What is a 'Good' percentage for winning trades? | Forex Factory

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What is a 'Good' percentage for winning trades?

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 20, 2010 9:18am Aug 20, 2010 9:18am
Not wishing to debate mm or letting winners run etc. My question is What % of winners vs losers do you define as good or very good?

I have just had a quick count for this month and have averaged about 6 trades per day and my win rate is 56%

It seems to be working for me, but can't really gauge what is good and what is only average.

What do you seasoned traders acheive?

GG
Now trading live
  • #2
  • Aug 20, 2010 9:20am Aug 20, 2010 9:20am
you can have a good trading system also with a 20% winning rate... it depends on the win/loss ratio
  • #3
  • Aug 20, 2010 9:21am Aug 20, 2010 9:21am
No one cares about winning percentages.
Even a caveman can hit 99% winning trades when he trades without stoploss.
To bad that 1% will kill you.

My percentage is way under 50% more ~35%.
  • #4
  • Aug 20, 2010 9:23am Aug 20, 2010 9:23am
okay - wrong question then
Now trading live
  • #5
  • Aug 20, 2010 9:41am Aug 20, 2010 9:41am
You're thinking way too much into it. When it come to trading, why is everyone suddenly a statistician?

Just trade and try your best to be profitable.
  • #6
  • Aug 20, 2010 10:28am Aug 20, 2010 10:28am
Quoting Jhig
You're thinking way too much into it. When it come to trading, why is everyone suddenly a statistician?

Just trade and try your best to be profitable.
Hi Jhig !

Well said
I trade what I see and never look left or right....
I just trade and thats it !

A former Salomon Brothers CEO once said that if you put a trader on
a truck he isn't able to drive....

Why because his only focus is on trading like the bonobos f....k
around all day....

Regards

bernhard
  • #7
  • Aug 20, 2010 10:40am Aug 20, 2010 10:40am
Quoting TJPLD
No one cares about winning percentages.
A side effect of a higher strike rate is the reduction in the probability of a given number of consecutive losers.

I cant be bothered doing the maths, but there's a pretty good chance of hitting, lets say for sake of argument 35 consecutive losers if your strike rate is only 15%, and almost no chance at all if your strike rate is 85%.

Its a bit misleading to say noone cares !
  • #8
  • Aug 20, 2010 11:00am Aug 20, 2010 11:00am
Over the long term (100s or 1000s of trades),
you want to concentrate on expectancy, profit factor, and drawdown.

Expectancy = (%wins x average win)-(%losses x average loss)

Profit factor = gross profits / gross losses
or
= (# wins x average win) / (# losses x average loss)

Unfortunately, win % is meaningless over the short term without considering how much you've won vs. how much you've lost, or the amount of risk you have taken.

I had 18 winning trades in a row (I scalp for small amounts) in August, but have a drawdown of 20% because of a couple bad days. My winning trade percentage is 61% this month. I suggest a site like www.Myfxbook.com to track your trading.

There are many profitable traders that only win 30-40% of the time, but their risk:reward is favorable.
Good Luck!
  • #9
  • Aug 20, 2010 11:16am Aug 20, 2010 11:16am
Winning percentage is not the key statistic to be concerned with IMO. The most important statistic is your average win vs your average loss. Ideally, you would want your average win to be substantially greater than your average loss by a factor of 2 or better. With that being said, there is not a trader in here, if they were to be honest, who wouldn't want to trade with a high winning percentage. A happy median would be a winning percentage north of 50%. If your winning percentage is too low, it could be an indication that something is fundamentally wrong with your trading strategy and you should correct it. This correction could lead to a substantial increase in profits.
  • #10
  • Edited 1:10pm Aug 20, 2010 11:33am | Edited 1:10pm
Profit in Forex can be defined in as many different ways as there are variations in a moving average indicator...

Our tendency as a modern right brained species is to classify, categorize and neatly package everything and everyone we come into contact with. Unfortunately, the markets react so quickly to things like news and trader sentiment, just to name a few, that we as traders are forced to become reactive in order to protect our meager profits. i.e. determine the recent market condition then play it as such until it changes and bites you. Yes, Forex 'bites' !

