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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #72,601
  • Aug 24, 2010 2:26am Aug 24, 2010 2:26am
Quoting ghous
Hey there,

Did you go through the videos on the guest side of the James16 PF?

We have some great introductory videos from the big guys there:

Take a look, and let us know if they weren't sufficient enough

videos

g.
Hey Everyone,

I went through all the James16 Guest videos about three weeks ago, and they were extremely beneficial. I can only imagine the gems available in the PF. I've been demoing based on them since then, and slowing going through this thread (on page 80 right now). I've only traded PB's thus far, and maybe one dblhc. With these two sources, I've grown a demo account by 20% over the past two weeks. Never had a losing trade yet. I set 30 pip target area at which I close half my position and move my stop to BE, and let the rest ride.

I find that I'm able to move my stop to BE sometime in the early morning (EST). I head to bed, wake up in the morning and check my trade. Usually the remaining half position has moved up quite well. However, and I'm not sure if it's the pairs I've traded thus far, but if I leave that position as is, by the end of the day I get stopped out at break even. So most times I'm in the habit of just taking my profit and running. I know this doesn't keep my in the trade for the long term to ride larger profits, but I'm happy with what I have for now.

Key example is the PB on the Kiwi yesterday. I entered on the retrace (should have waited for it to hit the level of the first eye). It moved into profit, closed half my position and went to bed. Woke up to see my other half position was up double from the profit I made from my first. These situations just seem to bounce back on me, if I smile, decide to let it ride and head back to bed.

Anyways demoing has been great. Learning a lot that you can't see from simply looking at the history of the PB's on different currency pairs. Can't wait to go live with it, and if money permits join the PF.

Cheers,

Synergy
  • #72,602
  • Aug 24, 2010 2:45am Aug 24, 2010 2:45am
Watch out lads if you are short JPY pairs.....rumours of a press conference from the Finance Minister
  • #72,603
  • Aug 24, 2010 2:54am Aug 24, 2010 2:54am
Quoting dfumagalli
Still in learning mode: I was looking at this interesting graph. Dear Wise Gurus, let's debug my brain.

What I see "at skin feeling" is half of an head and shoulders formation, expecially since 1.0556 there's a fibo retracement and a long time resistance.

I suppose I still have to check whether the next bars are bullish or bearish, because in the end the market goes where it wants, no way my "head and shoulders" is a set in stone truth, that would be presumptuous of me and would also automatically lock me out of 50% of the possible outcomes....

These PPZ are just areas to watch out for PA, they are no way carved in stone. As for the RR ratio, that is totally up to the individual and indeed their equity.

I saw the H&S and if we look at the projection from the neckline, that area at the PPZ is roughly where we may reasonable expect this up trend to falter or at least show us a clear continuation or reversal PA.

There is really no point in thinking about RR ratios as we do not yet have any PA.

If we start thinking about RR ratio's and scenarios at this stage, it can blind us from what is really going on.
  • #72,604
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:04am Aug 24, 2010 3:04am
Stopped
Don't give up
  • #72,605
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:12am Aug 24, 2010 3:12am
stop to BE.

Doesn't get any simpler

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #72,606
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:26am Aug 24, 2010 3:26am
Nice set up here, Retrace capped at 50% and rejects 61%.
BEOB which could be arguesd in Engulfing to capping a rally.
8920 possible Traffic but Target 8880 and below. tHis is in the past but would appreciate comments
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  • #72,607
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:31am Aug 24, 2010 3:31am
Quoting Chelski
Nice set up here, Retrace capped at 50% and rejects 61%.
BEOB which could be arguesd in Engulfing to capping a rally.
8920 possible Traffic but Target 8880 and below. tHis is in the past but would appreciate comments

What setup are you referring to?

I don't see any PA setup there.

EDIT: Actually maybe, that BEOB is passable as there are only 2 pips difference.

Wonder what Ghous thinks about this?
  • #72,608
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:34am Aug 24, 2010 3:34am
Quoting Pinbar
What setup are you referring to?

I don't see any PA setup there.
The BEOB under the arrow, would you not have taken this trade?
  • #72,609
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:35am Aug 24, 2010 3:35am
Quoting geomink
Stopped
Hey G,

You were trading into a swing high and obviously the 9000 round number and the adjoining price pivot zone which price bounced off.

Adilius' post from yesterday just popped back into my mind as I type this post. "Good looking pins will normally always hit their FTAs" - this one wasn't an exception.

It takes time to understand the potential of a particularly shaped PA bar at a particular location with a particular degree of space available for the trade to breathe in. with this understanding come the right trade management decisions.

Hang in there Geo, scrap this one for the lessons and move on

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #72,610
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:36am Aug 24, 2010 3:36am
Quoting Chelski
The BEOB under the arrow, would you not have taken this trade?

