Backing Trades Thru Charts

eurjpy worth some pips on that lower S line

EUR/NZD It might break this time




Have a nice weekend everybody!!!

looks strong .............

The gray line gave resistance for now.
Possibly it will be broken to test the green LTL at the 50% fib level.
Then a retest of the neckline where i will short with target 1.10.
I see some confluince at the circle this is where a retest may occur from below the 50% fib but maybe it means nothing..

Yeah, exactly what I'm looking at for next week.Nice points of confluence.
I'm currently holding a short trade on the EURJPY on my larger account. I took the trade with an initial tight stoploss of 33 pips. Now at BE.
Chart Below.

USD/JPY Judging by the norrow range, I expect a break this coming week.

GBP/CHF

AUD/USD There is a Beautiful H4 pin bar but neck line may not hold next time.

Daily and weekly candles show spinning top. This is usually a bearish sign in a falling market.

However there is a powerful Monthly tweezer at current low and a fair amount of regular bullish divergence on the H4 and the Monthly.

Its enough to make me think there is going to be some kind of attempt to rally back to 110.02, where I seem to find critical resistance. This is a 50% level between the 23.6 and 30.9 fibos of the local downmove.

In order for this bottom to hold any kind of shape it needs to stay above current low 108.23. A solid break below here should send into the high 106's. Historical support at 106.80.

I basically think selling rallies in the area of 109.76 is a good idea for a sensible RR trade, but no idea if rally will get that far. See how it plays out in the coming week.

GBP/CAD Mixed Signals

Hey TLC,

I took that chfjpy short for fun, 1/4% risk. I find it a bit risky to suggest that when price reaches x, y pattern will be complete, since I've seen a lot of folks lose money that way, but I like the short down to 77 for other reasons, so what the hell.

Should that happen, it will be fun to see if it can go the whole distance. Plenty of time to add positions if it plays nice too.

Gluck

Yes, it will be nice to see the validation line to break, I might find some use for those 1500 pips!!! BTW I'm short too.

Also, from a correlated perspective, others here have been suggesting the usdjpy may be putting in a mid-to-long-term bottom, which the wedge supports, how do you think a sustained upside move in the usdjpy will affect the chfjpy?

As you said this before, I try to see each pair independently. They might have some correlation in smaller TF's but keeping the pace in a weekly basis is a different story.

Take a look at this table showing no correlation on daily and weekly.

I bumped the number of periods to 100 and got equally positive results.

And bookmarked the site. Thanks TLC

Just looking a bit more deeply into EU and EJ on the H4.

Lots going on in the charts-this is a look from the perspective of my trading system. All it does is take the first 18 bars of the week and projects the average trajectory in the form of the slanted middle red line, which I've outlined in white.

The bottom slanted green line is 50% of the distance of the weekly ATR set in accordance with red line. And the top blue line is other 50%. When price hits the outer green or blue lines its cautionary.

This just expresses to me the potential for a bull to form on the H4 in each of these pairs, since you also have bullish divergence signals coinciding.

I'm bearish on both of these pairs-I think they are going to hit lower levels. I just hate to underestimate the potential of the H4. And one thing EJ and EU have in common is that they have yet to make a proper retrace to the 38.2.

Also both pairs have this strong preliminary resistance line in place short of a complete retrace.

Anyway I just wanted to revise my earlier comments on the EJ to the extent that I don't want to advise anyone to trade against a bull that might be gathering strength in order to advance a bit higher and hit its retrace mark. Its impossible to know how the bull will develop before hand, or if it will develop at all. H4 shows some warning signs, is all.

Hello all,

I have been asked by a member that frequents this thread if I would like to submit more of my musings and charts in order to contribute. I am happy to receive such a request, but note that this thread is primarily interested in patterns and TLs.

For those that do not know, I am more a Guppy profile and Fibonacci trader, and spend most of my time over on Stocky’s thread; where I also enjoy taking literary shots at politicians and monetary stewards. I am not commercial, just small-time retail.

For those that are interested in how I trade, in the first instance, I would direct you to this post, in order to give you an impression of what I look for.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=323

For those that are interest in my musings, there are many examples contained within Stocky’s thread, and I do try to finish off with charts.

