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Silent Service Method

  • #10,401
  • Aug 16, 2010 6:54pm Aug 16, 2010 6:54pm
I have to admit, I didn't really know much about the things going on over at Jacko's thread. I have to admit that I kinda chose not to know.....
  • #10,402
  • Aug 16, 2010 7:21pm Aug 16, 2010 7:21pm
It looks like there might be some sanity coming back into the Wheat pits.......

Of course, I also see a pullback, which could be a long at 580/600 area. This is a perfect example of "picking your battlefield." Waiting for the perfect spot. Not entering before that point.
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  • #10,403
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:04pm Aug 16, 2010 9:04pm
Here's a look at the US T-Bill 30 yr.
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  • #10,404
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:50pm Aug 16, 2010 9:50pm
Yup... And the yield on the 30yr Treasury Bond is 3.75%. The 10yr US Treasury is ~2.60%. And any of you in the US with a mortgage can likely find a lender willing to lend you money for 30yrs @ 4.25% (that is, if your home isn't underwater).

While these low interest rates are great for businesses that want to borrow, they are absolutely terrible for pensions and anyone else with certain investment hurdle rates (annuities that guarantee a certain minimum, insurance companies that need a certain rate to meet their actuarial projections, 401k investors who expect X% return until they retire, etc). Very bizzare times we're living in.

I'll be perfectly honest, I'm a bit confused about the future outcome of things. I don't get a warm an fuzzy feeling about things but then again they say rallies climb a "wall of worry" -- I guess that's me...
  • #10,405
  • Aug 17, 2010 2:42am Aug 17, 2010 2:42am
Hi All,

August certainly blows.

Attached is my logic behind a long trade in the EURUSD that I entered last night and would like your thoughts on it.

It is a trade that I would expect to hold for 36hrs to 4-5 days max.

The logic behind this trade is the confluence of the 3 following factors:

1. Daily rising trend line support remains unbroken
2. CW style resistance level around 1.2750 (on daily and minor)
3. 1.272? area is the 50% retracement of the 1.18?? low to the recent highs

Price seemed to probe the area and is now looking to reverse imho.

I have scaled entries at 1.2820 (1/3 position), resting order @ 1.2775 (1/3 position) and resting order @ 1.2745 (1/3 position). SL @ 1.2695 (just below the nonsense) and TPs are 1.30, 1.3080 and 1.32 respectively for each position as listed.

Total risk assuming all positions are hit is 265 pips (@ 1/3 position size risk)
A) Total reward assuming all positions open and hit TP1 only is 180+225+375=780
B) Total reward assuming all positions open and hit respective TPs is 180+305+455=940

R:R on scenario A is 2.943:1
R:R on scenario B is 3.547:1

Charts are below and also I have highlighted in blue one of the clearest examples of a 3-drives to a top pattern that I have seen recently. Watch the RSI momentum dropping as each new high is hit, hoping the same is ahead again on this pair (if only ).

Apologies that this is not a standard SS setup however given how slow and boring the market is I thought I would take the opportunity to ask your collective opinions. Hope that's ok with everyone.

Cheers, 4x.
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  • #10,406
  • Aug 17, 2010 9:52am Aug 17, 2010 9:52am
Quoting clockwork71
Here's a look at the US T-Bill 30 yr.
That's the FED not sticking to it's own trading plan (or lets say, not revealing it's true trading plan).

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ber...ounces-will-al

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gue...30y-treasuries

R.I.P Free and Fair Market. I will certainly miss you...

and I tip my hat to Chris and the rest of you guys in this thread that have the balls to stay in any market for weeks on end, knowing (or not?) that at any given moment, it can be ripped right out from under you.

Although I still only study and trade off 1W/1D, I'm like a proper whore these days... get in, get paid, get out.
(and only get in if you're sure you're going to get paid in the first place)

Anyway, I enjoy reading this thread from time to time. All the best to the lot of you.

(PS. no, i'm really not a ZH junkie, they just 'bring the truth' ahead of most others)
Carpe Divitiae
  • #10,407
  • Aug 17, 2010 10:29am Aug 17, 2010 10:29am
I did not know i had joined the WHORE COMMUNITY.........i trade similar way.....i do not keep my trades running for more than two days...if anything within end of day...my T/P or S/L have already been hit.............cheers all

Quoting fsiltd
That's the FED not sticking to it's own trading plan (or lets say, not revealing it's true trading plan).

