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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #72,761
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:23am Aug 25, 2010 5:23am
Quoting pocrel
this eur/jpy chart has caught my eye, we have had a major breakout yesterday now we have price coming back up to test support on the daily time frame

now i am looking for an entry and the 1 hour looks interesting

let me know what you guys think
Hey porcel.


I like the way you think. You saw a strong consolidation area breakout and now looking for a pullback or retest of that consolidation or Lupport level turning into a Resistance level.

The previous bar lows on the higher time frames can give you a clue where this levels may be located.

Here's how I would veiw the Hourly chart but first starting with the Daily or Weekly time frames. See the difference of your hourly level and mine?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpydaily.jpg Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyhorly.jpg Size: 89 KB
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #72,762
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:33am Aug 25, 2010 5:33am
Quoting jarroo
Hey porcel.


I like the way you think. You saw a strong consolidation area breakout and now looking for a pullback or retest of that consolidation or Lupport level turning into a Resistance level.

The previous bar lows on the higher time frames can give you a clue where this levels may be located.

Here's how I would veiw the Hourly chart but first starting with the Daily or Weekly time frames. See the difference of your hourly level and mine?

sorry your second chart does nt seem to expand so can really make it out jarroo, my daily chart is the same as yours

i took the trade and took half my risk off already with my stop now 15 points from my entry so trade going lets hope this thing goes down
  • #72,763
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:37am Aug 25, 2010 5:37am
Quoting xmzhang
Wouldn't the ideal situation be a break first and then a retracement performed by the same bar, in that case we could enter at a much better price, knowing in advance that the PB has been validated ?

Yes, that would be the ideal, xmz. But I would have to have a lot of confidence in the left eye level . . meaning that the 81.50 (in this case) would have to prove to me that it is a strong Support level with some strength. And you can see by the chart that Price has tested that level many times with relative strength.

So a touch trade a that level would not be that risky. But I would rather have a nice Hourly or 4 hour PA at this left eye level (81.50) for more confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyaa.jpg Size: 105 KB
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #72,764
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:40am Aug 25, 2010 5:40am
Quoting jarroo
Yes, that would be the ideal, xmz. But I would have to have a lot of confidence in the left eye level . . meaning that the 81.50 (in this case) would have to prove to me that it is a strong Support level with some strength. And you can see by the chart that Price has tested that level many times with relative strength.

So a touch trade a that level would not be that risky. But I would rather have a nice Hourly or 4 hour PA at this left eye level (81.50) for more confirmation.
I couldn't agree morehttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Pipcrawler
  • #72,765
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:48am Aug 25, 2010 5:48am
Quoting pocrel
sorry your second chart does nt seem to expand so can really make it out jarroo, my daily chart is the same as yours

i took the trade and took half my risk off already with my stop now 15 points from my entry so trade going lets hope this thing goes down
Here . . try it now. I also include the 4 Hour.

Nice trade. . . .I was just showing you that there was a bigger story going on the higher time frame then just a hourly Sup/Res level.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyhorly.jpg Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjp4444.jpg Size: 103 KB
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #72,766
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:51am Aug 25, 2010 5:51am
I've a question about trademanagement, if you take a trade on a certain TF, lets say a 4H-TF, would you then be managing this trade on a lower TF, for instance on the 1H-TF or even on a 15m-TF ? I like to look for S/R flips of levels of interest which could stall price, these flips are more visible on these lower TF's.

May the force be with you.
Pipcrawler
  • #72,767
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:59am Aug 25, 2010 5:59am
Quoting xmzhang
I've a question about trademanagement, if you take a trade on a certain TF, lets say a 4H-TF, would you then be managing this trade on a lower TF, for instance on the 1H-TF or even on a 15m-TF ? I like to look for S/R flips of levels of interest which could stall price, these flips are more visible on these lower TF's.

May the force be with you.
I manage my setups on the time frame that the setup was presented. So a 4 Hour setup is managed on the 4 Hour; for targets, stop losses, PPZ levels, etc.

So looking at a lower time to manage a trade can only get confusing. I will, however, look at lower time frames to see how Price is behaving at the higher time frame setup levels.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #72,768
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:04am Aug 25, 2010 6:04am
Gotta go gang

later

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #72,769
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:07am Aug 25, 2010 6:07am
Reasonable PB on the 4H of the G-C, location is at an solid support base at the 15850, FTA RNB 15950. But looking at the previous enormous downtrend, would this be a typical "trying to catch a falling knife" type of trade ? Or could we just aim for a short ride towards the FTA and then close our position ?

May the force be with you.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FF.jpg Size: 189 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FF1.jpg Size: 232 KB
Pipcrawler
  • #72,770
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:30am Aug 25, 2010 6:30am
Quoting jarroo
Here . . try it now. I also include the 4 Hour.

