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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #23,261
  • Edited 11:40pm Sep 1, 2010 7:55pm | Edited 11:40pm
Quoting smikester
I noticed August was a tricky month to trade. Well, for me, June and July were, too.

The good news is that it is September now, the big boys are back at work and volume should return to normal soon. hoorah!!
  • #23,262
  • Edited 11:47pm Sep 1, 2010 8:02pm | Edited 11:47pm
I found this interesting article by Kathy Lien.


Forex Trading Volume Officially Hits $4 Trillion

http://www.kathylien.com/site/wp-con...s/calendar.png September 1, 2010

This morning the Bank of International Settlements released its Triennial FX survey which is basically the market’s benchmark for forex volume and turnover. To no one’s surprise, volume has surged over the past 3 years. Between April 2007 and April 2010, global foreign exchange market increased by 20 percent from $3.3 trillion to $4.0 trillion, which is now the golden number for forex volume.
Reading between the lines, we can tell that a large part of the increase in volume is due to the trading activities of RETAIL traders! (Yes, we are making a BIG difference) According to the BIS report, 48% of the growth was in spot transactions which represents 37% of the total turnover (or total FX flow). The report also says that “the higher global foreign exchange market turnover is associated with the increased trading activity of “other financial institutions” (think retail forex brokers). Turnover in this category rose 42% and for the first time ever, reporting dealers (banks) did more transactions with “other financial institutions” than with other banks.
  • #23,263
  • Sep 2, 2010 1:41am Sep 2, 2010 1:41am
Hi, I have experienced the same things and decided to give up trading the forex for at least three months. I withdrew all the money from my live account and closed it at breakeven which means no gain no loss in a year time, but if you consider the amount of time I dedicated to trading that's definitely a loss. I took this decision because it was altering my everyday mood which means I was happy if trading went well and unhappy when it didn't and that is not good. There are more important things in life than trading the forex. It must be a pleasant hobby that may turn into a job but it takes several years.
Take a break and see if your life is better without trading and then decide whether it is worth going back to it. That's what I'll do. Good luck in life!!
Cheers

Quoting silverfox88
I am getting very tired of trading forex!

[color=navy][font=Times New Roman]Why is it others can trade so smoothly while I am still riding on the roller coaster after so many months? After successfully making progress for continuous 3 months, I though I am ready for this system but it proved that I am wrong! I made 400 pips in May, 87 pips in June and 156 pips in July. Just when I though I am getting familiar with the system, I lost 320 pips in August and today in first day of September, I put in...
  • #23,264
  • Sep 2, 2010 5:09am Sep 2, 2010 5:09am
Quoting silverfox88
I am getting very tired of trading forex!

[color=navy][font=Times New Roman]Why is it others can trade so smoothly while I am still riding on the roller coaster after so many months? After successfully making progress for continuous 3 months, I though I am ready for this system but it proved that I am wrong! I made 400 pips in May, 87 pips in June and 156 pips in July. Just when I though I am getting familiar with the system, I lost 320 pips in August and today in first day of September, I put in...
Silverfox, thanks for the post and for sharing your thoughts. I have similar situation or even worse. Fx requires a a lot of patience. I hope to not give up.

Hope experienced traders will submit a warm understanding, and how to find a solution.
  • #23,265
  • Sep 2, 2010 5:36am Sep 2, 2010 5:36am
Quoting baco75
Hi, I have experienced the same things and decided to give up trading the forex for at least three months. I withdrew all the money from my live account and closed it at breakeven which means no gain no loss in a year time, but if you consider the amount of time I dedicated to trading that's definitely a loss. I took this decision because it was altering my everyday mood which means I was happy if trading went well and unhappy when it didn't and that is not good. There are more important things in life than trading the forex. It must be a pleasant...
Baco75,

I have the same feeling with you. If trading forex makes me feel happy when winning and frustrated when losing, then why trade? Might as well find something that will makes feel happy and do it! However, I am so passion about doing chart analysis and don't think I can quit so easily! Have been trying very hard but still unable to do good trading constantly. What is my problem? How can I solve my problem? I am still thinking very hard...
  • #23,266
  • Sep 2, 2010 5:40am Sep 2, 2010 5:40am
Quoting lukis
Silverfox, thanks for the post and for sharing your thoughts. I have similar situation or even worse. Fx requires a a lot of patience. I hope to not give up.

