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  • #6,801
  • Sep 1, 2010 9:06am Sep 1, 2010 9:06am
Your point is on that fib chart you have shown, some of us might be thinking that price is going to the lower 138 because of all the inner respect and the pierce short but, there would appear to be more to it than that eh...mates?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,802
  • Sep 1, 2010 9:18am Sep 1, 2010 9:18am
God gave rock and roll to you, gave rock and roll to you...

Likely going further, but no need to be greedy. It's crabbing season here anyhow - I gotta get the garboard fixed on the boat.
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The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #6,803
  • Sep 1, 2010 9:34am Sep 1, 2010 9:34am
Quoting GridTrader
God gave rock and roll to you, gave rock and roll to you...

Likely going further, but no need to be greedy. It's crabbing season here anyhow - I gotta get the garboard fixed on the boat.
Thanks Grid. I've been working on different fibs and I found one very relevant to the bottom of your chart.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,804
  • Sep 1, 2010 9:42am Sep 1, 2010 9:42am
Quote
Originally Posted by 3 Dog Night
Honestly; I love the bashers and naysayers. They help push all but the most committed away. And that IS a good thing. Some things are better left unsaid and unknown. Those who are "supposed" to find things out and those who will commit without surrender are usually the ones who prevail. Always has been that way in most arenas of life. That having been said; I probably really do need to shut up and disappear for awhile!
Great sentiments 3dog! After my few posts here....I've pretty much said what I felt needed saying. Besides.....I've got a 11:00 tee-time with Sizz, Thom and Skunny at the beautiful Skunny Island golf course! Scotty has agreed to caddy for us!

Better get back to my charts.....gotta finish milking all I can out of this USDNOK trade before it's time to hit the links!

Later gang!
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  • #6,805
  • Sep 1, 2010 9:47am Sep 1, 2010 9:47am
i wonder.....
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Nothing is True, Everything is Permitted.
  • #6,806
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:24am Sep 1, 2010 10:24am
Quoting GridTrader
God gave rock and roll to you, gave rock and roll to you...

Likely going further, but no need to be greedy. It's crabbing season here anyhow - I gotta get the garboard fixed on the boat.
Your chart goes to show again exactly what I've been arguing all along. The truth is, the market did not use that daily fib, or your skunny fib unless you want to argue it was a zone of S/R. Each point of contact was off. Here again we run into what you guys will blame on 'bad data.'

The price you traded off of was already an area of recent S/R. Furthermore, the market hit what you believed would be resistance, but just kept on going.

I'm the only one who has been giving reasoned arguments about what you guys are doing, not against what you guys are doing. It does not take thousands of hours to be a S/R trader that holds on to winners. That is where the direction needs to be given to people who are just finding this thread for the first time. There is no magical formula, just good ole support and resistance. Focus on that and you just might come out ahead in time. Some S/R points are more significant than others, and it is learning which ones to watch that takes time. That's all you guys are doing.

S/R occurs when large traders who are believed to be informed enter the market. If their value estimates have not changed, support will continue to be support and resistance, resistance. It is a combination of these traders, seen at S/R points that helps us find values. It is not the S/R point that is the value estimate. If the market turns down, the traders who turned the market down are of the belief that values are lower. If the market turns up, the traders who caused the price retraction believe values are higher. This is what I was trying to get at last night. To find areas of value, you can use a fib, with only the 50% turned on. This gives us average estimates of value of the larger traders in the market. Two sided flows are likely to be found right around that 50% level, that's why the market sticks to what appears to be those inner fib levels.

If we were approaching the market through the lens of market profile, we would see the highest daily volumes happening usually in the same places near the 50% of the value range, this is true again because the most flow is happening there. What is one of the major tenents of market profile? It is the famous 'turn' the market will do off of the 'point of control.' Because there is new information coming into the market place at all times, values will eventually push away from what was once the original inner range. One group of trader in the original two sided mix will be right about future returns and the other wrong. This is why eventually one side will pin the market off of the value area. Because the inner fib levels are so close to the 50%, there would appear to be some action there on your charts, but if you are honest, you would see your fibs don't have much to do with any of it.

The 50% fib line will take the average of two value estimates. That's a pretty easy route to take, but you can get a little better estimate with a calculator while taking other inner range value estimates into account, something that a fib just can't do. Calculate the value areas and watch how the market utilizes them. Hardly rocket science.

I'll attach the same chart just to show that everything looks real pretty and concise, but on a closer inspection, price never perfectly bounced off any of the magical levels.
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  • #6,807
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:33am Sep 1, 2010 10:33am
Quoting Misterdaz
Your point is on that fib chart you have shown, some of us might be thinking that price is going to the lower 138 because of all the inner respect and the pierce short but, there would appear to be more to it than that eh...mates?

