EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

What do you guys think of the PB bar on Daily and on the weekly? Week is about to be over now.

Hi guys, been long...been pretty busy planning something which will be posted on FF soon.

Anyway i see some (or may be good) upside here. (I dont do fundies Just FYI, just in case)

BOUGHT @ 8179 and holding this is a short term trade (usually i do very quick intra-scalping)

I am looking at 8400 first and even 8600 .
For stop loss will be looking at 8149 first and then 8065 (I will take that there is BIG BIGGY SUPPORT at 8100+-5 area )
RR is pretty good IMO, in this case and move will be quick, esp if it will be a retracement (or else it will be a downward trendline breakout)
Got to WnW, as usual. Boring markets
Cheers

Would you do me a favour? Draw a flat line at .8180 for the last 24 hours and tell me what you see?

Here it is what i see (RED LINE)
Kindly let me know if there is some thing important, i m missing.
Regards

Oops.. for the last 24 hour chart.. here it is
Important level !

We can see it on the hourly chart the best:



I might be wrong but I would not be considering longs here. If you would let me know with a chart why you think long is good I would appreciate it as I am holding shorts and would like to know if I'm missing something?

even i believe that this is short for the exact same reason....

Its (8180's) constant testing and closing below (as you illustrated):
1) and still not going down ...which is making me curious. There have been multiple times.
2) Break down on Friday and yet no real downmove and moving up again (It should have seen the 29/06 lows on this break IMO, if it really had momentum)
3) Break down earlier today and still a not-so-weak comeback, forming a long wick previous H4
4) This 5week bear move feels like Fizzling out on h4 and higher TF (as per PA)
As posted before, even if it needs to move down more, a quick retracement up is likely.
5) On the larger Picture (weekly chart posted above), we surely are at IMPORTANT level which will repel. If the downward momentum is not nice, surely it gonna be repelled up!
Sub-8150 zone is a price-will-travel zone and not stationary zone.
(just if someone is interested in colors- http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=148882 )
6) H1 also shows a completing bullish wedge.

IMO Supra-8184 will be a some nice small breakout (20-30 pips) as can be seen on small TF.

Overall i am not bearish, if not super-bullish ! I would favor bulls and that y the trade!
In anyway, stops are always nice stuff.. and mine is also in place ( levels provided in previous post..i have mainly set them up at 8100+-5 area)
Regards

P.S. In the end, as they say it, every trader is fully responsible for every trade/action he/she does! I take full responsibility of mine.

Thanks for the analysis and I agree that the downtrend is currently losing momentum. However, I remain strongly bearish for this pair, but not stupidly so. My shorts will close if we have a convincing break above the upper trend line. Then we both make money out of the longs? http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1012 Good trading to you.

Upward price action is with some momentum but not enough.
There is a lot of supply overhead around 8210-8220 area (an imp weekly level here)
Previous 2 H1 wicks denote it clearly.

If breaks next will be 8250 and if breaks then 8310+-10 level

As upward PA is not that good (as till now), I have booked some position @8203 and rest is a free trade with BE stop.
My entry matches with today's DP 8179
Lets wait an watch, how this weekly bar ends!

P.S i will be the first to add position if this makes good PA ,around new high of the day from now.

hi
this is the 2 trend lines im watching, the green line i posted some time ago is still in play. i want to short again, but waiting till after the news now.
I think there are to many things that can go wrong with europe for it to have long term strength.

Adding to previous, Buy Stops @ 8207 placed. (though PA is still sloppy)
Lets WnW

Smikester,
Sorry for late replay. We have been having a lot of power cuts in recent days due to work being carried out on overhead cables. The village electricity is provided by generators at present and its not working very well.

I happen to like fibs but only as confirmation. I do not trade off them.

By far my biggest preference are patterns and then trading off EMA cross overs. And CCI or MACD as third confirmation for direction. I like using Heikin Ashi candles to determine duration of a move.

Totally agree with you on your comment regarding clean charts. Too many lines confuse the picture.

