Look at where price is at the moment, over 40 pips in the bag already! If you follow this advise the horizontal line on the RSI is the place to watch out for. If you miss the train, wait for the next set-up.
In forex trading it is important to have the larger time frame in mind.
How do you trade this for a short term trader looking for 40-100 pips per trade? Wait for the current HR candle to close if the next candle open above 1.53800, the retrace is confirmed. Follow the candle and take your pips.
Another way to trade this is, since the daily chart shows that the fall is still on, wait for the current reverse to end and follow the next bear candle. Either way you will get your pips. The advantage you have with H4 is that you are guaranteed enough...
It is 9.50 pm Eastern time, I believe US/CAD 4 hr is about ready for a short. Will you please confirm?
Also how many pips can I expect and will you please let me have your rules for a trade.
Thank you.
Ignored
I didn't see your post until now. However my time zone is GMT+1. I am watching USCAD too, but for a long term trade. For the other majors that I don't trade regularly, I look for set-ups in the daily chart. The daily is getting ripe for short, but the signal is not there yet. The next 2-4 candles will determine the direction. The two major resistance areas on the daily chart will give the signal to sell for an appreciable drop. I attach two charts to clearly illustrate the point.
As you rightly observed, H4 gave a sell signal yesterday which yielded about 100 pips. It remained valid for the next 16 hours or so, before turning back to the exact spot where the signal was given. You are begining to understand the technique of 4H. H4 is back in the sell zone at the time of writing, monitor it and pull the trigger and you will never get it wrong.
Few days ago long EUD/JPY at 108.20 when H4 RSI at 30 level with a SL at 105.96, however the SL was hit. Does this always happen?? I thought H4 RSI at 30 level is a very high probability trade??
The other question is when H4 RSI at 30 level, you said use M15 as entry. If M15 RSI level is at 50, shall i wait until it reaches 30 level or just place the long entry right away??
Few days ago long EUD/JPY at 108.20 when H4 RSI at 30 level with a SL at 105.96, however the SL was hit. Does this always happen?? I thought H4 RSI at 30 level is a very high probability trade??
The other question is when H4 RSI at 30 level, you said use M15 as entry. If M15 RSI level is at 50, shall i wait until it reaches 30 level or just place the long entry right away??
Thank you.
Ignored
LOL
Please post a chart on that specific trade so we can see what you are saying.
having said that I'm so glad I'm not using any indicators for my trading anymore ... phew is the word that comes to mind
As you rightly observed, H4 gave a sell signal yesterday which yielded about 100 pips. It remained valid for the next 16 hours or so, before turning back to the exact spot where the signal was given. You are begining to understand the technique of 4H. H4 is back in the sell zone at the time of writing, monitor it and pull the trigger and you will never get it wrong.
Hello Articulate,
Thank you for your encouraging words. I am beginning to feel more comfortable with the 4 hr trading and having sucess too - note only when I confirm 4 hr with 15 min as you said, thank you for this great tip.
I am currently short on the USD/CHF @ 1.0275 and expect a drop to the 1.0200 area.
I see some red lines on your chart - are these support and resistances?
Few days ago long EUD/JPY at 108.20 when H4 RSI at 30 level with a SL at 105.96, however the SL was hit. Does this always happen?? I thought H4 RSI at 30 level is a very high probability trade??
The other question is when H4 RSI at 30 level, you said use M15 as entry. If M15 RSI level is at 50, shall i wait until it reaches 30 level or just place the long entry right away??
Thank you.
Ignored
Let me make explain the strategy serially:
1. The fact that H4 RSI is on 30 level is not a signal to trade.
2. Wait for the next reversal candle on H4 Chart.
3.When you see the reversal candle on H4, go down to M15 to follow a reversal candle around 30 level
4. It is very risky to enter a trade whenever RSI level is at 50 on any timeframe. Majority of the time price actions usually slow down around that area or you experience reversal. Draw an horizontal line on 50 level in RSI or check most of my charts and you will see the picture clearer.
5. Don't enter a trade if the set-up is not right.
6. If you are using H4, use the recommended lot size relative to the size of your accoutn and avoid tight stop loss.
As you rightly observed, H4 gave a sell signal yesterday which yielded about 100 pips. It remained valid for the next 16 hours or so, before turning back to the exact spot where the signal was given. You are begining to understand the technique of 4H. H4 is back in the sell zone at the time of writing, monitor it and pull the trigger and you will never get it wrong.