MD.
The point of my post is 2 fold.

1.) There is much more info needed than what you'll find in this thread.
Doesn't mean you can't figure it out though. Great things are rarely accomplished without the hard work. I'm not talking about your silver spoon feeders who expect or get everything handed over.

2.) To prove that those here who claim fibs don't work and fail, simply don't know how to use them.

3Dog has is right. Some are meant to know, others are not. BUT there is also those that can know and are perhaps meant to, but they have chosen to give up instead.

The important thing is being able to trade. If fibs are that difficult to grasp, then find something else you understand and come back to them later. Leverage is going down here in the US and things on a global scale are changing. Trading may become harder for us down the road. It's hard to say but I have my opinions.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #6,808
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:58am Sep 1, 2010 10:58am
Quoting GridTrader

3Dog has is right. Some are meant to know, others are not. BUT there is also those that can know and are perhaps meant to, but they have chosen to give up instead.
Heh, Calvinists ...
  • #6,809
  • Sep 1, 2010 11:08am Sep 1, 2010 11:08am
Quoting GridTrader
God gave rock and roll to you, gave rock and roll to you...

Likely going further, but no need to be greedy. It's crabbing season here anyhow - I gotta get the garboard fixed on the boat.

This fib was meant to confuse people. That all.
  • #6,810
  • Edited 11:24am Sep 1, 2010 11:14am | Edited 11:24am
Scotty come on man. You're not going to let me go boating today are you.

You have no idea what I'm doing nor the fact that I had orders in prior to any obvious SR, pullback swings, Sam Seiden, etc.. etc... , or what you see on my chart. You can say what you want regarding your own analysis and how you view things - which is cool and all. I respect that, but you DO NOT know what I'm doing. If you did you be singing a different tune I PROMISE YOU. If it was simple SR, I'd be profitable a LONG TIME ago!! I never showed by fib...SO quit telling me the sky is red. The pen is BLUE!... The pen is BLUE!

BUT, I'll tell you what. IF trading is so simple and doesn't take many hours, then please start a thread and show us the light. Trying to do so here is going to get you nowhere. You should know that already. And I promise you this - we will follow your thread and when/if proven wrong I will publicly retract anything I say regarding fibs. You like challenges there you go. I'm sure your a great guy (starting to question that though) with great things ( maybe?) to offer other traders - so lets move forward and see you make it happen. Otherwise I'm starting to lose my cool with you and that's a very hard thing to make happen with me.

@ Bartstop - to confuse??? Well if that's what value you got from it then Okay, i guess
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #6,811
  • Sep 1, 2010 11:16am Sep 1, 2010 11:16am
Quoting bartstop
This fib was meant to confuse people. That all.
The red 50 is still significant.
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  • #6,812
  • Sep 1, 2010 11:25am Sep 1, 2010 11:25am
Quoting GridTrader
Scotty come on man. You're not going to let me go boating today are you.

You have no idea what I'm doing nor the fact that I had orders in prior to any obvious SR, pullback swings, Sam Seiden, etc.. etc... , or what you see on my chart. You can say what you want regarding your own analysis and how you view things - which is cool and all. I respect that, but you DO NOT know what I'm doing. If you did you be singing a different tune I PROMISE YOU. It was simple SR, I'd be profitable a LONG TIME ago!! I never showed by fib...SO quit telling me the...
I don't think I've said anything so far to suggest that it doesn't take a lot of time to become a profitable trader, I'm just shedding some reality on how the market works.

I wasn't responding to you per se, but to those who are buying into the magic. If anything, you should be very proud that I don't know of a magical code. I don't know if you've thought about this or not, but when trading S/R it's quite easy to set an order in advance. It's a little risky because you might want to see the market react there first, but then your R:R isn't as pretty.

If you really do control the universe with your fibs, it would probably be in your best interest to let me go on thinking I'm right and quit making silly promises, after all, cheap liquidity is a beautiful thing.
  • #6,813
  • Sep 1, 2010 5:27pm Sep 1, 2010 5:27pm
Hey Scotty. It's all good. Not once have I discounted SR. I've only said what follows it's notes. I never said they control the market or the universe. Get a grip. The thing is you can TRY to find what SR is significant and in trying can you yourself be certain? Fibs tell the story man. Re-read my confession post. Do you seriously think I never questioned things myself in the course of 6 years trading, 3 on fibs alone? I don't need your 101 lessons on SR and how the market works. I've done that already - so your telling me nothing new that I don't already know.

FYI, your 50% fib chart means nothing. It's a nice analogy though - and all in hindsight, but can you successfully trade it over and over again? Maybe but I seriously doubt it.

