Indicators development for T101's not very simple method

You're right, risk is something very personal to each one.

Anyway, thanks for your input.

For my first day "seriously trading" this method:
+605 $
+660 $
-500 $ (in 10 minutes... due to news... forgot to monitor this one!)
+50 $
+160 $ (just stopped out while typing this)

So nearly 1000 $... not too bad for the first day... though not real money

not a problem. hopefully others will get a lot out of what was said by everyone in the last few pages. oh soon it will be real money..soon! just think. you trade this for 4-6 months non stop and you'll be buying damn near a new house or that new cool car you wanted or hey, even donate some bucks as well whatever you want! but you see the light. now it's time to shine it at the end of the tunnel of profit!

OK guys. Before we look at just the gains, let's look at what happened since.

Both the brokers that "missed" the losses at beginning of week, were the 2 brokers that "sold at the bottom" (top of sellall line after big run up), as well as probably got caught in some ranging. Both got took out by 560 stoploss (x multiplier to account for increase/decrease in Lots since Lots aren't 1 micro lot per pair or mini lot per pair).

Now let's look at the weekly gains up to this point:
Alpari UK: 0.10%
IBFX: 11.30%
MT4 ECN powered by ATC Brokers: no trades although same EA and indicator as other brokers.
CitiFX Pro: -2.31%
MBT MT4: -24.63%

Pretty pathetic I'd say, even if this week has ranged more than normal (or maybe not, since it ranges near 0 or near the peak on BuysVsSells all the time except for the run up(s) (and maybe "run down(s)" to 0 that happens sometimes).

hazelj, you been testing this EA? If so, why would you be ready to go live?

I see that:
1. Stoploss by PL is going to be removed by me.
2. Instead, we use price action, not fixed SL. Last low recorded on buyall (if buys is > 0) or sellall (if sells is > 0) SINCE last trade was closed is what will be used for stoploss on next trade. Note: last high recorded on buyall (if in buy all) or sellall (if in sell all) DURING last trade is what will be used for entry on next trade. If last high is not broken, then we have "peaked" and if we can lessen losses at the peak (hopefully by not trading, but we all know fakeout breakouts happen), we must do something to lessen the taking back of gains. I hope to find a way to get in on the 3 of 1-2-3, instead of waiting for the 2 to be broken (aka breakout). And as far as stoploss, we should maybe use the buyall value at the closing of the last trade if last trade was buyall. And also add entry condition that if stoploss is less than a certain amount, don't trade (maybe that would avoid some trades at beginning of week and at peak)?
3. We need to think about possible alternatives to lower risk and increase gains: lowering Lots if last trade ended in Stoploss maybe? increasing Lots if last trade ended in profit-locking? I don't know for sure. These are ideas.

But have we all seen proof of what I see every week that there is a "mountain" of gains to be made each week, and can we also agree that Stoploss and Lots/risk per basket trade is where we need to look for answers? and also look to see if we can use a method to determine ranging vs trending. Even with an indicator like that, it wouldn't keep us from "buying at the top" or "selling at the bottom".

But if you do notice something on buyall with candles (did I give that indicator out? ah, just look at GBPJPY) the bottom push down today showed this recent VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) student that the "pin bar" (aka "big volume, big spread (aka range) bar that closed near its high") was the end of the downtrend, and when that area was tested again, it was on high volume, but the bar was an up bar, which can be interpreted that the market makers were "absorbing supply (aka buying). This shows market stregth. The next test was on lower volume (showing supply was gone), which made the test succesful, meaning the market is again showing strength in the background. The first and second spike down were the market makers trying to sucker in the last "weak holders" they could, and to absorb supply while making it look like price was going to go down by testing the last spike low. Suckered my EA, which saw it as a breakout I think. I can't account for the big "taking back of my gains" any other way. 560 stoploss today was too tight. Price action still would have probably lost. Only other techniques like I've thought of and discussed will make the difference. It will most likely come down to MM (Lots/risk, and knowing when to increase risk and when to decrease risk and/or just remove risk by not trading if stoploss (maybe buyall value at time trade is ready to be placed minus buyall value at last trade exit is less than a certain amount; or on other end if getting into buyall, if 0 - sells line is less than a certain amount - JUST DON'T TRADE).