Hello Articulate,
Thank you for your encouraging words. I am beginning to feel more comfortable with the 4 hr trading and having sucess too - note only when I confirm 4 hr with...
Ignored
Yes, the read lines are historical support and resistance areas. Sorry, I don't use Ichimoku charts. Price Action, R/S, RSI and trendlines are adequate for me. I prefer to keep it simple, too many indicators can be very confusing. If you are using Ichimoku charts, you can post it here, I will analyse and compare whether it is saying the same thing with my own charts. The most important is to belief in what your chart is telling you.
1. The fact that H4 RSI is on 30 level is not a signal to trade.
2. Wait for the next reversal candle on H4 Chart.
3.When you see the reversal candle on H4, go down to M15 to follow a reversal candle...
Ignored
Reversal candle on H4...can you please elaborate? As each candle will take 4 hours to complete...how to know whether it's a reversal candle?? When it's a reversal candle..the RSI may not be at 30 level...so how? Some candle might spike up before it turns to the other direction...also
Reversal candle on H4...can you please elaborate? As each candle will take 4 hours to complete...how to know whether it's a reversal candle?? When it's a reversal candle..the RSI may not be at 30 level...so how? Some candle might spike up before it turns to the other direction...also
Ignored
Look at the attached chart, the points marked in alphabets on RSI are the 1st class trade areas, because the signals to sell are given around 70 area and signals to buy around 30 level area.
Secondly you will observe that when H4 gives signals to sell around 70 level area there are usually about 4-5 or more bullish candles followed by a bearish (reversal) candle. For signal to buy 4-5 or more bearish candles followd by a bearish (reversal) candle.
Thirdly, the points marked in numbers 1-5 are second class signals and meant for experience traders. If you don't have enough experience avoid the 2nd class signal by any means. It usually works better when a price is moving in a perfect range. For example when GBPUSD trade in a range between 1.57030 and 1.55081 for most of last week.
We discussed this one two days ago, I believe the descent ( long term ) has begun as you stated at the time.
Ignored
The long term signal given on the daily was weak, because it came around 63 level. Ideal signals on any timeframe are the ones given above 70 That nothwithstanding the signal was strong enough as H4 signal.
The areas to watch out for (both trendline and resistance/support) are indicated on the two charts attached. Please note that the directions of the market are not usually clear on Mondays, what for Tuesday for clear signals.
Since I started using the horizontal red line on RSI, my trading have become easier. Draw it on all your charts. It gives you early warnings whenever a price move has lost steam or getting weak. This will assist you in taking a decision when to take profits earned from your careful analysis.
For my long term trading I use the following combinations:
a) Daily candle in conjunction with RSI. I will monitor the RSI for a clear direction. Once the direction is established I follow the direction. I allow that trade to float around for either 500 pips TP or until the price start to craw around the red horizontal line I have on my RSI chart before closing the trade.
b) Weekly Candle only. For the weekly candle, I open a trade at every month based on the direction of the weekly candly. I will set TP at 250 pips, where the TP is not reach, I wait till Friday to close the trade.
c) Monthly Candle only. For the monthly candle, I will wait 3 three days into a new month and place a trade based on the direction of the candle. I will set the TP at 500 pips, where the TP is not reach, I wait a day before the last trading date of the month to close the trade manually.
For the long term trades, I place only 5 trades in a month in addition to any floationg trade from my daily RSI Chart signal. When I started this method, it was very difficult to avoid the temptation to close trades already in profits or allow losing trades to float for weeks before turning around to profit. I must confess at the initial stage, I close most of these trades whenever I see 100 pips gain/loss in my live account, but with time I develop the discipline to stick to my plans.
The long term trades are usually in addition to my short and medium term trades based on signals from H4 RSI signal, major support and resistance, trend lines and price channels I mentioned in my earlier posts. For the short and medium term trades, I ensure that they are closed a daily basis at most within two days. Depending on my daily targets some of them are even closed within hours or on good days within minutes. I attach a daily chart which shows the trading opportunities for long time between January 2009 - June 2010 and the respect for the RSI 50 line which usually serve as guide as to whether to exit a trade or allow it run.
