AUD/USD

Hey - What if Labour wins ? Don't know - It appears to be a cliff-hanger - according to tonight's TV news in Australia it is being reported as a 50 / 50. I think its time to be conservative on positions and sizes before the US NY close. Hey you can always be aggressive on Monday - Aussie time - if you wish $$$

Can either party cause to affect a trend change in the AUD?

Labor to me is running an inflationary policy having minimum wages increased, a lot of stimulus funded public spending, with upwards effect on the AUD as assets prices are supported with stable un/empl and interest rates - if these remain within 0.5% of current levels, all good so far. Above this and the policy is going to hurt the credit market and unemployment more than current levels due to inflation.

Liberals are against increased public spending, and would appear to have an initial contractionary approach that might eventually flush out some private equity. The danger with this is that it goes offshore and Australia stagflates.

Greens will go with the population anyhow, and try to temper the excesses of either side.

Win to Labor - perhaps up, then down
Win to Liberal - perhaps down, then up

Looking at how the EUR and GBP recently reacted to the austerity announcements, I would guess an initial reaction to Liberal Gov't would be down until firm policies were announced.

In either case, demand for the AUD is still geared towards inflated local asset prices and global commodity demands.

A lower dollar always helps our trade balance so neither party can claim a trade surplus as a victory.

Hi - it seems like your argument sounds OK. I suppose that this is a variable probability time when a number of arguments sound reasonable. Your economic understanding seems to be ahead of mine - which I am making a deliberate effort to improve on since economic fundamentals provide the major trend of price movements but technical the actual. ..

The head and shoulders on the daily is looking really good.

The right shoulder is fully formed and it is just waiting for a deep drop to .8680 and then possibly on down to the .8350 area. It may be quite a ride.

JPY is making it back to 86 and China is doing ok. Both supportive of AUD.

Todays' L was right at the 100 and 45DMA convergence point and the lower BB.

This could retrace back to 9050, the 18dma before it lets go - or not

Crocodile tips Australian PM to win elections


According to Dirty Harry, the labor party will continue in charge. Watch out for the miners tax implication on the currency.

Today is Friday. There is no Asian trading tonight. I am a chartist. I don't speculate about future currency movement. I react.

TGIF! Have a nice weekend!

In the past, has the AUDUSD moved swiftly on the results of an election? And, how was the follow through?

GO LABOR GO!!!

looks like a hung parliament....aud should not perform well in the coming sessions...

hung parliament. sieg heil comrades. . hope you're doing well on your shorts.

Weekend is showing a drop of 90 pips and if nothing significant happens in the next hour and a bit will open with a gap of 90 pips south. Will do wonders for my open short trade. Quick way to make a profit.

Good luck!

Interbank quote currently is 0.8851

reckon au could be battered this week because of hung parliament. Any in here trade cable? remember that chain of events!

The hung parliament is what has drawn me to this pair and the fact that it seems like it respects s/r on h4 pretty well!

Where can you see the Interbank quote?

Be watchful of a trap here. A Liberal majority could be seen as strong for the Aussie, not weak. One of their election proposals was to abolish a mining tax. Info.....

www.forexlive.com

One way to follow prices on the weekend is by using the Streaming Rates chart at Fx Street.com

, Aug 23 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar fell one
percent on Monday after the inconclusive election delivered a
hung parliament.
In early Pacific trade the Aussie <AUD=D4> opened at $0.8840
from Friday's close at $0.8940