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Are the best systems also the systems that fail most spectacularly?

  • #41
  • Sep 3, 2009 11:12pm Sep 3, 2009 11:12pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Well said, MACDoug....
FX-Petra,

Nicely stated and well thought out response. I agree with almost everything you stated, except "It is a sad flaw". I think it isn't a flaw at all, but a gift. Unfortunately, many people don't see mistakes as an opportunity to try something different, to look for another way to try/do something.

Personally, I don't think "blackboxes" are the way to go, but if someone keeps working at it and finds a system that works, then more power to them.

joey
  • #42
  • Edited 12:42am Sep 4, 2009 12:27am | Edited 12:42am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
absolute b.s, I challenge you to provide evidence of a single case of this occurring
Rentec?

edit: (please note that I meant Medallion, not the public funds)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aq33M3X795vQ
  • #43
  • Sep 4, 2009 12:51am Sep 4, 2009 12:51am
Interesting article. I see you are making headway on your own blackbox of sorts. Well done on your progress so far!
  • #44
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:01am Sep 4, 2009 2:01am
Quoting clockwork71
I don't think you are taking a short cut, I think you are looking for something to take the hardest part of trading out of the equation - you. Congrats on your algo. If you are getting results, stop demoing and start trading. Simple as that.

As far as catching you, I am already profitable. And trading live. So it's the other way around.

Good luck,

Chris
When I said that I was referring to the other people working balck-box systems. My "competitors" or "peers" if you will.
  • #45
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:52am Sep 4, 2009 2:52am
Guys Im sitting in work here and I have my system running at home on 12 currency pairs (since last night) and it hasn't made a single trade so far. This is normal since it sometimes goes for days without placing any trades then places lots in a short period.

Its frustrating too. I can't get it to work with the backtester properly and my target is to do that over the weekend so I can verify my results and for the sake of my sanity see that I didn't miscalculate the success of the system.

I guess you can understand how I feel since the system is producting 2000 pips a month in history on pretty much any year, any currency pair, any spread, with absolutely no tweaking. Seems to good to be true to me aswell ...
  • #46
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:30am Sep 4, 2009 11:30am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
absolute b.s, I challenge you to provide evidence of a single case of this occurring
Normally I won't respond to such an idiotic post, but I hate it when people post bullshit. Try Googling 'D.E. Shaw', 'Ed. Thorp' or 'Automated Trading' (first hit), have I provided enough examples for you to pull your head out of your ass yet?
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #47
  • Sep 4, 2009 4:13pm Sep 4, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting Craig
Normally I won't respond to such an idiotic post, but I hate it when people post bullshit. Try Googling 'D.E. Shaw', 'Ed. Thorp' or 'Automated Trading' (first hit), have I provided enough examples for you to pull your head out of your ass yet?
One could also just watch a CME future for a couple of minutes, realize that most of the action on L2 is done by (rather sophisticated) automated market making engines and then wonder why someone would be running these systems...
  • #48
  • Sep 4, 2009 4:33pm Sep 4, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting daytrading
Leon,

The past has shown that 'extreme money generating models' like the one based on the Black & Scholes option formula used by Long Term Capital Management and the more recent CDO based models also rely on extreme leverage and market exposure.

Now, these 'systems' have as a basis a very sophisticated construction that in the ideal environment generate out of proportion (high) returns in a symbiotic fashion, i.e many people profit at once from being involved in the ladder of transactions (in the CDO market, the mortgage industry as well as...
Hi Max

Sorry I took so long to respond, I forgot I had made this post.

But is this not the same thing as only taking longs in an uptrend? Once the uptrend ended then so did the profits. LTCM etc were basically just using a curve fit.

I will have to read up on exactly what happened, I would have thought there would be sign's for them to stop what they were doing before things turned bad.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #49
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:36am Aug 19, 2010 1:36am
Quoting FrinkFX
Just like to throw this question out there to more experienced Forex traders.

The reason is because I'm working on my own automated forex trading sytem written in C++, Ive tested it on 2009 so far and it produced 10000 pips, testing it on 2008 at the moment and so far its at about 11,000 pips. This is without any "filtering" of any kind.

My system has lots of losing trades too, and the progress is very slow and it hovers around certain balances for months. I've always been skeptical when I read about these bots that claim to have no losing...
No
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #50
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:52am Aug 19, 2010 1:52am
The point is, that all these bots are based on technical analysis and are just the automated combination of technical tools. No more than that. They can't think and mull over the situation on the market. And it's well-known, that even the greatest technical analysis can be ruined in a second by some unpredicted news. So, these machines need to be at least monitored. It's auite dangerous to let them rule your money.
  • #51
  • Aug 21, 2010 8:08am Aug 21, 2010 8:08am
Quoting FrinkFX
Hopefully then I'll get some respect from all the non-technical traders who seem to hog all the respect.
I think this is a fundamental flaw in human logic, everybody seems to asume that this "respect" is something physical, something like sustenance, something like water, something like a wall to contain warm air in the winter, its not. its as fleeting as these things called "happiness", "truth", or "money", if you find it you realise you dont really want it. Read Lukes Rhineheart "The diceplayer" for more about this subject.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #52
  • Jun 17, 2011 12:45pm Jun 17, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
there are market participants with literally billions of dollars at their disposal for research and developement into auto trading
name one.
  • #53
  • Jun 17, 2011 3:16pm Jun 17, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting J. Halprid
The point is, that all these bots are based on technical analysis and are just the automated combination of technical tools. No more than that. They can't think and mull over the situation on the market. And it's well-known, that even the greatest technical analysis can be ruined in a second by some unpredicted news. So, these machines need to be at least monitored. It's auite dangerous to let them rule your money.
technical analysis IS what it is all about.

there is no situation on the market, as you call it, to mull over.

news does not directly drive the charts.

news causes traders to place trades, the result of which is that currency balances change and this causes the charts to move.

most trading bots are built by amateurs and this is why they fail.

happy trading,

zero/.

Inserted Video
  • #54
  • Jan 13, 2014 3:42pm Jan 13, 2014 3:42pm
Then it would not be a best system IMO............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #55
  • Jan 13, 2014 4:20pm Jan 13, 2014 4:20pm
No matter how a good a trading system is, there is still room for flaw and it is this flaw that leads to to spectacular loss sometimes. Also you cannot divorce emotions and feelings from tradings. At times the system could be good, but the person trading it matters most.
To become a better trader, think discipline.
  • #56
  • Last Post: Jan 13, 2014 4:30pm Jan 13, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting forexalien
Then it would not be a best system IMO............
That seems fairly reasonable .

(thread may go back into hibernation now. RIP)
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
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