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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,321
  • Aug 23, 2010 10:53am Aug 23, 2010 10:53am
Quoting rtiger29
Blackstone, these patterns seem to be really powerful. I just started really paying attention to them a few days ago, but they result in huge gains. you think there are enough of them on charts to only trade them? Do you only look for these patterns?
Have a look at the thread i mentioned on babypips .. there are plenty of these patterns on the 60 min charts (the way TMB draws them anyway). He uses the first swing after XA as B and the next swing as C. Check his video tutorial on youtube.
  • #4,322
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:25am Aug 23, 2010 11:25am
Quoting dan89
no problem ... the thread is called '30 pips a day keeps your money at bay'

Dan
i read some posts of his thread in other site, seems you were there too
thanks Dan

Quoting rtiger29
Blackstone, these patterns seem to be really powerful. I just started really paying attention to them a few days ago, but they result in huge gains. you think there are enough of them on charts to only trade them? Do you only look for these patterns?
Harmonic patterns are really powerful and i think it is profitable. but like other tools (technical analysis) needs experience, patience, money management ,knowledge ...
it worth to read more about it and trade in demo, or just look at simple ABCD in H1 and H4, it could surprise you, i really believe in ABCD,
chase the price in D zone (in ABCD AB=CD ) and market reaction.
good luck
  • #4,323
  • Aug 23, 2010 12:33pm Aug 23, 2010 12:33pm
http://i36.tinypic.com/10qjx3s.png

http://i35.tinypic.com/zxmbnp.png
  • #4,324
  • Aug 23, 2010 3:12pm Aug 23, 2010 3:12pm
Quoting BlackStone
i read some posts of his thread in other site, seems you were there too
thanks Dan


Harmonic patterns are really powerful and i think it is profitable. but like other tools (technical analysis) needs experience, patience, money management ,knowledge ...
it worth to read more about it and trade in demo, or just look at simple ABCD in H1 and H4, it could surprise you, i really believe in ABCD,
chase the price in D zone (in ABCD AB=CD ) and market reaction.
good luck
Hi blackstone, yeah ive been going through the thread on babypips, still trying to fully understand how to draw them correctly.

Do you use the very first swing high/low after XA as B and then the next swing high/low after B as C. ? ... I had a look at some of your harmonic trades in this thread and it seems you use the 'major' swings. TMB uses the very first swings.
  • #4,325
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:55pm Aug 23, 2010 11:55pm
Quoting dan89
Hi blackstone, yeah ive been going through the thread on babypips, still trying to fully understand how to draw them correctly.

Do you use the very first swing high/low after XA as B and then the next swing high/low after B as C. ? ... I had a look at some of your harmonic trades in this thread and it seems you use the 'major' swings. TMB uses the very first swings.
i did'nt read about the way he trade yet, but i think the major swings are much reliable. you should first choose your suit time frame, and then look for swings, some retracements in 1 min or 5 min aren't seen even in h1 or h4 but you could count on them on their own time frames and expect less pips than major ones.
  • #4,326
  • Aug 24, 2010 1:20am Aug 24, 2010 1:20am
Quoting dan89;
.
i trade ABCD (AB=CD) on GBPUSD this morning in real account. just look for reaction of market, i close one of my orders with 10 pips, maybe it comes down and decline more, but you could gain few and try not to be greedy, but if i found this pattern in h4 or h1 with other confirmation like S&R or divergence i would stay in market for much more pips.

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/th...xemqpefudj.jpg
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  • #4,327
  • Aug 24, 2010 2:33am Aug 24, 2010 2:33am
CADYEN240
high risk

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/ca...9tft0e76la.gif
  • #4,328
  • Edited 2:54am Aug 24, 2010 2:35am | Edited 2:54am
EURGBP240
Reciprocal AB=CD
Symmetry
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/2u...ehnzusuwvw.gif
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  • #4,329
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:26am Aug 24, 2010 3:26am
Quoting BlackStone
CADYEN240
high risk
first tp with 30 pips. just wanna show again power of ABCD
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/74...95bqz5xb01.gif
  • #4,330
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:22am Aug 24, 2010 9:22am
Quoting BlackStone
USDCAD240
AB=CD
symmetry
S&R
30 pips in first tp

