. the raise in costs and price to construct reduces supply because not as many houses are being built.. between 2009 and 2010 there was a sharp drop off in supply and as we traders should know by now shrinking supply and same or rising demand = naturally occuring higher prices..
Quote
http://www.roomtomove.info/problem.html

Credit booms of this sort in developed markets always end up with a bang and a depression or a very very long stagnation.
well you really need to look at the levels split apart from each other.. the extremely low 14% public debt level..... and private debt of oh no 90%? compared to 350% in america.? private debt including business startups? mortgages? car loans..? holy smokes so your telling me there is an aussy out there that makes 100K a year .... has an 70k mortgage and a 20k car loan on average not including those who have business loans and such and we should all be concerned?
Quote
I expect to see AUD rates to go far below 3.00 very soon and likely to stabilize at <1% for quite a while.

However, I initially expect aussie to encounter pressure from falling equity markets. Very soon we'll be testing March 2009 lows. The United States is entering something greater than the Great Depression. I don't expect the bear market to end till the DOW tests ~1700 area(spike low of October 1987). However, there is a decent chance we go far lower than that.
well im not much for calling the end of the world or end to usa market or aussy market so im not going to make dow 1600 guesses but at 350% prvate and 130%+ public debt levels in america id be more concerned about us not reducing some spending working on creating some jobs and creating more revenues and leveling out the trade playing field by applying some damn tarriffs like the good ole days.. than the expensive house on an island market bubble..? hawaii's houses are in a bubble ... I should be able to buy a house in maui for 50k right on the ocean ... screw the cost of building on maui and lack of land that house is only worth 50k.
  • #22,914
  • Edited 1:38am Sep 11, 2010 1:25am | Edited 1:38am
Quoting mry2001
AUD only worth 70 cents US by purchase power.
It is a bubble based on that.

technically it is in big range.
just like usdchf or usdcad, but opposite.
k so lemme work this out for the people who dont know this extremely old and useless theory... your saying that your taking a basket of normally purchased items... using exchange rate to figure out the value using a same denomination and then calculating the difference between the basket of item costs..? ok sounds good until you factor in that if a person in australia wants colgate then they have to ship that colgate way the heck away from where its made or price a comparable replacement for colgate is hard because you have to price out quality of the replacement item in the basket.. for colgate you need to transport it and pay import taxes on it.. and we should expect that it should cost the same? of course its going to cost more.. it was shipped there .. so your saying based on this idea there is a bubble?

sorry guys time to stop calling the end of the new 21st century world with 16th century economics
  • #22,915
  • Sep 11, 2010 4:35am Sep 11, 2010 4:35am
My view on AUDUSD weekly:

Or we are trapped within a gigantic triangle still completing Wave 4 (bearish) or just beginning Wave 5 up (bullish). We will know for sure if she breaks the current top trendline.

The alternance of waves 2-4 guideline supports the triangle possibility, as Wave 2 was very sharp, but you never know...

So, currently there's a very good risk to reward opportunity on the bearish side (Stop Loss on this week's top at .928 OR at the horizontal line at .94).

Comments are welcome http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/images/smilies/wink.gif

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/attac...ion-audusd.jpg
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #22,916
  • Edited 10:44am Sep 11, 2010 5:41am | Edited 10:44am
Quoting rahulkghosh
Fundamentally Australia is without a doubt the worst country in the G20 over the long-term.

People always talks of Australia as being a commodity based economy. That's not true at all. The reality is that only 10% of their GDP is based on mining exports. While about 70% is based on the "services" sector.

Australia is in one the biggest housing bubbles in modern history. Amazingly it didn't crack during the global financial crisis. Household Debt-GDP levels in Australia are the highest in the G20, along with house prices relative to median...
trading is not just about fundamental

apart from the fact that RBA, like every other central bank, is there to adjust rates and keep them at the most appropriate level, but if Australian rates are now at 4,50% is simply because economy is growing, just look at the last 6 months data to have an idea.

AUD as a currency, is very commodity and equity related.
And it always leads the rallies and lag behind as it is an anticipator of the expected economic cycle.
Markets are now expecting a less soft recovery and they price it this way.
Even the election, that with a hung parliament would have made any other currency weak, were not an issue for AUD.
Last but not least, AUD is one of the main targets of chinese massive currency reserves diversification, so it's not a suprise if it's sustained on any dip since the last two years....

On a technical point of view, I am with you for a short in the 0,93 - 94 area, as I don't think that equities will keep up on September and USD could be lifted up a bit, but you'll see that if this pair will hit 0,88 - 0,90, the buyers will reappear soon...
  • #22,917
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:15am Sep 11, 2010 9:15am
What you think about this setup ?
-AB=CD pattern where CD = 1.618
- Weekly down trend line
- UTL of the ascending channel
Cheers.
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  • #22,918
  • Sep 12, 2010 12:36am Sep 12, 2010 12:36am
the trend of aud/usd is weird. many times it seems to be down, but it always come back.
  • #22,919
  • Sep 12, 2010 2:00am Sep 12, 2010 2:00am
little correction maybe?
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  • #22,920
  • Sep 12, 2010 2:19am Sep 12, 2010 2:19am
a very strong resistance ahead at 0.9300 level, i'm looking to short at that area, for now just need to wait further development...

i still have 1 position riding the trend since 8 sept
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