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A Simple London Breakout V.2

  • #601
  • Sep 2, 2010 12:10am Sep 2, 2010 12:10am
Hello xmph,

xmph;3994549]Please read my previous as per putting the box at SR .... bad idea.

I know it was a bad idea for you to say that. I forgive.

Please I'm all eyes and ears please show me a better solution.

for the 100% accurate that shows probability of success .... if it shows anything else than 100%, then you have a bug. Come on Johnny, did you succeed in modeling human emotions .... if so you should talk to DARPA, I'm sure they'd be interested.

The method is 100% accurate how can you beat that? It wasn't even all my idea as my son helped. I knew that college would make that boy smart.

No bugs and I feel fine but thanks for asking. Show me a losing trade with my revised box method. Please show me as the elimination of losing trades in a particular method is the only way to improve the end result. Finding these code or method errors is like finding little diamonds. I welcome all with open arms who posts any and all logic errors or holes in my method. I absolutely take nothing personally so go ahead unless you get personal then that's a horse of a different color.

No seriously, I agree with the concept of SR ... but don't over do it.

How can you over do the use of the SRs? That's like saying making too much money is a bad thing.

I already tried multiple add-ons to Squalou's codes (and Mer's method in extent), and I may say that up to now, nothing passes a 2004 till now backtest except using the original method with appropriate parameters.

Then the only logical solution is to shoot the coder. Sorry it's only business.

What would be nice Johnny is you provide daily chart of your trades with a box placed at SR without any StopLoss (come on again ... whether you put one, or you stick in front of your computer and be a human StopLoss .... I would accept you mentioning a dynamic StopLoss based on SR and Risk ratio). I wonder what would really happen.

I will not be prey for the stoploss hunters. I will not be prey for the stoploss hunters. I will not be prey for the stoploss hunters. I'm not going to play your game and become a Forex trainer here. I don't even trade this chart as it is not ready to trade as advertised as far as I'm concerned much less trading the EA. Nothing personal just my opinion. Why give up a tried and true method for a new one.

The discussion is about the box placement and alternate ways to trade the box and not how I trade. Let's keep the discussion relevant shall we.
I may add .... you told Squalou about "fallacies" regarding time and price action/direction (I think you went strong on him so I allow myself for the next comment) ..... but my friend .... what is Support and Resistance to you (don't tell anyone, I think a reversal is a price action direction for a given time period) ? Ooops

Something was lost in the translation. I don't understand Chinese but that's alright.

Aren't you the one who said the backtest only had a 1.++ something profit factor? And you're telling me this is the best you can do even with changing the code? If you didn't reach a PF factor of 10 on the revised code then you haven't even begun to reach coder stardom. Tell me you're just kidding. And you're calling me crazy?

All good fun my friend but I really must get on with other things. Thanks for the chat.

Here's hoping your trade makes it out of the box you put it in,

Johnny

PS: I let mine out of the box to run to the profit lines. It's funny just how much faster the profits rise without that darn box slowing them down. It's like a race horse running a race with a 300 pound jockey. Just get a little jockey and the horse will run faster. In this case get a tiny box and don't put the price inside it.

Cheers
  • #602
  • Sep 2, 2010 12:50am Sep 2, 2010 12:50am
Quoting juzgood1978
Johnny will you care to share your 100% accurate system?
Hello juzgood1978,

It really has a very simple concept but it isn't a program thing. I will explain it in simple easy to understand language.

I have a little miniature Dashund by the name of Jack who loves to take a walk through the woods in the nearby public park. As I walk on the path with Jack on a long rubber cord leash he looks for signs of the rabbit he knows is hiding somewhere in the bushes. He will absolutely stretch his leash to the limit when he smells something and then he will move to the opposite side of the path and do exactly the same thing. He doesn't always do this and only when his nose tells him the rabbit has been there. I always know when he's going to stretch his leash as his tail starts wagging after a long inhale and abrupt exhale through his nostrils of obvious fresh rabbit scent. By now you probably think I'm crazy but I assure you I'm quite sane.

