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A Simple London Breakout V.2

  • #621
  • Edited 7:03am Sep 3, 2010 7:02am | Edited 7:03am
Quoting squalou
The box size is our SL.
I put 20 pips because i think that if the box is plotted at a "good" place, then we shouldn't need a bigger SL.SQ
Hi SQ, cannot follow the ideas or the arguments of this thread but love the indi (don't know about the EA).

Wouldn't normally post but as you say "While the cats away..."

My 'time' is 0600-0630 but the range is often too smakk and I am stopped out both sides, big losses. I wanted to have a 25 pip SL. You have just provided it! Many thanks.

Nobody needs to reply to this and Mer should just ignore it.

To JBS and XMPH, please stop your arguments here, I cannot keep up with them, please start your new thread, I am sure that it will be a good development. Using Mer as a springboard may be just the thing for a successful system.
  • #622
  • Edited 7:49am Sep 3, 2010 7:29am | Edited 7:49am
Quoting squalou
wow... this is turning into fight!

Johnny, Mer will certainly appreciate ideas towards improving the strategy.
However, as xmph pointed out, Mer has put a clear warning in post #1 about posting new ideas, and keep the strategy the way he has described it originally.
My point about letting it "go too far" is because we are now somehow the mice dancing in the house while the cat is not home...
Even if the mice actually think they are doing a great job and not fooling around, they don't know if the cat will like it when he's back.
I appreciate the...
Squalou,

Thanks for explaining so eloquently. I know what mer posted but he has already accepted the last revision and acknowledged the advantages.

I have given some thought to the problem of the box and to how it can be placed in the correct position. On the Stochastics indicator within the code is the line itself as you already know. I believe by setting the line as a Global Variable of the Client Terminal we can then determine the direction of this line by the code itself giving us a very good trend direction. Then it is just simply putting the box below the PA on an uptrend and above the PA on a downtrend.

The most important trade is the initial trade and the problem with using the 15 minute chart is the many ups and downs. Even the M15 trend from the last reversal point is not always what you get for direction at the London Open. Often this is a short counter trend before the trade with the trend shortly after the Open which is the true breakout of the PA with heavy volume. In any event the stochastics will show the direction at any particular space in time.

The ZigZag is a good indicator but you may want to look at the NonLag ZigZag which I posted earlier. It still repaints but usually an acceptable pivot has already been established before the open or just after.

I will continue looking for solutions.

Have a great day,

Johnny
  • #623
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:01am Sep 3, 2010 8:01am
Just a note that I have been following this thread from the beginning and see the point of JohnnyB's words. I am using the EA live and am very pleased with the results. Thanks and kudo to Squalou for the coding, Mer for the concept and Johnny for his S/R points.

Of the VERY FEW losses I have had. They have occured whenever the EA opens a position near a support or resistance line. The strongest gains seem to occur when the position is opened away or opposite from these lines.

Since I do not have the bank to run a martingale YET. I am running the EA during different times on 3 pairs. Single trades only. I.E. MaxTradesAllowedPerSession=TRUE. In backtesting I have gotten a 80%+ winning rate on these three pairs and the profit to boot. With each pair doubling or tripling the account within a year. But i fear my settings may be too far away from the intent of this thread to post here. I would be happy to share those times and settings with anyone wanting to PM me or if a new thread is opened as I don't want take this thread away from the prescribed method. But if anyone does not have the money to run a marty. This is still a winning EA.

So in summary, optimize the times per pair, Don't go short near a support line, don't go long near a resistance line. I think it's awesome. Great work ALL.
  • #624
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:55am Sep 3, 2010 8:55am
Quoting ibthescottyb
Just a note that I have been following this thread from the beginning and see the point of JohnnyB's words. I am using the EA live and am very pleased with the results. Thanks and kudo to Squalou for the coding, Mer for the concept and Johnny for his S/R points.

Of the VERY FEW losses I have had. They have occured whenever the EA opens a position near a support or resistance line. The strongest gains seem to occur when the position is opened away or opposite from these lines.

Since I do not have the bank to run a martingale YET. I am running...
ibthescottyb,

You're welcome but this has just begun to be great and with luck and determination it will be another "Black Box". High 90's percent wins is attainable.

Go ahead and posts your results and settings. As squalou has said the cat's away and we mice are raiding the cupboards, having wrestling matches and getting into all sorts of trouble. I feel like one of the Gremlins in the old ladies house rigging the automatic stair climber for Granny's send off out the upstairs window. So what's a couple of more posts? Mer is only going to have just one heart attack. We might as well make it a big one. We can always blame xmph.

