DislikedKosai 80% probability is not after the fact it depends on the Rythm & harmony of price & your pivot selection. I am also new to ML trading . I have been trading this from last one year or so but after trading and putting 1000's of hours I know for sure 80% probability of hitting ML is very much there.
Here is one example I posted here somewhere i started shorting UJ @ 89.00 since than I traded this fork 4 times in 240-min time frame.
Regards,
TAQIgnored
Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)
- #2,502
- Aug 31, 2010 1:16pm Aug 31, 2010 1:16pm
- | Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,231 Posts | Online Now
- #2,505
- Edited 4:32pm Aug 31, 2010 4:25pm | Edited 4:32pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Just be the witness. | 1,089 Posts
Be like water.
Hi all,
I am also using this method. Here is my gold-H1 chart.
Enjoy your day
Lotus.
link:
http://ca5.upanh.com/12.663.16890690.EbZ0/gold.png
I am also using this method. Here is my gold-H1 chart.
Enjoy your day
Lotus.
link:
http://ca5.upanh.com/12.663.16890690.EbZ0/gold.png
- #2,511
- Sep 1, 2010 10:18am Sep 1, 2010 10:18am
- | Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,231 Posts | Online Now
- #2,516
- Sep 2, 2010 11:31pm Sep 2, 2010 11:31pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,016 Posts
Thinking of SHORT???
Some opinions for you...
I don't know whether you traded the AU short or not, but I looked at your chart and noticed that your pitchfork (Black on my chart) had some decent resonance with some price swings.
However, the Red pitchfork shown also has a lot of resonance (but with more intermediate pivots, less so with the major ones compared to black). In some sense, both have decent resonance.
However, the trouble (IMO) with both Black and Red pitchforks is that neither one of them has a fixed price/time anchor for the first point. These are arbitrary APO pitchforks (Alternate Point of Origin).
While APO's can work, my preference is to find 3 actual strong pivots on which to base an Andrews PF, and then also consider various PF transformations (e.g. Modified Schiff, Schiff, Price-of-Pt3 (Catalin), or others).
The one other thing against the idea of going short at the time was how straight up and strong the advance was, without any clue of slowing down. I'm actually surprised a bit that it overshot the Black by only a little, then did come back down a bit. If you went short where you were thinking of doing so, looks like a S/L of -30 would have been good enough to get +35 or so before yet another climb above the black PF.
I don't have a strong guess as to where it's going from here. Good strong bullish move may continue after consolidating here for now. Could go higher, but there's more resistance to clear (I see 0.9155-ish). On the bear side, price has retraced up just shy of 78.6% of the August 6-25th move down. There is now a small H&S at the top, and starting to see lower-lows now. Guess we'll see if it already topped or not. (A fairly useless opinion I know
)
