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  • #881
  • Aug 19, 2010 8:07am Aug 19, 2010 8:07am
Quoting KissFan
I didnt see that one but would have taken it also.

K.I.S.S.

It was right at the london open as well.

whatever, it's a matter of probability
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #882
  • Aug 19, 2010 8:07am Aug 19, 2010 8:07am
New fibstrike idea. More simple criteria. Three higher or lower closes in a row. Price will usually continue in that direction. I propose a high probability trade where the three bars are fibbed and the trade is taken at the 618 retracement.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #883
  • Aug 19, 2010 4:47pm Aug 19, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting KissFan
New fibstrike idea. More simple criteria. Three higher or lower closes in a row. Price will usually continue in that direction. I propose a high probability trade where the three bars are fibbed and the trade is taken at the 618 retracement.

K.I.S.S.
Good idea for 60 pips on 30 min eurjpy. So far I'm liking this trade idea. 2R is good.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #884
  • Aug 19, 2010 6:12pm Aug 19, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting KissFan
Good idea for 60 pips on 30 min eurjpy. So far I'm liking this trade idea. 2R is good.

K.I.S.S.
It's cool, the 3 bars form a BEOB though ....
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #885
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:04pm Aug 19, 2010 7:04pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
It's cool, the 3 bars form a BEOB though ....
Very excellent point. In that case a 1.5 hr BEOB. I see.

Thanks for the observation.

K.I.S.S.
  • #886
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:53pm Aug 19, 2010 7:53pm
Quoting KissFan
Very excellent point. In that case a 1.5 hr BEOB. I see.

Thanks for the observation.

K.I.S.S.
and the USJPY 15 min. chart was a 45 min BEOB.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #887
  • Aug 20, 2010 1:11am Aug 20, 2010 1:11am
Watching for the break then a retacement. I'll try to follow up.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #888
  • Aug 23, 2010 5:39am Aug 23, 2010 5:39am
Hi Kiss,

Just a few questions about the way you trade.

You said you pull up fibs from the monthly candle and the weekly - how do you decide which direction to pull it from? If it’s a bullish candle do you pull from bottom to top and look for retracement entry or do you pull based on the overall trend and not the bar itself?

Once you have these levels plotted you will look for PA at these fib levels, if not PPZ can be seen at a fib level would you still take a PA set up? Do you worry about space / traffic when you trade in this way?

Look forward to receiving your response.
  • #889
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:49am Aug 23, 2010 8:49am
Quoting Pirabuji
Hi Kiss,

Just a few questions about the way you trade.

You said you pull up fibs from the monthly candle and the weekly - how do you decide which direction to pull it from? If it’s a bullish candle do you pull from bottom to top and look for retracement entry or do you pull based on the overall trend and not the bar itself?

Once you have these levels plotted you will look for PA at these fib levels, if not PPZ can be seen at a fib level would you still take a PA set up? Do you worry about space / traffic when you trade in this way?

Look...
Hello Pirabuji-
Doesnt matter which way I pull the fib as I am looking for a breach of either the zero or 100 line then low risk entries to get me to the 382 extension. If I want to go short, I will look for a set up on hrly, 4hr or daily that gets me the trade I want with low risk. I always use J16 style PA when trading. I just think that these fibs can give me an edge when looking for general direction.

K.I.S.S.
  • #890
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:52am Aug 23, 2010 8:52am
Here is another 3 consecutive bar lower set-up or as Dan Gilbert would say a 3 hr bearish outside bar set up. I am going to scale in shorts on this one. Target is .8146 or the lower .382 ext.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #891
  • Aug 23, 2010 9:02am Aug 23, 2010 9:02am
Hi Kiss,

So you wait for price to break the 0% or 100% of the weekly / monthly and then retrace to one of their fib levels and look for PA in the direction of the broken high / low?
Do you always target the 1.382 as your target?


Quoting KissFan
Hello Pirabuji-
Doesnt matter which way I pull the fib as I am looking for a breach of either the zero or 100 line then low risk entries to get me to the 382 extension. If I want to go short, I will look for a set up on hrly, 4hr or daily that gets me the trade I want with low risk. I always use J16 style PA when trading. I just think that these fibs can give me an edge when looking for general direction.

K.I.S.S.
  • #892
  • Aug 23, 2010 9:04am Aug 23, 2010 9:04am
Quoting Pirabuji
Hi Kiss,

So you wait for price to break the 0% or 100% of the weekly / monthly and then retrace to one of their fib levels and look for PA in the direction of the broken high / low?
Do you always target the 1.382 as your target?
Yes it is my usual taget on any trade that I take. I don't do much on monthly but weekly I watch very close.

K.I.S.S.
  • #893
  • Aug 23, 2010 2:31pm Aug 23, 2010 2:31pm
Another 3 consecutive bar lower set-up. I am going to scale in shorts on this one as well. Target is 60.02 (the lower .382 ext.)

K.I.S.S.
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  • #894
  • Aug 24, 2010 2:00am Aug 24, 2010 2:00am
Hey Kiss,

How do you scale into these? Do you add 1/3 on break of lowest bar and 1/3 on the 38 and 1/3 on the 61? Looks like this one didn't retrace but moved down a lot after break.


