Central Banks & Big Players

I took this too.

Long out BE and change to short set 0SL

im sorry but the euro looks like Niagara falls, nothing looks good for it

yes, lets wreck the euro, i eurokillers

im leaving this as it is i have to sleep my brain is wrecked these days

ascending triangle don't look good at alllll

BE again..

I've been thinking about what were actually looking for here in order to achieve a profitable trade. If were entering with the first few seconds bang on the London open which is also the start of a new 15m/30m/1hr etc candle. Were looking price to never retest our entry due to us entering on the start of candle and a 2pip + spread SL. Therefore a successful candle surely would have no wick ie a shaven head or Marubozu for the open left as the fingerprint on the chart forever.

Probabilities also suggest that if were entering in the direction of a trend on a higher time frame we should have more success. I appreciate that all the usual things have an effect, S&R, news,big orders etc

Has anyone backtested how many 30m /1hr Marubozu (openings) there are on EU, and then what % are on the London open.

If were looking for 50R or 70R. As long as there are more than 1 in 50 Marubozu then Im calculating were in profit? As long as you there and catch that 1 required trade.

So its basically, low strike rate, potential big drawdowns, and then bang an EPIC win.

Are we now able to make some calculated assumptions here based on the above ?

Am I on the right track here?

You could be right. If I remember correctly, August last year was relatively quiet too

Hi guys.

I am trading FX since 1998 and had a lot of interesting discussions with the executing traders of the so called big players. One thing that you should always be aware of and i am sure a lot of you already know this, is that they always see your sl. And if they see also that there is a systematic in a trade and luckily for them a the same time every day, they always will fish that stops and even more if the stops are in easy distance. As you may know the biggies have the problem to get enough of their money into the market. FX is huge but to place their amounts at a second it is not huge enough. So they are glad for every offer which makes their placement easier.... (and if there are hundreds of small orders with their small stops, they are glad to get these). So the more a system is consistently and there is enough people/money behind, the more it will attract them for fishing.

i'm not gambling... i use the money management differently set for different systems... it depends on the winning rate and the average consecutive losses before a winning... a system with an high winning rate can be used better with a fixed lotsize... for example if we have a win of 80 pips once a month is much better use a fixed lotsize...

Hi Folks.

Definition of madness : Doing the same thing over again & again and expecting different results.

BabeFX

But if the outcome is 100% external, this case can be argued?

hi. yes. but I do not currently expect, or want, different results

good response. i did wonder whether someone was going to respond in that manner!

i have stopped posting here now. for me, i think this system is viable and will be trading it privately.

London Open.

Went long and stopped out at -2SL within 20 seconds.

-3...
maybe it would be better to wait for a one pip close above wma (165)

I don't you watch the open of the equity markets also? The correlation with EUR/USD is pretty good and can save you money.

double attempt fail, trade maximum floating at 15 pips, see ya at NY

How long do you watch the market after open time?

Many thx

Best