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AUD/USD

  • #22,761
  • Aug 31, 2010 5:11am Aug 31, 2010 5:11am
there's not much momentum to push up the price. entered short x 2 @ 8897. first target is 8845
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #22,762
  • Aug 31, 2010 9:35am Aug 31, 2010 9:35am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100831_au_h4.PNG Size: 49 KB


We are currently in the middle of an h4 downtrend, although the MAs have converged, so we could go in either direction from here.

I took a short after the weekend open that created a novice gap right into a supply zone. If you want to know the difference between novice and professional gaps, you should see the following webinar - http://www.fxstreet.com/live/session...2-58e60f5d5814

I have already cashed in my 2 runners at a R/R of 8:1 before we got to the aggressive demand zone and I have moved the SL of my 3rd runner to BE as it is outside the bollinger bands, but that does not mean that price can't go back there.

Looking at the weekly/monthly, we are very high up on the curve and it is a long way down. I am feeling bearish on AU right now. Anyway, I have a free runner on this one.

Good luck with your trades
  • #22,763
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:01am Aug 31, 2010 10:01am
Last fix of the month, and it looks like a lot of short covering.
"If it was good enough for Gann, it's good enough for me..."
  • #22,764
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:44am Aug 31, 2010 10:44am
Quoting FFBrian13
Last fix of the month, and it looks like a lot of short covering.
If that's the case and P.A. could reach 50% retracement of last H1 swing, I'll take the short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 26 KB
  • #22,765
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:48am Aug 31, 2010 10:48am
Quoting kandarv
If that's the case and P.A. could reach 50% retracement of last H1 swing, I'll take the short.

looks like a good play
"If it was good enough for Gann, it's good enough for me..."
  • #22,766
  • Aug 31, 2010 11:04am Aug 31, 2010 11:04am
I have a fundie/macro question. Greenback strength is due to the flight from risk. Politics aside, the fact is the US government is in a lot of debt due to its stimulus policies. Employment is US has improved, but not dramatically, CPI is low, Consumer Confidence has regressed and the housing market is abysmal. If, and at what point, will investors gravitate toward the Aussie as a symbol of strength? The Aussie has been a barometer of risk, but unemployment is much stronger than the U.S., inflation data is much more bullish and Interest Rates are higher (carry trade). I know investors are looking to the future, and the expectation is that the US will remain the beacon of economic strength, but will the better than expected data out of Australia alter that perception?
"If it was good enough for Gann, it's good enough for me..."
  • #22,767
  • Aug 31, 2010 11:27am Aug 31, 2010 11:27am
Quoting FFBrian13
I have a fundie/macro question....
I tend look it this way. Australia is a big commodities export oriented country. So their economy is highly dependent on what other countries consume, U.S. the biggest market of the world, has a high unemployment lowering products consumption expectation, meaning less exports for Australia.

On the political side, the so far hung parliament has created some sort of cloud regarding the miners tax, which Labor party intend to do. If that tax is implemented probably will dive the pair 'cause will limit further investments.

IMHO
  • #22,768
  • Aug 31, 2010 2:00pm Aug 31, 2010 2:00pm
SP500 has a meaningful break of 1040 this pair could drop like a rock along with the SP500. Thoughts?
This is what awesome feels like
  • #22,769
  • Aug 31, 2010 2:25pm Aug 31, 2010 2:25pm
I'm cutting loose my longs. Switching to short bias. I don't think my previous Wave Counts for this pair and Eur/Usd were correct.
"If it was good enough for Gann, it's good enough for me..."
  • #22,770
  • Aug 31, 2010 2:36pm Aug 31, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting BudFox
SP500 has a meaningful break of 1040 this pair could drop like a rock along with the SP500. Thoughts?
I Agree but its all about timing... do you think there will be a rally before a the dump or do you think we are ready to fall to QE2 land... really depends on your patience lol
  • #22,771
  • Aug 31, 2010 2:54pm Aug 31, 2010 2:54pm
Quoting sidhujag
I Agree but its all about timing... do you think there will be a rally before a the dump or do you think we are ready to fall to QE2 land... really depends on your patience lol

It seems there are enough risk events through the rest of the week that it could initiate the break down, like you say timing is very important. Hell, its hard enough to get the direction right, timing that direction is the tricky part, IMO. I've been watching the ES closely this week b/c of the correlation with this pair.