Go ahead take your best shot.

he made me do it
  • #625
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:02am Sep 3, 2010 9:02am
Hi ibthescottyb,

I am new to FF & am only a Junior member.

can you tell me what you have for the optimized times for each pair? thanx :-)
  • #626
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:13am Sep 3, 2010 9:13am
hi

I'm glad you are doing well with it, but be careful with live trading the EA.
It is ok trading only 1 trade at a time, but i have not yet released the fix for the Trades2&3 not moving to BE after TP1 hit.

You are welcome to post your settings and results here, even if it's not the regular "London breakout" time range.

It will give us another exploration opportunity, and another reason for believing that this strategy IS profitable!

Real (live) results ARE valuable.

Thanks for your contribution.

SQ
  • #627
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:18am Sep 3, 2010 9:18am
Quoting Phreddy
Hi SQ, cannot follow the ideas or the arguments of this thread but love the indi (don't know about the EA).

Wouldn't normally post but as you say "While the cats away..."

My 'time' is 0600-0630 but the range is often too smakk and I am stopped out both sides, big losses. I wanted to have a 25 pip SL. You have just provided it! Many thanks.

Nobody needs to reply to this and Mer should just ignore it.

To JBS and XMPH, please stop your arguments here, I cannot keep up with them, please start your new thread, I am sure that it will be a good...
Phreddy,

You've got it all wrong. Weez all here to save Mer from his inevitable blown account on a run away Martingale System. Xmph and I were just creating a diversion away from our main objective. If we started are own thread we'd have to kidnap squalou to do the coding. We figure if we get the win/loss ratio in the stratosphere he'll never have to go to the Mart.

Here's hoping Mer has a sense of humor.
  • #628
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:31am Sep 3, 2010 9:31am
Am I the only one that reached 1597 mart sequence on the usdcad?

Settings FXDD GMT +3

SendTrades=1
Lot=0.01000000
MaxRisk=0.00000000
MagicNumber=0
StartTime=08:00
EndTime=11:14
SessionEndTime=20:00
MinBoxSizeInPips=25
MaxBoxSizeInPips=100
LimitBoxToMaxSize=1
StickBoxToLatestExtreme=0
TP1Factor=1.00000000
TP3Factor=2.61800000
TP2_help=TP2 is half-way between TP1 and TP3
SLFactor=1.00000000
LevelsResizeFactor=1.00000000
TradeComment=3 Tier London Breakout
MaxTradesAllowedPerSession=0
MaxLossesAllowedPerSession=0
BreakEvenProfitInPips=1
_mart1=----MARTINGALE multipliers sequence:
_mart2=----not used when first multiplier is 0:
martingale_sequence=1,2,5,13,34,89,233,610,1597,4181
AutoMartingale=0
ResetMartAtFirstProfit=0
Slippage=3
MaxSpread=10
brokerIsECN=0
ShowBoxes=1
BoxColorOK=15128749
BoxColorNOK=255
BoxColorMAX=42495
LevelColor=0
SessionColor=15134970
FibLength=12
showProfitZone=1
ProfitColor=9498256
objPrefix=EA-LB2-
Gap=
_other_marts=---Other martingale sequences, in decreasing aggressivity(risk) order:
aggressive_fibonacci_sequence=1,2,5,13,34,89,233,610,1597,4181
powers_of_2_sequence=1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024,2048,4096
fibonacci_sequence=1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377,610,987,1597
mild_fibonacci_sequence=1,2,3,4,6,9,13,19,28,41,60,88,129,189,277,406
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #629
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:35am Sep 3, 2010 9:35am
Quoting squalou
hi

I'm glad you are doing well with it, but be careful with live trading the EA.
It is ok trading only 1 trade at a time, but i have not yet released the fix for the Trades2&3 not moving to BE after TP1 hit.
trades 2 and 3 do move to BE after TP1 is hit "IF" the PA allows it. I say that because we all know that MT4 works on a tick by tick basis. Also, It only can send one signal at a time.

Let's say we are in a long position. The PA moves up and TP1 is hit. That order is at the server already so it gets fulfilled. However, let's say the next tick after TP1 is hit, the PA moves down. Since it has moved down, MT4 and the EA have nothing to send since it is waitng for one tick "Above" TP 1 before it sends it modification to the remaining two orders.