My trading style dictates that I need at least 70% winning trades to offset the loss from spreads in the sideways markets. Larger profits can be taken from trending markets because they offer an easier win ratio due to fewer stop outs...
  • #11
  • Aug 20, 2010 1:20pm Aug 20, 2010 1:20pm
For short term trading, something over 90%....

Just my opinion.
  • #12
  • Aug 20, 2010 1:30pm Aug 20, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting Troikaone1
Winning percentage is not the key statistic to be concerned with IMO. The most important statistic is your average win vs your average loss.
No, it's really not. Both are meaningless without the other. As Intu said, expectancy, profit factor etc are the important ones.

Everyone always harps on about 99% winning system will die on the 1% loss, the exact same is true for a system where wins are 1000 times the size of losses, you can just as easily fail.
  • #13
  • Aug 20, 2010 1:38pm Aug 20, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting TraderHotch
No, it's really not. Both are meaningless without the other. As Intu said, expectancy, profit factor etc are the important ones.
OK . I will study these stats and see if I can increase the P of my P&L even more.
  • #14
  • Aug 20, 2010 1:47pm Aug 20, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting TraderHotch
No, it's really not. Both are meaningless without the other. As Intu said, expectancy, profit factor etc are the important ones.

Everyone always harps on about 99% winning system will die on the 1% loss, the exact same is true for a system where wins are 1000 times the size of losses, you can just as easily fail.
Yep, it's all about overall picture, you can't take one statistic in isolation.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #15
  • Aug 20, 2010 1:50pm Aug 20, 2010 1:50pm
it's not a wrong question. i know exactly what you meant.

you meant - what is a good winning % assuming all trades are 1:1 risk reward ratio, over say a few hundred trades (enough trades for decent stats derivation).

guys, it's obvious this is what he meant, so stop beating around the bush.
  • #16
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:05pm Aug 20, 2010 2:05pm
The best measuring stick across the board which will include all traders great and small, is to see how long it takes you to double a relatively small account ($1500) 2 times. Once you do this, you can then go back and look at all your stats and come up with your own answer as to what is an appropriate winning percentage. If it takes two years to double a small account twice then something is wrong with your trading system. You will have to go back and redo the math. I'm not sure if anyone has used TIME as a variable in any of their calculations; but in my book it is the only thing that ultimately matters in the end.
  • #17
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:13pm Aug 20, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting Troikaone1
The best measuring stick across the board which will include all traders great and small, is to see how long it takes you to double a relatively small account ($1500) 2 times....
This forum just sucks balls now doesn't it? This must be one of the stupidest posts I've read here in a while.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #18
  • Edited 2:30pm Aug 20, 2010 2:17pm | Edited 2:30pm
Quoting Craig
This forum just sucks balls now doesn't it? This must be one of the stupidest posts I've read here in a while.
With all due respect Craig.....I'm not gonna bash you because it's not the right thing to do. I didn't become a successful trader until I was able to accomplish this feat in a meticulous and purposeful manner. You gotta go thru the fire to get to the other side. Please refrain from any insults....we should all be supportive of one another......Thanks much!!!!

Don't get me wrong....I love stats....I think they have their place....but SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!! What I am suggesting is sort of like a reverse calculation. Try setting a dollar goal first and then go back and assess the stats required to accomplish that dollar goal. It is an excellent benchmark for any trader; especially a beginner trader.
  • #19
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:19pm Aug 20, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting Craig
This forum just sucks balls now doesn't it? This must be one of the stupidest posts I've read here in a while.
Yeah it does. Most of the time I come here just for amusement see the Jacko Thread. Better than watching crapy TV Shows.
Such comments are always good for a laugh.
  • #20
  • Aug 20, 2010 3:23pm Aug 20, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting TJPLD
Yeah it does. Most of the time I come here just for amusement see the Jacko Thread. Better than watching crapy TV Shows.
Such comments are always good for a laugh.
Actually, I must admit to following that thread as well, it's truly priceless.
It reminded me of watching the 'Jerry Springer' show, it always starts out all civil and polite, but you know it's only a matter of time until the chair throwing starts.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
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