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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #8,581
  • Sep 8, 2010 11:13pm Sep 8, 2010 11:13pm
Hey Guys,
Just checked my terminal. AU seems to be a significant area. See chart. GU behaved perfectly on Fib. UCHF is still teetering on my LTL. I am leaving on an extended business trip in the next few days where all I will have is forex forex and more forex. So I should be back to posting at my old rate (a ton). Looking forward to getting back into it with you guys. Cheers
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  • #8,582
  • Sep 9, 2010 3:11am Sep 9, 2010 3:11am
Quoting Kominiara
Hi everyone

at GU we are near downtrend trendline area, we've got a previous tops near here too. So i'm thinking about SHORT here with SL beyond 1,55.

http://a.imageshack.us/img265/1125/gbpusd08092010.jpg
SL was hit here, about -40 pips.

Now we have new price channel, and i dont know what next, bounce and back to 1,55xx or going to lower trendline and 1,52xx. will see
cheers

http://a.imageshack.us/img844/1231/gbpusd09092010.jpg
  • #8,583
  • Sep 9, 2010 4:08am Sep 9, 2010 4:08am
Quoting ianlikesgolf

Hi MarcVum & Low
Thankyou I apprecite you guys kindness to share & help.
I will try my best to learn to surf the waves of price action with the MA s.

You are welcome!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #8,584
  • Sep 9, 2010 4:09am Sep 9, 2010 4:09am
Quoting Saxon
Hey Guys,
Just checked my terminal. AU seems to be a significant area. See chart. GU behaved perfectly on Fib. UCHF is still teetering on my LTL. I am leaving on an extended business trip in the next few days where all I will have is forex forex and more forex. So I should be back to posting at my old rate (a ton). Looking forward to getting back into it with you guys. Cheers
Sounds like a plan Saxon! We look forward to seeing you around again soon!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #8,585
  • Sep 9, 2010 4:54am Sep 9, 2010 4:54am
EJ south trip
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GREENIUS
  • #8,586
  • Sep 9, 2010 5:51am Sep 9, 2010 5:51am
A/U. I am little frustrated this morning...I dislike it when PA acts this way with little steps up up and up. That always makes it difficult (for me) to find the right place to get in without having to wait for eternity for the next move up!

My chart and thoughts below.
Anyone have a long entry point below or someplace they might take a quick short due to confluence of pivs and/or fibs?
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #8,587
  • Sep 9, 2010 6:04am Sep 9, 2010 6:04am
A/U. Even on the H4 I really don't have anything to work with besides a possible newly formed wedge channel and a possibility of retesting the broken UTL which is highly unlikely... I don't have any old S/R's in this area and all of my Fib calculations don't show anything exciting! I think this pair will close higher by the end of the week.

Time to look at another pair!
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #8,588
  • Sep 9, 2010 7:40am Sep 9, 2010 7:40am
Quoting MarcVUM
A/U. Even on the H4 I really don't have anything to work with besides a possible newly formed wedge channel and a possibility of retesting the broken UTL which is highly unlikely... I don't have any old S/R's in this area and all of my Fib calculations don't show anything exciting! I think this pair will close higher by the end of the week.

Time to look at another pair!
Patience is key in this business. That was fun...quota met for the day thanks to the better than expected employment data. Have a great day everyone! Seeya
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #8,589
  • Sep 9, 2010 7:55am Sep 9, 2010 7:55am
Quoting MarcVUM
A/U. Even on the H4 I really don't have anything to work with besides a possible newly formed wedge channel and a possibility of retesting the broken UTL which is highly unlikely... I don't have any old S/R's in this area and all of my Fib calculations don't show anything exciting! I think this pair will close higher by the end of the week.

Time to look at another pair!
Hey marc,
Price is heading right into a strong resistance level and a DTL ... as there is not much room between the resistance and current price level therefore i also feel that its better to stay on the sidelines until this situation resolves it self.
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  • #8,590
  • Sep 9, 2010 7:58am Sep 9, 2010 7:58am
Quoting Saxon
Hey Guys,
Just checked my terminal. AU seems to be a significant area. See chart. GU behaved perfectly on Fib. UCHF is still teetering on my LTL. I am leaving on an extended business trip in the next few days where all I will have is forex forex and more forex. So I should be back to posting at my old rate (a ton). Looking forward to getting back into it with you guys. Cheers
Hi Saxon,
Look forward to see a lot of great discussion and setups. Have great trip!.

Cheers
  • #8,591
  • Sep 9, 2010 2:01pm Sep 9, 2010 2:01pm
What does this look like the markets saying?
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Annoying Precision
  • #8,592
  • Sep 9, 2010 2:08pm Sep 9, 2010 2:08pm
good morning

I am having fun surfing the waves with these MA's. I loaded most of them on the chart apart from the 50, 50, 62 ,95 at this time.
I put 25sma & 200ema on too as they were my favourites.
My idea is to wait for my weekly ATR lines to give trade signals via the rules &
go down to M5 or M15 & enter correctly with the MA's.
I put on a very small buy at 82.59.
A weekly ATR buy signal was almost given at 82.25 when price came 3-4 pips away from to the green ATR line on the H1 & RSI oversold.

