Backing Trades Thru Charts | Page 134 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

How to determine thru code which chart window has focus 0 replies

Charts, Charts, Charts! 1 reply

Link Charts & Floating Charts 4 replies

Forex Daily Charts Scanning “price action in and between charts” 2 replies

Which charts to believe?? the best charts' source ? 19 replies

Attachments: Backing Trades Thru Charts
Exit Attachments

Backing Trades Thru Charts

  • #2,661
  • Aug 15, 2010 5:20am Aug 15, 2010 5:20am
Hi Coke,
i was reading the book on chart patterns by Bulkowski, and found out that broadening tops and bottoms have almost the same tendency to breakout to upside as well as downside. only a partial rise at the end predicts a downside breakout, and the partial decline at end predicts an upside breakout.

is this the only way of predicting the direction of breakout, or am i missing something?

also in this example given by you there was a partial decline and partial rise at the end, which makes it more confusing about predicting the direction of breakout.


GTA


Quoting TheLastCoke
NZD/USD Broadening top broke nicely #1432

Attachment
  • #2,662
  • Edited Aug 16, 2010 12:07am Aug 15, 2010 6:28am | Edited Aug 16, 2010 12:07am
I don't see a whole lot in terms of entries at the present, however 2 trade ideas stand out:

AUDJPY is forming a bear flag pattern with a 300ish pip pole. I'd be watching the LTL of the flag for signs of a break.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY6.jpg Size: 101 KB


My favorite however is the GBPNZD. It's at a previous top (resistance) almost @ the 61.8 fib AND at a descending channel top. A perfect short IMO.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD4.jpg Size: 114 KB
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #2,663
  • Aug 15, 2010 10:40am Aug 15, 2010 10:40am
Quoting profxtrader
I don't see a whole lot in terms of entries at the present, however 2 trade ideas stand out....
Thanks nice chart the 2nd one, will take that trade.
This here is my prediction on EU this week.

T1 as described in This post and this post as confirmation
T2 as described in This post
T3 is pullback to neckline.
T4 is 50% fib of up move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forex90.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #2,664
  • Aug 15, 2010 10:53am Aug 15, 2010 10:53am
Quoting gta5555
Hi Coke,

is this the only way of predicting the direction of breakout, or am i missing something?

GTA
Gta, Do not trade this pattern by itself. While it can break in any direction, it is also important to note other aspects in the whole picture

Where it has formed?
Is the pair been trending for day, weeks etc?
Is there any major Support/Resistance, above/below it?
Is there any major TL of Fib holding it?

Once you can define the whole scenario, it is gonna be much easier to determine its possible direction.

Coke.
  • #2,665
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:24am Aug 15, 2010 11:24am
hello..
affter 1 week looking for this thread..
i found it again..
last time i see it have been remove from interactive trading section..
this is nice thread...
Revesal Trader
  • #2,666
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:47am Aug 15, 2010 11:47am
Quoting mygoldenpips
hello..
this is nice thread...
...This is a great thread. One of the best in FxF imo.
  • #2,667
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:56am Aug 15, 2010 11:56am
Decision Time...Bounce or Break
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-08-15_1752.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #2,668
  • Aug 15, 2010 1:29pm Aug 15, 2010 1:29pm
Look what i found in the E/U on the daily and weekly charts zoomed out.
Could it be?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forex91.jpg Size: 85 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: forex92.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #2,669
  • Edited 1:56pm Aug 15, 2010 1:38pm | Edited 1:56pm
Opposite longer term scenario EU
Although the two can be combined, first my first charts target and then this.

According to this scenario the USD will become worth more then the euro.
I don't think so... but who knows.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forex93.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #2,670
  • Edited 2:29pm Aug 15, 2010 1:52pm | Edited 2:29pm
Omg!!!
EU might be in the middle of a flag before the USD falls..?
I like this scenario very much... because of technicals of course.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forex94.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #2,671
  • Aug 15, 2010 1:59pm Aug 15, 2010 1:59pm
Eur/nzd

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd d.gif Size: 19 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd h4.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,672
  • Aug 15, 2010 2:00pm Aug 15, 2010 2:00pm
ProFXtrader,

Why do you always have to come around shorting the gbpnzd right when I'm finally making some profit on the long side?

Anyways, the yellow UTL I have drawn was strongly rejected Friday, and I am also looking at a channel, but we're a not there yet. The SR might give you you bounce, and I admit you're a better trader than I, but here's a different look:

http://i34.tinypic.com/4j191v.png
  • #2,673
  • Edited 2:36pm Aug 15, 2010 2:22pm | Edited 2:36pm
Quoting longshot_nl;
Omg!!!
EU might be in the middle of a flag before the USD falls..?
This is the scenario I favor, but not the probability that retrace will come back fully to the 100% line. There are a number of places Bullish trend can resume before that. I am mindful that last weeks selling has stopped just below the 38.2 area, but given the size of the weekly bar and overall level of downward momentum, right now I favor somewhere between the 61.8(edit) and the 80.9.

Or, if the Daily TL is respected this week rather than broken, a double top is not out of the question. Long bars always favor continuation though.
  • #2,674
  • Aug 15, 2010 3:18pm Aug 15, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting stevefx
This is the scenario I favor, but not the probability that retrace will come back fully to the 100% line. There are a number of places Bullish trend can resume before that. I am mindful that last weeks selling has stopped just below the 38.2 area, but given the size of the weekly bar and overall level of downward momentum, right now I favor somewhere between the 61.8(edit) and the 80.9.

Or, if the Daily TL is respected this week rather than broken, a double top is not out of the question. Long bars always favor continuation though.
I favor this scenario too.
I have the feeling it will go down again to 1.19 / 1.20 because this double bottom happened before. But i don't trade on feeling.
So i trade day by day, week by week, keeping this in mind.
I will load up longs on an opportunity to go long close to 1.19.
I probably won't somewhere in between depending on the situation of course.
  • #2,675
  • Edited 4:01pm Aug 15, 2010 3:30pm | Edited 4:01pm
Bearish on AU this week.
Wanted to add possible bounce point at 8860.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auh4.png Size: 668 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: auh44.png Size: 703 KB
  • #2,676
  • Aug 15, 2010 5:10pm Aug 15, 2010 5:10pm
I found this too.. veeeery interesting..
This bounce with the white line is now...
If it wants to break, its got to make a H&S.. thats what i think.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forex95.jpg Size: 81 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: forex96.jpg Size: 100 KB
  • #2,677
  • Aug 15, 2010 6:42pm Aug 15, 2010 6:42pm
USD/CHF Possible Round Bottom formation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf h42.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #2,678
  • Aug 15, 2010 7:57pm Aug 15, 2010 7:57pm
Can't put up a chart right now, I'm at work....gbpcad rising wedge just broke to the downside and I'm in.
  • #2,679
  • Aug 15, 2010 8:01pm Aug 15, 2010 8:01pm
Quoting Low
Can't put up a chart right now, I'm at work....gbpcad rising wedge just broke to the downside and I'm in.
GBP/CAD My view

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #2,680
  • Aug 15, 2010 8:33pm Aug 15, 2010 8:33pm
Quoting david4u
thanks TLC for your service, this is one of your templates
perfect entry !
and I am up 96 pips at this point
Update, you should be around +150 pips right now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.gif Size: 18 KB
1 trader viewing now