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Silent Service Method

  • #10,421
  • Aug 18, 2010 8:03am Aug 18, 2010 8:03am
Quoting clockwork71
Heating oil is definitely a seasonal market. The northeastern US relies on it much more than the rest of the country. As an example, I am in Ohio, and we use natural gas for most of our heating. As such, it really can come down to two things:

 

  1. Weather patterns in the NY/Mass/Conn/Vermont/NH/Maine region
  2. Inventories

If there is a lot of this stuff in inventory - it won't move as much as you would think. In this way, it behaves similar to nat gas.

However, they can and will decouple if there is a glut of one, and scarcity of...

I get it. When is the time to start watching this for a seasonal move? In other words when does it start getting cold in your part of the world?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,422
  • Aug 18, 2010 11:47am Aug 18, 2010 11:47am
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi All,

August certainly blows.

I haven't even opened my actual trading platform this week. Just watching and waiting.

I wish I had anything to add to the conversation.

Two trades I was interested in, both occurred during London, when I am asleep. I need to live in a different time-zone.
  • #10,423
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:10pm Aug 18, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
I get it. When is the time to start watching this for a seasonal move? In other words when does it start getting cold in your part of the world?

Well, it gets cold in November typically...but you will want to be in a little a head of that. I have to be honest - never traded the Nat Gas or Heating Oil markets.....I would think something like September?

I am sure if you have access to historical data, you should notice spikes about the same time of year?
  • #10,424
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:11pm Aug 18, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting Low
I haven't even opened my actual trading platform this week. Just watching and waiting.

I wish I had anything to add to the conversation.

Two trades I was interested in, both occurred during London, when I am asleep. I need to live in a different time-zone.

Low,

You could have come and power washed and scraped this house with me today? lol
  • #10,425
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:17pm Aug 18, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting clockwork71
I should quantify this with saying that I will be switching to a "running mode" in about 2 weeks......


Best of luck. If you make 7 big figures, I will be cheering you on. And feeling sick to my stomach. lol
It is doing its best to break me out at evens however I will stick with it. I like for a turn around almost spot on the 1.0265 level however I am also dreaming of 7 big figures LOL

In other news, Gold is either just completed a 3-drives to a top pattern on the 1hr chart or is on the 2nd drive of a 3-drives to a top pattern on the 4 hr. Looks like it should be capped at 1235 protected by the weekly pivot level.

I am not a gold bug and it very well may shoot for the stars here however I am chasing 1160 with the possibility of 1060 in extension. I think we need to see 79 on the DXY first before it starts the fall.

Wish me luck.
  • #10,426
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:31pm Aug 18, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting clockwork71
Well, it gets cold in November typically...but you will want to be in a little a head of that. I have to be honest - never traded the Nat Gas or Heating Oil markets.....I would think something like September?

I am sure if you have access to historical data, you should notice spikes about the same time of year?
Hmm... looking back I don't think you can use the season to guess anything. I think it's fair to say that demand will go up in winter and the supply will have a bearing but it seems to be very closely correlated to the price of crude oil and the seasonality thing seems to be a secondary issue.

In general it does seem that it follows s/r quite strongly and will trend reasonably predictably so I think I will just keep one half hearted eye on the fundamentals and concentrate more on waiting for a good clear signal at s/r.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,427
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:56pm Aug 18, 2010 2:56pm
Here you go arfer,

With commodities you want to watch the seasonal's and watch price action going into those time frames.

Heating oil generally bottoms in June, July and peaks around late September, October.

If you get an A+ set around the cycles...then push the go button.

Or you can load up on options and wait it out which is best imho.


good hunting,



golferfx
Attached Image
  • #10,428
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:22pm Aug 18, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Hmm... looking back I don't think you can use the season to guess anything. I think it's fair to say that demand will go up in winter and the supply will have a bearing but it seems to be very closely correlated to the price of crude oil and the seasonality thing seems to be a secondary issue.

In general it does seem that it follows s/r quite strongly and will trend reasonably predictably so I think I will just keep one half hearted eye on the fundamentals and concentrate more on waiting for a good clear signal at s/r.
I would recommend technicals above fundies either way......
  • #10,429
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:22pm Aug 18, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting golferfx
Here you go arfer,

With commodities you want to watch the seasonal's and watch price action going into those time frames.

Heating oil generally bottoms in June, July and peaks around late September, October.

If you get an A+ set around the cycles...then push the go button.

Or you can load up on options and wait it out which is best imho.


good hunting,



golferfx
Thanks Golfer......this post was extremely helpful mate.
  • #10,430
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:07pm Aug 18, 2010 6:07pm
You can use the types of systems that a lot of other traders use as well. For example, if you have a good set up, take a look at moving average crossovers as well. (I don't believe in them at all....but enough other traders do is the point.)

You need to find reasons for others to join you! That's the point. When you get a nice S/R set up, and it's at the 50% retrace....you are getting a set up, plus the 50% retrace, which a lot of traders buy on as a system in and of itself.

Stack the odds people.....

Here's a Pound/Israeli Shekel chart. (Was looking through my AVA charts, I can't trade this broker because of the CFDs and me being American....but noticed a good example of this and thought I would share it with you guys.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: poundshekel.png Size: 76 KB
  • #10,431
  • Aug 18, 2010 10:33pm Aug 18, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting golferfx
Here you go arfer,

With commodities you want to watch the seasonal's and watch price action going into those time frames.

Heating oil generally bottoms in June, July and peaks around late September, October.

If you get an A+ set around the cycles...then push the go button.

Or you can load up on options and wait it out which is best imho.


good hunting,



golferfx
Thanks, nice chart.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,432
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:33am Aug 19, 2010 7:33am
US Jobless claims comes in at 1/2 million. Listening to the people on tv be surprised. Odd.....I can't see why.

