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  • #13,681
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:43pm Aug 25, 2010 8:43pm
Euro Pound looks like a good candidate to test boss S @ .8080

Worker is putting in LL's and LH's

Our 20 and 50 are on a nice slope downwards showing us we have selling momentum, 20 is also acting as R on the worker. Todays daily bar is a bond SS off of the 20 and R.

Boss is in agreement making LL's and LH's as well and looking to test boss S at .8080
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  • #13,682
  • Aug 25, 2010 11:12pm Aug 25, 2010 11:12pm
Quoting Forex Baby
Watching the EU chart....these are my observations,

Day before yesterday, worker broke a strong SR level at 1.2750 which is in conflucene with the 50, 38.2 FIB retracement of the move from June 07 to August 08 and also broke down the trend line drawn from June 07. I am now looking for the price to test this level again as Resistence and i will be short. However, if it brakes above that level i will be waiting and will not go long as 20 is just above it and also immediate weekly trend is down with monthly also shaping to be a bearish candle....

Welcome back!

Just as a reminder though we are asking that you post charts with a white backround for easy/cheaper printing.
  • #13,683
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:28am Aug 26, 2010 12:28am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Euro Pound looks like a good candidate to test boss S @ .8080

Worker is putting in LL's and LH's

Our 20 and 50 are on a nice slope downwards showing us we have selling momentum, 20 is also acting as R on the worker. Todays daily bar is a bond SS off of the 20 and R.

Boss is in agreement making LL's and LH's as well and looking to test boss S at .8080
Hey CC... I just want to understand that you are saying we would need a close below the .8080 on a confirming price action bar . I think that gets price into a really messy area though.

Lou
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  • #13,684
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:51am Aug 26, 2010 12:51am
Quoting Lou
Hey CC... I just want to understand that you are saying we would need a close below the .8080 on a confirming price action bar . I think that gets price into a really messy area though.

Lou
Not only that, isn't a spinning top, almost a doji, like that last bar a sign of indecision between buyers and sellers?
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #13,685
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:06am Aug 26, 2010 1:06am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Euro Pound looks like a good candidate to test boss S @ .8080

Todays daily bar is a bond SS off of the 20 and R.
Hi Crude Craig,
Why bond? It is after a strong bullish candle and is bouncing off R and 20?
  • #13,686
  • Aug 26, 2010 2:45am Aug 26, 2010 2:45am
Please note I have changed the 50sma to 50ema but have not changed the 250sma on the worker, should I change this or not?

Also the SR line colours are: red-Big Boss, Yellow-Boss & Green-Worker

BIG BOSS: Both MA's are down, the June candle was a BUOB off major SR. The July candle was higher indicating upwards momentum.

BOSS: Price is just below weeky SR and on the 50ema.

WORKER: Not a perfect series of HH & HL but respecting the 20ema which with the 50ema are pointing up.

It looks like the worker is in agreement with the BOSS and will look for PA around the weekly SR (yellow) for a possible long position to the next weekly SR. This is following the immediate trend.

Any comments are welcome.


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  • #13,687
  • Edited 4:51am Aug 26, 2010 4:05am | Edited 4:51am
Kalvind


First I should admit that I don't trade Strats way.

But with my limited understanding of the method shouldn't we be trading only when the BB/B and W are all pointing in the same direction.

To me the B and BB are very clearly in a downtrend.

The W immediate trend is up, so I would be waiting for the Worker to come back in line with the B and BB before going short not long.

Think I've been hre before with Eurchf tho so maybe I'm wrong.
  • #13,688
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:14am Aug 26, 2010 4:14am
Quoting kalvind
Please note I have changed the 50sma to 50ema but have not changed the 250sma on the worker, should I change this or not?
Yes, I think you should change it to 250 ema as it just a relection 50 x 5 = 250.

I don't know whether Cad weakness will play or GBP strength or both or nothing.
  • #13,689
  • Aug 26, 2010 9:18am Aug 26, 2010 9:18am
Quoting stewrigh
Kalvind


First I should admit that I don't trade Strats way.

But with my limited understanding of the method shouldn't we be trading only when the BB/B and W are all pointing in the same direction.

To me the B and BB are very clearly in a downtrend.

The W immediate trend is up, so I would be waiting for the Worker to come back in line with the B and BB before going short not long.

Think I've been hre before with Eurchf tho so maybe I'm wrong.
Big Boss
Price rejected by support @1.4650 and swing confirmed, thus now upward.
  • #13,690
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:16am Aug 26, 2010 11:16am
Quoting Money Magnet
Big Boss
Price rejected by support @1.4650 and swing confirmed, thus now upward.
Thanks MM,

Yep I can see the immediate ''trend'' is now up but I'm looking for an opp to go short, because the longer tern trend is down and IMO this is a retrace.
  • #13,691
  • Edited 2:28pm Aug 26, 2010 11:32am | Edited 2:28pm
Quoting stewrigh
...
To me the B and BB are very clearly in a downtrend.

I would have agreed on that during my first steps on the path. But as I understood the discussion now (and i am still a beginner), we are only looking at the last move on B and BB, which is going up.

The W immediate trend is up, so I would be waiting for the Worker to come back in line with the B and BB before going short not long.