Personally, I would not have taken it.


Let's see what Ghous thinks about the 2 pip difference in the low.
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  • #72,611
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:44am Aug 24, 2010 3:44am
Quoting Pinbar
Personally, I would not have taken it.


Let's see what Ghous thinks about the 2 pip difference in the low.
i just noticed the low doesn't take out the previous!(glasses soon!) It does howeve engulf.
  • #72,612
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:45am Aug 24, 2010 3:45am
Quoting dfumagalli
Still in learning mode: I was looking at this interesting graph. Dear Wise Gurus, let's debug my brain.

What I see "at skin feeling" is half of an head and shoulders formation, expecially since 1.0556 there's a fibo retracement and a long time resistance.

I suppose I still have to check whether the next bars are bullish or bearish, because in the end the market goes where it wants, no way my "head and shoulders" is a set in stone truth, that would be presumptuous of me and would also automatically lock me out of 50% of the possible outcomes....
I suppose I still have to check whether the next bars are bullish or bearish, because in the end the market goes where it wants, no way my "head and shoulders" is a set in stone truth, that would be presumptuous of me and would also automatically lock me out of 50% of the possible outcomes.

The right way to go about it for sure. Blinding yourself with a bias is not what you want to be doing.

If I spot a strong bullish reaction (I know, it's unlikely), I wait for a retracement over that 1.0556 line, put a SL 15 pips below it (10 pips would be too close to round number 1.0550, which could be tested) and therefore I must also see 15 * 2 (or *3, *4...) possible take profit target.
This take profit looks possible at big round number 1.0600. I'll put a limit or stop buy order at 1.0562 (is it enough room to weed off the noise?). If I set a take profit at a worst case scenario of 1.0595 (to be sure it'll be tagged) it's 15 pips risk vs 33 pips gain. That would mean that I am ok taking that trade.

Ok it seems you're in some mood to blind trade at the 1.0550, that is you want to be placing an entry at a retrace of this level without actually waiting for PA. Not a wise thing to do. Since it's early days for in your J16 learning you are recommended to wait for PA bars at good locations (just like I said in that video).

Secondly you are completely mistaken on the R:R thing. Warren Buffet suggests: "Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" it has nothing to do with how much you are risking versus how much you are getting in return. Ask yourself this: Would you be willing to take a trade that offers 5 times the initial risk but has a lesser probability/chance of making it to 5R over another trade that offers only 0.5 times the money you risk but has a very high chance of making it to 0.5R?

hence a 15 pip stop for a 33 pip TP should never be the driving force behind your trade decisions. Obviously a good R:R is always sweet but like I said it is "probability" that matter more.

***------***

Just a few points I wanted to clarify for you D

g.
I believe . . .
  • #72,613
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:45am Aug 24, 2010 3:45am
Ghous....Is the 2 pip margin valid in a BEOB or does it invalidate this bar.
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  • #72,614
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:47am Aug 24, 2010 3:47am
Quoting Chelski
i just noticed the low doesn't take out the previous!(glasses soon!) It does howeve engulf.

No, it does not engulf....Engulf means to totally cover the previous bar.
  • #72,615
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:48am Aug 24, 2010 3:48am
Quoting Pinbar
No, it does not engulf....Engulf means to totally cover the previous bar.
I have it by 1 pip!
  • #72,616
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:52am Aug 24, 2010 3:52am
one hour pb forming. any takers?
  • #72,617
  • Edited 4:03am Aug 24, 2010 3:53am | Edited 4:03am
Quoting Chelski
I have it by 1 pip!

Use the hair tool and read the information about that bar.

It worked out but as I said before, there is only 10 pips to the RN and a clear former support area.

I would have passed on this for sure, especially as the bar is not that big.
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  • #72,618
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:57am Aug 24, 2010 3:57am
Quoting ghous
stop to BE.

Doesn't get any simpler

g.
Wow, nice pick. How many pips were your initial stop loss sir?
  • #72,619
  • Aug 24, 2010 4:01am Aug 24, 2010 4:01am
Quoting Pinbar
Use the hair tool and read the information about that bar.

It worked out but as I said before, there is only 10 pips to the N and a clear former support area.

I would have passed on this for sure, especially as the bar is not that big.
Yeah, tight, they look better when they have worked out, hence why i courted opinion post trade. Thanks for your thoughts.
  • #72,620
  • Aug 24, 2010 4:03am Aug 24, 2010 4:03am
Quoting rafael
one hour pb forming. any takers?
Not a bad one, since it would be off a round number. There should be few pips, but I think its very risky. The trend is so strongly down. Quickly moving to breakeven should be considered if this one is taken.
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