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Silent Service Method

  • #10,521
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:19pm Aug 24, 2010 7:19pm
Quoting InfinitySL
This is a bit off topic, but what the heck......
Actually, I believe that's a good trade if you are trying to preserve capital. I know it's not a set up, but by all means, post like this whenever you want: It might send off a light bulb in one of our reader's brains.....

Of course, Samer probably already knows this, and made a million or so - but we can't all be Samer, can we?
  • #10,522
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:44pm Aug 24, 2010 7:44pm
Quoting InfinitySL
This is a bit off topic, but what the heck...

Anyone else find it strange that XLU (the US Utilities ETF) yields about 150bp more than 10yr US Treasuries? No Lie, you can buy utility companies and earn a 4% annual yield (3x what my bank account pays) or you can lend money to the US Government at 2.5%. And need I remind you, they both pay you in US Dollars.

Anyway, these are some of the random thoughts that enter my head. Yeah, I know, utilities are just for widows and orphans but hey...people still pay their electric bill in a recession and...
Good call. Maybe not trading off charts, but common sense investing.

I heard this morning that right now the Fed. is split between those who want to keep interest rates at all time lows and those who want to start to raise rates.

Rates cannot stay this low forever, and if they do raise, I think things could get very ugly. But possibly soon US Treasuries will catch up with these Utility stocks.

BTW, I heard about people who bought 30 year T-Bonds at 12% interest back in the late 1970's or early 1980's, when inflation was sky rocketing.

Imagine that, you invested in a secure investment that will beat the history of the S&P. Some people made a killing on this.
  • #10,523
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:01pm Aug 24, 2010 8:01pm
Quoting InfinitySL
What are those red lines on your chart?....
The red lines are previous TL's I keep for a point of reference. The yellow TL's that form the wedge, if drawn in exclusion of the flash crash, and connecting the daily lows, produce a similar enough result that the difference is negligible.

Will it play nice? I don't get to know.
  • #10,524
  • Aug 25, 2010 3:16am Aug 25, 2010 3:16am
Quoting Low
Anybody looking at UJ for a buy?
I am looking to sell at the 84.97 resistance area.
  • #10,525
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:14am Aug 25, 2010 4:14am
Quoting InfinitySL
This is a bit off topic, but what the heck......
Dude, in other parts of the world utility companies are a license to print money. I constantly berate myself for not getting in on a piece of this thievery each and every time I get yet another "yawn" increase. These guys are like banks that no matter how bad things are for the general populous, they can still generate record profits. Sorry also for the off topic rambling.
  • #10,526
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:57am Aug 25, 2010 5:57am
Only had one limit order get hit while I slept-au/usd. I got stopped at +1 due to my trailing stop ea. lol Price is still dickin around the same area so.....

Watching eu and gu for price action to sell some more. These limits didn't get hit.
  • #10,527
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:13am Aug 25, 2010 7:13am
How many people are short EU?
  • #10,528
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:25am Aug 25, 2010 7:25am
Quoting jharvey407
How many people are short EU?
Missed an hourly entrance but will try again below 2600.
  • #10,529
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:07am Aug 25, 2010 8:07am
Hey guys. Just curious if any of you have ever tried this feature on freestockcharts.com (I have it highlighted on the screenshot below). Any feedback is very helpful. Maybe there's a way to try it out for free for a month -- i may email them and ask...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-08-25AlmostFree.png Size: 92 KB


PS - I am not short the Eur, in fact I have no open positions at all so I'm not the right person to ask!
  • #10,530
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:20am Aug 25, 2010 8:20am
Brutal Durable goods order number this morning....

The direction is getting clearer I believe.
  • #10,531
  • Aug 25, 2010 10:56am Aug 25, 2010 10:56am
Chris,

This week, I've read through the first 50 pages of the thread. Suffice to say, you've cured me of trading moving average crosses, no matter how pretty they look. (I'll have to tell the other FF thread I'm leaving) I always found the James16 thread a bit convoluted, but I suppose if I joined the PF that wouldn't be a problem. Your method is a bit easier to follow, since it allows for the fact that we all have our own trading style.


Anyway, to the idea at hand.... Was looking at CAD/JPY, and I see the following on 4H chart:

1. Bullish engulfing bar yesterday (see chart, in Blue)
2. ...which is also forming an 8 hour pin bar with the previous bar
3. ...which is also touching my "area of interest" weekly support at 78.50.

So, this looks like something to watch. While the immediate trend is down, looking at the weekly chart, we can see a history of ranging price between 78.50 and about 90, so would be looking for some price action on daily to show us if we are "at the bottom of the box" again.

Any comments are welcome! Just trying to see if I'm approaching this correctly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Disregard all prognostications.
  • #10,532
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:18pm Aug 25, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting calderone
Only had one limit order get hit while I slept-au/usd. I got stopped at +1 due to my trailing stop ea. lol Price is still dickin around the same area so.....

Watching eu and gu for price action to sell some more. These limits didn't get hit.
Well.....I suppose it's one more pip than you started with?
  • #10,533
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:19pm Aug 25, 2010 4:19pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Hey guys. Just curious if any of you have ever tried this feature on freestockcharts.com (I have it highlighted on the screenshot below). Any feedback is very helpful. Maybe there's a way to try it out for free for a month -- i may email them and ask...

Attachment

PS - I am not short the Eur, in fact I have no open positions at all so I'm not the right person to ask!

Never have tried it, but I really like the site - I would imagine it's good.
  • #10,534
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:24pm Aug 25, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting Pidgeon
Chris,

This week, I've read through the first 50 pages of the thread....