I will provide the summary of my method in my next post, post some of my results and thereafter come to the present and share my daily, weekly and long term trading plans on this tread for exchange of ideas.[/quote]
Do you still use RSI for your weekly and monthly trades?? What do you mean place a trade based on the direction of the candle? Can you please elaborate. How come the target profit for weekly is lower than daily?? I thought longer period should have bigger target profit!.
3 days into a new month..that means you will place a monthly position on 3rd of Sep. Can you share and give some example on this long term trade? Do you place your weekly on monday itself? or wait until the RSI hits 70 or 30 level?..Will appreciate very much. Thank you!
I want to start off by thanking Articulate for his tips on trading, I have learnt so much in the past week since I came to this thread and there are others contributing too so thank you for sharing.
I trade Ichomoku mainly which I am also trying to get better at. I would like to learn more about Support and Resistance trading because I know you all here trade this way.
I have noticed though that when I see a signal on Ichimoku, other traders not trading Ichimoku can also identify the signal most of the time, so I will post potential trades and you can comment or decide for yourself.
Let me use this opportunity to explain and make some clarifications in respect of my strategy.
Candle trades:
For the candle trades I use weekly and monthly candles and I have a micro account with Alpari which I use for these trades, because I am still experimenting. However, whenever a unique opportunity present and it aligns with my trade set in the charts, I replicate such trades on my main account. For the candle trades, I don't use RSI. I simply follow the candle, if the candle is bearish, I will go short and if the candle is bullish, I will go long. If you want to try this, open a separate micro account or even try it on a demo account over a period of time to properly understand it.
Long Term trades:
For long term trade, I follow the daily, weekly and monthly charts using RSI as a guide. The signals on these period are usually few, but of the best quality.
Monthly RSI gave a buy signal in March 2009 and over the next 4 months, price rose by about 3000 pips. The next signal was given in June 2010 and yield about 1800 pip. Using the monthly RSI, there is no signal to sell yet.
Weekly RSI gave six signals on the chart 3 buy and 3 sell as shown on the chart.
Daily RSI gave three signals so far, 1 buy and 2 sell as shown on the chart.
I attach herewith a daily, weekly and monthly charts for GBPUSD to illustrate the points. The place where the signals are given highlighted in blue boxes.
How do you interpret all these based on where we are today for your long term trade?
Monthly: The buy signal was given in June, if you miss it wait for another signal. Most importantly, don't trade in the middle of channel. You can get your trades on other timeframe.
Weekly: The weekly gave a buy in May and sell signal in August indicated by the spots highlighted. Price is currently on 50 points. Wait for another signal if you want to trade weekly long term.
Daily: The daily gave the sell signal in between August 2-4 and has currently crossed the 50 point mark down. The next signal you should watch out for is buy. If you miss the signal in August, wait for the next one.
For a trader who missed all these signals for medium term, trade, what does he do?
If you miss all this signals, the next option is to trade intra-day using H4. The horizontal line on the RSI is your guide.
For a trader who misses all of these signals, what does he do?
The best option is to stay out on the sideline and wait for the next signal, because that is the only way to be a successful trader.
I took time to clearly enumerate the steps to show that is important for a trader to be methodical in his approach. If a set-up is not right, ignore such trades. To give you more trading opportunities, you can monitor between 2-4 majors and only trade the one that presents the best opportunity at any point in time.
Do you still use RSI for your weekly and monthly trades?? What do you mean place a trade based on the direction of the candle? Can you please elaborate. How come the target profit for weekly is lower than daily?? I thought longer period should have bigger target profit!.
[b]3 days into a new month..that means you will place a monthly position on 3rd of Sep. Can you share and give some example on this long term trade? Do you place your weekly on monday itself? or wait until the RSI hits 70 or 30 level?..Will appreciate...
The cable has now formed another 170 pips flag on the daily. It has been trading within the range for the past 5 days. A break out of the curren box will determine the next direction. The three charts below give idea of the trading opportunities within this range. 1.54198 and 1.53274 are the major areas to watch out for a break upside and downside respectively. If you want to trade this wait for the next H4 candle.
The advantage of trading using the flag or box is that it gives you clearer picture of the range you are in it also give early signal of a breakout.