So from my point of view Kalvind can take his trade from the perspective of the three trends. They are in sync in my eyes. But he should look for PA at the upper TL of his W chart.
  • #13,692
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:55pm Aug 26, 2010 1:55pm
GBP/CAD has been uptrending since the end of Spring. The fact GBP/CAD has been downtrending since probably 2004 to May 2010 has nothing to do with what is happening now. We just need to be aware of the fib retraces and the S/R on the way up, at which price could possible turn around and start another downtrend. But I don't see any new downtrend that developes as being related in anyway to what price has been doing since 2004. i.e. I wouldn't see it as a continuation of a past trend, I would see it as a new downtrend in it's own right.

Personally I see 1.7 on the cards, see what happens there.
  • #13,693
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:30pm Aug 26, 2010 3:30pm
Quoting stewrigh
Thanks MM,

Yep I can see the immediate ''trend'' is now up but I'm looking for an opp to go short, because the longer tern trend is down and IMO this is a retrace.
I think both of you can be correct. And I think Stewrigh your style is more on the longer term side, where you want to see Boss & B Boss goes up or down for several months and then you will feel the trend has changed.

Whereas the others look at the worker trend if it is making HH,HL or LL, LH and boss has taken turn in last few weeks and Big Boss is also at the turning point and then make our trading decisions. With this way of looking at the trend we don't miss the early signals any pair gives and can ride it successfully for several weeks and months. By following this way we also don't miss any major retracements e.g. 2000 pips in GU/ 1500 pips in EU.

Again what if GBPCAD keep going up and it goes to 2.00 will you regret not getting on board. Will you then change your mind that trend has changed.

Having said doesn't mean your interpretation of trend is wrong or anyone else is wrong. May be tomorrow this pair will start going down and will end up at 140 or will go up and consolidate at 175.

We just follow immediate trend on worker with guidance from B & BB. When immediate trend will change so would B & BB and we will follow again.
  • #13,694
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:08pm Aug 26, 2010 4:08pm
Quoting stewrigh
To me the B and BB are very clearly in a downtrend.
If you draw a few years trendline on BB that will be down oriented and therefore you can say that the BB trend is down. BUT... what is the "famous" immediate trend? Since last time we had this discussion my view changed.

IMO "immediate" depends on how much you plan to hold a position. Days, weeks, months or maybe years? I usualy hold a position from few days to maximum 2, 3 weeks at best. This is not even a candle on BB chart and therefore immediate trend on BB is last few candles in respect to BB closest SR level.

In GBPCAD case, the BB turned up after it hit the support. So for me the immediate trend is up. Switch to line chart and see in which direction BB is oriented in respect to the latest SR level.
At BB level I even consider bounces from support of latest candle as immediate trend.
  • #13,695
  • Aug 26, 2010 6:45pm Aug 26, 2010 6:45pm
Quoting PriceDao
To me the B and BB are very clearly in a downtrend.

I would have agreed on that during my first steps on the path. But as I understood the discussion now (and i am still a beginner), we are only looking at the last move on B and BB, which is going up.

The W immediate trend is up, so I would be waiting for the Worker to come back in line with the B and BB before going short not long.

[color=black]So from my point of view Kalvind can take his trade from the perspective...
First I should admit that I don't trade Strats way.

There is no discussion or response needed - this thread is for teaching my PASR method
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,696
  • Aug 26, 2010 6:47pm Aug 26, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting hcristea
If you draw a few years trendline on BB that will be down oriented and therefore you can say that the BB trend is down. BUT... what is the "famous" immediate trend? Since last time we had this discussion my view changed.

IMO "immediate" depends on how much you plan to hold a position. Days, weeks, months or maybe years? I usualy hold a position from few days to maximum 2, 3 weeks at best. This is not even a candle on BB chart and therefore immediate trend on BB is last few candles in respect to BB...
No discussion - the trend is the TREND you are trading - any other trend is COUNTER TREND!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,697
  • Edited 9:49pm Aug 26, 2010 9:17pm | Edited 9:49pm
Worth Following. It occurs in spurts, historically, but timeframes vary. As one would guess, it has been studied: In theory, it is said that "if there is a leader-follower relationship between two currency pairs, it is the currency pair with the larger interest rate differential that becomes the leader." Faithful readers have seen this discussed before.
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  • #13,698
  • Aug 26, 2010 9:21pm Aug 26, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting Lou
Hey CC... I just want to understand that you are saying we would need a close below the .8080 on a confirming price action bar . I think that gets price into a really messy area though.

Lou
Hey Lou,

PASR will tell if we get there just a observation right now. I have noticed though on some pairs that approach an area of previous consolidation that are already in a strong trend, Price will often blow through the middle of it because there is no boss SR in it and just test the extremes of the range.
  • #13,699
  • Edited 10:16pm Aug 26, 2010 9:22pm | Edited 10:16pm
Line in the Sand, in Reverse

I hope this illustrates a key point: One can make money on each side of the market if appropriate levels are marked. So, stop worrying about being correct. Truly successful traders can recover losses even when their initial positions are incorrect. Re-evaluation is always permissible (read mandatory throught the trade).

On a personal note. I have returned from an extended summer vacation poised to resume posting here; however, as a boat with no captain is prone to wander, I will likely be abandoning such plan. I imagine that Blackeagle will be doing the same, but I will not speak for him. Those of you who have so graciously written me privately are welcome to do so; I have enjoyed the social interaction!
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  • #13,700
  • Aug 26, 2010 9:49pm Aug 26, 2010 9:49pm
Quoting Raje$h
Hi Crude Craig,
Why bond? It is after a strong bullish candle and is bouncing off R and 20?
A Bond SS or Hammer is one which takes the shape of a traditional SS or Hammer but does not have the size and location that a true reversal SS or Hammer will have.

True SS and Hammers stick out like sore thumbs.
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