Fortunately it does not happen often and I believe in the theory of "More often than not". More often than not the PA moves at least two ticks above TP1 and MT4 and the EA do their job fine. But their will be those instances where the PA moves just to the TP1 and drops, especially if TP1 is at a S/R point.

Quote
You are welcome to post your settings and results here, even if it's not the regular "London breakout" time range.

It will give us another exploration opportunity, and another reason for believing that this strategy IS profitable!

Real (live) results ARE valuable.

Thanks for your contribution.

SQ

Thank you for that, to both you and johnny and everyone else putting their 2 cents in. I am still new at the MT4 screenshot thing, but I will work on something. If anything I can add helps, great. If I say something that seem like totally off the wall or something "everybody" already knows, I apologize. But hey, that's what these forums are all about, sharing ideas and each of us are at our own level of experience.

GLTA!

ScottyB
  • #630
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:36am Sep 3, 2010 9:36am
Good morning.
I wonder if someone could change this expert advisor for hours is calculated automatically based on our Brocker it would avoid making mistakes that is possible?
thank you

FRENCH

bonjour.
je voudrais savoir si une personne pouvait modifier ce expert advisor pour que les heures soit calculer automatiquement en fonction de notre brocker cela éviterais de faire des erreurs cela est possible ?
merci
  • #631
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:38am Sep 3, 2010 9:38am
Quoting squalou
wow... this is turning into fight!

Johnny, Mer will certainly appreciate ideas towards improving the strategy.
However, as xmph pointed out, Mer has put a clear warning in post #1 about posting new ideas, and keep the strategy the way he has described it originally.
My point about letting it "go too far" is because we are now somehow the mice dancing in the house while the cat is not home...
Even if the mice actually think they are doing a great job and not fooling around, they don't know if the cat will like it when he's back.
I appreciate...
A great positive outcome, thanks guys.

Sq, whilst we ponder how best to sit the box, could I request in the meantime a mod/ simple enhancement on the existing ea. Just as we have "Limit box to max", can we have "Expand box to min". The idea is that this way, I can actually specify a box size of say 20. which will give me 20 if the range is higher, or 20 if the range is lower.

Like Phreddy, I am also looking at the 06:630 range - often it can be very small ie less that 8 pips, in which case chances are that you may hit s/l pretty frequently. At a range of say 20 then, I have hopefully taken some of the risk away.

Additionally, obviously, I will have a more reasonable tp.

I thank you for your work, alongwith the many others I have pointed in this direction!!

Regards
Pardy
  • #632
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:49am Sep 3, 2010 9:49am
Quoting panthere
Good morning.
I wonder if someone could change this expert advisor for hours is calculated automatically based on our Brocker it would avoid making mistakes that is possible?
thank you

FRENCH

bonjour.
je voudrais savoir si une personne pouvait modifier ce expert advisor pour que les heures soit calculer automatiquement en fonction de notre brocker cela éviterais de faire des erreurs cela est possible ?
merci
I thought the EA alrready uses broker time?? If it uses the local time that may be my problem too.
  • #633
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:54am Sep 3, 2010 9:54am
no I think that this expert advisor uses the time the broker because otherwise there would not have the options departure time etc. .. Finally, I think, but may be I am wrong :-)Écouter
Lire phonétiquement
  • #634
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:01am Sep 3, 2010 10:01am
Quoting JohnnyBSmart
On the Stochastics indicator within the code is the line itself as you already know.
It took me several minutes to understand that one...
Tell me if i got it right:
What you're saying is that the Stochastic indicator code invokes one of the OHLC lines to determine the hi/lo over the given %K period:
High[],Low[] and Close[] for the regular Stochastic indi,
High[] only for the StochHigh,
and Low[] only for the StochLow that you posted,
Correct ?

There is very tiny difference between regular stoch, stochHigh and stochLow resulting lines.

How do you extract any useful information from their differences ?


Quote
I believe by setting the line as a Global Variable of the Client Terminal we can then determine the direction of this line by the code itself giving us a very good trend direction. Then it is just simply putting the box below the PA on an uptrend and above the PA on a downtrend.