Yes you are. I have to admit, as time goes by, I am a little more comfortable going short a box that is already in a downtrend. But then again - there are all those profits waiting for you! So I recently came up with a solution.....

If you are going counter trend in a box, just simply take half a position. So if you normally risk 1%, then only risk 1/2.....or 1 if you normally risk 2%, etc.

I have found that trading these things can be quite profitable, but eventually they breakdown. (or up for that matter.) So odds are you will hardly take a hit when you go counter trend if it's a small position.

The idea is to play "ping pong" with it, but don't risk too much fighting the trend.

Hope that made sense.
  • #10,535
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:27pm Aug 25, 2010 6:27pm
locked a few bucks in....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,536
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:04pm Aug 25, 2010 8:04pm
Quoting jharvey407
How many people are short EU?
I'll put my hand up. I'm short at 1.26660. The downtrend appears to still be intact so waiting for that to resume.
  • #10,537
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:17pm Aug 25, 2010 8:17pm
Hey traders,

I am sure you have been watching the charts for the last 5 months....if you have not, please get out of the markets and go to cash, gold, cd's or bond funds, at least for the next 12-24 months.

Capital preservation...not appreciation is the humble move and I think we have to position ourselves now.

To be defensive we can buy inverse etf's in our personal accounts and goto cash in the 401k's.

Please do your own research and make sure you know the risk...what you were taught by main stream financial resources...no longer exist.


Please take action,

humble golfer
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,538
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:45pm Aug 25, 2010 8:45pm
Hi everyone,

I've followed this thread off and on for about 2 years, and never quite got the hang of trading forex, so I've never gotten past that stage of "just using a demo account, and seeing what works/makes sense to me."

Recently, I've come back to this thread and really tried to follow along and it all makes sense, but I think I still just have too many trendlines and I'm looking too closely at too many minor pin bars that I should be just passing by.

To that end, I looked around some pairs at the end of the day today, and found 6 pins that I'm not sure if they are worth looking at, and I need some advice from the more experience members.

AuCh - decent pin at what looks like the bottom of a box (from .91 to .945) - could be worth 400-500 pips

EuJ - small 2 day pin that is just past the bottom of a box (from 108.0 to 113) - again, worth about 500 pips, but do I trust the box?

GJ - another pin at the bottom of a box, but this bottom also matches a trendline that is just under the nose of the pin. The bad is that the pin is just under a support/resistance line i have at 132.5. it is a good pin, but don't like that it is caught between 2 trendlines... it could just be the start of a retrace and then break out of the box and go south...

GU - 2 day pin, that looks like it could be the end of a consolidation move as the pair continues up.

UCad - pin at the top of a box - This looks almost perfect - sharp move up, which probably won't be sustained in an established box: I could easily see this going down to 1.025 for an easy 300 pips..

UJ - a counter trend pin bar. the more i look at this one, the less I like. The overall trend has been down, for like 3 months, but this is a pin at a major resistance level for the pair (.85) - I can see this reversing soon, but I think I need to see it cross a trendline, rather then just the pinbar ...

Thanks in advance to everyone and especially Chris for all the work and pointers on this thread...

Don
  • #10,539
  • Aug 25, 2010 10:45pm Aug 25, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting golferfx
I am sure you have been watching the charts for the last 5 months....if you have not, please get out of the markets and go to cash, gold, cd's or bond funds, at least for the next 12-24 months.
A Biden warning Eh? I don't know, I like to keep my politics separate from my trading, so I'm hesitant to tangle with the floor runner of the tea party movement...

I think the bond bandwagon is a little late to get on (i'll attach a chart). With the 10yr @ 2.5% and futures near their peak, I'd wait for a breakout (if you believe the Japan scenario is coming true in the states). Gold perhaps as well but that's a whole different animal. If you do buy gold, don't buy it from Glenn Beck's guy -- they'll try to sell you those French Rooster coins...about 1/5 oz for $500 (for an immediate mark-to-market loss of 50%).

As for the stock market...I thought we played support/resistance... Doesn't that S&P pinbar look juicy right at 1,050? 1,000 might be safer, but 1050 has held up decently in the past year...(see chart #2). It almost looks like a box trade to me... Interesting to note the Russell 2k & Nasdaq 100 are all at key levels too.

But perhaps it's best to wait for GDP this Friday and perhaps non-farm payrolls next Friday...

I'm 100% flat at the moment...but looking to add some exposure at some point. A few ETFs I've got my eye on...XLE, KOL, EFA, XOP, XLV all saw bounces near support. Who knows we may break support and fall...But I don't necessarily share your fear of impending doom...

Charts...
10yr (what a killing there was to be made here...and plenty of chances to get in too...):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-08-25_10yr.png Size: 53 KB


S&P:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-08-25 S&P.png Size: 56 KB
  • #10,540
  • Aug 25, 2010 11:18pm Aug 25, 2010 11:18pm
Quoting infernodon
Hi everyone,

I've followed this thread off and on for about 2 years, and never quite got the hang of trading forex, so I've never gotten past that stage of "just using a demo account, and seeing what works/makes sense to me."...
Welcome Don....

The AUD CHF pin is a really good one. I happen to be short this pair at the moment, but have my stop at the top of the daily pinbar. (If I suddenly had a reason to be long - I don't want to be short.)

U/J is something I recommend waiting for a longer term signal. We might be forming a weekly pinbar. That might be good enough to get me interested......we will see.

USD/CAD is technical a pinbar, but it isn't protruding past the bar on the day before....however it is exactly where you want to see it. I would give that bar a "B" grade....

The Yen pairs all look similar, so you can pretty much take your pick of 'em.

Hope this helped...it's late and I am tired. If I wasn't clear enough, let me know.
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