But I would say that although I want it as much as anybody here, that this EA is not ready for a live account hazel.

Regards,

Don

the only way to beat not getting faked out is not to trade with an EA. there's no simple answer for this. VSA will look different on different accounts and brokers, which does include volume, no mattter how good it is so i can't see how an EA all by itself will look at VSA, you saw the pinbar but will an EA see a pinbar? probably not since they can be defined differently. basket bars was the closet thing mathmatically to programming a pinbar. Kos can filter out entries because he's trading it by hand and theres the human eye. i can trade it by hand but most EA's will never get past the fact that they will trade rangbound markets. they will be a loss. but how much?

but as far as other methods to lessen losses, ther are few and far between. i just dont know of any that will be used in an EA. by hand, there are plenty of solutions if this is the case.

I have to say I understand Don's obstination find an automatic trading solution, because some people (I'm one of those) find it difficult to have success with forex, due to various reasons when trading with real money.

Unfortunately, I also have to agree with hazelj80, so far I have never been able to automatize any trading strategy, even the simplest or clearest one, and to achieve a correct success rate with an EA.

This is why I think the best solution is somewhere in-between, with semi-automatic trading: getting alerts when the main conditions are OK, and then deciding whether/when to enter. Easy to say of course, because the problem is precisely whether/when I should enter...

Yesterday I have earned +1253 $ (not in live of course), but today I have lost -500 $, trying to do the same as yesterday. So I'm still far away from live trading this method...

Anyway thank you all for your advice, it helps gaining better understanding every day... and maybe in a few weeks... have a try in real!

For most of these indicators to work with PFGBEST you need to set up the trade execution to Market Execution instead of Instant Execution. Since PFGBEST is not a Dealing Desk they use Market Execution instead. There are some changes a programmer may need to do change this but they can always contact me and I can give them the code needed. I realize this post is delayed but felt it important to have it out there for future reference

morning j,it seems you are getting on with this method now,

do you have a good entry worked out now

regards
william

Hi William,

I'm currently trying your "mixed method", i.e. Kos method when the trend is clear, and your method for range periods, and the results are not too bad for the moment. Well, still more losses than gains on range periods, but I'm just experimenting on this...

However it's not so easy to mix both methods, because when you concentrate on ranging periods (buying low and selling high), you have to use tight S/L and you may forget to enter with the classical criteria, and consequently miss the bigger moves.

But I think you got the right approach to basket trading, so I'm trying to follow your way of doing... hope I understand it well. (BTW I sent you a PM yesterday)

Just to understand it well: when trading the range period, do you only trade with the larger trend?

JL

hi j,good to hear that you feel your getting somewhere with what feels right for you.
i went long yesterday at bottom of hourly range currently its 700 + and has found itself clear of that hourly range,this happened during the asian session and im watching london to see if it gets pulled back.
i think to be aware of the ranges as a reason not to enter given trades is probably far safer than trading them ,but certainly whilst in demo its good to try variations and find what works and what doesn't and one also gets to feel the market.,
personly i will take counter trend trades but dont recommend this ,if you trade the high of the range in the direction of the trend short in theory you are re entering
that certainly puts the odds in your favour
regards

william

Oh, come on, My EA tells me that yesterday was RANGING..!! waisting money.. . Today too (for this moment..) is RANGING!!

Good luck.

yep. it comes down to ranging vs trending. we must find a way to not trade during a range. otherwise the nice trends we get profit on, we'll give it back during ranging times.

So for now, I go back to trading and programming for single pairs until I feel like getting back on T101. Because afterall, I can trade more Lots trading one single pair, so unless the basket can be automated, IMHO it's not better than trading a single or multiple pairs and not a basket.