This thread is mainly about Fibs and the structure of using them - a tool, remember? To hopefully settle your 'argument' - I agree SR holds weight here. I never argued that. What you are lacking though is a broader understanding of SR and what you think you already know - but don't. Your tank is only half full my friend. Oh yah... and yes I am being honest here. All 138.2%.

So... with this being my last post here I really have nothing more to say. Its a waste of time and your point is good - cheap liquidity is a beautiful thing, so yes I'll personally thank you for today's 300+ pips. Your a real champ!

I came in to try and encourage and show what is possible. The result was sarcasm, charts created to 'confuse' and lessons on the basic foundations of SR (which felt like watching re-runs of Gilligan on the tube). You can take your lessons to the newbies section here at FF. It would be of better use or of course start your own thread - in which case I'll see ya there, but I won't be holding my breath.

C-ya
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #6,814
  • Sep 1, 2010 6:12pm Sep 1, 2010 6:12pm
I hear ya Grid. Likewise....I'll tune out as well. Really just wanted to pop in and leave a few words of encouragement to any newbs out there who might consider SB the ultimate authority on what is worth your time in looking at.

Speaking of Scotty.....we did have that golf game earlier (Me, Skunny, Sizz & Thom). You can NOT beat drinking Coronas and Pina Coladas on a golf course.

The match was fun.....only problem was some of Scotty's antics while caddying.

Picture 1: He argues with Thom about Fibs while golfing.
Picture 2: He argues with Sizz's ball on the green.
Picture 3: He makes the mistake of arguing with Bob Barker (who was in the foursome in front of us) and Bob decks Scotty.

Other than that....it was a blast!

Cya later alligators!
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  • #6,815
  • Sep 1, 2010 6:17pm Sep 1, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting GridTrader
Hey Scotty. It's all good. Not once have I discounted SR. I've only said what follows it's notes. I never said they control the market or the universe. Get a grip. The thing is you can TRY to find what SR is significant and in trying can you yourself be certain? Fibs tell the story man. Re-read my confession post. Do you seriously think I never questioned things myself in the course of 6 years trading, 3 on fibs alone? I don't need your 101 lessons on SR and how the market works. I've done that already - so your telling me nothing new that I don't...
No, this thread is about a marketing scheme. There is nothing in this thread that will be very useful to anyone, well, not for long anyways. I'm glad to see you concede that you're just a S/R trader. The fibs are still a joke though, that's why you guys have nothing substantial to counter me with other than statements about how you got a lot of pips today,that and 'fibs' that are pretty much 'completed,' or old price charts with pretty lines. Everybody wins in hindsight.

You guys think that the only way to counter me is to reveal the great skunny secrets. But had you guys planned your time here better, you could have made several trade calls, nothing says you know what you're doing like putting your money where your mouth is. I told Thom to do that a while back and it was a flop, of course. So if you really want to show us whats possible (as you said) then go right ahead, the stage is yours. So far you've proved nothing, just spewed a bunch of rhetoric.

To the onlookers, none of these so called expert fib traders will do this, simply because they can't. Don't waste too much of your time with a tool that is limited in it's uses, especially years! And as our parents use to tell us, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is!

We are all waiting,

Scotty
  • #6,816
  • Sep 1, 2010 6:23pm Sep 1, 2010 6:23pm
One last goody and I'm gone. Posted by a friend of mine.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...20&postcount=1
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #6,817
  • Sep 1, 2010 6:25pm Sep 1, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting Brunite
I hear ya Grid. Likewise....I'll tune out as well. Really just wanted to pop in and leave a few words of encouragement to any newbs out there who might consider SB the ultimate authority on what is worth your time in looking at.

Speaking of Scotty.....we did have that golf game earlier (Me, Skunny, Sizz & Thom). You can NOT beat drinking Coronas and Pina Coladas on a golf course.

The match was fun.....only problem was some of Scotty's antics while caddying.

Picture 1: He argues with Thom about Fibs while golfing.
Picture 2: He argues with Sizz's...
I don't think you're remembering it right. Bob beat me up because skunny put him up to it. Skunny saw me adjusting the the wrong side of my fib. He said "Scotty, we never never never, ever ever ever, adjust the break side of the fib-- lets get with it!" Then he laughed at the fib paradise guys for fibbing the market backwards. Luckily for them, I was the only guy who took the heat for it.
  • #6,818
  • Sep 1, 2010 7:10pm Sep 1, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting GridTrader
One last goody and I'm gone. Posted by a friend of mine.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...20&postcount=1

Nice to see that post by Diallist again. Here's part of a discussion I had with Diallist on this very thread. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4036

I hope people pay particular attention to the list of "scam indicators" I included. For the sake of convenience, here they are again:

==================================================

1. Promises which are too good to be true. A formula which turns water into gasoline, penis enlargement creams and the holy grail of FOREX are among these.

