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Odds are with a 4hr KISS

  • #281
  • Sep 1, 2010 6:16am Sep 1, 2010 6:16am
We had a couple EU trade setups already this week. Between the GU, EJ, and 2 EU trades...one could have already netted 100pips this week!
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  • #282
  • Sep 1, 2010 7:21am Sep 1, 2010 7:21am
Here is a setup in real time....
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  • #283
  • Sep 1, 2010 7:36am Sep 1, 2010 7:36am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Here is a setup in real time....

A quick update...the 20ma was at 107.20, your entry would have been about 107.30 and currently EJ is at 107.80(50pips profit)...so you would move your 100pip stoploss up to breakeven right now if you want to play it safe!

***Side Note*** You always have to be careful when your limits are at/near whole levels. In this case our 75pip goal puts our limit at 108.05. Price may stall before getting to that level(right now I see it reached a high of 107.91)...there would be absolutely nothing wrong with taking profits a little early. 50-60pips is always nice. You just have to ask yourself, is another 15-25pips worth the risk of taking breakeven? If you can handle that aspect of trading...leave the trade open. If you can't, exit the trade!
  • #284
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:33am Sep 1, 2010 8:33am
75pip target price was just hit as price hit 108.05!!! that would make nearly 200pips profit this week in 3 days of trading! Last week was very slow...this week made up for that! Just goes to show you, you can't force trades...let the market come to you and be patient for it!
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  • #285
  • Edited 11:34am Sep 2, 2010 10:56am | Edited 11:34am
Thanks, 211, your trade explanations are always most helpful. By the way, do you normally let a trade qualify with the 20 line and MACD, THEN allow it to bounce back to the 20 line and take your entry then? Obviously, a retrace to the 20 does frequently happen, I just wondered if that retrace is something you wait for prior to taking your position?

I've been away this week from trading and last week was pretty dead. Looks like my weeks should have been reversed.

You are so right. Wait and let the market tell its story and provide its opportunities. They will come.

Forest
  • #286
  • Sep 3, 2010 6:01am Sep 3, 2010 6:01am
Quoting Forest-Sea
Thanks, 211, your trade explanations are always most helpful. By the way, do you normally let a trade qualify with the 20 line and MACD, THEN allow it to bounce back to the 20 line and take your entry then? Obviously, a retrace to the 20 does frequently happen, I just wondered if that retrace is something you wait for prior to taking your position?

I've been away this week from trading and last week was pretty dead. Looks like my weeks should have been reversed.

You are so right. Wait and let the market...
Hi Forest, thank you for posting on here. I was beginning to wonder where everyone went and if it was worth it to keep posting on here!

To answer your question, yes...I do perfer to wait for price to close above/below the 20 and Macd to agree, then wait for the pullback to enter the trade. HOWEVER, in a few instances I will enter on candle close(not waiting for the pullback) IF price closes at/near(within 10-15pips) of the 20ma. That doesn't happen to often, but it does every now and then. The important thing is that you have at least 3 reasons(price action, 20ma, macd) to tell you to enter a trade, AND there aren't the same or more reasons not to enter the trades, AND your entry is at/near the 20ma to help reduce risk. Hope that helps...let me know if you have any more questions.

Happy Trading and Have a good weekend!
  • #287
  • Sep 3, 2010 6:06am Sep 3, 2010 6:06am
Quoting Forest-Sea
Thanks, 211, your trade explanations are always most helpful....

Forest,

i'm not sure about always, waiting for the pullback, I try to, and i know 211 does too. But I "always" wait for the pullback although i use the 21ema and 211 uses the 20 lma. The problem is occasionally, I slip and take a trade that doesn't meet the rules. the problem with not waiting is, if it works, then you think you were justified. if it doesn't, then you now think your kids wont' get to go to college. it boils down to the money management. and trading style. if you can let the runners run a bit with partials, then you probably don't have to be right so often and you can probably handle a bit higher draw down. in this system with taking pips at the set level, i think it is critical to wait for the pullback. for me, its about the psychological capital. i don't like to see big draw downs, when i know that all i would have had to do was wait for the pullback.

hope this helps

Scottie
  • #288
  • Sep 7, 2010 3:55am Sep 7, 2010 3:55am
Took a short on the AUDUSD, I was late in, watching cable too closely, so pulled the plug at 9100 but it was a nice set up I thought. We had price going sideways for a while then a clear break, nice bear candle, pull back to the 20 then the next 4 hour candle turns negative at .9134
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  • #289
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:35am Sep 8, 2010 9:35am
Hi Paj --

The great thing about this approach is one can be 'a little late' and frequently still enjoy a nice trade! Actually,this is one of the lessons of this style. Surely, late is usually better than early.

