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  • #4,161
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:06am Aug 18, 2010 7:06am
same
  • #4,162
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:34am Aug 18, 2010 7:34am
Hi Guys,have been reading this thread and want to start trading this method i do have some experiance trading forex but not with these results!
Could anyone give me a breakdown of the enter/exit rules and stoplosses just to clarify before i go live with this?
  • #4,163
  • Aug 18, 2010 9:02am Aug 18, 2010 9:02am
Quoting meben1
Hi Guys,have been reading this thread and want to start trading this method i do have some experiance trading forex but not with these results!
Could anyone give me a breakdown of the enter/exit rules and stoplosses just to clarify before i go live with this?
go to page 1
  • #4,164
  • Aug 18, 2010 9:49am Aug 18, 2010 9:49am
Quoting meben1
Hi Guys,have been reading this thread and want to start trading this method i do have some experiance trading forex but not with these results!
Could anyone give me a breakdown of the enter/exit rules and stoplosses just to clarify before i go live with this?

Huh? How could you have read any of this thread from the first page and not understood the enter/exit rules? Dont trade Forex if you plan to put as much effort into a thread as you will trading.
  • #4,165
  • Aug 18, 2010 10:45am Aug 18, 2010 10:45am
I've a question for Tony and the other reader with the will to reply.

Example: I want risk 1% of the initial deposit on every trade.
With Oanda and the 50x max leverage.

10000 initial deposit
with leverage i can open a 500000 units trade = 5 lots = 50$ for pip
SL = 2pips = 100$ = 1% of loss

The problem is that i'm using the maximum leverage so the next time i'll have 9900$ and can't open another 500000 units trade. This is a problem for a system that is going to take a lot of losses and drawdown of 20-30-50% of the initial deposit.

The only solution is a bigger leverage always respecting the 1% rule or reduce the risk and the reward

I'm going to make some try with dukascopy to review the speed of execution. The big PRO of Oanda is the wonderful Move the stop trailing the stop line. Do you know a solution?
Metatrader Excluded.
  • #4,166
  • Aug 18, 2010 11:29am Aug 18, 2010 11:29am
Quoting aokmanga
I've a question for Tony and the other reader with the will to reply.

Example: I want risk 1% of the initial deposit on every trade.
With Oanda and the 50x max leverage.

10000 initial deposit
with leverage i can open a 500000 units trade = 5 lots = 50$ for pip
SL = 2pips = 100$ = 1% of loss

The problem is that i'm using the maximum leverage so the next time i'll have 9900$ and can't open another 500000 units trade. This is a problem for a system that is going to take a lot of losses and drawdown of 20-30-50% of the initial deposit.

The...
dont forget the spread of at least 0,9 pips (which would be 45$ if your pipvalue is 50$=1pip), so you would lose more than 1%.

if you take a loss, then your balance is decreased of course, therefore you risk less on the next trade (if you keep 1% risk).

you have to calculate the lotsize after each trade.

besides i would recommend you to risk less, if you just start trading this method. i personally risk about 0.5% and less on each london/ny open. the reward is still high enough, just stay at the method.
  • #4,167
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:17pm Aug 18, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting sentinel777
dont forget the spread of at least 0,9 pips (which would be 45$ if your pipvalue is 50$=1pip), so you would lose more than 1%.

if you take a loss, then your balance is decreased of course, therefore you risk less on the next trade (if you keep 1% risk).

you have to calculate the lotsize after each trade.

besides i would recommend you to risk less, if you just start trading this method. i personally risk about 0.5% and less on each london/ny open. the reward is still high enough, just stay at the method.
the sl was included spread. Am I right?
I've seen that the 2 pips SL in the past messages was spread included.
  • #4,168
  • Aug 18, 2010 3:15pm Aug 18, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting aokmanga
the sl was included spread. Am I right?
I've seen that the 2 pips SL in the past messages was spread included.
i dont know how Tony is trading (with 2pip Sl + spread or incl. spread), but i am trading with SL+spread = 2,9 pips = 0,5% of account balance
  • #4,169
  • Aug 18, 2010 3:39pm Aug 18, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting aokmanga
I've a question for Tony and the other reader with the will to reply.

Example: I want risk 1% of the initial deposit on every trade.
With Oanda and the 50x max leverage.

10000 initial deposit
with leverage i can open a 500000 units trade = 5 lots = 50$ for pip
SL = 2pips = 100$ = 1% of loss

The problem is that i'm using the maximum leverage so the next time i'll have 9900$ and can't open another 500000 units trade. This is a problem for a system that is going to take a lot of losses and drawdown of 20-30-50% of the initial deposit.