You see the market does exactly the same thing as Jack. Sometimes during the 24 hour period of a single day the market smells something either good or bad. When this happens the price on a chart goes beyond the normal highs and lows and is very noticeable on a chart. The market again reacts just like Jack and crosses the line of equilibrium and goes in the opposite direction for just about the same distance. This happens on average of over five times a day. So when trading a market open or for that matter anytime of day I watch for signs the market has stretched the leash so to speak. If it has gone up I wait for the top and short the market knowing it's heading back down to the line of equilibrium and beyond. I have found this to be 100% accurate and is easily seen on any chart. There are many indicators that will highlight this such as the Bollinger Bands. This occurred four times on 9/1/10 and eight times on 8/31/10.

Happy trading,

Johnny
  • #603
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:41am Sep 2, 2010 6:41am
Quoting JohnnyBSmart
xmph,

THE BOX.

Some want a little box and some want it big.
Some can't decide as they're new to this gig.
Some want to trade the box as prescribed.
Others are questioning and need to be bribed.
Some want to trade with the box in the middle.
With others it seems like an insolvable riddle.
I'd like the box out of the way.
So think about it what do ya say.
[color=blue]Convincing...
Very good - you are obviously a man of many talents!!

Pardy
  • #604
  • Sep 2, 2010 9:34am Sep 2, 2010 9:34am
I coded a small change to the Indicator that will allow us to explore a first approach to JohnnyBSmart's inputs;

i.e.: consider the latest extreme (reversal) within the box as a S/R level, and
stick the box OUTSIDE using the latest extreme/reversal move as the box edge.

This is somewhat similar to using the CT mode of the strategy, where the box edges are used as reversal levels.


If the reversal point was a "major" reversal, then price will fly away from the box towards the TP zone.
We yet have to determine if the reversal will persist (hitting more TP levels), or if it was only a minor retracement (and PA will run back to us)...

Note that with this option, the rule for the FIRST entry must be modified;
price has already bounced off the box as per its definition, so we should enter immediately when the box forms, unless perhaps if price is already too far away from the box, and has already pierced TP1 or even beyond.
This will make us enter beyond the box edge, and reduce our TP zone, but this is the price to pay to get in the move earlier.
Remember that with this mode, we are most likely entering ahead of the "regular" box entry point.


- I added "StickBoxOusideSRlevels" input; set to true to enable this mode of drawing;


Let's see how our playground looks like with this new input;

I have attached the modified Indicator, and a template to load it with some settings that doesn't look too bad on EU.

The main settings are:

box time: 06:00-08:59
MaxBoxSizeInPips = 20
TP1 = 15 pips
TP3 = 50 pips
TP5 = 100 pips
And of course:
StickBoxOusideSRlevels = true

This is all still very experimental.

The box is still drawn at a fixed time range.

The next step would be to find a way to form the box at a better time.
Adding a ZigZag indi to determine the "better" swing point is a possibility.
This is what Johnny does with the "3 ZZ semaphore" indicator, which draws 3 different ZigZags with numbered+colored "spots" rather than a zigzag line, but it's basically the same.

We could have a "floating box time range", for instance a 6 hours range starting at 03:00(gmt+2), during which we would monitor our "box locking signal" indicator to wait for the "lock" signal.
When the "lock signal" comes, we draw the box at that time, which may happen before or after the regular 09:00 fixed box "endTime",
and enter a trade immediately;

Now we need to find the best "box locking signal" indicator.

ZigZag can be a good candidate;
ZigZag repaints of course, as it follows the highest/lowest price points;
So we need to wait for ZZ to survive for let's say 3 M15 candles.
At that point, we have our "lock signal" and we enter the game.


Let's see what this path can give...


Below are two snapshots of 3days action on EU from aug 25-27, with the same settings EXCEPT the StickBoxOusideSRlevels value:

---- 1 -----

StickBoxOusideSRlevels=FALSE:
(this would be the "regular" box mode)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lbo2-v3.2b-StickBoxOusideSRlevels=FALSE-EU-2010-aug25-27.gif Size: 54 KB


---- 2 -----

StickBoxOusideSRlevels=TRUE:
(this is our new "experimental" box mode)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lbo2-v3.2b-StickBoxOusideSRlevels=TRUE-EU-2010-aug25-27.gif Size: 52 KB



It seems quite obvious that the "experimental" mode gives better results: we get much less caught into the Stop zone.