Thanks for posting your success.

Regards, Forest
  • #290
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:27am Sep 8, 2010 10:27am
Quoting Paj
Took a short on the AUDUSD, I was late in, watching cable too closely, so pulled the plug at 9100 but it was a nice set up I thought. We had price going sideways for a while then a clear break, nice bear candle, pull back to the 20 then the next 4 hour candle turns negative at .9134
I would agree with what Forest Sea said...usually late is better than early. I don't recommend making it a habit to get in late though...but if for some reason you are late, make sure you don't look for BIG winning trades/profits. If the normal goal is 75pips with an entry at/near the 20ma....then "late" entries should be 50, 40, or 25pips depending how late you are.
  • #291
  • Sep 8, 2010 5:40pm Sep 8, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
I would agree with what Forest Sea said...
How unusual . . .


Actually, I have another question for 211, Scottie and all. Feel free to chip in your individual thoughts.

Two, I know you really follow three big pairs. I currently track with some attention about 9 . . . pretty much the majors, etc.

Why, Two, do you restrict yourself to just three? I know you are busy (work, infant, family et al), BUT on the H4 it doesn't take much time to check a few more.

One good reason to NOT follow too many might be the high correlation among so many pairs.

Another possible good reason is the potential for multiple, significant draw downs if you are in, say, on the EJ, GJ, AJ. [ok, none of us would do that] Well, you all get the idea.

Anyway, what are you all trading? Should it really be limited to just 3 or 4 pairs?

Best to all, Forest
  • #292
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:35pm Sep 8, 2010 9:35pm
Hi Forest-Sea,

To answer some of your questions...I do follow/watch 8 pairs( AU, EU, GU, EurGbp, UCad, GJ, EJ, UJ). However, as you said, I mainly just trade GU, EU and EJ. Occasionally I'll take an AU or UCad trade. But I have found that the previous three mentioned are more than enough for me(100pips/week goal). And as you mentioned, most of those pairs are correlated...so I wouldn't want to be long AU, GU, EU or short GJ, EJ, UJ all at the same time and have them go against me. Another thing is with the new margin requirements in the US it's probably not too easy to open multiple trades. The EG and UJ pairs I typically don't trade, I just use them to see how the other pairs are moving...and I find that GJ just has some pretty wild swings at times so I just stay away. Hope that helps, let me know if you have any more questions.
  • #293
  • Sep 9, 2010 1:28am Sep 9, 2010 1:28am
Two,

Have you attempted to put together a win/loss ratio for the 4 Hour KISS?

This is quite different from 'how many pips' or 'how much money.' Those are personal and depend on account size and the size of lots one takes at entry.

I can't put an exact % on it, but it looks like no less than 70% of your entries are closed with some profit, often at your TP point.

Just wondered if you could offer something a little more exact.

Bottom line, no one trades any system for month after month without success. I heartily congratulate you, Andrew, for building a simple but ongoing successful system.

You don't trade Fridays. Good idea not to carry positions over the weekend, of course, so enjoy your weekend and three trading days off.

Best to you, Forest
  • #294
  • Sep 9, 2010 6:28am Sep 9, 2010 6:28am
Quoting Forest-Sea
Two,

Have you attempted to put together a win/loss ratio for the 4 Hour KISS?

This is quite different from 'how many pips' or 'how much money.' Those are personal and depend on account size and the size of lots one takes at entry.

I can't put an exact % on it, but it looks like no less than 70% of your entries are closed with some profit, often at your TP point.

Just wondered if you could offer something a little more exact.

Bottom line, no one trades any system for month after month without success. I heartily congratulate...
Hi Forest,

You are correct, I don't think this method is less than 70% win/loss...typically it's 80% or better. But like you said, it depends on the individual trader and how patient they are at waiting for the proper signals...how disciplined they are at waiting for pullbacks to enter at/near the 20ma(not getting in too early or late to trades).

If you look at the trades this week just on the 3 pairs I normally trade. GU gave a short setup on Tuesday good for 75pips and both EU and EJ gave short setups Wednesday morning good for 50 and 75ipps respectively. 3 trades, all winners(100%) for a total of 200pips! But how many traders are patient enough to NOT jump into any trades on Sunday or Monday???? This method is about 95% mental discipline and chart reading. I hope you are finding success with it!
  • #295
  • Sep 9, 2010 7:43am Sep 9, 2010 7:43am
I'm still mental, but the success rate is good. every once in a while i do something stupid and waste some capital from my account. but this is a labour of love. i enjoy it and its starting to work. not something that takes a month of knowledge and you are there. but the success rate seems 80%. with some chart reading.