The...

your lotsize, like your accountsize will increase/decrease geometrically

if you keep your lotsize the same irregardless of your current account size, you might as well state your lotsize as a constant figure and do away with the pretense of 1% money management.
  • #4,170
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:17pm Aug 18, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting deathbait
your lotsize, like your accountsize will increase/decrease geometrically

if you keep your lotsize the same irregardless of your current account size, you might as well state your lotsize as a constant figure and do away with the pretense of 1% money management.
but if you decrease your lotsize it will be very difficult to produce a good gain with a system with so many losses...
  • #4,171
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:51pm Aug 18, 2010 4:51pm
I made some calculations.
Here are the differences between decreasing lotsize with the accountsize or leaving the same lotsize while you are losing.

So...

After 40 consecutive losses (1% of risk)

Fixed Lotsize
Initial Deposit 10000$
Deposit after Losses 6000$
Deposit after win 11000$

Decreasing Lotsize
Initial Deposit 10000$
Deposit after Losses 6757$
Deposit after win 10135$

After 60 consecutive losses (1% of risk)

Fixed Lotsize
Initial Deposit 10000$
Deposit after Losses 5526$
Deposit after win 8290$

Decreasing Lotsize
Initial Deposit 10000$
Deposit after Losses 4000$
Deposit after win 6000$


After 80 consecutive losses (1% of risk)

Fixed Lotsize
Initial Deposit 10000$
Deposit after Losses 4520$
Deposit after win 6780$

Decreasing Lotsize
Initial Deposit 10000$
Deposit after Losses 2000$
Deposit after win 3000$

We only need now to know the average consecutive losses before a winner to see which of the two strategies is more profitable...
Hope to see a good discussion around the topic
  • #4,172
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:21pm Aug 18, 2010 7:21pm
this right here is the reason why i hate to see the term money management discussed on the forums.

majority of the ppl here have no idea what it is.

you should always have an idea of how much u wish to risk. To play the long game, it's highly recommended(read:essential) that the risk is proportional to your account size.

By your logic, you should INCREASE your risk everytime u lose, giving yourself a bigger payoff when it comes. that's just REALLY bad understanding of probabilities and values

you're gambling. pure and simple. Why play 2 lines on the jackpot machine when u can play all 5? You could win so much more!
  • #4,173
  • Edited 8:04pm Aug 18, 2010 7:47pm | Edited 8:04pm
Quoting aokmanga
I made some calculations.
Here are the differences between decreasing lotsize with the accountsize or leaving the same lotsize while you are losing.

So...
<snip>
After 80 consecutive losses (1% of risk)

Fixed Lotsize
Initial Deposit 10000$
Deposit after Losses 4520$
Deposit after win 6780$

Decreasing Lotsize
Initial Deposit 10000$
Deposit after Losses 2000$
Deposit after win 3000$
You've got your Deposit after Losses numbers mixed up. (on second look, maybe Deposit after win also). Take the last set for example. With fixed lot size you should have a deposit after losses of $2000, and with decreasing lot size your deposit after losses should probably be greater as in the $4520 figure.

But I would recheck your numbers as I'm already seeing errors. If you're using a fixed % risk per trade of 1% and your stop loss is 2 pips, and profit target at 140 pips as in this strategy if you're able to keep trading the strategy (enough cash to keep with lot sizing) on Fixed % of initial deposit, 2 pips is 1% risk / return, and so 140 pips will return 70% on the initial balance. Try this:

After 80 consecutive losses (1% of risk)
Fixed Lotsize
Initial Deposit 10000$
Deposit after Losses 2000$
Deposit after win 9000$

I'm sure your Decreasing lotsize calculation is off as well but you'll have to figure that one out yourself.

And finally, as Deathbait alluded, the real question is what type of money management strategy can ensure that you don't blow out completely while giving you a chance to take advantage of the opportunity that comes when the strategy is hitting its targets? The classic dilemma of a low win% strategy.

Tony alluded to the fact earlier that he averages 1 pip of loss due to his quick SL movement to BE or 0SL. This would allow for more losses in between profits with the same risk as the effective average risk is lowered to 1/2% per trade.
  • #4,174
  • Aug 18, 2010 11:58pm Aug 18, 2010 11:58pm
get ready for London open, epic win is coming soon we are due I have raised my TP to 200 pips now frustration level is at 4 now
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #4,175
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:31am Aug 19, 2010 12:31am
yes....here we go..
  • #4,176
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:11am Aug 19, 2010 1:11am
Quoting Tony112
get ready for London open, epic win is coming soon we are due I have raised my TP to 200 pips now frustration level is at 4 now
When was last epic win?
  • #4,177
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:57am Aug 19, 2010 1:57am
Quoting summicron
When was last epic win?

3 weeks ago I took 100 pips
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #4,178
  • Aug 19, 2010 2:03am Aug 19, 2010 2:03am
minus 2 london open
  • #4,179
  • Aug 19, 2010 2:03am Aug 19, 2010 2:03am
Long still hold
  • #4,180
  • Aug 19, 2010 2:05am Aug 19, 2010 2:05am
epic piss-off, take-off fail
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