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ber...ounces-will-al

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gue...30y-treasuries

R.I.P Free and Fair Market. I will certainly miss you...

and I tip my hat to Chris and the rest of you guys in this thread that have the balls to stay in any market for weeks on end, knowing (or not?) that at any given moment,...
  • #10,408
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:11pm Aug 17, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Yup... And the yield on the 30yr Treasury Bond is 3.75%....
I think the housing market is a screaming buy, but not yet.....the largest wave of foreclosures actually hit right about now. My wife and I are thinking of buying next year, maybe in the fall. I have never tried to time the mortgage/housing market - but my guess is that it would be about the correct time.

Housing will continue to struggle as long as people keep trying to take the most important part of the equation out - supply and demand.

If they would just let it actually crash - we'd be done with all of this nonsense.
  • #10,409
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:12pm Aug 17, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting fsiltd
That's the FED not sticking to it's own trading plan (or lets say, not revealing it's true trading plan).

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ber...ounces-will-al

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gue...30y-treasuries

R.I.P Free and Fair Market. I will certainly miss you...

and I tip my hat to Chris and the rest of you guys in this thread that have the balls to stay in any market for weeks on end, knowing (or not?) that at any given moment,...
Thanks for posting these links, very good reading.
  • #10,410
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:13pm Aug 17, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting Danku
I did not know i had joined the WHORE COMMUNITY.........i trade similar way.....i do not keep my trades running for more than two days...if anything within end of day...my T/P or S/L have already been hit.............cheers all
And that is the point of trading - it is personal. You have to do what makes you comfortable. From what I can tell - you have been doing quite well!
  • #10,411
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:19pm Aug 17, 2010 1:19pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi All,

August certainly blows.

Attached is my logic behind a long trade in the EURUSD that I entered last night and would like your thoughts on it.

It is a trade that I would expect to hold for 36hrs to 4-5 days max.

The logic behind this trade is the confluence of the 3 following factors:

1. Daily rising trend line support remains unbroken
2. CW style resistance level around 1.2750 (on daily and minor)
3. 1.272? area is the 50% retracement of the 1.18?? low to the recent highs

Price seemed to probe the area and is now looking to reverse...

No need to apologize, we can all teach each other a little something. I am not a big fan of shorter time frames......but sometimes the market offers little outside of those trades.

The markets have been whacked lately, and as such, need a bullish day or two. (Nothing goes straight down.) So as such, I believe that the EUR/USD should go up for a minute.....hence the 1.30 possible entry on this chart. As per usual, I would be entering on a weekly S/R area......which to me is the most important part of SSM. (Waiting for the prey to come to YOUR PART OF THE OCEAN TO ATTACK!
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  • #10,412
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:28pm Aug 17, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting clockwork71
No need to apologize, we can all teach each other a little something. I am not a big fan of shorter time frames......but sometimes the market offers little outside of those trades.

The markets have been whacked lately, and as such, need a bullish day or two. (Nothing goes straight down.) So as such, I believe that the EUR/USD should go up for a minute.....hence the 1.30 possible entry on this chart. As per usual, I would be entering on a weekly S/R area......which to me is the most important part of SSM. (Waiting for the prey to come to...
Like your post as always Top in my view 1.3070
Interesting article
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/63...ost_submission
  • #10,413
  • Aug 17, 2010 2:16pm Aug 17, 2010 2:16pm
I think i found my comfort zone Chris and it all started here at SSM and afew threads i read (including one where there is serious Ponzi), and Yes....my small account has been doing quite...........cheers all..........

Quoting clockwork71
And that is the point of trading - it is personal. You have to do what makes you comfortable. From what I can tell - you have been doing quite well!
  • #10,414
  • Aug 17, 2010 6:04pm Aug 17, 2010 6:04pm
Wow,

Been away for awhile....seems to be problems at the " the house of pain or pleasure. "

Pain is what I would call it...Ouch !!