Now, this is a "chosen" example... it doesn't mean that this is going to be that cristal clear every day...

This looks encouraging, doesn't it ?

SQ
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 3 Tier London Breakout V.3.2b.mq4   21 KB | 715 downloads
File Type: tpl lbo2-3.2b.jbs1.tpl   3 KB | 689 downloads
  • #605
  • Edited 12:26pm Sep 2, 2010 9:50am | Edited 12:26pm
Quoting JohnnyBSmart
xmph,


How can you say this? You are confusing time, the London Open, with good trading methods. Placement of the box is critical to get a strong price movement and correct direction of the initial trade.

[color=Blue]If the logic for determining the size of the Box was valid then it would be valid on the NY Open and the Asian Open. The fact is the Frankfort Open to the Close has little or no validity to determining the size of the box on the London Open no more then then phase of the moon and if it does...
Dear all,

I took out the childish spirit and provide constructive information. I believe this answer is worth reading. I will not further comment on the 5pips 1Hour30min box placed at S/R levels without StopLoss suggested by Johnny after this.

Check the following - year 2005-2006 .... you're lucky I actually work on this yesterday so I can quickly wrap up some screenshots ... and I think it's good for Squalou not to go through what I've been as well

So I was backtesting 2005-2006 as it is an interesting year for testing Box placement with respect to Res/Sup ... but I guess you know that, you are smart enough to backtest a little more than few days back right.

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image
... Let that one run without StopLoss ... I'm sure you'll have some fun ... but who knows in a backtesting millionaire life, maybe it will end up making big profits 3years later after retracement !
Attached Image
... that one is on me. I try to reduce DrawDown and have specific rules. Got bitten on that one.
Attached Image
... let that one run again ... you're a rich man in 3yrs, after retracement !
Attached Image


Here, green lines are support, red resistance and blue pivot. Depending on price action, I move move at +/- 4-5 pips to red or green, and it may be at a first or second level of S/R depending where price-action is occurring.

Now of course, there comes into play the time-window for the breakout, the active trading time-window, and size of box. These are parameters of the current strategy suggested by Mer and the very reason of the thread. Take these out, and this is no more the original strategy (as it would mean you don't believe in the strategy in the first place) so start a new thread.
Quote

Please review the attached chart. What can be better then this?

Indeed, this is a London BreakOut Thread with a starting point defined by Mer. This is not a 5pips breakout strategy, no StopLoss, wishing it will retrace in the right direction ! Just to make sure there is no chinese mistranslation here: your box is 5pips, on a 15Min chart, does not include ANY Ask/Bid price, on a EUR/USD pair that is known (maybe I'm wrong) to have more than a 5pips daily volatility, and well, I assume your GMT correction is fine as I don't know your broker but it is definitly not covering our time constraints for London Open (it doesn't fit in your 1Hour30min box). So what's wrong (and here I assume this box would make any sense) is that it's not a London BreakOut (actually it's not even a breakout), it's (again assuming) a S/R strategy which is not the current thread discussion.

From a personal perspective, WTF do you get out of a 5pips box! No meaningful information here ... specifically for a smart statistician like you ... check your p-value I'm sure it's about 50 !

I suggested the following (it is self-explanatory if you understand S/R levels why putting the box in such places will extract the most pips while keeping the spirit of Mer's Break-Out). You don't like, fine, but don't keep on pushing for diverging from the current strategy or riddling about a 5pips-No StopLoss strategy in a thread that actually is a profitable strategy (for my standard ... 2004 till now profitable system).
Attached Image


My last words, No I do not develop system with a yearly 10times ratio that I would trade live. Every system I developed has to pass a 2004 till now period, with a starting deposit of 2500$. My goal is to double every year, and to date I manage to reach a minimum of 60% yearly which is not too bad. I'm not up to your backtesting standards ! I live in the real life where being a millionaire is only possible if you know how and when to loose.

Johnny, wanna keep along these lines, PM me ... no need to further pollute the thread.