Quoting KissFan
Another 3 consecutive bar lower set-up. I am going to scale in shorts on this one as well. Target is 60.02 (the lower .382 ext.)

K.I.S.S.
  • #895
  • Aug 24, 2010 2:04am Aug 24, 2010 2:04am
Quoting Pirabuji
Hey Kiss,

How do you scale into these? Do you add 1/3 on break of lowest bar and 1/3 on the 38 and 1/3 on the 61? Looks like this one didn't retrace but moved down a lot after break.
Yes except instead of an additional positoin at 618 I usually add another aroound 76.4.

K.I.S.S.
  • #896
  • Aug 24, 2010 2:06am Aug 24, 2010 2:06am
Quoting KissFan
Here is another 3 consecutive bar lower set-up or as Dan Gilbert would say a 3 hr bearish outside bar set up. I am going to scale in shorts on this one. Target is .8146 or the lower .382 ext.

K.I.S.S.
I managed some profit out of this trade but will be adjusting my criteria to add that the third bar must have a convincing close as well.

K.I.S.S.
  • #897
  • Aug 26, 2010 9:26am Aug 26, 2010 9:26am
I am doing some revising to my "Single Bar Fibstrike" rules based on some testing I have been doing with some Forex Testing software. My eyes have really been opened here. I will be posting some statistics here as well from my observations. Some very hard and fast basic rules need to be noted at this time as well.

Rules:
1. Candle must break before entry.
2. BEOB's must be traded in a defined consolidation or at swing highs only.
3. BUOB's must be traded in a defined consolidation or at swing lows only.
4. If BEOB/BUOB just made a new high/low or taget will accomplish same-no trade.
5. BUOB/BEOB must close with conviction.


I am also reviewing whether the "scale in" strategy is best. As I post statistics I will be looking at what works best with each pair that I trade. The data is based on the IBFX feed. Obviously if you look at more data, you could potentially get more chances at these trades.

Statistics:

EURUSD 01.01.2010-07.21.2010 BUOB/BEOB only using the above rules:

34 trades There were 31 wher price made the 1.382 ext TP Target.
There were 3 Technical Failures
Out of the 31 winners, 2 retraced to the 50% before going to profit and 1 retraced to the inner .618 before going to profit. This means that out of 34 trades 28 never retraced to the inner .382 before going to the TP target at
the 1.382 ext. On one of the failures I observed that the target would make a new low.

K.I.S.S.
  • #898
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:40pm Aug 26, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting KissFan
I am doing some revising to my "Single Bar Fibstrike" rules based on some testing I have been doing with some Forex Testing software. My eyes have really been opened here. I will be posting some statistics here as well from my observations. Some very hard and fast basic rules need to be noted at this time as well.

Rules:
1. Candle must break before entry.
2. BEOB's must be traded in a defined consolidation or at swing highs only.
3. BUOB's must be traded in a defined consolidation or at swing lows only.
4. If BEOB/BUOB just made a new high/low...

Interesting. I no longer scale in on the retracement, I place my 1% risk trade on the 38.2 and my T/P on the -38.2 ext (I think you pull your fib in the opposite direction, so it would be the opposite side from the way you look at it).

I'm also interested in using the standard J16 method if the PA has no retracement, thus not allowing the fib strike retracement entry method to succeed. My theory is, if price breaks the PA pattern, and hits the EXT target before making any retracement, instead of taking profit at that extension, we can now look to execute a T/P at a trouble area, and possibly get into a 'free trade' when the extension is hit. This will allow for both methods to succeed (fib strike, and standard J16 management) and possibly stretch profits further, I am recording every trade I take, and will study these scenarios extensively within the next month or so.

Thanks for all this research Roger.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #899
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:44pm Aug 26, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
Interesting. I no longer scale in on the retracement, I place my 1% risk trade on the 38.2 and my T/P on the -38.2 ext (I think you pull your fib in the opposite direction, so it would be the opposite side from the way you look at it).

I'm also interested in using the standard J16 method if the PA has no retracement, thus not allowing the fib strike retracement entry method to succeed. My theory is, if price breaks the PA pattern, and hits the EXT target before making any retracement, instead of taking profit at that extension, we can now look...
Plenty more to come I assure you. Early indications are that most of these set ups go to profit withinn the next two bars-most on the next bar. i am looking at some Cable data now. I will look at a half dozen pairs on 4 hr and then Daily and make show my observations here over the next week. I will then do a longer term study of them and post the statistics as well.

K.I.S.S.
  • #900
  • Aug 27, 2010 1:19am Aug 27, 2010 1:19am
Hi Kiss,

Are you saying 28 of the trades never retraced to the 38.2? So instead of scaling in your positions at a 1/3 at break wouldn't it be better to open the full position at break?

P

Quoting KissFan
I am doing some revising to my "Single Bar Fibstrike" rules based on some testing I have been doing with some Forex Testing software. My eyes have really been opened here. I will be posting some statistics here as well from my observations. Some very hard and fast basic rules need to be noted at this time as well.

Rules:
1. Candle must break before entry.
2. BEOB's must be traded in a defined consolidation or at swing highs only.
3. BUOB's must be traded in a defined consolidation or at swing lows only.
4. If BEOB/BUOB just made a...
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