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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #18,061
  • Aug 14, 2010 6:00am Aug 14, 2010 6:00am
Thanks Paul and Fana, I agree with both of your comments. I think the most difficult aspect that most people struggle with is facing up to the truth as simple as it may be. That's really what I'm trying to figure out... i.e. why people twist something simple and pure into something that is so distorted due to their own perceptions that it makes no sense to anyone, including themselves. The only way to get to that truth is by trial and error/resilience as you guys said... but really, why on earth do we first succeed at something (beginner's 'luck') and then go through a protracted phase of self delusion until we finally figure it out again? But one thing is for sure, this thread has some really great information... thanks fti.
  • #18,062
  • Aug 14, 2010 8:13am Aug 14, 2010 8:13am
Started reading this thread, now only on page 100, phew, see you in month or two.
  • #18,063
  • Aug 14, 2010 9:15am Aug 14, 2010 9:15am
Quoting piphop
Hi Auxesis

Quite a while back now I did some research in an effort to get info on 'hip and lop' studies. I can't clearly remember what the obstacle was but I know I came to a dead end. Do you know if there is a current or a past publication on this subject that might be available.

Cheers

Rob
Rob,

Fti originally introduced the term hip/lop, or high point / low point into the thread, in reference to Wilder's original studies which are protected under copyright and unavailable on the internet as far as I know.

I used the term to mean higher/lower highs or lows. I believe Wilder used something similar to what we would describe as a fractal in his analysis regarding hip/lops, but I can't be certain as I've never studied the material, just what I've gleamed from others on the subject.

Most of my info is taken from John Hill, already referenced in the thread, and Wyckoff which is a very similar study on trend and market accumulation/distribution patterns.

regards,
  • #18,064
  • Aug 14, 2010 12:06pm Aug 14, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting piphop
Hi Auxesis

Quite a while back now I did some research in an effort to get info on 'hip and lop' studies. I can't clearly remember what the obstacle was but I know I came to a dead end. Do you know if there is a current or a past publication on this subject that might be available.

Cheers

Rob
Dutch Angel has posted this explanation in TAF thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/search.p...nduser&u=53356

Paste of DA post:

"Hi Thalassi

I did a lot of research on hips and lops. I wanted to pm a doc that I made on the subject, but your pm is not enabled, so I will post the crux of it here for you.

Lop is an abbreviation of Low Point. A Lop is any time bar which has a bar immediately before it and immediately after it with a higher low.

Hip signifies a high point and is defined as any time bar which has a bar immediately before it and immediately after it with a lower high.

Sip is a significant point. A sip must be defined as either a hi sip or a lo sip. The hi sip is the highest price reached in a long trade and the lo sip is the lowest price reached in a short trade.

Sic is abbreviation for significant close.

My conclusion:
Hip and Lop patterns are very similar to Bill Williams fractals except they comprise a 3 bar pattern whereas Williams fractals consist of 5 bars."

If DA's offer to to share her doc is still open please PM or post?

Regards,
Baifu
  • #18,065
  • Aug 14, 2010 5:04pm Aug 14, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting eraptheman
The hip and lop are equal to our todays terms as HL, HH for an uptrend and LH and LL for downtrend. The theory states that in a strong uptrend/Downtrend, the order sequence you would see is hip and lop repeatedly, but when the sequence is mix up, you are entering in a ranging market. Correct me if I'm wrong.
looking for mechanical dances?
Must be the new age thingy.
Everyone below this post seem looking for robot codes?
I not sure, but can be dangerous.

regards
  • #18,066
  • Edited 5:38pm Aug 14, 2010 5:21pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting paul1
Hello james,
I will take a look at the thread and compare to fti's teaching.
If your very new whilst practising and incorporating Fti's teaching.
please try concentrate on the obvious,which eluded me for ages.
Just get you making some pips if your not already.
I hope i dont insult your intelligence if you have already noticed my points
but here goes.
In uptrend
1) identify triangles in price action, a=top,b=bottom left ,c=bottom right corner.
2) once you identify one when price candles forming to the right rise above point...
Can anyone get rich with just knowing how to ride trends?
Interesting, the way you think.
Careful about the getting rich by riding trend thoughts.
But i agree that if anyone not know how to ride trends, then he's just scalper. We already know , just cannot out scalp market makers
Just for your benefit, the turtle traders are renown trend riders in the market.
Many of them did very well over the long run. But i like caution you of Richards experiences on his funds during the year 2000 patch. You try find the info on the net. And that Drexel experiences and lessons learned therefrom. Takes only 1 tsunami, or the lack of, that can destroy the hold nestings.

I remind you, your mindset and thought pattern , translates to trade mindset and reflexes. So be careful what habits you develop, esp in your mind.
Rigidity kills.