The most important trade is the initial trade and the problem with using the 15 minute chart is the many ups and downs. Even the M15 trend from the last reversal point is not always what you get for direction at the London Open.
Quote
Often this is a short counter trend before the trade with the trend shortly after the Open which is the true breakout of the PA with heavy volume. In any event the stochastics will show the direction at any particular space in time.
How do you determine a trend from a stochastic line ?
When it goes to extreme zones (OB/OS), this does not give you the direction of the trend, unless the stoch period is long enough (several hours).
When a trend forms, the stoch will go into the OB/OS area.
Once it is there, you cannot determine if the trend is continuing or if it is exhausted: in either case it will stay in the OB/OS area for quite a long time before moving back to the middle zone.
The stoch will move from the OS/OB area back into the middle zone if price retraces.
But this also happens when price stays around the same level during more than roughly half of the stoch period.
Using multiple stochs with different periods should help defferentiate the various cases, I haven't gone into that yet.

We can build a stochastic-based trend indicator if you explain the rules.

RSI would be a better trend detector.
Put an RSI(20) on M5: when it reads >55 it's uptrend, <45 downtrend.
Well, this depends of course on how the magnitude you are looking for.
We are looking over
SteveHopwood uses that filter in many of his EAs.
It's probably not the best trend detector in the world, but it does quite a good job.

I built for myself a modified version of the #MTF_RSI, which i called #MTF_dualRSI, that plots the main RSI as a histogram, and shows the 45-55 zone. (it also plots a secondary "entry" RSI, but we're not interested in it right now).
Attached here for everyone to try out.


However, the basic principle of the strategy is again to use the calm zone to form our (small) box, and wait for momentum to produce breakout, and start from there.
By definition, the calm zone will not give you any reliable trend direction...
That's why we trade both directions on the breakout.


Quote
The ZigZag is a good indicator but you may want to look at the NonLag ZigZag which I posted earlier. It still repaints but usually an acceptable pivot has already been established before the open or just after.
i'll check that one, sure.

SQ
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 #MTF_dualRSI.mq4   4 KB | 609 downloads
  • #635
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:11am Sep 3, 2010 10:11am
Quoting JohnnyBSmart
The attached charts is a comparison what is happening now with the standard method on the second chart and the optional method on the first chart. This is for those who have not reviewed the difference between two methods. The price exhausted it's downward momentum before the start of the London Open and that is the reason for the earlier start.

Many times this doesn't happen until sometime after the Open which now puts you in a position of waiting or jumping in and taking a risk that the direction doesn't suddenly turn on you which is very likely....
Thanks for that post, Johnny. Whilst I think I understand your broad suggestion, could I perhaps ask you two questions just to get the idea firmly in my mind.

1. Since TP0 is the edges of the box, you are saying that we can take the trade whilst within the box, when price reaches TP0, you are already looking to take 1st profit. Would a reasonable way of doing this be if stochs have bottomed or topped out and then there is a cross of PA over the Gann line?
2. At the moment, how would you draw that box range. Is that the actual range say within the times placed, say if it were 20 pips. You would then draw a 20 pip box at a support or resistance. How would you decide which?
Or would the range of the box be the most immediate support/resistance point.
3. What would be very helpful, certainly to me, would be if you could show that in a series of chart from start, point out s/r (chart1), where the box should go(chart2), and where the trade should be taken(chart3), and finally, at what point you would start the process again by redrawing the box and where(chart4).

Hope its not too much to ask, your posts have already helped me in this context.

Thanks.
Pardy
  • #636
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:16am Sep 3, 2010 10:16am
Quoting panthere
no I think that this expert advisor uses the time the broker because otherwise there would not have the options departure time etc. .. Finally, I think, but may be I am wrong :-)Écouter
Lire phonétiquement

EA uses the broker time, just like all your MT4 charts.
MT4 only knows about the broker time.
Local time is accessible programmatically, but is not used in the EA.
The Comment area of the EA (up left corner) gives you all known times.

Go to post #433, it explains all you need to find out your box and session times.


SQ
  • #637
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:27am Sep 3, 2010 10:27am
Quoting squalou
EA uses the broker time, just like all your MT4 charts.
MT4 only knows about the broker time.
Local time is accessible programmatically, but is not used in the EA.
The Comment area of the EA (up left corner) gives you all known times.

Go to post #433, it explains all you need to find out your box and session times.


SQ
Hey SQ,

Are you running the latest EA? Why would my ea reach mart sec 1597? My settings are default except for the start/end times. [See post 627]

Not sure what I'm doing wrong.....