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/ji...z6c5lga3wk.gif
  • #4,331
  • Aug 24, 2010 10:08am Aug 24, 2010 10:08am
impressive harmonic patterns blackstone . im reading up about harmonic patterns but i cant find out why they actually work. whats the idea behind these ABCD, Gartley etc patterns ?
  • #4,332
  • Aug 24, 2010 10:50am Aug 24, 2010 10:50am
Quoting dan89
impressive harmonic patterns blackstone . im reading up about harmonic patterns but i cant find out why they actually work. whats the idea behind these ABCD, Gartley etc patterns ?
maybe it could help you

"as the price begins to rise in the AB leg it catches the interest of those wanting to be in early. This could be early buying from large money sources
such as mutual funds, pensions, and so on. As the price continues to rise,
speculators may take note and climb on board, causing the price to rise
further into the AB leg. Toward the top of the AB leg, individual investors
(the general public) may start buying, not wanting to miss the move. There
may be some news items on the individual stock or market, further drawing
attention to the price rise. It is usually the case that this is toward the
end of the first leg. Once the first leg is complete, some profit taking occurs
and the price begins down. Those who bought near the top of this leg
are now at a loss and some fear begins to set in, which can increase the
selling.
As the price declines toward the Fibonacci retracement levels, those
who may have missed the first move up begin to step in to buy the dip.
Institutional investors may add to their positions, and speculators also may
step in to buy a higher low, providing price support. The selling subsides,
and the price finds support as more new buyers come into the stock or
market and the price begins to resume its rise (CD leg). At this point some
investors who rode out the loss from buying near the top of the AB leg
may sell as the price approaches their breakeven point on the retracements
back up from the BC leg. Some who missed getting out at a profit near the
top of the AB leg now take profits as the price is close to those levels again.
The CD leg now begins to repeat the cycle of buyers, and as the price
rises further those who realized they sold too soon may jump back in. A
new surge of buying (or selling) will then push the price through the B
point to complete the pattern at D."
(source :trade what you see )
  • #4,333
  • Aug 24, 2010 1:56pm Aug 24, 2010 1:56pm
thanks for the explanation blackstone. im going to look further into these patterns.
  • #4,334
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:58pm Aug 24, 2010 5:58pm
Can someone provide an indicator for MT4?


Thanks
  • #4,335
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:27pm Aug 24, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting Forexaccount
Can someone provide an indicator for MT4?


Thanks
Which indicator ?
  • #4,336
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:30pm Aug 24, 2010 7:30pm
U/Cad
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  • #4,337
  • Aug 25, 2010 9:47am Aug 25, 2010 9:47am
How to get a good entry?

I've mentioned a few times here that the best way to get a good entry is by using Pending Orders at the desired level obtained by simple technical analysis.

Here is an example of our Long entry on e/chf , we've got that level form a few days ago and waiting for the price to reach our Pending Buy Limit Order at 1.0250.
Note the quick bounce of price from that level. Even if the trade fails it doesn't matter as far as you get good RRR for each trade.
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  • #4,338
  • Aug 25, 2010 3:41pm Aug 25, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting shahab8b
How to get a good entry?

I've mentioned a few times here that the best way to get a good entry is by using Pending Orders at the desired level obtained by simple technical analysis.

Here is an example of our Long entry on e/chf , we've got that level form a few days ago and waiting for the price to reach our Pending Buy Limit Order at 1.0250.
Note the quick bounce of price from that level. Even if the trade fails it doesn't matter as far as you get good RRR for each trade.
nice job dude
i'm agree with you too. pending order make traders determine better entry , sl and tp and they could see the charts just for result.
  • #4,339
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:40pm Aug 25, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting shahab8b
How to get a good entry?

I've mentioned a few times here that the best way to get a good entry is by using Pending Orders at the desired level obtained by simple technical analysis.

Here is an example of our Long entry on e/chf , we've got that level form a few days ago and waiting for the price to reach our Pending Buy Limit Order at 1.0250.
Note the quick bounce of price from that level. Even if the trade fails it doesn't matter as far as you get good RRR for each trade.
What is the typical risk/reward ratio you look for in a trade ? Also how do you dertermine your stop losses ? do you just use previous swing high/lows ?
  • #4,340
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:07pm Aug 26, 2010 12:07pm
what do you guys think of this. USD/CHF ? A Pinbar has formed at the First resitance level.

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Edit: According to this: http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/C...f-Traders.aspx the last COT report shows large traders are currently net long on CHF. Does this mean we could see CHF drop further ?
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