However, if you so wish I can engage you on that discussion. We will be discussing what won't work, and that would take this thread to the next millennium. Just remembered, someone complained that i cannot spell "millennium", so i used spell checker.

regards
  • #18,067
  • Aug 14, 2010 6:00pm Aug 14, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting fti
Can anyone get rich with just knowing how to ride trends?
Interesting, the way you think.
Careful about the getting rich by riding trend thoughts.
But i agree that if anyone not know how to ride trends, then he's just scalper. We already know , just cannot out scalp market makers
Just for your benefit, the turtle traders are renown trend riders in the market.
Many of them did very well over the long run. But i like caution you of Richards experiences on his funds during the year 2000 patch. You try find the info on the net. And that Drexel...
Hi FTI

"spell checker" It is very original, I must remember
  • #18,068
  • Aug 14, 2010 6:18pm Aug 14, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting Zoran
If trading ends up being just a lot of reflexes, can we train this bear to trade?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ghgg_fukbvU

Thats nuts! I dont know about trading tho? wouldn't he/she always be going short?? guess it could make money in a down trend though...
  • #18,069
  • Aug 14, 2010 7:50pm Aug 14, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting paul1
Hello james,
I will take a look at the thread and compare to fti's teaching.
If your very new whilst practising and incorporating Fti's teaching.
please try concentrate on the obvious,which eluded me for ages.
Just get you making some pips if your not already.
I hope i dont insult your intelligence if you have already noticed my points
but here goes.
In uptrend
1) identify triangles in price action, a=top,b=bottom left ,c=bottom right corner.
2) once you identify one when price candles forming to the right rise above point "a" enter...
Hi Paul Fti stated in one of his posts ....When I was training traders it was the least intelligent that were the easiest to train not the intelligent as the latter, had minds that were full of to many concepts and ego ,so no insult was recieved.Also there are many forms of intelligence.Paul in which part of the world do you live.Thankyou again for your generosity. James
  • #18,070
  • Edited 2:52am Aug 15, 2010 1:54am | Edited 2:52am
Quoting Gro
Hi FTI

"spell checker" It is very original, I must remember
Gro, but if you are young you won't need to remember la.
I surely miss my PA and secretarys. They will draft and dot the "i" s and titte the "t" s. redraft, reprhase and second draft and 3 draft and final drafts., and proof read.Grammer checking and checking for compression of words, so that at the end a nice piece of article that says very little will be released.
But that will please the perfectionist. Yeap, they the ones always gets killed in the markets.
When i was very young, had that perfectionist scorpion, but had managed exile it. Once a while it comes back haunts me.
Warant buffett made very nice statement on that issue.
That, Perfection is God's work, all we can excel to is excellence.

To err is so human nature.No?

regards
  • #18,071
  • Edited 2:41am Aug 15, 2010 2:23am | Edited 2:41am
Quoting khidir
Hi Paul Fti stated in one of his posts ....When I was training traders it was the least intelligent that were the easiest to train not the intelligent as the latter, had minds that were full of to many concepts and ego ,so no insult was recieved.Also there are many forms of intelligence.Paul in which part of the world do you live.Thankyou again for your generosity. James
Hi khidir,
Yes, some people think I keep slamming the educated. The truth is , there are very intelligent people in the education and certification system. But unfortunately they are the minority.Mostly the function of certification was to acertain that people carrying it has"basic knowledge" and standards of thought on the subject. The problem is with the paper chase, after the rat race, the functionality is lost for most.
The ego that develops for people who manage to get the papers,have tendency to create an aura of supremacy without necessary functionality.
This same happens to traders/dealers.
Many forgets that we are as good only as our last trade.
As we troddle along the trading career curve, i had seen many succeed to grasp the essence of trading skills , only to lose it to their ego. Know that just behind ego is complacency. Complacency to focus on the task at hand.
Like i always tell dealers, "if you think you had the next wave figured out, then your next trade will be fuxxed."

I was so enjoying paul1's post until i sensed his rigidity in the part when he tried to explain his MO. The the remarks of getting rich, gave me a sense of corkyness that translates to ego. I mean i not know if he is making millions, but if the focus of the trading activity was riches, then he has missed the point. Traders mostly focus on the market dance, and humility of err to stay alive.

But because of the lack in only the written word, it is hard for me to finger if that which i felt was accurate. Ai ya , such the lack in written communications.If such is true then i caution paul1 of his very big scorpions. But of course it might be paul's style of being candid and i had miss understood.


regards
  • #18,072
  • Edited 6:33pm Aug 15, 2010 3:08am | Edited 6:33pm
Quoting highlander2
Thats nuts! I dont know about trading tho? wouldn't he/she always be going short?? guess it could make money in a down trend though...
a diamond in the rogue.
seems , has sense for balance and equilibrium.
Better than some people?
Definately have capacity to focus.
And good reflexes and responds to change.

recruit bears into dealing rooms? No la they won't understand language. maybe humans with that attribute.

regards

http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?...=1576920829961
  • #18,073
  • Aug 15, 2010 5:02am Aug 15, 2010 5:02am
Quoting textor
Summer time in the north?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_5_AD9wXuY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VU9-uY_32uA

(surfing the new dollar wave...