As I type here comes a late rally, almost feels like someone in the Treasury just starts buying equities when the straw is about to break.

I've got a short bias on this pair right now, and am thinking the 200 day SMA will keep it in check for now, also good resistance at 8910/20. Of course there could be an inverse H&S forming, which would be bullish.

As always time will tell, I just need to be patient.
This is what awesome feels like
  • #22,772
  • Aug 31, 2010 3:06pm Aug 31, 2010 3:06pm
Wanted to attach my SP chart.

1065-1040 is the range I see in this chart, also a TL coming up from the low in Jul '09.

A break below these supports should mean a move a south for the aud/usd, of course a bounce from the TL and a rally from 1040 could keep this pair heading higher.

No clear winner right now, smart thing would be to see which direction the market goes and tag along for the ride.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8_31sp500.JPG Size: 73 KB
This is what awesome feels like
  • #22,773
  • Aug 31, 2010 9:22pm Aug 31, 2010 9:22pm
Quoting BudFox
It seems there are enough risk events through the rest of the week that it could initiate the break down, like you say timing is very important. Hell, its hard enough to get the direction right, timing that direction is the tricky part, IMO. I've been watching the ES closely this week b/c of the correlation with this pair.

As I type here comes a late rally, almost feels like someone in the Treasury just starts buying equities when the straw is about to break.

I've got a short bias on this pair right now, and am thinking the 200 day SMA will...
Feels that way doesn't it?

I been watching this price action in M1 and exactly my thinking. Large orders when price falls hard and its relentless until sellers give up. It's being protected by printing press for sure. If hedge funds/investors/large traders are all negative... who's buying?
  • #22,774
  • Aug 31, 2010 9:46pm Aug 31, 2010 9:46pm
Looks like its responding to the HSBC Manufacturing PMI figures.
  • #22,775
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:01pm Aug 31, 2010 10:01pm
Quoting kandarv
If that's the case and P.A. could reach 50% retracement of last H1 swing, I'll take the short.
Invalidated by better than expected GDP q/q looking for short entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 28 KB
  • #22,776
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:05pm Aug 31, 2010 10:05pm
I got stopped out twice trying to pick a turn...
that said, 1.2 v 0.9% GDP is good news, it may not be enough to be sustained. Overall, I still think this is bearish, just got to pick a spot an hold

looking at 0.9015 as the turn - topping levels
  • #22,777
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:15pm Aug 31, 2010 10:15pm
Quoting dalvin_au
I got stopped out twice trying to pick a turn...
that said, 1.2 v 0.9% GDP is good news, it may not be enough to be sustained. Overall, I still think this is bearish, just got to pick a spot an hold

looking at 0.9015 as the turn - topping levels
ditto
  • #22,778
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:22pm Aug 31, 2010 10:22pm
Quoting sidhujag
Feels that way doesn't it?

I been watching this price action in M1 and exactly my thinking. Large orders when price falls hard and its relentless until sellers give up. It's being protected by printing press for sure. If hedge funds/investors/large traders are all negative... who's buying?
what "investors" would be negative??.... also how do you know hedge funds and large traders are negative?
  • #22,779
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:23pm Aug 31, 2010 10:23pm
Kandarv, I heavily rely on chart patterns and stochs to determine when I can get in. it looks like its still risky to go in at 0.9015.
I may just take a more philosophical view, in that if it drops to 0.8950, then I know for sure, I am in a bear trend...
this is due to the strenght of the Index (AUS200 about to break 4500) plus, USD question marks for my fundamental thinking.

Chart tells me a short...its a when for me
  • #22,780
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:28pm Aug 31, 2010 10:28pm
Quoting dalvin_au
Kandarv, I heavily rely on chart patterns and stochs to determine when I can get in. it looks like its still risky to go in at 0.9015.
I may just take a more philosophical view, in that if it drops to 0.8950, then I know for sure, I am in a bear trend...
this is due to the strenght of the Index (AUS200 about to break 4500) plus, USD question marks for my fundamental thinking.

Chart tells me a short...its a when for me
Charts and fundamentals (U.S.) tells me short too, but I'm also monitoring COT, it is possible a change of trend by end of month. My goal is to open a big fat long position on AUDJPY, so waiting for USDJPY to reverse, also maybe by the end of month.

So far .90 looks topish.
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