Just my humble opinion, knowing that yes there are at least 1,000 pips that can be gained each week (and most of that in a day like I got this week on IBFX: 11%, but unfortunately no other brokers tested near as well with my EA. unless you have two trends during the week, or a big up and then big down, then you may have more than one day of good profit. the rest is ranging, and unless you do as Julius did at times I remember - stop trading on like Tuesday, then how can you cut out the ranging which takes your gains?).

Regards,

Don

es.yep. it comes down to ranging vs trending. we must find a way to not trade during a range. otherwise the nice trends we get profit on, we'll giv
e it back during ranging time

its very frustrating periods like this, but unfortunately the market does this more than trending,thats why im interested in trying to find if theirs away to benefit from these periods as i do on a single currency.
but julias and co from the original method ,s certainly
took advantage of the moves within the ranges ,ie today selling the jpy pairs would have been highly profitable.

but i know your interests lie in the ea for whole basket,but there are defiantly opportunities during these periods

regards
william

thus is gonna take sime MTF analysis and alerts for when things happen. I'm using basket charts. I use the H4 as my roadmap and the H1 for entry. i saw 900 pips this monring. H4 was long and the h1 was a confirmed pullback

this is how i'll do it from now on.

the other day I saw the same thing at over 1000 pips.... it's up to the individual as to what they want to see.

On one broker, for the week, I'm up 9.57% on closed trades and +5.41%
on open trades.
Another has taken no trades.
On another broker, for the week, I'm up 6.31% on closed trades and
+9.13% on open trades.
On another broker, for the week, I'm up 3.74% on closed trades and
-1.84% on open trades.
On another broker, for the week, I'm up 2.82% on closed trades and
+5.30% on open trades.

I go by Long trend as Buys > 0, and Short trend as Sells < 0. Trading breakouts. If you look at above, I risk 7% per basket trade, which equals 560 pips, so
you can figure out about how many pips approx. that has been gained
since Sunday market open. This is using same EA as last week, no changes. Guess I'm testing it because I am sick and didn't feel like actually making any changes to test this week.

Regards,

Don

Been real real sick in bed. VPS went down Monday of course, and of course I didn't become aware of it until today. So when I started back up, it closed what were winners Monday as losers today. And of course another person I had checking out another EA, he was gaining pips, and guess what? his computer crashed too. Isn't that odd that 2 winning EAs on different places just happen to go down at the same time when experiencing winning, and when I'm losing, there is never a glitch in any of the software? Enough to piss off even the most patient person IMHO, especially when it's ONLY when I'm winning that I have "platform" or "software" problems. VPS shut down, they added software to make sure it wouldn't happen again, but I've been told this before.

Don

I'm glad to see that you are back again.

Do not be so pananoid..., EA based uppon T101 method are very heavy, and mind too..

But with T101 method you have enough money to buy a new computer...hehehe

Good luck.

Can someone explain why a basket chart reacts the same as a normal chart?

explanation what I mean:

when you make a basket lets say :

Buy usdcad,usdchf,usdjpy
Sell eurusd,audusd

You are gonna get a chart where you can find support en resistance,its reacting to lets say RSI etc. behaves as narmaly chart that you get on your brokers platform

well, its because it the "average price" of all 14 pairs, made into candles. it has to behave the same because now we don't have to go and make special basket indicators. just use you normal indicators on a basket chart. saves a lot of programming time. and it ends up being more powerful and more acurate than just using 1 pair.

I observed that if we create a basket chart, the chart will be close to a pair that has the greatest fluctuation
So I thought about to determine the stop loss on the basis of this pair.
Second when the pair is moving to a support or resistance level we can expect that the basket shuld also hit a support or resistance level.
I'm still a newbie and this is only my thinking.

well, they are close most of the time to a JPY pair, mainly the GBP/JPY but i never base my trades off of one pair. there's always that one or two times that it will do something different. but Kosolomate makes it work and that's what he uses