2. Claims to possess "the big secret." If a method could actually allow someone to constantly profit with large expectancy, it wouldn't remain a secret for long. The owner of the "secret" would either make enough money to buy the galaxy, or once discovered, everyone would start using the method which would eliminate its usefulness.

3. Instructions for success which are intentionally vague. The scammer refuses to be nailed down on the details and instead instructs the customer to do more research, work, study or whatever. There is a constant mantra such as "It's all in Dianetics, you just haven't reached clear yet," or "the answers are in this or that holy book if you just believe," or "read the thread again; it's all in there."

4. Putting the onus for failure on the customer. This depends on #3 above. Since the method is vague, the scammer will blame any failure on the customer's inability to use the method "correctly." But "correctly" is never quite defined.

5. Lack of any objective testing of the method. This also depends on #3 above. If the method remains vague enough or if the scammer just keeps introducing new variables into the method, then it's impossible to test it to see if it really works.

6. Appeals to emotion in the face of rational skepticism. This can take many forms. At first the scammer will act all hurt and offended if you question them. They will tell you all about how they're doing all this for a good cause and how dare you doubt them. Then they'll accuse you of "looking for free handouts" in an effort to provoke an angry response. This is important because such a response then reduces the credibility of the questioner in the eyes of other potential suckers. Ultimately, the scammer will simply resort to ad-hominem attacks and profanity. On the net, they may do this through the use of multiple accounts and sock puppets. But they never get around to answering the questions.

This is an anatomy of a scam. These six signs are not exhaustive, and you may be able to think of some others.
  • #6,819
  • Sep 1, 2010 7:26pm Sep 1, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting capitalist88
Nice to see that post by Diallist again. Here's part of a discussion I had with Diallist on this very thread....
And he wouldn't make a website and charge access fees for it, since he'd be a gazillionaire and wouldn't need the pocket change the fees would amount to, comparatively. And I love the excuse of "the fee is to separate those truly serious about this from the rest".
  • #6,820
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:09pm Sep 1, 2010 10:09pm
I am not active at FF anymore due to the type of arguing that is going on here in this thread. A friend asked if I had visited here anytime recently. I believe if you have something negative to say, and believe you really have a reason to bother those here that are trying to work, then come in and say it in one post and move on. Otherwise let these folks, that are either trying to figure out fibs or already trading profitably, alone so they can focus. With that thought - here is my one post hoping to shed light on another side of the fib world.

I am a former professional trader that left MSSB (Morgan Stanley Smith Barney) at the end of Dec. 2009 to trade personal assets. I was recruited from Citigroup prior to the merger of MSSB. I ran a prop desk at both firms using index programs I developed and managed nearly $500 Million and consulted on another $ Billion+. That made me a small to medium size prop desk. Contrary to what you might think, there are very few training programs for traders after they are hired. Most traders come in with a program they already trade or they work assistance for years until they get their shot. For this reason I have learned several different trading systems over the years to continue developing my knowledge base. Some were a waste of time for me and others were not.

Several Skunny members (some of which were members of other sites too) have stuck together and figured out a way to trade the markets solely on fib analysis. Some of this information came from Skunny and some of it from our own testing. We agreed a long time ago, due to the MASSIVE hours we put in, not to share that knowledge with others outside our trading / testing group. There are at least 2 dozen members that are friends and actively trading.

I agree there are faster ways to learn the market via SR, etc. but none that I have seen that are as accurate as fibs (including Auction Market Theory). My typical trade is +1.5 Reward to Risk (Rr) on the first quick exit and anywhere from +3 to +20 Rr on the final lots / contracts depending on the runner. I am using a tight risk SL and I trade almost exclusively the ES (S&P 500 e-mini futures). I traded / worked with fibs starting many years ago after I witnessed them being drawn at one of the major wirehouse technical analysts rooms in 1993. But I began earnestly studying them several years ago. I trade only with a 70%+ win rate but, because the +Rr is superior, I do well. One of the original members of Skunny's room eventually learned how to trade at what I call 99% win rate. He can map the market moves almost perfectly but the drawdown was too much for my personality. I consider him (and maybe a few others) better traders than I am. These are professional men/women that have spent years developing their respective system.

My experience is just that of one former professional trader. I know there are many other methods that are good, just none that I like compared to my fib analysis in the way I like to trade. For example, I know one trader I have spent some time with - he amazes me in that he can take a news event, and he is so good at his former SOES trading, he can read the DOM and make trades that I never see. That is what I call true tape reading. Amazing. It took him years to develop that ability. Thanks for reading and good luck to all.

Laboring
Under
Correct
Knowledge
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