PS: do you know why I didn't appreciate some physics teachers (and classes) in college .... they try to explain the world saying Earth is round, and that its weight is in the center just because that way, they know how to handle the math .... well, I had more fun spending one week re-demonstrating gravity laws in quantum physics courses some years later.
  • #606
  • Sep 2, 2010 10:00am Sep 2, 2010 10:00am
Quoting squalou
The next step would be to find a way to form the box at a better time.
Adding a ZigZag indi to determine the "better" swing point is a possibility.
This is what Johnny does with the "3 ZZ semaphore" indicator, which draws 3 different ZigZags with numbered+colored "spots" rather than a zigzag line, but it's basically the same.

We could have a "floating box time range", for instance a 6 hours range starting at 03:00(gmt+2), during which we would monitor our "box locking signal" indicator to wait for the...
To me this is a new strategy: different times, different box .... and it does not even encompass price action.

I'm not saying this is wrong, I'm saying you should start a new thread for this. I would follow BTW, but we have to keep this thread dedicated to a LBO, as it was started by Mer.
  • #607
  • Sep 2, 2010 10:39am Sep 2, 2010 10:39am
Quoting xmph
To me this is a new strategy: different times, different box .... and it does not even encompass price action.

I'm not saying this is wrong, I'm saying you should start a new thread for this. I would follow BTW, but we have to keep this thread dedicated to a LBO, as it was started by Mer.

You're pretty damn right!
I thought about doing that some days ago, but i let go too far, for sure.

Mer will have some heavy house keeping to do when he's back
We did put quite a mess here...

SQ
  • #608
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:48am Sep 2, 2010 11:48am
Quoting squalou
The main settings are:

box time: 06:00-08:59
MaxBoxSizeInPips = 20
TP1 = 15 pips
TP3 = 50 pips
TP5 = 100 pips
And of course:
StickBoxOusideSRlevels = true


SQ
Hello Squalou ,

Why MaxBoxSizeInPips = 20 ?

What is the reason for 20 pips box size in this new idea?
Rgds,
RL
  • #609
  • Sep 2, 2010 3:18pm Sep 2, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting xmph
Dear all,

I took out the childish spirit and provide constructive information. I believe this answer is worth reading. I will not further comment on the 5pips 1Hour30min box placed at S/R levels without StopLoss suggested by Johnny after this.

Check the following - year 2005-2006 .... you're lucky I actually work on this yesterday so I can quickly wrap up some screenshots ... and I think it's good for Squalou not to go through what I've been as well

So I was backtesting 2005-2006 as it is an interesting year for testing Box placement with respect...
xmph,

You need to read my posts twice before posting. I do not use a stoploss is very true and it is my choice but I do use BUY AND SELL STOPS, TAKE PROFIT LINES, FIBS, BOLLINGER BANDS AND PRICE CHANNELS which accomplish the same thing which is to minimize loss.

As far as this thread is concerned I believe Mer started it to share his ideas and to get input from others to better the system and thus attain a higher level of profitability. WE ARE DOING JUST THAT SO WHAT'S YOUR COMPLAINT AND WHY ARE YOU RANTING. Every trader I know wants to eliminate losses, minimize risk and just plain make more money. What is your goal???

What the heck does it matter if things have to be changed to attain our goal. So we move the box and adjust the TP levels and now instead of the box at the London Open it's now 30 minutes sooner. Get a grip on reality. You are putting all your efforts into proving my ideas wrong instead of seeing the obvious advantage of having the initial trade a win everytime.

Squalou changed the code to get closer to my ideas and although not spot on it is indeed getting closer. The positive results are proof or are you just not looking and are oblivious to change. Please open your eyes and your mind and you will see the advantages.

We seem to be moving one step forward and two steps back every time you post. Your last post in my mind was totally meaningless and quite frankly without any merit. If you are going to post and rant about my ideas then at least do me the courtesy and read my posts. This would be a step in the right direction to a better understanding.

The reason for the 5 pip box was explained but again you failed to read. This was the only box that would move to the correct position due to the underlying code in the program and also have the TP levels where I wanted them. I would suggest a bigger box but could not use one and show my ideas. Again only for discussion.