Hope experienced traders will submit a warm understanding, and how to find a solution.
Hi Lukis,

Thanks for your comment. I understand trading requires a lot of patience but it is difficult when you see potential position moving. It is difficult to leave it alone and I guess that is one of the reason why I failed. As I mentioned earlier, I am so passion about trading and don't think I will give up so easily. Hope one fine day, I can produce better result trades after trades, weeks after weeks and years after years. I know my biggest enemy is myself but how can I defeat myself?? How?
  • #23,267
  • Sep 2, 2010 5:58am Sep 2, 2010 5:58am
I went long this morning for GBPUSD when the price move back to EMA21 after advance of the big candle. I went long because I saw the long tail and next big candle which I feel there is some strong buying and price might test SMA89 again. However, price went all the way down and I got burn another 100 pips. Where is my mistake?
Attached Image
  • #23,268
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:38am Sep 2, 2010 6:38am
These always seem easy with hindsight and before I even begin I'm going to admit to the same sort of mistakes.

Anyway below is a chart of GBP/USD and it is on a different H4 feed from Silverfox's chart but the principle is the same. The green trend line is the uptrend. The red trend lines are the downtrend. The MA (89ma in this case) does a similar job but I prefer trend lines. Personally, I avoid taking trades against the trend even if they look good. There has to be a daily close above or below a trend line before I even consider changing direction. Even then, it has to be a good candle. Using MA's I would stick to the same principle. I personally use the 200ma and glance at it on every chart and time frame. I'm wary of trading counter to that MA.

I've marked potential entry points with grey vertical lines and these jumped out at me. I am no expert with the H4 MACD strategy and no doubt someone will be able to mark TC trade opportunities and such for me.

These MACD entries seem quite late to me but it's part of the strategy and selecting TP levels and SL levels is where I would lack knowledge of Philip Nel's strategy but I did notice not one of those entries broke the previous bar. If that had been the SL then better than 1:1 was available.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd10090h4.gif Size: 34 KB


Click on the chart twice to get a better view.
Gone to a better place
  • #23,269
  • Sep 2, 2010 8:31am Sep 2, 2010 8:31am
Quoting smikester
These always seem easy with hindsight and before I even begin I'm going to admit to the same sort of mistakes.

Anyway below is a chart of GBP/USD and it is on a different H4 feed from Silverfox's chart but the principle is the same. The green trend line is the uptrend. The red trend lines are the downtrend. The MA (89ma in this case) does a similar job but I prefer trend lines. Personally, I avoid taking trades against the trend even if they look good. There has to be a daily close above or below a trend line before I even consider changing direction....
Hi smikester,

Thanks for your comment and chart. You vertical line seems to be working very well with the MACD but why I am not able to catch it ?
  • #23,270
  • Edited 9:03pm Sep 2, 2010 8:16pm | Edited 9:03pm
Quoting silverfox88
I went long this morning for GBPUSD when the price move back to EMA21 after advance of the big candle. I went long because I saw the long tail and next big candle which I feel there is some strong buying and price might test SMA89 again. However, price went all the way down and I got burn another 100 pips. Where is my mistake?
Hi Silverfox,

Firstly you traded during NFP week. I try to stay away during NFP week because all that happens is that the larger traders are positioning themsleves for the NFP news. It is a very indecisive week as traders ask "Will the figures be good?" or "Will the figures be bad?. There will be very little movement until the figures are released. It is more likely that you will get whipsawed out due to the indecisiveness especially if your stop is not big.

Technically, we must always look at the daily chart first. There has been no daily trend for the last few days (as people are waiting for the NFP). It is sitting at the 38.2 fib as support but there is very strong resistance at the 1.55 level also. Notice that the DAILY 200 SMA (Green) is also providing resistance.
Notice also that all the MAs are coming together on the daily which shows that there is no trend and we should not be trading right now.

On the 4 hr, the 89 (blue) is still above the 21 and the 8 which means that you should not be going long. If you go long, it will be countertrend. Trading the pair as it "pulls above the 21, pulls back to the 21 and then goes to the 89" is a countertrend trade and does have its risks even though it is part of Phil's rules.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gud1.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu4 hr.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #23,271
  • Sep 4, 2010 10:32am Sep 4, 2010 10:32am
Quoting xeneric
Hi Silverfox,

Firstly you traded during NFP week. I try to stay away during NFP week because all that happens is that the larger traders are positioning themsleves for the NFP news. It is a very indecisive week as traders ask "Will the figures be good?" or "Will the figures be bad?. There will be very little movement until the figures are released. It is more likely that you will get whipsawed out due to the indecisiveness especially if your stop is not big.

Technically, we must always look at the daily chart first. There has been no daily...
Hi xeneric,

Thank you for your time for pointing out my mistakes. I guess my skill is not there yet and need more training and guidance from you guys. Once again, thank you so much for your help!
  • #23,272
  • Sep 4, 2010 11:53am Sep 4, 2010 11:53am
Hi all

I do not use meta Trader I use the chart service of IG Index it is ok, is there any way i can set the macd up using them or do i really have to install mt..

many thanks and sorry if this is a dim question.

