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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #18,081
  • Aug 15, 2010 3:11pm Aug 15, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting fti
Gro, but if you are young you won't need to remember la.
I surely miss my PA and secretarys. They will draft and dot the "i" s and titte the "t" s. redraft, reprhase and second draft and 3 draft and final drafts., and proof read.Grammer checking and checking for compression of words, so that at the end a nice piece of article that says very little will be released.
But that will please the perfectionist. Yeap, they the ones always gets killed in the markets.
When i was very young, had that perfectionist scorpion, but had managed exile...
Hi FTI

Maybe I wrote it wrong but I agree with you.
Trade without errors not exist, as well as life.That's why I use "spell checker" or "spell repair" (it is better)
"Way to the top of "your hill",it is very difficult but Market is good "Fire chariot" for ego and his fear."

... not to be afraid to lose the fear

Regards
  • #18,082
  • Aug 15, 2010 4:06pm Aug 15, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting johnvr
Now on page 154 but it seems that tghe thread has come to an end as far as FTI;s education is concerned, all I have seen between page 100 and page 154 is a lot of people telling each other about their trades? Not interested in what they do, i am interested in what FTI has to contribute and add to what he has already tought me . My question is, is it worth reading any further? there are more than a 1000 pages to go?
Somewhere I read that the difference between knowledge and wisdom was the ability of learning from others mistakes (wisdom).

The first part of the thread gives instruction, the latter is made up of the real-life drama, ( both good and bad ) of those trying to incorporate it into their trading --- some correctly, others ????

There's nuggets to be found in both, depends on how you study.

regards,
  • #18,083
  • Aug 15, 2010 6:50pm Aug 15, 2010 6:50pm
Quoting auxesis
Rob,

Fti originally introduced the term hip/lop, or high point / low point into the thread, in reference to Wilder's original studies which are protected under copyright and unavailable on the internet as far as I know.

I used the term to mean higher/lower highs or lows. I believe Wilder used something similar to what we would describe as a fractal in his analysis regarding hip/lops, but I can't be certain as I've never studied the material, just what I've gleamed from others on the subject.

Most of my info is taken from John Hill, already referenced...
Most helpful, auxesis. Thanks for your reply.
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #18,084
  • Aug 15, 2010 10:39pm Aug 15, 2010 10:39pm
anyone wanna join in skype... i am there...


V
  • #18,085
  • Aug 16, 2010 12:57am Aug 16, 2010 12:57am
Hey Tubguy. thanks, will carry on regardless.
  • #18,086
  • Aug 16, 2010 3:05am Aug 16, 2010 3:05am
Quoting indianguyinny24
anyone wanna join in skype... i am there...


V
I've never been on skype,would love to give it a go could you instruct me in how to get on it please.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #18,087
  • Aug 16, 2010 3:16am Aug 16, 2010 3:16am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-stimulus.html

The word is now officially out. Again.
  • #18,088
  • Aug 16, 2010 3:34am Aug 16, 2010 3:34am
Quoting Setebos
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-stimulus.html

The word is now officially out. Again.
Hi,

thanx for the info.
  • #18,089
  • Aug 16, 2010 3:47am Aug 16, 2010 3:47am
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66M1ZR20100813
Another one, this time from Reutes, it seems it's all over the place. Like a coordinated attack, hmm.
Gold just made another jump up.... a week of risk aversion ahead?
  • #18,090
  • Edited 5:34am Aug 16, 2010 4:32am | Edited 5:34am
Quoting Setebos
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66M1ZR20100813
Another one, this time from Reutes, it seems it's all over the place. Like a coordinated attack, hmm.
Gold just made another jump up.... a week of risk aversion ahead?
:nerd:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=18040

"Do you know what is most important when you find yourself in the pit? Stop digging." Warren Buffett
  • #18,091
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:09am Aug 16, 2010 9:09am
Hi again,

Gro's snippet above from Warren Buffet and especially the word "digging" made me write this posting...

I have started to reread this thread from the beginning a few days ago and it is still (after several reads before) like digging in a goldmine. There are details and insights, that i would swear, have not been there before

All I want to say: If there is nothing totrade , or you are not sure about the rythm the market is dancing, uswe the time to start a new read of this unbelievable thread. And I'm sure that also all the TAF veterans will find some new insights too.

All the best to all fo you!

MaMood
  • #18,092
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:16am Aug 16, 2010 9:16am
Quoting paul1
I have seen this behaviour in a few things in life.
Applies to me too.
The most dangerous point in any learning experience in my opinion is not at the start of the learning curve.As i have witnessed so many times its as your confidence exceeds your ablity/experience.
eg:-
My children learn to ride bike, at first real cautious few scrapes fall off while hardly moving no big deal.
Confidence builds,start to go too fast misjudge bend dont brake correctly,
gets big cut and bruises,cries.
Now i get them back on bike as soon as injuries are sorted...
The important distinction I think to be made between the physical harm of riding a bike and battling your mind in the game of speculation is encompassed in a quote I read just today "Denying our painful feelings is like leaving your hand in the flame, and just turning your head so you don't have to watch". What that is really getting at is, I think most people know they are making mistakes in the market through either risking too much i.e. being reckless, or they trade against their systems when they intuitively know it's wrong but I think dude to the rather poor education we receive regarding understanding our minds/inner voices etc culminates in use learning to trade/speculate profitable much more slowly if at all in comparison to physical harm which is a lot more obvious/confronting and memorable.