I’m not sure what readers would like on TLC’s thread, and so will not replicate my last post from Stocky’s thread here, but give the link. I’ll replicate future postings here, and see how it goes.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=387

I like your charts. Nice and clean.

I think I'll learn a lot from your perspective. Welcome.

In today’s editorial, Andrew Lilico, chief economist at the think tank Policy Exchange , hints at an interest rate appreciation in the UK that could encounter 8%. This would support some of my previous ruminations upon how Sterling may become the monetary vehicle of choice for big money seeking good gains on short-term deposits. Further reading can be found here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...two-years.html

Of course, the concomitant repercussions of this for the majority of the population is a cruelly mixed bag of fortune. If you are a saver and mortgage free, your piggy bank will swell. If not, life will become more difficult than it is already as people, even with such low interest rates, struggle to keep control over what they currently have. An influx of capital, I fear, will primarily serve one industry; that of our financial sector… a sector that is estimated to account for 60%+ in terms of GDP, and 85%+ in terms of the UK service industries. On its own, this estimation is rather shocking, really, but it becomes more so when it is reported that in terms of people, those employed within the financial sector represent just 2% of the workforce. Figures that I have stumbled across indicate that 36% of these companies use tax avoidance schemes – sorry, I should be stating tax efficiency schemes, as is the parlance these days – or, pay nothing at all. A great article in the British press recently reported on the 100 companies that make up the FTSE; when asked to give figures on their tax returns, 97 did not answer. That is a luxury that big companies, being exempt from disclosure that you and me are not, enjoy.

To put some percentages on this. Large companies/big money produces approximately 49% of UK GDP, but pay approximately 10% of the country’s tax. You and me pay anything up 73% - IT, NIC and VAT. Doesn’t seem fair, does it? Add to this the increase in basic bank charges for us as of late – in spite of us effectively giving them the money to get themselves out of the mess that they created for us all, and not, unreasonably, wanting to see this money returned to us, as opposed to using it to carry on as if nothing had happened (bonuses and Bentleys) - and one can understand why there is no love lost between the financial sector and I.

Returning to potential interest rate increases in the UK. Put another way, if I am managing an investment fund and choosing instruments that give the safest short to mid-term returns, I am going to chase high interest, government-backed fiscal instruments – gilts spring to mind - as opposed to equity-based investment within a country that can longer manufacture products that the world can afford. Something within the region of 70% of all profits for companies listed on the FTSE 100 come from outside of the UK, so some equity-based investment may occur, but I doubt it will be in support of companies wishing to build manufacturing plants within the UK, but for a UK-listed company financing plant development outside of the UK. This effectively rules out a lot of the UK population profiting from such investment, as they cannot afford to hold equity. The UK just cannot manufacture anything in the high-volume produce market that can compete with the pricing of these same products that are made elsewhere – essentially, the developing nations.

I believe that we have entered a period of stagflation. I trust not the ‘official’ figures for unemployment – it is very interesting to see the constant redefining of what constitutes being termed employed - or economic growth, of which one can dissect many ways in order to reveal the complications within. I mean, how can the amount of businesses filing for bankruptcy increase, and yet the unemployment figure fall?

It will be interesting to see how the general UK population react to the 20% VAT rate that will be imposed in 2011, and even more interesting if, as the Institute of Economic Affairs urge, the UK Government via the Office for National Statistics, reveal that the true debt figure for the UK is somewhere nearer to £4.8 trillion mark, than the £816 billion (excluding bank bailouts) declared so far. These numbers mean little to many people, but it represents a frightening change in the order of magnitude. It is a revealing read:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...8trillion.html

…and gives a rather troubling appraisal of UK national debt not actually being 56% of GDP, up from the reported 48% last year, but more like 333%. Gulp…!

And then we have the hidden liabilities within banks when it comes to mortgage assets. It is a complicated affair that can be summed up with two words: off balance. Or one word: lying. Take your pick.

The recent celebrations of good news from higher retail sales and lower debt may yet prove to be a blip on a wider screen. Seasonality studies, and high-street sale reactions to a poor first 6 months of the year and then a good summer that pulls the consumers out, may play some part in these figures… of which, the reader may have appreciated, I take with a pinch of salt. And then, how many citizens, that do not, as we do, read the financial press and study the market, have believed the guff spouted by government and lazy media, and whipped out that credit card again in order to take advantage of the sale, or two for one deal?