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AUD/USD

  • #22,821
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:26am Sep 3, 2010 11:26am
Another test of the daily high? I'll probably short this one.
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Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_8 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 33 KB
  • #22,822
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:38am Sep 3, 2010 11:38am
Looks like the DOW is not going down. Considering it's past noon. I am going to stay out of this pair.

What a messy day
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #22,823
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:01pm Sep 3, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting mry2001
USDJPY is going up.

It is funny AUDUSD also going up.
dollar-yen is movement is mainly based on usd jpy bond yield differential. aussie is movement is correlated to equities and commodities, which are on the bid today.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,824
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:02pm Sep 3, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting kandarv
A lesser bad number still is good news, risk-on?
Many people on the market were positioned for a negative 100 or more print.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,825
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:03pm Sep 3, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting Gar
why the hell are we rallying off the positive US data?
If the data is slightly better than expected, USD would weaken. If the data were far better or far worse than expected, USD would strengthen. Were not at an extreme to convince traders that the rate outlook within the next zear would change or that we are going into a recession.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,826
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:11pm Sep 3, 2010 12:11pm
Short @ .9157, targeting .9127, stop-loss .9177.
  • #22,827
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:15pm Sep 3, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
If the data is slightly better than expected, USD would weaken. If the data were far better or far worse than expected, USD would strengthen. Were not at an extreme to convince traders that the rate outlook within the next zear would change or that we are going into a recession.
I look at the data and I am not convinced that it really is good at all. At first glance it appears somewhat good but not really. Just more smoke and mirrors to make the situation look better than it is. Even then they did not manage to make it look very good.
  • #22,828
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:17pm Sep 3, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting moonchild
I look at the data and I am not convinced that it really is good at all. At first glance it appears somewhat good but not really. Just more smoke and mirrors to make the situation look better than it is. Even then they did not manage to make it look very good.
Agree, smoke and mirrors. Nevertheless, better than expected.
  • #22,829
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:27pm Sep 3, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting Phonetic
added another 2 positions to my short at .9157 - holding for .70 - stop is .9257 on all positions.

.70? That's a bit much, but I see nothing but down for the next couple weeks at least.

.81 could happen in a month or so
  • #22,830
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:31pm Sep 3, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting moonchild
I look at the data and I am not convinced that it really is good at all. At first glance it appears somewhat good but not really. Just more smoke and mirrors to make the situation look better than it is. Even then they did not manage to make it look very good.
Well, the fact its "somewhat" good makes it good for risk on in the current situation. The market sees the chance of a double dip recession as less. Yet, the Federal Reserve will still be on hold over the next year and will not try to take out any liquidity. If they managed to truly make it look very good, the dollar would rise and likely the markets would fall. However, instead, we are seeing a goldilocks scenario.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,831
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:32pm Sep 3, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting Pickensrulz
.70? That's a bit much, but I see nothing but down for the next couple weeks at least.

.81 could happen in a month or so
I see 72 by March. 77 by years end. Going to have to see how equities play out next week. I don't think it can go much farther from here though.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,832
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:42pm Sep 3, 2010 12:42pm
market would need to retrace at least to 0.9105 (prerelease price). now this is to talk about something because I mostly trade within the firs 15 minutes of the release but working on a higher time frame strategy
  • #22,833
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:55pm Sep 3, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
Well, the fact its "somewhat" good makes it good for risk on in the current situation. The market sees the chance of a double dip recession as less. Yet, the Federal Reserve will still be on hold over the next year and will not try to take out any liquidity. If they managed to truly make it look very good, the dollar would rise and likely the markets would fall. However, instead, we are seeing a goldilocks scenario.


I would say more of the King`s New Clothes scenario.
  • #22,834
  • Sep 3, 2010 1:04pm Sep 3, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
I see 72 by March. 77 by years end. Going to have to see how equities play out next week. I don't think it can go much farther from here though.

I'm extremely bearish US equities for a while; four or five years at least. However, I believe that the USD will weaken when equities tumble. I see the current correlation reversing in early 2011. By end of 2012 I see the Aussie much much higher, but I'm kind of nuts too.
  • #22,835
  • Sep 4, 2010 2:45am Sep 4, 2010 2:45am
Quoting domino
yeah pretty much... weve lost our industrial base.. we provide free trade to countries raping us on rates trying to compete in an uneven playing field. ballooning debt huge unemployment goverment cover ups on key economic data... what do you do when your goverment acts like enron?

Hi mate, what do you mean by enron?
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #22,836
  • Sep 4, 2010 11:22am Sep 4, 2010 11:22am
Hi guys, been readingmy chart all day and it seems it will going down. any other people shorting AU?
  • #22,837
  • Sep 4, 2010 5:27pm Sep 4, 2010 5:27pm
Just found this Bearish Butterfly pattern completion, ready to go down, I'll just wait for confirmation before I short it. Hope this post helps you guys.

By the way, my first post, so, I could be wrong on this, so take care all.
Let me know your insights on this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_butterfly_3-09-10.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #22,838
  • Sep 5, 2010 5:50am Sep 5, 2010 5:50am
My weekly cycle analysis for this week is:

Critical Point 0.9225
Normal Range : 0.8973 - 0.9301
Resistance : 0.9536 // 0.9581
Support : 0.8992 // 0.9024

I will send the image soon.
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #22,839
  • Sep 5, 2010 8:43am Sep 5, 2010 8:43am
Quoting bskwak1124
Hi mate, what do you mean by enron?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron
  • #22,840
  • Sep 5, 2010 9:45am Sep 5, 2010 9:45am
Hi mate, thanks for the info.

What for staying in a place where you know is corrupted, like their banking system working dead (no gonna work with the trillion dollar backup plan), sooner or later, their currency will become a part of art. So what i will do, I would go into other sector of investment (i mean who really knows what is going).


have a weekend mate~
Logics do not apply in FOREX
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