I can't help but feel that in order to be profitable in trading, one must educate oneself in this art of listening to the inner voice or whatever it is that is guiding us, but I hope you understand what I'm talking about.

P.S. That quote was talking about ignoring painful emotions that we experience which prevents us from making changes in our lives in order to learn from past mistakes which have caused those negative emotions, but I think this is closely linked to trading mentality also.
  • #18,093
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:00am Aug 16, 2010 10:00am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
The important distinction I think to be made between the physical harm of riding a bike and battling your mind in the game of speculation is encompassed in a quote I read just today "Denying our painful feelings is like leaving your hand in the flame, and just turning your head so you don't have to watch". What that is really getting at is, I think most people know they are making mistakes in the market through either risking too much i.e. being reckless, or they trade against their systems when they intuitively know it's wrong but I think dude...
Indeed although I, for one, will caution against listening to your inner-self on a trading basis, The markets have very little in common with a retail trader on the curve (and not a rates desk).

Funny how Elvis' music withstands the test of time.They'll probably have Elvis records when we get to Mars..

Just my opinion,
Inserted Video
  • #18,094
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:22am Aug 16, 2010 10:22am
Quoting paul1
Must admit to being a bit cross eyed at moment.
What I see:-
1)Been in uptrend for some weeks
2)Now in downtrend for 4 days
3)But since i logged off yesterday been continous move up about 10 hours worth.
Appreciate the comment but this was what i saw.
To be honest I ,like most on this forum, could not settle on a strong bias.
You say" trade what you see" could you possibly expand on this please .
It's a little irritating as I do tend to trade with my eyes open unless its really late an I'am tired.
If you can't expand on your comment...
On my charts eur/usd is still in a down trend but it all depends on what you call a trend and the timeframe you look at. Whatever the trend, price will not move in a straight line.

I cannot tell from your posts if you are trying to spot/guess the trends or if you are actually trading. From what I see so far you are trying to guess the direction and then buy/sell accordingly. If you have read the thread then you know that this is not exactly how we do it here.

What I mean "trade with eyes open" is spot the impulse wave, enter scout and manage your positions.. attack and rescue. It does not matter that much what the price has done last 4 days or last 2 weeks because its all history (but its good to remember that in back of year head). You have to be in the NOW, look at Price and its behavior. The "dance" is basically all the little up and down waves in a 5min chart. Sometimes you will be in sync with the market, sometimes not.

As I write this, I feel like I am repeating the same that has already been said in this thread for the 101st time.

So please do read before asking more.
  • #18,095
  • Aug 16, 2010 11:36am Aug 16, 2010 11:36am
Has anyone has a latest version "PHD Trader" EA? I heard the new one has a very strong money management and income security. Heard that it will be more profitable in new version izzit? I just have a version 3 in my hand. My version 3 only makes me 20% of profit a month. If someone else has the latest version, please share it here. Share also the result for the EA.

Thank you.

Regards,
Peter 2010
  • #18,096
  • Aug 16, 2010 12:56pm Aug 16, 2010 12:56pm
Hi,

maybe you have seen it already....

http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_ariely_...decisions.html

There are many parallels with our behavior/decision making when we are in a trade, that is not running in our favour ...
  • #18,097
  • Aug 16, 2010 1:56pm Aug 16, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi,

maybe you have seen it already....

http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_ariely_...decisions.html

There are many parallels with our behavior/decision making when we are in a trade, that is not running in our favour ...
Hi MaMood

"Only the vigilant attention, (without examining and evaluated anything) is able to look at matter of fact" ... then perhaps free will ...

"Man - thinks ... God - change"

Regards
  • #18,098
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:36pm Aug 16, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting Gro
Hi MaMood

"Only the vigilant attention, (without examining and evaluated anything) is able to look at matter of fact" ... then perhaps free will ...

"Man - thinks ... God - change"

Regards

Gro are you saying...


"Man proposes ...God disposes "...





V
  • #18,099
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:38pm Aug 16, 2010 2:38pm
Thanks Mamood,

Found that very interesting. I love anything that deals with how our minds work.
  • #18,100
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:42pm Aug 16, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi,

maybe you have seen it already....

http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_ariely_...decisions.html

There are many parallels with our behavior/decision making when we are in a trade, that is not running in our favour ...
his book "Predictably Irrational" is a very good read.
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