Rgs,

Textor

P.S.: In the meanwhile low your (trading) expectations:

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/ba...of_choice.html
Beautiful feel.
Was one of my favourites.
Thanks, nice post.
regards
  • #18,074
  • Aug 15, 2010 5:06am Aug 15, 2010 5:06am
Quoting fti
looking for mechanical dances?
Must be the new age thingy.
Everyone below this post seem looking for robot codes?
I not sure, but can be dangerous.

regards
Thanks for the reply fti but I was merely answering the question of piphop and I agree it's pretty dangerous because your entire focus will be shifted to counting those Hip/lop instead of trading(dancing)...so in short, I'm your numbah 1 fan fti... but I like to dance on erotic songs "careless whisper" anyone?
  • #18,075
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:52am Aug 15, 2010 11:52am
Now on page 154 but it seems that tghe thread has come to an end as far as FTI;s education is concerned, all I have seen between page 100 and page 154 is a lot of people telling each other about their trades? Not interested in what they do, i am interested in what FTI has to contribute and add to what he has already tought me . My question is, is it worth reading any further? there are more than a 1000 pages to go?
  • #18,076
  • Aug 15, 2010 1:39pm Aug 15, 2010 1:39pm
Hi Friends,

found some statistics that will give you an idea about the size/traded volume of your broker. Please check out this link:

http://forexmagnates.com/top-forex-b...traded-volume/

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #18,077
  • Aug 15, 2010 2:21pm Aug 15, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Thanks Paul and Fana, I agree with both of your comments. I think the most difficult aspect that most people struggle with is facing up to the truth as simple as it may be. That's really what I'm trying to figure out... i.e. why people twist something simple and pure into something that is so distorted due to their own perceptions that it makes no sense to anyone, including themselves. The only way to get to that truth is by trial and error/resilience as you guys said... but really, why on earth do we first succeed at something (beginner's 'luck')...
I have seen this behaviour in a few things in life.
Applies to me too.
The most dangerous point in any learning experience in my opinion is not at the start of the learning curve.As i have witnessed so many times its as your confidence exceeds your ablity/experience.
eg:-
My children learn to ride bike, at first real cautious few scrapes fall off while hardly moving no big deal.
Confidence builds,start to go too fast misjudge bend dont brake correctly,
gets big cut and bruises,cries.
Now i get them back on bike as soon as injuries are sorted out.
hopefully this not happen too much (hopefully not blown account).
Lesson learned,now not as cautious as when learning at first but now know dangers an adjust confidence back to were it should be.
The lessons in this thread is mostly to do with ourselves.
In a job boss lets you know when you have not applied company rules and messed up.
In trading you got freedom,but you do need become boss.
I also find it hard to slap myself lol.
And i do sometimes stretch my rules.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #18,078
  • Aug 15, 2010 2:35pm Aug 15, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting fti
Hi khidir,
Yes, some people think I keep slamming the educated. The truth is , there are very intelligent people in the education and certification system. But unfortunately they are the minority.Mostly the function of certification was to acertain that people carrying it has"basic knowledge" and standards of thought on the subject. The problem is with the paper chase, after the rat race, the functionality is lost for most.
The ego that develops for people who manage to get the papers,have tendency to create an aura of supremacy without necessary...
Hello Fti ,
My intention were purely to point what i consider to be a simple entry point.
My comment at the end about speaking to us when he is rich,was purely light hearted humour,
Ok so am no comedian but that dont stop me trying lol.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #18,079
  • Aug 15, 2010 2:39pm Aug 15, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

found some statistics that will give you an idea about the size/traded volume of your broker. Please check out this link:

http://forexmagnates.com/top-forex-b...traded-volume/

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
I don't think this is 100% accurate, my broker Dukascopy is not even listed and they do a large volume. I also have an account with FXCM and frequently compare the two, and the liquidity on Dukascopy is way higher sometimes 10 times.
If only I knew then what I know now...
  • #18,080
  • Aug 15, 2010 3:05pm Aug 15, 2010 3:05pm
Quoting johnvr
Now on page 154 but it seems that tghe thread has come to an end as far as FTI;s education is concerned, all I have seen between page 100 and page 154 is a lot of people telling each other about their trades? Not interested in what they do, i am interested in what FTI has to contribute and add to what he has already tought me . My question is, is it worth reading any further? there are more than a 1000 pages to go?

Johnvr,

I believe it would be worth your time to continue.

Somewhere around page 200-400 there are chat logs between Fti and Leighsww that I found very helpful.

Good luck
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