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Odds are with a 4hr KISS

  • #261
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:00am Aug 16, 2010 10:00am
Hello TW0eleven,

from your first's post's,

althru the let say the end,

you initially guard us with 100pips emergency stop loss:

and later you tell that you like to have it at 200pips?!

finally, your mt4 charts say 2 hours then 0 so I do not know about weither
your charts are 4 hours, sorry?!,

but I see myself "things" on 4h & macd...

would you have a comment?
  • #262
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:12am Aug 16, 2010 10:12am
Quoting ericforex
Hello TW0eleven,

from your first's post's,

althru the let say the end,

you initially guard us with 100pips emergency stop loss:

and later you tell that you like to have it at 200pips?!

finally, your mt4 charts say 2 hours then 0 so I do not know about weither
your charts are 4 hours, sorry?!,

but I see myself "things" on 4h & macd...

would you have a comment?
Hi ericforex,

Sorry if I may have confused you...there have been some changes to this method since the beginning. I would stick with a 75 to 100pip stoploss.

As for the MT4 charts saying 2hours and then 0...are you refering to the number in the upper left of my charts??? That number just tells me how much time left before the 4hr candle closes. So depending on when I take a snapshot of the chart, it will always look different.

Let me know if you have any more questions.
  • #263
  • Aug 17, 2010 9:12am Aug 17, 2010 9:12am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Time will tell, but this is how I look at setups in real time!

Here is an update to this GU long setup trade. We got an entry on the pullback to the 20 moving average. However, the very next candle closed below the 20 ma, thus we needed to exit for a loss.

There's a few important things I want to point out about this trade:

1) up till now, you have seen many winning trade examples to get you use to what to look for. But I don't want to be accused of only showing you winning trades because that would not be an accurate representation of this method...there WILL be losing trades too. And here's the proof.

2) We set the 100pip initial stoploss in order to give the trade room to move so we don't get stopped out prematurely. However, we do want to protect our account from some random market event that could cause a 500pip drop/rise in the market...so we MUST set some type of stop loss. This losing trade shows just that...we gave it room to move, yet still protected our account in case of some random BIG move in the market.

3) There are a few people out there who think a 100pip stoploss is too big. But you have to remember, this is a 4hr chart...not a 5minutes chart!!! 4hr candles can move a lot. Your risk/reward on a trade should be roughly 1:1 or better. The 75-100pip stoploss does this...because we typically have a 75 target price. But what's even better about this method is that the 100pip stoploss HARDLY gets hit...if you are in a losing trade, you typically get an exit that is far less than 100pips just like this losing trade example! We only lost 53 pips on this trade...if our next trade is a winner of 75pips...then we come out ahead 22pips!!! And our overall goal in trading is to protect our accounts and come out with a profit right???

Happy Trading!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu4hr17.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #264
  • Aug 17, 2010 9:23am Aug 17, 2010 9:23am
Hi Tw0eleven,

I took the GU trade.
Entered at 1.5635, put fixed SL of 40 and TP of 40 and thus had a winning trade (it went up to 1.5688).

Are there any pairs you are watching right now?
  • #265
  • Aug 17, 2010 9:39am Aug 17, 2010 9:39am
Quoting fguru
Hi Tw0eleven,

I took the GU trade.
Entered at 1.5635, put fixed SL of 40 and TP of 40 and thus had a winning trade (it went up to 1.5688).

Are there any pairs you are watching right now?
THAT'S GREAT!!! I hope everyone reads your post and understands that you have to be flexible in this market! That's why I say use anywhere from a 75-100pip initial stoploss. And that while your initial target price is 50-75pips(depending on the pair)...you might want to take less pips if the market tells you too!

In short, it's nice to have a set of rules...but you must also be flexible with them!!!

As for other pairs I'm watching right now...I missed the EU trade/pullback for longs. However, the EJ looks good for a long trade if it pulls back to the 20ma.
  • #266
  • Aug 17, 2010 10:25am Aug 17, 2010 10:25am
Will watch the EUR/JPY.

I missed the attached USD/CAD trade. Would have been a very nice one, even though there was no lower high. Went down for 100 pips.
Attached Image
  • #267
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:16pm Aug 17, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting fguru
Will watch the EUR/JPY.

I missed the attached USD/CAD trade. Would have been a very nice one, even though there was no lower high. Went down for 100 pips.

Hi fguru, yes...the Ucad was a nice trade if someone took it. I typically don't trade it and wasn't really watching it today. Maybe I should. haha

Just a quick note, you said there was no lower high...Actually there was! If you look at your chart that you posted, go back 5 candles and you see that Doji candle? That formed your Lower High! Actually, let me re-post your chart below...Plenty of reasons to short this pair today!!!
Attached Image
  • #268
  • Aug 17, 2010 3:00pm Aug 17, 2010 3:00pm
Hi Tw0eleven,

yes you are right, now I see the lower high! Thank you very much for explaining everything in detail on the charts, I am learning a lot from it!
  • #269
  • Aug 17, 2010 4:45pm Aug 17, 2010 4:45pm
For those of you who are TRULY interested in this trading method...I have decided to start a chatroom where we can all freely discuss things. We will still be posting trade examples on here too. If you are interested in the chatroom, please PM me. It will be free in case you are wondering.