Regards

Dave UK
  • #23,273
  • Sep 4, 2010 8:58pm Sep 4, 2010 8:58pm
Quoting silverfox88
Hi Lukis,

Thanks for your comment. I understand trading requires a lot of patience but it is difficult when you see potential position moving. It is difficult to leave it alone and I guess that is one of the reason why I failed. As I mentioned earlier, I am so passion about trading and don't think I will give up so easily. Hope one fine day, I can produce better result trades after trades, weeks after weeks and years after years. I know my biggest enemy is myself but how can I defeat myself?? How?

so what aspects of trading are u passionate about? making money? or trading itself? if it's making money, then make ur system as mechanical as possible especially if you can't control your emotions. If it's the excitement of trading, then maybe should just trade with a demo
  • #23,274
  • Sep 5, 2010 9:02pm Sep 5, 2010 9:02pm
Quoting davidnorman
Hi all

I do not use meta Trader I use the chart service of IG Index it is ok, is there any way i can set the macd up using them or do i really have to install mt..

many thanks and sorry if this is a dim question.

Regards

Dave UK
Hi Dave,

I would download metatrader if I were you. MT4 is a very good platform compared to some of the charting platforms out there and is worth downloading in demo at least.
  • #23,275
  • Sep 5, 2010 9:22pm Sep 5, 2010 9:22pm
Quoting silverfox88
Hi xeneric,

Thank you for your time for pointing out my mistakes. I guess my skill is not there yet and need more training and guidance from you guys. Once again, thank you so much for your help!
Keep up the determination and hardwork, Silverfox. You're on your way to being successful.
  • #23,276
  • Sep 6, 2010 8:46am Sep 6, 2010 8:46am
Quoting yuan83
so what aspects of trading are u passionate about? making money? or trading itself? if it's making money, then make ur system as mechanical as possible especially if you can't control your emotions. If it's the excitement of trading, then maybe should just trade with a demo
I am passionate about doing chart analysis especially when my judgment is correct. Of course all traders in forex will wish to make money from trading, be it a little or a lot. Emotion, is the biggest enemy of all traders, I believe and I am trying hard to beat it...
  • #23,277
  • Sep 6, 2010 9:48am Sep 6, 2010 9:48am
Quoting silverfox88
I am passionate about doing chart analysis especially when my judgment is correct. Of course all traders in forex will wish to make money from trading, be it a little or a lot. Emotion, is the biggest enemy of all traders, I believe and I am trying hard to beat it...
guess either u have to make the trading as simple and mechanical as possible, which is really, just to stick to a set of rules to enter a trade, and to be as not discretionary as possible,

or ya u just have to control ur emotions for every trade.


u need to find a system that suits u...gd luck
  • #23,278
  • Sep 7, 2010 5:14am Sep 7, 2010 5:14am
Hi guys/girls,

Just dropping by. I've been leaving world of forex more than a year now but I still miss it. Seems to me that this thread still doing good. Where is Palmer anyway?

Cheers
  • #23,279
  • Sep 7, 2010 5:21am Sep 7, 2010 5:21am
Quoting silverfox88
I am passionate about doing chart analysis especially when my judgment is correct. Of course all traders in forex will wish to make money from trading, be it a little or a lot. Emotion, is the biggest enemy of all traders, I believe and I am trying hard to beat it...
What pair (OR pairs) you trade the most? I suggest EURusd is always the best pair to study (based on my experience) but you can also try AUDusd / NZDusd / AUDjpy and NZDjpy.

Try to use momentum and stochastic indys as well. They are very good as additional helps in your charting...

All the best...
  • #23,280
  • Sep 7, 2010 5:41am Sep 7, 2010 5:41am
Quoting orangeRANGE
What pair (OR pairs) you trade the most? I suggest EURusd is always the best pair to study (based on my experience) but you can also try AUDusd / NZDusd / AUDjpy and NZDjpy.

Try to use momentum and stochastic indys as well. They are very good as additional helps in your charting...

All the best...
I look at opportunity from the 6 pairs Phillip review weekly. EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD & EURJPY. Thanks for the suggestion. But I guess I would like to keep it simple, with only the MA, MACD and ADX.

All the best to you too!

By the way, I shorted this morning USDJPY at 84.171 with sl 84.371 & tp at 83.671, still riding on it now.

Finally, made the right decision for a trade. Got to try harder after this...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.gif Size: 21 KB
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