You seem to want to fight and take this to a higher level when I am only looking for a discussion of new ideas. Yelling and ranting as you are doing never win an argument and only shows your inability to discuss things in a civilized way.

Nobody has yet said you cannot keep your old system of producing losing trades so get a grip on yourself. You can keep losing all you want and nobody is going to stop you. If you are happy and believe that a 1.28 PF factor is the highest attainable level, then use it but why are trying so hard to convince others? Other threads on FF have back test 10 times better then 1.28 and I don't see you posting and ranting on those threads that they are nuts and this is an unattainable level. Go over to Steve Hopwood's thread or Nanningbob's thread and start your rants and see what happens.

If you're trying to wage a war of words please do everybody a favor and come prepared and fully understand the method I am proposing . Nobody likes your "WTF's" and attacks on some preconceived method that only exists in your mind. Try posting with respect to others and at least read before you start an attack. Better yet posts your new ideas if you have any.

Defend Mer's existing method like it's some kind of Holy Grail or religion is just plain childish. Mer himself liked the last code revision and said so himself. If he is open to change of his system then why are you so steadfast against it and attack new ideas like they are blasphemy without ever fully reading and understanding.

If you have a question I will do my best to answer it and I will forget your last post.

MAY THE NEW IDEAS BY ALL CONTINUE AND BE MANY,

Johnny
  • #610
  • Sep 2, 2010 4:05pm Sep 2, 2010 4:05pm
Quoting JohnnyBSmart
xmph,


1. What the heck does it matter if things have to be changed to attain our goal. So we move the box and adjust the TP levels and now instead of the box at the London Open it's now 30 minutes sooner. Get a grip on reality. You are putting all your efforts into proving my ideas wrong instead of seeing the obvious advantage of having the initial trade a win everytime.

2. If you're trying to wage a war of words please do everybody a favor and come prepared and fully understand the method I am proposing . Nobody likes your "WTF's" and attacks...
I'm done.

Yes, I did see how many indicators you have on your chart. Why don't you use your 100% accurate indi instead.

As per coming prepared, I'm sorry to post charts, examples and backtest days and times where your solution failed to work with respect to the current spirit of Mer's strategy. Like I said, I worked on it, I previously mention this was a bad idea from my experience, what I did last was just visually explaining why.

What you propose is a support/resistance breakout. That should be in a new thread that I would follow BTW.

Yes, I do value Mer's strategy. It nicely evolves from V1 to V2 ... and it's an evolution of the same strategy that previously I wouldn't trade, and that I'm now trading because it's profitable. It is not by introducing another strategy that you will help developing this one.

Enjoy your new strategy. I will not mention again that it's a different one and I will not argue that if you backtest it for more than a year it does not work like lots of strategies in FF. It doesn't mean this is not good, that means you would not sleep too well at night if you really had your money there ! I don't sleep enough, that's a given, but at least my EAs run and I do sleep well.

Please Johnny, open a PAMM account on ALPARI with your 100% accurate strategy and PM the name, it would be a pleasure to invest in it.
  • #611
  • Sep 2, 2010 4:18pm Sep 2, 2010 4:18pm
Hi,

Surely you know the opposition: Never touch a running system.

I´m a beginner but the "original" system works fine to me. okay, there are normal days, bad days and GOOD days.

I learned the most important thing .... Patience
  • #612
  • Sep 2, 2010 4:43pm Sep 2, 2010 4:43pm
I've been following this thread for a while now. Personally, I think that some new ideas that people have contributed are very worthwhile, and I agree with the many very sensible and perfectly reasonable suggestions and comments from Johnny.

I really wouldn't get too hung up on a fixed time box just for the sake of that is how it started. How it started also includes a CT strategy which is not therefore only a breakout strategy.

I am keen to work on Johnny's suggestions since I think that the results would be far less drawdowns and martingales, some of which are currently so steep that it would make the strategy practically very difficult to trade for most ( regardless of all the backtests which might come out as ultimately positive)

What me must not lose sight of is the fact that it is more important to implement ideas that give us a safer more profitable strategy, even if in doing so it looks a little or even a lot different to how it started out.

