Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

I need enlightening myself - something is afoot but I don't know what it is!

(12 inches you fool, Watson!)

Not sure abt the correlation between Yen and Chf apart from they are both viewed as safe haven currencies.

I think the correlation Strat is referring to is the normal inverse correlation between Usdchf and Eurusd, which, for the moment doesn't seem to be working as it should.

The other reason Chf and Yen are strong is the Swiss and Jap CB's have stopped intervening ftm.

The following news item explains the Yen strength and I guess some of it will apply to the Swissie.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1572700388&play=1

Hi Strat and every one,

Just to remind, i joined the group back in March. after that was completely out of touch with Forex, Internet and so many other things for some personal reason. Now, back again and staright to PAGE 1. Glad to see that thread is progressing and i hope that i will also learn from here.

Regards,

Khurram

Watching the EU chart....these are my observations,

Day before yesterday, worker broke a strong SR level at 1.2750 which is in conflucene with the 50, 38.2 FIB retracement of the move from June 07 to August 08 and also broke down the trend line drawn from June 07. I am now looking for the price to test this level again as Resistence and i will be short. However, if it brakes above that level i will be waiting and will not go long as 20 is just above it and also immediate weekly trend is down with monthly also shaping to be a bearish candle.

comments required as if i am thinking on the right lines or have lost my way during vacations

So far, so good. On my data, today's doji is a retest of that previous S which if it holds, now becomes R.

hmmmmm Strat i have spent some good time in identifying these SR levels on my chart and during that exercise i also filtered some lines as well. i am a bit confused now because if i draw all the SR lines my chart will be full of horizontal lines may be every 50 to 60 pips and it will be difficult to see the price candles.

yes i have checked again and the level you are referring was there on my data which i filtered.

need ur help....................

Khurram

The help you need is spending THOUSANDS of hours studying and practicing on THOUSANDS of charts.

There is NO SHORTCUT!

Euro back top the line in the sand. What will it do?

If one had taken the bottom of the weekly BEEB this would bring one back to zero or maybe another chance to get in? we'll see.

Swissie has a BEEB if it closes around here. I will be sleeping....

Usdx at a point where it has two fibos a wee resistance and dealing with the 50. Weekly was a nice bullish candle. And we have a shs pattern upside down. Interesting hey!

Greetings.

If by sma you are referring to simple moving average, you may have missed noticing that Strat now advocates the use of exponential MAs for both the long and shorter moving averages.

Cheers, Roger

must have missed that post.
terribly sorry will get it changed
and thanks for the headsup

GBPCHF Short Trade

On 18 August my analysis of GBPCHF was positive for a short trade. All the time frames were in sync. Everything pointed to a very bearish scenario.

The least positive aspect was that because the setup bar was very long, the risk was excessive at 257 pips, but by trading very small positions (3+2 microlots) I considered this to be acceptable.

I placed an order on 20 August which was filled, and at the close I was in a small loss. The Asian bar moved a little further into loss, and when Monday trading started in earnest the loss began to mount.

I considered my options, and decided that rather than exiting the trade I would reduce my SL to the blue dashed line (1.6142). This was an arbitrary decision, without any sound basis.

Needless to say I was stopped out with a small loss; my only loss trade so far this month ( 3 others were winners).

I was still confident that my original analysis had been correct, and just put the adverse result down to the vagaries of FX trading.

Here is a list of my errors and failings:

1) I did not allow the trade to play out according to the plan.
2) I watched the trade closely, like a day trader.
3) I allowed the demons/little people to take control, fear was in play big time.
4) I lacked the necessary patience to allow the trade to develop.

Had I allowed my original SL (dotted red line at 1.6291) to stand, and the trade to run its course, my TP1 (dotted red line at 1.5932) would have been hit and now I would be in a free trade (SL at BE) on the second position.

Let this be a lesson to those who doubt the importance of the demons/little people in the head.

If you have ever thought that you have your psychological demons under control, you are probably wrong.

If you have ever thought that Strat exaggerates the importance of psychological factors in successful trading, you are definitely wrong.

I hope my confessions help, Roger

Hi Roger,

Thanks for this reaily-checking post, indeed it is very true what you said.

It also happened to me today, closed my NZDUSD short position at ~BE just after I woke up and saw the current daily bar pierced 0.7000 and was rejected. The analysis is not important, what is important is that the current bar isn't finished. I might be right to have closed the trade early, or I might be wrong. Market will pick up one of the two, I'm sure .

I find it extremly hard to manage trades by reading the market, I have a lot of second thoughts like what if I close to early, what if I don't tighten my SL and instead of a small loss I'll take a full loss? etc... For this reason I think that for some people, like myself, the discretionary aspect of trade management it is best to be reduced in favor of a more mechanical management.

For over 4 months now I am managing my trades in a fully mechanical way and I'm doing better than before, this month I allowed myself a bit of discretion, especially on stop tightening, but again I found that I have to fight with second thoughts and a lot of "what if..." questions. This is the life of the discretionary trader and probabily after years of practicing the same thing (Strat's method) the little men will slowly come under control. I just like it better to manage my trades in a more mechanic way and it looks like is working for me. Just a thought....

Cheers,
-soso

oops duplicate post - sorry

Hey Strat

Still working my way through the thread and just wanted to recognise this particular gem of a post (2801) - really inspired interpretations of TL and PASR around them.

This was of particular interest to me as I have often played and messed up TL breaks and bounces at lower timeframes (not that I do that anymore), but now I can see WHY!

Great post - and back to the reading.

Graeme

Dear Soso,

I relate to your concern regarding this pair since I also chose to take the 23/08 SS and admitably had a hard time fighting demons, gremlins etc myself over the last days.

NZDUSD encountered difficulty cutting through the 0.70 area due to
1) Worker S
2) 61.8 fib ret
The fact that the SS was not on a Swing high did not facilitate the case either.

However, what kept me going in this trade was absence of Price Action suggesting trend reversal.
Honesty I am not trying to brag or anything, since I have been victim of bad psychology on numerous occasions.
My words only aim in reinforcing recently posted comments (No1Optimist) and Strat's countless declarations that 95% of this business is psychology.

R.

Well done Rubens!

The fact that I exited while the bar didn't finish bears no excuse for me. It is mentioned in my journal too now for future review. Glad it wasn't a loser though .

Hello Rubens, if you are trying to follow Strat's PASR methodology you need to know that the bar you were referring to was not a shooting star.

It was the shape of a SS, but did not qualify because a SS must form a swing high at the top of a series of up trending candles.

The bar you are referring to was in a series of down trending bars.

Seems that you made a lucky trade this time.

Cheers, Roger

Hello No1Optimist,

If can read correctly Strat's "methodology", as shown through chart examples, takes advantage of such candles.

SS may not be the correct name to refer to such candle, but job done.

Reminder: posts #9022, #8934

R.