How about a DOW chart?
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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny
Just curious, did you have a fibo predicting the same bounce on GU?
The reservation I have with Skunny's (and others') fib theory is that their fibs aren't pulled off the most obvious highs and lows, hence they lack the visibility to generate the orders needed to create any kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. Or, to rephrase it as a question, how can a method that's known by only a handful of retail traders possibly have a gravitational effect on future market moves?...
Saw your post and felt compelled to reply. I appreciate your respectful tone. Likewise I have used a few of your custom indy's in the past so feel I owe you a reply.
(Likewise; could not resist posting the preceding...lol!!)
Did I have a GU fib? Yes I did. It hit beautifully. That is; if, you can consider within .2 pips beautifully. Thus; I answer your question. Could I post a chart? Yeah. But doing so would be the equivalent of a surgeon letting someone watch an operation and then that person think they can replicate the procedure. Or of someone watching a skilled lawyer in court and think that qualified them to do the same. There is MUCH that goes on behind the scenes and un-noticed. Tiny meaningful things that only come with practice and study. IMHO; that is why the majority of people who thread hop here will never get it. They are looking for instant success. No field in the REAL world provides instant success. Why look for it in FX?? Wacko expectations really. (BTW; don't read any bragging into the above. Just making a point with analogies.)
Anyone who really commits and spends as much time learning this craft as a doctor, lawyer, engineer, whatever; can eventually succeed. Most are not willing to pay that steep price (3-4 years for me to see the stuff I see now....5-6000 hours worth of time). Those not willing to put in the time can reconcile their failures with ridicule. Always has been that way. Basic Psych 101 self defense mechanism stuff.
Anyway. Hope this answer helps. It probably does not. But at least I hope I gave "something" of value in return for the indy's you gave me.
Jeremiah WAS a bullfrog.
- #6,707
- Aug 28, 2010 4:31pm Aug 28, 2010 4:31pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,112 Posts
David, Saw your post and felt compelled to reply........
Many thanks for your reply. I'm really glad that you found the indys useful; it makes the time I spent seem worthwhile.
I totally agree with your "years of study" comment, and that picking up details comes with time and experience. When I first looked at forex charts, they appeared completely random. Four years of reading, and hundreds of of screen hours, later, and I've finally discovered some tools that paint a decent enough road map for me to make some sense of the price action.
I always believed that Skunny was onto something, but I couldn't follow his teaching style. May I respectfully ask you a few more questions? If you don't wish to answer them, that's fine.
You say that you're unwilling to post charts. That's cool; no problem. Is it because what you've learned is too complex to be easily explained, or simply that you don't wish to share it (i.e. why should anybody gift the result of hundreds of hours of work to lazy folk looking for a handout)?
Once when I questioned Skunny, trying to corner him into giving an objective and unambiguous explanation as to what points to pull the fibs from, he spoke of 'intuition'. Are there specific rules about how you choose the points, or is it just something that you gain a 'feel' for, that improves with experience?
Is it an incredibly simple pattern that you suddenly discovered one day after many hours of study, or a kind of a growing knowledge?
Thanks for considering my questions. I'm trying to decide whether or not it's worth my while to invest more time trying to figure 'it' out for myself. Another tool that's capable of accurately picking or confirming reversal points would be a great addition to my analysis toolbox. However, last time I went down this path, I ended up confused and frustrated....... and even more so because it makes no logical sense to me how a tool that takes no cognizance of underlying market drivers could be used in a predictive role. If all I know is HOW something works, then all I'm really doing is copying somebody else's idea; but if I know WHY it works, then that gives me greater ability to develop the idea further myself. I'm sure you know what I mean.
Thanks,
David
- #6,708
- Aug 28, 2010 5:01pm Aug 28, 2010 5:01pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: The End is Where We Begin | 260 Posts
Mark Ritchie tells a story of a guy who came down to the trade floor who's trading plan was pretty much "I'll do what ever the Lord leads me to do, I'll trust him to give me buy and sell signals..." As it turned out, the dude lost all his money and was gone within three weeks. He discounted the need to understand what he was doing.
LOL! That is the funniest thing I ever heard. Like God is wearing some type of bookie cap, waving his wand at our command, sitting back just waiting to give us today's trade signals - because of course that is the most important thing on his list for our lives. Doesn't sound like a lack of wanting to understand, as much as pure laziness - not wanting to put in the hard work and effort.It's an endless debate of who is right and wrong with you. See here is where I should be listening to my peers and not even bother with this thread any longer. Shame on me - a pure waste of time. You've seen pivots hit fib levels repeatedly... but that part is just purely REPEATED coincidence I guess. All nonsense until understood EXACTLY why.
Over and out.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
- #6,710
- Edited 11:34pm Aug 28, 2010 11:06pm | Edited 11:34pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,112 Posts
Skunny was a fool and a liar. End of story.
However, as a general rule, I'd say that maintaining a default view of skepticism can save newbies from wasting a lot of money on vendor snake-oil. If somebody claims he has a grail system with a 100% win rate, or is trading a multi-million dollar account; and then six months later opens a pay-for-view forum, or otherwise solicits money from others, well, I'd definitely see that as a probable red flag. There have been plenty of other such instances.
- #6,711
- Aug 28, 2010 11:30pm Aug 28, 2010 11:30pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,112 Posts
That's just silly. The market isn't a natural phenomenon that has some inherent geometry in its DNA or a mathematical pattern. It isn't something God created. It's just people buying and selling. Any fib retracements/extensions/projections are random points unless they happen to coincide with something that does matter, or enough people/money are actually using that particular retracement/extension to cause the market to react at that point (unlikely, same with most other indicators).
If fibs (or anything else) 'works', there has to be a valid underlying reason, that's somehow grounded in the way in which markets actually operate. Of course it's possible that nobody's discovered it yet. Anything else can only be fortuitous.
Trading involves emotion, for sure, but I've yet to see any hard evidence that the human nervous system is somehow wired to behave 'fibonastically'. And even if that were so, given that price charts are the result of herd behavior, shouldn't the calculated level reflect a kind of collective averaging, rather than the level where the last order, the one that turns the market, gets placed?
I'm not looking to take one side or the other out of a sense of prejudice, just asking what for me seem to be the relevant questions, and seeking reasoned discussion.
- #6,720
- Edited 6:44pm Aug 29, 2010 6:45am | Edited 6:44pm
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Informed | 1,641 Posts