Whether this discussion is carried on within this thread or in a different one, I have no firm views on it. Sq has already done some great work, both on the indi and EA. Mer I am sure would not mind continuing with the discussion and improvements here, he has asked for ideas anyway. Maybe the stage at which to think of a different thread would be when there is no box being drawn at all, lol.

Thanks.
  • #613
  • Sep 2, 2010 4:58pm Sep 2, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting squalou
You're pretty damn right!
I thought about doing that some days ago, but i let go too far, for sure.

Mer will have some heavy house keeping to do when he's back
We did put quite a mess here...

SQ
Hello squalou,

I was very excited to see your post and charts. I can't thank you enough and I was about to discuss further ideas when I noticed this post. In my mind this just took you from hero to zero. Why are you slamming the door on new ideas? Why would you even consider listening to the rantings of this guy. You are obviously way more intelligent then that and need to consider the ignore button.

I have a miniature Daschund who attacks anybody and everybody that comes through my front door before determining whether it's friend or foe. I have never been able to break this otherwise great dog from that very bad habit. I find people who also fit into this mold and changing them is just as difficult if not impossible.

Mer isn't a stupid person I'm sure and anybody suggesting he'd say no to a positive change has their head in the sand. Anything that improves his system and puts more money into his pocket has got to make him very happy.

I have no interest in claiming this system and am only posting ideas for mutual benefit. It is and always will be Mer's and your system and the original guy that coded the first boxopen version on another site. What could possibly be wrong with two versions for a running comparison? I have been on threads where this actually happened and it was a blast seeing which version would prevail as the winner. The end result was a system with the best of the best ideas from both which could very well occur here.

Stopping new ideas at this point in the thread is like stopping the fireman from putting out the fire that is engulfing your house and you didn't pay your insurance premium.

Don't let others determine your destiny and set your own goals. You are the one who has to live with your decisions. Anything can be looked upon from a negative view. Some will say the rays of the sun are blinding and look for dark while others will welcome the light and abandon the dark. It is only an individuals shear determination to achieve greatness and his or her's ability to silence the naysayers that will make that person great and see him or her to the fulfillment of their goals.

It comes down to the choice is yours and only yours to make. You can choose the dark and things will remain the same or choose the light and see what enlightenment comes your way.

Whatever your decision I wish you well and thank you again for the revised indicator and template.

May the sun shine brightly upon you,

Johnny
  • #614
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:27pm Sep 2, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting JohnnyBSmart
Hello squalou,

I was very excited to see your post and charts. I can't thank you enough and I was about to discuss further ideas when I noticed this post. In my mind this just took you from hero to zero. Why are you slamming the door on new ideas? Why would you even consider listening to the rantings of this guy. You are obviously way more intelligent then that and need to consider the ignore button.

Johnny
I will follow you in a different thread Johnny. You seem to think I'm against your method where I'm saying what you propose does not fit nor work with the current strategy. No-one is slamming door. Beside saying it does not work for the current strategy, I never stop saying you should start a thread of your own and I'll join and follow it. Do you want me to start one for your strategy ?

Johnny, don't let our discussions slide on squalou's work and commitment.

I don't know why it's so hard to understand. Maybe you will appreciate re-reading Mer's word from the first post. My understanding is one can build up on the current strategy to improve it ... not change it's core process.

Quoting mer071898
Also, please do not flood the thread with "you should do this or add this" or "this would work better" comments. I want prefer to stick to the original strategy posted, but if you want to play around with the settings and add other indicators, please feel free to do so on your own, otherwise it confuses those who want to follow the original premise of the strategy, thank you.*
  • #615
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:37pm Sep 2, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting xmph
I'm done.

Yes, I did see how many indicators you have on your chart. Why don't you use your 100% accurate indi instead.

As per coming prepared, I'm sorry to post charts, examples and backtest days and times where your solution failed to work with respect to the current spirit of Mer's strategy. Like I said, I worked on it, I previously mention this was a bad idea from my experience, what I did last was just visually explaining why.

What you propose is a support/resistance breakout. That should be in a new thread that I would follow BTW.