Same here. (often i do not use Fibs at all )
I have been very skeptic as far as using fibs on anything lower than say weekly/Daily TF may be. Though Fibs are something which have been strongly(or on an average) advised by many good traders (in my trading career; online/offline), i just can't rely on them. They only find a place in long TF charts for me to see may be the larger direction as a whole.

May be its due to the fact that there too many fib ratios floating around and there is no fixed rule as such of repel from something or its break (retracements and extentions)!
I always inform around people to use them as ADDON and on larger TF. Thats all.

P.S. YES they are always good to illustrate HISTORICAL Price action. Real-time..not sure about their real utility. CAVEAT: I can be a illiterate too .

Sucked in.
TP for all Longs including 8179 ones..around 8245-50 as of now !
(I think long term trading will never be of my kind ) Would be looking to enter next wk if TP is met. Else gonna hold (probably for higher targets)!
8250 is a support turned resistance level with some weekly resistance level around.
All Stops @ 8191 now.
Lets WnW (Price trying to zoom as of now; 8224 at DHigh)


P.S. Feel like if we remain above 8200 area, it gonna try to hit some more highs today itself.

Now feels like moving! Nice solid last M5 bar and the H1 ofcourse
All stops moved to 8199
Lets WnW

EDIT: Alright... not thinking much esp. with this slow movement at end of the week, just booking out every long @ 8219

Will see what we have, next week
Happy weekend, Hastalavista !

[quote=forexsaint;3981838]Same here. (often i do not use Fibs at all )
I have been very skeptic as far as using fibs on anything lower than say weekly/Daily

May be its due to the fact that there too many fib ratios floating around and there is no fixed rule as such of repel from something or its break (retracements and extentions)!
I always inform around people to use them as ADDON and on larger TF. Thats all.



Hi Forexsaint,


Love it: “Fibs are partial fibs”.

We get and see what we believe in and our experiences are the result of our beliefs, conscious and subconscious….and the latter is the danger…

Fibs IMO only have validity when co-inciding with support resistance levels and also shouldn't be taken too literally. Price often over/undershoots. I think being too textbook about these things is a sure fire formula for disaster. And yes, definitely too many ratios. I only look at 38.2, 50 and 618 and ignore the rest.

And on direction, I thought long on Friday too, but did not trade it, because of thin holiday trading. Maybe I am too cautious? I see a nice long in the making, that is if the Asian session plays ball. It is looking good off the 4 hourly & 1 hourly on a break above .8222 ish for initially 8244 and possibly 8277.

Once the UK bank holiday is out of the way, come Tuesday, we should see nice more sustainable moves in the currencies again. Even scalping was hard work this week. At least to me.

Incidentally, looks to me like cable is setting up for a nice move to the upside, if the present range holds.

So roll along the new week…

Merc

Alright..
Slow stuff..but lately a nice dip. Weekend profit booking was good idea..lol
Liquidity is still thin as hair.
I would be looking to go long later in the day, depending upon how, when and what type of bounce is there (ofcourse if happens)
I would be bearish(will short) below 8140 only.
Lets WnW

@TradeMerc
Agree. All in the end boils down to confluence of levels (fibs, pivots, marketprofile levels, dynamic SnR, Vodoo indicators and the jingi-lala levels..lol the last one i even dont know abt..just thought there will be somthing like that..lol)
and that in fact boild down to stacking odds in our favour, using multiple confirmations. Nothing is perfect/sure except may be you are the head of major bank.
Gist - Its just a probability game ( ah..not a game actually... a gladiator Colosseum)

If i hade to choose one pair to trade i think i would choose this one. The only real trouble seems to be a blast of around 20 pips up or down happening every other day or so. Id think this is a way of forcing private investors EA to take some losses. That and the usual breakouts, but this pair seem to be calm enough to only set you back around 15 pips in unexpected movement at breakouts, otherwise it seems like smooth sailing.

But i am wondering if you guys think there is some area that i should stay away from or that are very tough S/R, other then the .818 that we just smothly broke through?

Bye the way, hi Forexsaint. (im guessing you use that picture for mutiple profiles (3>))