Once again, this is only for those who are truly serious about this method. I don't want to waste my time or the other traders in there with non-sense. Also, please contribute. Those who do not follow those two rules and/or are not respectful of others will be kicked out.
  • #270
  • Aug 17, 2010 6:17pm Aug 17, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Here is an update to this GU long setup trade. . . . . we needed to exit for a loss
I would never suggest changing your powerful system. However, I did not enter this trade for one simple reason. Another H4 forum on FF advocates no entries in the middle third of the monthly trading range, and GU was in that middle area. Reversals do seem to be more common in the middle.

Having said this, THANK YOU so much for your sensible commentary on this trade, SLs and "you can't win 'em all."

Best, Forest
  • #271
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:12am Aug 18, 2010 5:12am
I didn't take these trades because I was sleeping...but hopefully someone did!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: au4hr002.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #272
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:20am Aug 18, 2010 5:20am
When to trade versus when not to trade??? You must know when it's best to skip a trade!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #273
  • Aug 18, 2010 9:09am Aug 18, 2010 9:09am
Hi there,

I got into two trades but i'm not sure why (which is never a good thing).
In the aussie dollar there's a HL close to the 20 MA and MACD slopping up. Is this enough for a entry?
On USDCHF the thinking was similar. LH but i think my entry was a bit too late.
Charts attached.

Cheers.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #274
  • Aug 18, 2010 9:52am Aug 18, 2010 9:52am
Quoting jackdaniel
Hi there,

I got into two trades but i'm not sure why (which is never a good thing).
In the aussie dollar there's a HL close to the 20 MA and MACD slopping up. Is this enough for a entry?
On USDCHF the thinking was similar. LH but i think my entry was a bit too late.
Charts attached.

Cheers.
I don't see anything wrong with the AU long trade...depending on where you entered, you either made 50pips or got stopped out at breakeven after moving your stoploss up once you reached 35pips of profit.

As for U/Chf...I don't follow that pair...so strickly based on your chart it looks like a valid setup short. Just be careful, maybe take a smaller profit than 50, because when you look to the left...do you see all the support where price keeps stalling(around 1.0360 area) than then going back up???

Hope that helps.


p.s. make sure you are following the entry rules...you want to enter when price is at/near the 20moving average...don't get in late.
  • #275
  • Aug 19, 2010 3:32am Aug 19, 2010 3:32am
looks like the market has become rather choppy lately....possibly rangy, but the ranges aren't very well defined. And GU, it's had some wild swings the last 2 days. So until the market figures out which direction it really wants to go...I'll be on the sidelines.
  • #276
  • Aug 26, 2010 8:26am Aug 26, 2010 8:26am
Well, it's been about a week since my last post...but that's because there hasn't been much in the way of setups with this method for that long. If you have mastered the skill of patience, then the market rewarded you today!!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu4hr19.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4hr017.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #277
  • Aug 26, 2010 8:29am Aug 26, 2010 8:29am
Here's another trade you could have taken...and depending on how you managed the trade you either 1) took 75pips profit 2) took breakeven when it retraced 3) took a smaller profit or 4) might even still be in it and up 50pips or so. The choice is always yours!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej4hr013.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #278
  • Aug 31, 2010 8:20am Aug 31, 2010 8:20am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Here's another trade you could have taken...and depending on how you managed the trade you either 1) took 75pips profit 2) took breakeven when it retraced 3) took a smaller profit or 4) might even still be in it and up 50pips or so. The choice is always yours!!!
Hi Tw0eleven

I following up your thread again.
I see it has been "cool down" recently?
Will you continue to post in this thread?
Are you in live with your current trading method?
Looking forward to seeing you again.

Cheers
  • #279
  • Sep 1, 2010 4:12am Sep 1, 2010 4:12am
Quoting tradpat
Hi Tw0eleven

I following up your thread again.
I see it has been "cool down" recently?
Will you continue to post in this thread?
Are you in live with your current trading method?
Looking forward to seeing you again.

Cheers
Hi Tradpat,

I've been pretty busy lately and the market hasn't given a lot of setups...especially last week. But I have a few setups for this week I will post below. Hope you're finding success!!!
  • #280
  • Sep 1, 2010 4:14am Sep 1, 2010 4:14am
Here's a couple trades that setup already this week...hopefully someone took them! Due to my day job, I missed them!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej4hr014.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu4hr20.gif Size: 30 KB
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