Yes,...
xmph,

You still post with an air of arrogance. The one thing I've learned in life is to have an open mind and be open for suggestions. What I first believed as impossible is now possible and it just gets down to our own perception of reality. One's reality only changes with education and experience. It's like common sense which my Father-In-Law always said is the least common of all senses and he was quite correct.

You only have common sense through learning from others or making a mistake. Like a child putting their hand into a gas burner on a stove. Even though the Mother has told the child not to do this and explained what would happen the child still does it to find out for itself. Only then does this child have the common sense not to do it again.

Unfortunately some never get the message and go through life making the same mistakes over and over again. I find that it is these types of individuals who are the loudest in our society and the ones marching in protest of some obscure something or other. They always profess their superior common sense yet education has always eluded them.

I never suggested changing this method to a SR breakout system and only explained how I would trade it. Because I take profit at price exhaustion as well as TP levels and trade with the knowledge I've accumulated you say I'm something bad.

You also must believe that the London Open or so called breakout is something different then just the price bouncing from support to resistance. What is this breakout and a breakout of what exactly. It certainly isn't a breakout of some arbitrarily defined box. It is simply the market's reaction of the fundamental factors that drive the market and is usually overdone in direction with the influx of above average volume.

This just doesn't happen at the turn of a clock dial to 3:00 EST. If the Asian market didn't finish the move to support for example a completion of this move will take place before any move by the fundamental factors takes place and the subsequent move to resistance.

You have consistently shown your inability to grasp new ideas along with reading and understanding the written word. You pass yourself off as a learned individual but your posts suggest otherwise. Your lack of writing skills is for all to see. You proved nothing with your back testing and charts except for your complete misunderstanding of the ideas I have suggested. If you fail in understanding the ideas suggested and with your obvious lack of writing skills who may I ask in their right mind would believe your ability to write code is any better?

You keep posting "I'm done" but then I see another post. Please keep your promises. We are done listening to your rhetoric.

Johnny
  • #616
  • Edited 3:09am Sep 3, 2010 3:05am | Edited 3:09am
Hi,
I am with forex , com can you please advise me what are the correct values for Start Time - End Time and Session End Time? I'm in EST Time Zone.

Thanks in Advance..
  • #617
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:09am Sep 3, 2010 5:09am
Quoting mer071898
I've had to adjust my thinking to this strategy a little because before, we were...
Hiya Dude, thanks for the EA. I'm trying to test it but get an "order send - failed - invalid stops" alert. I tried changing the SL to a negative number, but that didn't help. Pray tell, what am I doing wrong?
  • #618
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:34am Sep 3, 2010 5:34am
wow... this is turning into fight!

Johnny, Mer will certainly appreciate ideas towards improving the strategy.
However, as xmph pointed out, Mer has put a clear warning in post #1 about posting new ideas, and keep the strategy the way he has described it originally.
My point about letting it "go too far" is because we are now somehow the mice dancing in the house while the cat is not home...
Even if the mice actually think they are doing a great job and not fooling around, they don't know if the cat will like it when he's back.
I appreciate the new inputs because they are going into the right direction as per my standards.
If it would be my thread, I would be happy to keep it going this way.
But this is Mer's thread, not mine.
That was my point about the heavy housekeeping that Mer will have to do when he's back.
Perhaps he will just bless us to have gone that far and done so well!



So let’s calm down everyone and come back to our main topic: develop the strategy.


A development process can be divided into 2 major phases:
- creation : that's done i guess...
- improvement: that's what we are trying to do now;
Improvement itself is a converging process, consisting in
- testing the current system; this is what Mer is doing by posting the results every day;
- changing the system to try to achieve better results;
- go back to testing step until the results are good enough.


Finding the best settings for the original strategy is the first logical approach, and results posted by Mer and backtesting performed by others are doing fine for that purpose.

But there is also another path, consisting in finding useful variations to the original design.
And that is what Johnny is doing.

I think both have their place in this thread.

We are still talking about a box breakout strategy at this point:
we have a box, we have TPs and SL, all drawn by the same simple Indicator, even if it is modified.
The only difference with Mer's original strategy is that we are trying to find a better place to plot the box.
So, I don’t think time has come to fork a partner thread at that point.