211 and i have traded together for over 3 years. we watch the same pairs. our systems are almost identical. we have researched and tried many different things. one of the biggest things we came up with was to watch price action. then we discovered price action in the direction of the trend.

my biggest problem is not waiting for the candle close. look at ej and eu yesterday. i had a nice short entry on both of those. what did i do? took profits early. did i need to? apparently not

if i conscientiously waited for the close, i know i'd do better income wise. so that is my new goal.

Wait for the close whether i'm staring at the charts or not.
  • #296
  • Sep 9, 2010 8:53am Sep 9, 2010 8:53am
I like this system very much.

I have made 5 trades within one week (from Sept. 2nd until today) and all of them were winners.

All 5 trades with TP between 40-50 pips and SL between 35-45 pips. Most of these trades were good for 70 pips and one trade (EJ) even for 250 pips!

I always check also daily and weekly time frame and only trade when the MA of all 3 time frames move in the same direction.

Thanks 211 for this great system.
  • #297
  • Sep 9, 2010 10:13am Sep 9, 2010 10:13am
Well, I am behind 211, Scottie and fguru on the patience and mental angle so crucial to success . . . BUT you are really helping me edge in the right direction.

I think what I am trying to show myself is that the KISS rules followed pretty carefully do yield that 70-80% win rate. Jump in too soon, or skip one of the 1-2-3 guides and negative things might happen. Of course, the counter in my mind to this is that those 'no quite qualified' entries can lead to bigger gains if you are not trading for a fixed number of pips. (I suppose this means you can and do really watch the screen during live trades)

Are any of you taking multiple entries and making a fixed profit your TP1 then you keep going with a second or possibly more positions?

Thanks to all and good weekend.
  • #298
  • Sep 10, 2010 5:14am Sep 10, 2010 5:14am
Quoting Forest-Sea
Well, I am behind 211, Scottie and fguru on the patience and mental angle so crucial to success . . . BUT you are really helping me edge in the right direction.

I think what I am trying to show myself is that the KISS rules followed pretty carefully do yield that 70-80% win rate....

Someday I'm going to bring myself to hold the trades or part of the trade and use these targets as take profits #1. being able to follow the ma's in the direction of the trend could be very profitable several times a year. I just haven't been able to let myself do that yet. also, i haven't been able to walk away from the charts very long when in a trade. with this system, i think it would greatly help my profitability. the one thing to remember, if i could at least hold consistently for the target, this will be a great living.

by the way, i just went long ej. see where it leads. i don't like the macds being down, but everything else is starting to line up.
  • #299
  • Sep 10, 2010 2:00pm Sep 10, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
Well, I am behind 211, Scottie and fguru on the patience and mental angle so crucial to success . . . BUT you are really helping me edge in the right direction.

I think what I am trying to show myself is that the KISS rules followed pretty carefully do yield that 70-80% win rate. Jump in too soon, or skip one of the 1-2-3 guides and negative things might happen. Of course, the counter in my mind to this is that those 'no quite qualified' entries can lead to bigger gains if you are not trading for a fixed number of pips. (I suppose...

Hi Forest-Sea,

I don't recommend taking multiple entries UNLESS you are cutting your lot size in half in order to account for 2 trades being open. Always use good money management, don't over leverage yourself or trade too big of a lot size!

Now that being said, my target prices of either 50pips or 75pips depending on the pair are what I like to use. Anyone can feel free to use something else...and there have been many cases where I have seen that leaving a trade open longer, instead of taking the 75pip hard limit, would have gotten a trader 100, 200, even 500pips if the trend was strong enough! However, how often do those type of trades happen? Each trader has to figure out what type of trader they are! Can they be happy taking 10 trades where you're looking to get 50pip winners about 80% win/loss ratio??? Or can they be happy taking 10 trades where you're going for 500pips and only win about 10% of the time??? In the end, it would appear both types of traders would get 500pips...each individual just has to figure out how they want to go about it(or what they are comfortable with).

Have a good weekend!
  • #300
  • Sep 12, 2010 9:45pm Sep 12, 2010 9:45pm
All right, I am going to watch each candle end/start for the KISS this week, including the one that rolls in the middle of my night.

In looking at where we are now, it raised another question.

I have been reluctant to take any trade in which the slope of the LWMA 20 was not at least slightly moving in the direction of the cross and new trend.

However, I am seeing that the touch or cross of the 20 will not infrequently occur PRIOR to the 20 turning (up or down).

211, Scottie and all, what do you guys do in this case? Let's say the MACD bars are clearly moving in your direction and price has crossed the 20, BUT the 20 is not yet flattened out completely or turned.

Good trading week to all.

Forest
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