Nice trade. . . .I was just showing you that there was a bigger story going on the higher time frame then just a hourly Sup/Res level.

cheers jim

i should have said at the start that my entry was based on the 1hour but the trade setup came from the daily support and resistence

but thanks for putting up the charts

eur/jpy now moving down nicely
  • #72,771
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:03am Aug 25, 2010 7:03am
Quoting Adilius07
LOL, Joel, I already have a gf I think if I buy a playstation she will leave me for sure lol, she already copes with "this trading thing"

In regards to MM. This is true that with 5% I can go broke much faster. Well with 2% this process of bankruptcy will be just 2 times slower and thus more painful.......
Maybe this will help you. A member named Chatzi made it and once posted it in this thread.

You only have to change the risk percentage and it will show you after how many trades you will suffer a 10%, 20% drawdown, .... or loose your account.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Drawdown.xls   20 KB | 433 downloads
  • #72,772
  • Edited 7:17am Aug 25, 2010 7:04am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting ppfx
Maybe this will help you. A member named Chatzi made it and once posted it in this thread.

You only have to change the risk percentage and it will show you after how many trades you will suffer a 10%, 20% drawdown, .... or loose your account.
Oh interesting! Thanks Ppfx, gonna check this right now.

LOL. I am not that dumb in real life but I just cannot understand what is this file, what is it wants to tell me, and why... ???

By default: Loosing rate 15% ( means I win 85% of time?) and with risk of 2% I will totally lose my account in 114 trades lol..
  • #72,773
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:24am Aug 25, 2010 7:24am
Quoting Adilius07
Oh interesting! Thanks Ppfx, gonna check this right now.

LOL. I am not that dumb in real life but I just cannot understand what is this file, what is it wants to tell me, and why... ???

By default: Loosing rate 15% ( means I win 85% of time?) and with risk of 2% I will totally lose my account in 114 trades lol..
ahh no the probability of loosing 30% of my account is highest... for both 2% and 5%.. something like this.. ok, just too complecated for my simple brain. Thanks.
  • #72,774
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:40am Aug 25, 2010 7:40am
Quoting spookie94
This one caught my eye on the daily. 4 touches at a BRN in 8 days suggests maybe this support is about to give?
You had in mind something like this?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu.png Size: 40 KB
  • #72,775
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:46am Aug 25, 2010 7:46am
Quoting Adilius07
Oh interesting! Thanks Ppfx, gonna check this right now.

LOL. I am not that dumb in real life but I just cannot understand what is this file, what is it wants to tell me, and why... ???

By default: Loosing rate 15% ( means I win 85% of time?) and with risk of 2% I will totally lose my account in 114 trades lol..
Something like that i think. Dont know exactly what the right side (losing rate) means. I know that like you said, with risk of 2% you will totally lose your account in 114 trades and with 5% risk you will lose it in 45 trades. Thas what i wanted to point out.
  • #72,776
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:48am Aug 25, 2010 7:48am
I just found this post by Raczekfx.
It is about trade&MM.

"That’s about 40.43 % profit for your account in 4 months or around 10.1 % /month"

I'm sure many newbies like me would benefit from it.
Although seems kinda "too perfect" for real life.But I have no experience yet to judge. Would be interesting to see hear any comments on this...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=18
  • #72,777
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:51am Aug 25, 2010 7:51am
Quoting ppfx
Something like that i think. Dont know exactly what the right side (losing rate) means. I know that like you said, with risk of 2% you will totally lose your account in 114 trades and with 5% risk you will lose it in 45 trades. Thas what i wanted to point out.
yes Ppfx thanks. Well if I were more sophisticated in math that file would tell me much more I guess lol.
But me being me, and I see it this way:

It takes 6 losses in a row with 5%MM to lose 30% of account
It takes 15 losses in a row with 2%MM to lose 30% of account

so for now 2% is of course better for me, because I will survive longer... but what if I could do this just in the opposite way.... you know 6 winners in a row with 5%MM ok... just dreams now. I need to practice, practice, practice....
  • #72,778
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:53am Aug 25, 2010 7:53am
Anyone watching gold?
  • #72,779
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:57am Aug 25, 2010 7:57am
Quoting cprao
Sorry. I did not get you.
Currenty FIB is drawn only to BUOB (Low to High).
Just using it to check for the middle range. I see now.
  • #72,780
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:08am Aug 25, 2010 8:08am
Quoting ppfx
You had in mind something like this?

Attachment
Exactly! Missed it though, still trying to figure out how to get an alarm to go to my cell phone using MT4 platform. If I just turn up the volume on my computer it scares my wife when it goes off at 3:00 am
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