At least with Chris...you get the real deal...real truth...humble trading at it's best.

Read your own charts...plan your trades...trade small...be humble...and be there for the next trade.

Thats all I have to say on the subject.


good hunting,



golferfx

  • #10,415
  • Aug 17, 2010 6:29pm Aug 17, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting golferfx
Wow,

Been away for awhile....seems to be problems at the " the house of pain or pleasure. "

Pain is what I would call it...Ouch !!

At least with Chris...you get the real deal...real truth...humble trading at it's best.

Read your own charts...plan your trades...trade small...be humble...and be there for the next trade.

Thats all I have to say on the subject.


good hunting,



[font=Arial]golferfx...

Thanks Golfer.
  • #10,416
  • Aug 17, 2010 6:33pm Aug 17, 2010 6:33pm
I took profit in my long CAD position that got triggered on the weekly. It still is holding up, but I just felt that in this environment - we are struggling to find any real direction.

I think it will continue to be that way for a couple of weeks. Once we get back to the real volumes - the opportunities should present themselves.

I have mentioned a couple of time recently that taking profits might be advisable....a least a little quicker than normal....because of this summer drifting.

I am posting this chart just so you can see there is still a possibility of another long entry here.....it will depend on smaller time frames I suppose.
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  • #10,417
  • Aug 18, 2010 3:39am Aug 18, 2010 3:39am
Quoting clockwork71
I took profit in my long CAD position that got triggered on the weekly. It still is holding up, but I just felt that in this environment - we are struggling to find any real direction.

I think it will continue to be that way for a couple of weeks. Once we get back to the real volumes - the opportunities should present themselves.

I have mentioned a couple of time recently that taking profits might be advisable....a least a little quicker than normal....because of this summer drifting.

I am posting this chart just so you can see there...
Chris,

Thanks for the feedback on the EURUSD trade. Probably should have waited as you say

I have decided to hold open the USDCAD long but move stops to b/e once I finish this post. Attached is a daily chart which shows why I have decided to stay in. Blue box shows the region around the weekly hammer signal and the fib projection shows that price has retraced to the 50% fib level of the weekly hammer bottom to the most recent high.

I totally agree with your attitude though about taking profits early in this type of market. I just thought I would let a free trade run to see what happens

Cheers.
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  • #10,418
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:27am Aug 18, 2010 4:27am
This is an interesting chart, heating oil weekly. That trendline doesn't mean anything at the moment but look at 1.88.

Chris, how would you go about looking at the fundamentals for this? We're getting towards the tail end of summer, oil is still ranging. Maybe it could touch 1.88 again before a move up as we get into winter?
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Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,419
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:50am Aug 18, 2010 7:50am
Quoting Arfer Daily
This is an interesting chart, heating oil weekly. That trendline doesn't mean anything at the moment but look at 1.88.

Chris, how would you go about looking at the fundamentals for this? We're getting towards the tail end of summer, oil is still ranging. Maybe it could touch 1.88 again before a move up as we get into winter?

Heating oil is definitely a seasonal market. The northeastern US relies on it much more than the rest of the country. As an example, I am in Ohio, and we use natural gas for most of our heating. As such, it really can come down to two things:

 

  1. Weather patterns in the NY/Mass/Conn/Vermont/NH/Maine region
  2. Inventories

If there is a lot of this stuff in inventory - it won't move as much as you would think. In this way, it behaves similar to nat gas.

However, they can and will decouple if there is a glut of one, and scarcity of the other....

  • #10,420
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:52am Aug 18, 2010 7:52am
Quoting 4xAddict
Chris,

Thanks for the feedback on the EURUSD trade. Probably should have waited as you say

I have decided to hold open the USDCAD long but move stops to b/e once I finish this post. Attached is a daily chart which shows why I have decided to stay in. Blue box shows the region around the weekly hammer signal and the fib projection shows that price has retraced to the 50% fib level of the weekly hammer bottom to the most recent high.

I totally agree with your attitude though about taking profits early in this type of market. I just thought...
I should quantify this with saying that I will be switching to a "running mode" in about 2 weeks......


Best of luck. If you make 7 big figures, I will be cheering you on. And feeling sick to my stomach. lol
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