Ian
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  • #8,593
  • Sep 9, 2010 2:22pm Sep 9, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
I am having fun surfing the waves with these MA's.
Ian
How are you reading it?! I can't make heads or tails out of PA on CHF/JPY with these MA's! My hats off to you... the only other pairs I've used this set on is G/U, E/U and U/J.
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #8,594
  • Sep 9, 2010 5:47pm Sep 9, 2010 5:47pm
I can't just keep reposting this in each thread I like without killing the bandwidth:

Here's 9 weekly charts I like

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3196

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3197
  • #8,595
  • Sep 9, 2010 8:55pm Sep 9, 2010 8:55pm
Quoting Low
I can't just keep reposting this in each thread I like without killing the bandwidth:

Here's 9 weekly charts I like

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3196

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3197
Thanks for you efforts Low.
  • #8,596
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:19pm Sep 9, 2010 11:19pm

Hello Bros,

Can someone senior in forex please explain:-

1. Why if at anytime the risk aversion occur, the fall of A/U, G/U, E/U or most of Dollar pair, would fall like 1000-2000 pips. This drop may continue to fall if the risk aversion so strong. The recent example was Usd/Chf.

Most cross pair always fall more than 2000 pip. Example G/Y did fall to 5000 pip before it continue fall.

My question, when the risk appetite/stock market is bull, why the bull to this pairs were short lived, even if it continue to up, it will very slow. Meaning, whenever it tries to bull, it will fall back later and soon.

Example scenario, if you look at A/U chart now, we can see it is trying to bull. Somebody even told me it is trying to go parity to Dollar. Buy how come it is slow? Why A/U cant go straight to 1.00 without retracement? If risk aversion occur, it could go without a retracement.

If somebody can tell, when will the super bull will coming? please let me know how and at what situation or event can be the super Bull in the forex market?

Sorry my english is very bad.

  • #8,597
  • Sep 10, 2010 12:09am Sep 10, 2010 12:09am
Hi MarcVUM

Yes I can not make heads or tales out those charts too.
I was too sleepy at 4 am I think.

Here is an example of AUDUSD of what I am experimenting with.

ENTRY
92.75 price level was the area of confluence yellow weekly ATR retrace line.
92.66 price level was the area of confluence of Weekly R1.
Price action SMI indi & RSI/stochs confirm on H1 & M15.

EXIT
92.08 price level was the area of confluence red weekly ATR line.
Price action SMI indi & RSI/stochs confirm on H1 & M15.

1. identify key area of confluence (weekly/monthy pivot indi & weekly ATR lines)

2. look for price action confirmation

3. enter with the MA's & SMI or stochs or RSI.

P.S I will post again later with a CHFJPY example.
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  • #8,598
  • Sep 10, 2010 12:25am Sep 10, 2010 12:25am
Quoting forex888

Hello Bros,

Can someone senior in forex please explain:-

1. Why if at anytime the risk aversion occur, the fall of A/U, G/U, E/U or most of Dollar pair, would fall like 1000-2000 pips. This drop may continue to fall if the risk aversion so strong. The recent example was Usd/Chf.

Most cross pair always fall more than 2000 pip. Example G/Y did fall to 5000 pip before it continue fall.



As far as the cross-pairs are concerned, they are often "synthetic" pairs, meaning they move in relation to their members relationship with the dollar. They tend to move quite a bit when things get shaky, and as risk is managed aggressively. The eur/jpy is a good example.

Usually when the dollar goes one way or the other, the EJ will go sideways because its "parent pairs" the USDJPY and EURUSD are quoted inversely, by that I mean the "USD" is on different sides of each pair, and usually when the dollar is sold, the UJ goes down, the and the EU goes up. But should both the EUR and the JPY go up or down, the EJ takes oof like a rocket, whichever direction it may be.


Quoting forex888
My question, when the risk appetite/stock market is bull, why the bull to this pairs were short lived, even if it continue to up, it will very slow. Meaning, whenever it tries to bull, it will fall back later and soon.

Example scenario, if you look at A/U chart now, we can see it is trying to bull. Somebody even told me it is trying to go parity to Dollar. Buy how come it is slow? Why A/U cant go straight to 1.00 without retracement? If risk aversion occur, it could go without a retracement.
AU won't go strait up because nothing does. It all moves in waves. Sometimes things do go up or down really fast, and that is often referred to as a "parabolic" move, and these usually fall as fast as they climb, as traders seek some price level that represents their idea of fair value.

Quoting forex888
If somebody can tell, when will the super bull will coming? please let me know how and at what situation or event can be the super Bull in the forex market?

Sorry my english is very bad.


None of us know this. If we did we would all be rich and not hang out here. Not only that, but "bull" for one market is always "bear" for it's counterpart.
For example: when US stocks rise, the USD declines, therefore buying stocks is almost the same as shorting the dollar.
  • #8,599
  • Sep 10, 2010 5:35am Sep 10, 2010 5:35am
A/U. M15 21/35ma crossover at 2:45am est and then a nice doji testing the 35sma at 4:15am est bringing price back to a minor S/R from yesterday highlighted in the white rectangle. I'd like to see a retest of the 95sma in purple here or price test 9244 to confirm another move up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #8,600
  • Sep 10, 2010 5:38am Sep 10, 2010 5:38am
Quoting ianlikesgolf
Hi MarcVUM

Yes I can not make heads or tales out those charts too.
I was too sleepy at 4 am I think.

Here is an example of AUDUSD of what I am experimenting with.

ENTRY
92.75 price level was the area of confluence yellow weekly ATR retrace line.
92.66 price level was the area of confluence of Weekly R1.
Price action SMI indi & RSI/stochs confirm on H1 & M15.

EXIT
92.08 price level was the area of confluence red weekly ATR line.
Price action SMI indi & RSI/stochs confirm on H1 & M15.

1. identify key area of confluence...
Sounds like you are putting together plans which is fantastic! One thing I am always careful about is the H1. For some reason I don't follow candlestick formations and the Stochs too much on this TF... a lot of false moves in the past have made me weary. I keep H1 in my side view mirror but mainly look at the Daily, H4, M30 and M15. Stochs on the M30 have been great lately.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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