I still think we are in for some downside movement in the markets once the big boys come back. But.....gotta wait to see that my thesis is true.
  • #10,433
  • Aug 19, 2010 8:53am Aug 19, 2010 8:53am
Quoting clockwork71
US Jobless claims comes in at 1/2 million. Listening to the people on tv be surprised. Odd.....I can't see why.

I still think we are in for some downside movement in the markets once the big boys come back. But.....gotta wait to see that my thesis is true.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pom...l-those-shorts

Just my daily dose of 'realism' ;-]
Although these day, as my granddad used to say I "don't believe anything I hear and only half of what I see"

(tell me if you want me to stop posting external links in here)
Carpe Divitiae
  • #10,434
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:17am Aug 19, 2010 9:17am
Quoting fsiltd
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pom...l-those-shorts

Just my daily dose of 'realism' ;-]
Although these day, as my granddad used to say I "don't believe anything I hear and only half of what I see"

(tell me if you want me to stop posting external links in here)
I used to subscribe (via RSS) to zero-hedge, but a) they qualify to me as perma-bears and b) they border on the conspiracy theorists. They completely missed the march 2009 turn and if you had followed their advice, you probably would have been down 20-30% in 2009 as your shorts got run over by the bull market.

No doubt, they occaisionally get a few good nuggets of info and they are good at posting some interesting research reports from time to time, but I don't know...they have a market view (dare I say an agenda) and they harp on it regardless of what the market is saying.

I much prefer Barry Ritholtz's "Big Picture Blog" and the linkfest they post over at Abnormal Returns.
  • #10,435
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:33am Aug 19, 2010 9:33am
Quoting InfinitySL
I used to subscribe (via RSS) to zero-hedge, but a) they qualify to me as perma-bears and b) they border on the conspiracy theorists....
Well, yep, they're skeptical to say the least and no I don't follow their or anyone's advice. I just read 'everything' and try to filter my own nuggets out.
(+ I don't think their site is actually meant as an 'advisory' anyway.)

As for conspiracy theorists, well, the very fact that they usually provide pretty solid 'evidence' to back their claims immediately dismisses that theory. (again, my thoughts only)

Not that I really wish to debate bull/bear markets, as I don't like to show my @$$hole in public,(even though I already have, thrice in one post :-P) but I personally can't say '09 was a bull.

With that I yield the floor ;-]
All the best.
Carpe Divitiae
  • #10,436
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:41pm Aug 19, 2010 12:41pm
To begin with, maybe it is just August that's pissing me off, but I've been sitting on my hands for most of the month. I've found ops, but they always execute during the london session. About 3-4 AM for me. Grrrrrrrrrr.

Maybe come September, we will start seeing ops during the NY or even Asian session, but this is f**king rediculous.

I have no monetary incentive (small account) to stay up all night to get the real entry with a 75 pip stop, rather the taking the trade the next day with a 200 pip stop, but this kills the RR, even for long term trades.

I am so frustrated.

I am patient when I can see that things are worth waiting for. I am impatient when all the things I am waiting for take off without me. I know there is always another trade, but if it happens during London too, who gives an F.

PS: my Oanda GUI is giving me fits too. Depending on how I load it the buttons don't always work. Makes me want a different broker. What's the point of having an account when the order entry window doesn't work?

Hard to trade when it won't let you buy or sell.
  • #10,437
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:03pm Aug 19, 2010 1:03pm
My rational brain tells me I should feel good knowing that these trading conditions are less-than-friendly, but I'm just irritated.
  • #10,438
  • Aug 19, 2010 3:11pm Aug 19, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting Low
My rational brain tells me I should feel good knowing that these trading conditions are less-than-friendly, but I'm just irritated.
I haven't taken a trade in nearly a month and it feels kind of soothing. Like my Warren Buffett quote, I'm waiting for a fat pitch. To me these days the highest probability trades are always when you get clear candlestick action at confluence of s/r (trendline and horizontal) on a weekly chart and I don't care of it means I take two trades a year as long as those trades are the best thought out and highest probability.

Funny I had to get to nearly 700 pages of this thread to "get" this when I could've just kept reading the first 3 or 4 pages over and over and achieved the same result eventually ;-)
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,439
  • Aug 19, 2010 3:48pm Aug 19, 2010 3:48pm
Quoting Low
My rational brain tells me I should feel good knowing that these trading conditions are less-than-friendly, but I'm just irritated.
Hi Low,

Hang in there dude - I too am in the same boat as you.

I got an entry into Usd/Cad long a week or so ago for a long only to get stopped out at B/E just the other day and had been waiting for another entry and it happened last night while I was asleep, it is rather frustrating, especially when you take the time to check your charts every 4 hours when you can, only to see it gone when you can't.

I have no doubt that things will get better in the next month or so.

All the best,
  • #10,440
  • Aug 19, 2010 4:01pm Aug 19, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting Low
To begin with, maybe it is just August that's pissing me off, but I've been sitting on my hands for most of the month. I've found ops, but they always execute during the london session. About 3-4 AM for me. Grrrrrrrrrr.

Maybe come September, we will start seeing ops during the NY or even Asian session, but this is f**king rediculous.

I have no monetary incentive (small account) to stay up all night to get the real entry with a 75 pip stop, rather the taking the trade the next day with a 200 pip stop, but this kills the RR, even for long term trades.

I...
It's is alright.....it's just the time of year. Nothing more - nothing less. As far as switching brokers....I would suggest looking into either interbank fx, whom I have no affiliation, and Dukascopy, which of course advertises on my sites. (If you do go through them.....do it through my banner please! ;-) )

I also liked GFT as well....

Those three are all good in my experiences.

Chris
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