james16 Chart Thread

I started trading so much better when I discovered that I could draw those really cool looking arrows that you are always using in your videos. I was sweating bullets during that 1.3 pip drawdown. Whew!

K.I.S.S.

hahah I bet, that must have been difficult to deal with

Nice trade Kiss

Personally, I am still with daily and weekly trades ONLY. However, I did not like the close of this bar. Looks it rejected at 9140 which seems to be a ppz at H4 charts (FXDD).

Now it is retracing and looks like rejected at 9160 and if the next candle closes below 9140, it can be traded. (Only my opinion)

However, the next PPZ is at 9110.

Yeah, it is a pass for sure.

Excellent
sweating bullets, huh? that must be a 100/1000 standard lot trade. hahah

Hey joelcf,
were your eurchf sell orders triggered already?
sell limits or sell stops?

so, u SNB guys still dont care about the further CHF strength huh.... or are u in talks with BOJ & other Central bank's for a concerted intervention

Thanks!

Picked up another handful on the spike through 131, would have done alot more if I was active....I love my francs. Oh well.

They absolutely care about the CHF strength; it's the whole problem. It's a bit of a difficult spot to be in - you either lose (tons of) money in the currency markets, or you lose (probably more) export dollars, hit unemployment, consumer confidence falls off a cliff, the economy contracts, production slows, and so on. Isnt pretty.

Officially, as they try to cram into every release, the SNB doesnt have a 'target' exchange rate, which is different from some other centrals. They only intervene on economic grounds, and alot of those have disappeared - deflation (or inflation) isnt much of a concern anymore, exports are moving along nicely, growth is pretty solid, unemployment is reverting. Even though they lost a metric f*ckton on fx trades, they did their job and seemingly did it well. They almost sound as complacent as us Aussies sometimes now.

Which is why they have been largely absent of late, I guess.

But some of those concerns are starting to creep back in, and (as you know), the franc has been appreciating pretty strongly. So it is possible that there might be some kind of buttonmashing in the future. I wouldnt count on it - though they are pretty crafty about it.

They know they cant hold the franc down with sheer weight (aka, the BoJ approach), and they cant do it for a prolonged period (that would really 'reset' market expectations) without the help of the other centrals (ie, the US and ECB) who arent in the position to do so...

...so they engage in skirmishes. Fire off a few rounds every now and then to try and keep the speculators on their toes... introduce a bit of risk back into the market, rather than give every man and his dog (St Bernard?) a chance to pile into the franc. As soon as you make it a two sided market, the whole dynamic changes. Do it at quiet times, either holidays, slow sessions or (best of all) around some other news releases, combine it with some (increasingly less effective) scary language, and hopefully you at least slow the appreciation. Well, that's what I would do

But even that doesnt seem to be effective anymore. More and more people are realising that you can just fade the interventions (or any real spike) and mint money. Which is why we have seen the increasing strength lately. Of course, they could play that too (think a false breakout type trade, but on a huge scale), but it really depends on whether they need to.

If the strengthening continues, and depending on what employment, GDP and euro stability do (another round of Euro scares would definitely do it)... we might see some fireworks. Maybe.

That's my uneducated, uninformed and baseless opinion, anyways

BoJ is a bit of a mystery to me. Ozawa is unpredictable, especially in his relationship with the US... but he keeps yelling and demanding, and he is increasingly able to really stir trouble.

How effective they could really be is debateable anyways. I think if they were going to, they would have to be tactical about it and do it during the low vol of the holiday - and they didnt... I just dont have enough of a feel for it that I am comfortable taking any position atm. I think alot of people who love the AUDJPY carry are thinking the same.. Maybe PB knows more, being Japanese and all?

I mean, uh.. how about them pinbars?!

Also, I'm not Swiss. I just like their watches and chocolate ...among other things

ah.... i see.
so your trades were all over the place.
i had trades on on that spike towards 1.3160, but mismanaged it (had other trades being babysitted) so they turned into -8-10pips rather than +/-30pips.
was looking for 1.3040-70 minor PPZ to hold (for possible buy entries), but it didnt.... thanks to u SNB guys

thanks for the lengthy response & the pics.... like u, i love Swiss chocolates & watches... & the 'among other thingies'

1.3010, but didnt get a decent entry.
1.3110, and did.
Then another around the same level on monday, albeit low timeframe .

The 1hr pin on Friday? Or the monday one? Either were great entries imho... but you shoulda held it for the swing at least, if not the long term. Easy to say in hindsight, I guess

I'm suprised you werent in on the 1.300 breakout/retrace!

Really? That old line about snatching pennies from in front of a freight train comes to mind - you are braver than I am!

low TFs are ok

that was last Friday right?
i was having internet problems last week... no internet on Friday(good thing my other positons were unscathed)

it was a Monday trade.. no PA per se... more about the 1.3100 break.
im not built yet to trade long term... unless the position is already on my side


braver? hahah, perhaps...
but just to clarify... i did not enter there, you SNB guys were dumping hard

In an AUD/USD short. Tripple top which broke down through a ppz. Rather small position as the location of the tripple is not optimal(not at swing high). Entry was at .91145 currently at 2.5 pips. Will post a chart when trade is closed.

EDIT: Still in the trade, saw as much as 10pips, now around breakeven as price retests ppz level around .91144. Seeing dollar strentgh across the board on all major pairs, so I will let this one run it's course.

Very nice trade ! The PPZ on your weekly chart is that the high of previous week ? And your targets are these the high of W34 and the low of W32 ? Where did you place your SL ?

Hi all..... just wanted to let all know that someone has posted smething not soo nice about our main tutor James16 out on the jackos thread........we having read James16 thread should not look too deep into it otherwise we go a similar direction.....looks like someone got screwed and is now comparing Jacko with James16.....how sad?

here.
check out the yellow arrows on the first chart of that post u quoted

i think that's the natural progression of things.
since this thread is on the Commercial section of FF, all apples in this forum are 'bad apples' ---- 1 of my immediate fears & expected repercussions (as early as July2009 when the Commercial section was formed: here & here)

just let them ramble, rumble & mumble.
insulate but dont isolatehttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif

slick indeed

How do you guys determine that a trendline,resistance-support,PPZ or Fibonacci levels gots broken or is only retracing?

My problem is that i take a long on a break of a PPZ but then it is a fals signal and it turns back downwards.

Waiting...

Okay, AUD/USD closed. Saw as much as 16pips, was aiming for the next ppz and thus placed my tp just above it, price started to move against my position as we saw a bit of dollar weakness enter market, probably just a small retracement if we look at Eur/Usd. Anyway, after seeing 16pips I wouldn't let a trade run negative on such a small timeframe, I took half of my postion off at +5pips, the rest at b/e.

In the words of Steve Cohen of SAC. "If you are in doubt take in half, you can allways put it back on again, if you take in half two times whats left of the position is not a big deal"

EDIT: the TPLC in the chart should be TTLC (TRIPPLE TOP LOWER CLOSE)

Hello john225,
check out Sir bug's chart above.
a PPZ or S/R was broken (red horizontal line), & he's waiting for price to test it & show a bearish PA to go short. (some dont wait for PA, immediately go short at/near that red PPZ line)

u want a TL, S/R, PPZ, Fib level to hold... & have a unidirectional bias (meaning price breaks them, then shows inclination to go in that same direction-- whatever the direction of current trend).... rather than have price whipsaw through them or price make a significant turn around
Hope that helps & makes sense