Thanks in advance
  • #638
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:44am Sep 3, 2010 10:44am
thank you squalou
So if my broker is 0 I must otter one hour in the parameters of the expert advisor? ditto for Indicator 3 ters london?
thank you
sorry I do not speak English I use a translator and I'm not sure that the translation of the posts #433 is good so I prefer to be on and ask.Écouter
Lire phonétiquement


FRENCH

merci .
donc si mon broker est a 0 je doit otter une heure dans les paramètres de l'expert advisor ? idem pour l'indicateur 3 ters london ?
merci
desolé je ne parle pas anglais j'utilise un traducteur et je suis pas sur que la traduction du posts 125 soit bonne donc je préfère être sur et poser la question.
  • #639
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:13am Sep 3, 2010 11:13am
Quoting squalou
hi

I'm glad you are doing well with it, but be careful with live trading the EA.
It is ok trading only 1 trade at a time, but i have not yet released the fix for the Trades2&3 not moving to BE after TP1 hit.

You are welcome to post your settings and results here, even if it's not the regular "London breakout" time range.

It will give us another exploration opportunity, and another reason for believing that this strategy IS profitable!

Real (live) results ARE valuable.

Thanks for your contribution.

SQ
Ok, here ya go. These are my backtesting results and settings. I have only run live for the past week and am carrying a 92% winning rate. Had first lost yesterday on GBP false breakout. Thanks to Johnny, I now have added a S/R indicator to choose whether I will manually allow the trade to enter or not. Times are based on GMT +3 (FXDD). So far, I have only been able to optimize 3 pairs, EURUSD, EURJPY and GBPUSD. My goal (like ours) is to find a time frame that was consistantly profitable over the last year. Also, that is the only data I have through FXDD BT data that I have been able to get to work. Nothing in this post is to take away from the strategy, just my playing with the settings to obtain a more consistant equity curve without the martingale. Nothing against it, just don't have the bank for it. From these tests and settings, I figure I will need a $500 bank per .01 lot, per pair.

First, my settings...

EUR/USD
SendTrades: TRUE
LOT: .01
MaxRisk: 0.0
MagicNumber 0
StartTime: 09:00
EndTime: 12:14
SessionEndTime: 20:00
MinBoxSizeInPips 25
MaxBoxSizeInPips 50
LimitBoxtoMaxSize TRUE
TP1Factor 15
TP3Factor 225
SLFactor 1
LevelsResizeFactor 1.25
MaxTradesAllowedPerSession 1
MaxLossesAllowedPerSession 0
BreakEvenProfitinPips 1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TesterGraph EURUSD 090109 to 090310.gif Size: 7 KB


GBP/USD

SendTrades: TRUE
LOT: .01
MaxRisk: 0.0
MagicNumber 0
StartTime: 14:00
EndTime: 16:59
SessionEndTime: 20:00
MinBoxSizeInPips 25
MaxBoxSizeInPips 50
LimitBoxtoMaxSize TRUE
TP1Factor 10
TP3Factor 200
SLFactor 1
LevelsResizeFactor 1.25
MaxTradesAllowedPerSession 1
MaxLossesAllowedPerSession 0
BreakEven ProfitinPips 1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TesterGraph GBPUSD 090109 to 090310.gif Size: 8 KB



EURJPY

SendTrades: TRUE
LOT: .01
MaxRisk: 0.0
MagicNumber 0
StartTime: 08:00
EndTime: 11:14
SessionEndTime: 20:00
MinBoxSizeInPips 25
MaxBoxSizeInPips 50
LimitBoxtoMaxSize TRUE
TP1Factor 12
TP3Factor 200
SLFactor 1
LevelsResizeFactor 1.2
MaxTradesAllowedPerSession 1
MaxLossesAllowedPerSession 0
BreakEven ProfitinPips 1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TesterGraph EURJPY 090109 to 09032010.gif Size: 7 KB


This is what I have so far. I think it is a great EA. I think you are on the right track. Anything I can do to help, my limited experience is at your disposal.

Mer, great concept! Squalou, great coding! Johnny and everyone else...great ideas. Put em all together...maybe next year we can all get together for a party!

GLTA!

ScottyB
  • #640
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:33am Sep 3, 2010 11:33am
Thank you, Scotty B.

I agree with you that if we can find settings that work well without resorting to Martingale, then this really is the preference. I cannot watch the charts at trading times to check for SR near the trade, so I am excited to see the ideas that are developing here which would push win rate and profitability up.

(Your manual intervention seems to be boosting win rate from 80% to 90% area, which is great.)

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