Mer has already changed the box "default" time and price range settings several times in this thread, and from the V1 thread.
And he might just continue to do so "manually" as market conditions change.
What’s wrong in trying to automate that?

All the changes I made to the indicator and the EA are optional, and you can still use the original settings as the defaults.

We are currently "debugging" the system, and we need tools to do so.
We already have a very basic tool to draw our box and levels: manual inputs for the box time and price ranges.
These inputs can be seen as an Indicator that will signal when and where to draw the box and the levels.
All we want to do here is improve this basic tool, in order to plot the box and the TP/SL levels at their best places.
We will need other tools to move forward: additional indicators.
They are necessary at this stage of the development process.
Once the convergence stage is stable, we can simply remove all “debug” indicators from the chart and only keep the resulting box & levels, using the indicators internally without plotting them.



So, let’s continue with the discussions Johnny and I had started, will you?


SQ
  • #619
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:42am Sep 3, 2010 5:42am
Quoting rlewan
Hello Squalou ,

Why MaxBoxSizeInPips = 20 ?

What is the reason for 20 pips box size in this new idea?
Rgds,
RL

The box size is our SL.
I put 20 pips because i think that if the box is plotted at a "good" place, then we shouldn't need a bigger SL.
You can make it bigger to allow the trade to breathe more, but bigger SL also means bigger losses when it's hit.
Of course, smaller SL means that SL can be hit quicker.
SL size (box size) is also part of the optimization process.

SQ
  • #620
  • Edited 8:33am Sep 3, 2010 5:55am | Edited 8:33am
The attached charts is a comparison what is happening now with the standard method on the second chart and the optional method on the first chart. This is for those who have not reviewed the difference between two methods. The price exhausted it's downward momentum before the start of the London Open and that is the reason for the earlier start.

Many times this doesn't happen until sometime after the Open which now puts you in a position of waiting or jumping in and taking a risk that the direction doesn't suddenly turn on you which is very likely.

On chart the first chart, the optional method you will notice eight(8) take profit levels TP0, TP6 AND TP7 are added.

Notice the top of the box is a take profit level and not a buy line. The buy is at the top of the box but is located within the box extents. The method of confirmation is optional. The solid dark blue line is the Gann Hi-Low and as the price crosses this line then buy. Also below is the Stochastics and Momentum which also can show direction change and price exhaustion.

I suggest using buy and sell stops to protect profit as the PA moves up or down in your favor. The positioning of these is up to you.

I personally am more likely to take profit off the Bols-9 with confirmation with the indicators then with the TP lines. This is because I can pinpoint the PA exhaustion and thus take more profit.

The chart is now showing turning down of the Bols and price consolidation at the TP0 line. The price will likely only go as high as the bols centerline and I will take profit there or on any retrace down. Confirmation of direction is needed before entering the next trade.

Our pip count at this point is + 80 x 3 = 240 using this threads initial three contracts at entry. A risk reward system would have upped the number of contracts count every 30 pips and thus the pip count would now be at least an additional 40 x 3 = 120 for a total count of 360 pips.

The second chart shows the buys and sell shorts in black rectangles. The red is the PA hitting a stop loss. There are no take profit hits at this time.

The pip count is 25 x 3 = -75 pips.

This is happening way to often with the standard method and why I'm asking for a revision to the standard or the use of an alternate method. The use of indicators is the users own choice. Using the TP levels and a stoploss would still make more pips with the alternate method.

The trades after this point are probably very similar except for the optional methods eight profit levels and the Martingale vs the Risk/Reward impact on the trades. The method I use always maintains risk no higher then the initial trade. Three contracts or thirty contracts the amount of risk never gets any higher. At some point I will take the initial risk amount off the table and from that point it becomes a zero risk trading session. You either break-even or make profit.

Again this is still at a discussion point on this thread. Some have already voiced their preference. This post is only for understanding the differences in the trading the two methods. The ultimate decision is not mine to make. Personally I'd like to see both running at the same time for a while.

Cheers,

Johnny
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-9-3-10-box position jbs.jpg Size: 147 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-9-3-10-box position std.jpg Size: 79 KB
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