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  • #13,541
  • Aug 13, 2010 7:53am Aug 13, 2010 7:53am
Quoting glasso
Big Boss: We have comfirmation wave up after June candle closed above Doji May candle.
Boss: Uptrend with HL-HH after Price broke LH on chart.
Worker: Uptrend with HL-HH. We see Doji at 50 FiB.
My plan: Long AUDUSD 10pips above Doji and SL below
Hi Glasso!We don't have a comfirmation wave up after June candle closed above doji candle.The comfirmations is only when the price closes above April candle,untill then the May candle is controlling candle.Thanks.
My humble opinion.
  • #13,542
  • Aug 13, 2010 8:44am Aug 13, 2010 8:44am
I am only putting an observation forward on Fibonacci Retracements & Extentions I and am not going into the maths of this as the golden rule stands universally.

However in trading I think it is quoted/relied upon far too much. Read anything on Elliot Wave and you will see my point or listen to any analyst talk and they mention it like the holly grail.

My view is that if price has moved in one direction it has roughly three points where it can turn the other way, the Fibonnaci retracements would be 38.2%, 50% & 61.8 or keep going until it hits a fibonnaci number or a moving average and everyone thinks its a form of magic. If this does not happen then the boys from Elliot Wave and company will say you put the fibonnaci in the wrong place or timeframe.

If I was to guess three times where the direction would change I would be right the first 40% of the time, If I get that wrong I would guess the second time and be right 50% of the time. My last guess would be right about 60% of the time.

So really the 50% retracement means tossing a coin and getting 50/50 odds of calling it right. Why would I want to rely on such odds they do not seem too great to me! I know the price can either go up or down how does that help me?

Alas Strat you have got me thinking about Fibonacci after you have made the most sense anyone has ever made about dumping indicators. If you keep placing these Fibs enough times you are bound to get a few of them to fit into your plan?

I would say the golden rule for me now is PA and may use Fibonacci to help me order in an Italian restaurant.

A contrarian veiw and just wondered how many people get it right using Fibonacci when looking for confluence? Use with caution especially at the 50% level.
  • #13,543
  • Aug 13, 2010 9:53am Aug 13, 2010 9:53am
Quoting kalvind
Ok, this is a first for me to test what I have learnt on this thread so far after many many hours of reading this thread.

Big Boss: A series of LL, price is below 20ema and acting as resistance. It is sandwiched between the 20ema and 50sma. The SR line drawn from way back in Febraury 1993 this may act as current resistance if it does then the Price may fall to the 50sma to make a further LL.

Boss: A further series of LL and LH, the 20ema is acting as resistance and the angle is pointing to 4 o'clock. The 50sma direction is flat but slightly...
Hi Kalvind,

Shorting is too late if you did not have any position on already. You will short right into Boss support by the time you have PA confirmed.

FIBO is just another tools in the box, if it lines up with SR and MA and PA
  • #13,544
  • Aug 13, 2010 10:07am Aug 13, 2010 10:07am
Quoting patrick25
Hi Kalvind,

Shorting is too late if you did not have any position on already. You will short right into Boss support by the time you have PA confirmed.

FIBO is just another tools in the box, if it lines up with SR and MA and PA
Hi Patrick25,

I would expect it to hit Boss support but in doing so would have made another LL. I would wait for a retrace and see if an attempt is made to break the Boss support for another LL and PA hold below this support which would become resistance. The Big Boss 20ema is turning down maybe giving a signal but like always will have to wait for a confirmation.

Thanks for your comment.
  • #13,545
  • Aug 13, 2010 10:45am Aug 13, 2010 10:45am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13330

The Lancaster has now successfully circum-navigated the mountain and after a minor diversion to pickup more crew at latitude 138 is now back on course.

The spitfire and Hunter have fallen back in line formation and we are on target for the final destination at latitude 1.000 where all ordinance will be unloaded.

  • #13,546
  • Aug 13, 2010 9:21pm Aug 13, 2010 9:21pm
Thanks kalvind and soso and Money magnet

Quoting kalvind

Boss: This has not closed yet but at the moment it is showing a BEEB which to me is a signal to the worker stop going up? A HH has been made but that could be it? If you have shown the 50sma(in blue) then this will have shown as support which could support your trade.
Boss has closed near Support 0.8840ish and showed BEEB.

Quoting soso
Good points kalvind!

glasso, please put both MAs on your chart and observe how price reacts to both of them. Do not underestimate their power. I used to understimate it until Strat kindly put me back on track. Thanks Strat!
Soso, Your experience is very helpful. I'll put both MAs on my chart to analysis.
  • #13,547
  • Aug 14, 2010 11:13am Aug 14, 2010 11:13am
Quoting stewrigh
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13330

The Lancaster has now successfully circum-navigated the mountain and after a minor diversion to pickup more crew at latitude 138 is now back on course.

The spitfire and Hunter have fallen back in line formation and we are on target for the final destination at latitude 1.000 where all ordinance will be unloaded.

Shivers down my back, Dambusters March playing and Commander Guy Gibson given the all clear to start his bombing run!

Watch out for heavy flak on the dam walls

Where is Danny boy when you need him!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,548
  • Aug 14, 2010 5:07pm Aug 14, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting stewrigh
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13330

The Lancaster has now successfully circum-navigated the mountain and after a minor diversion to pickup more crew at latitude 138 is now back on course.

The spitfire and Hunter have fallen back in line formation and we are on target for the final destination at latitude 1.000 where all ordinance will be unloaded.

My target was 140 when it was trading at 133. It went to 139.25 but never made it to 140, but I don't want to go short as it is going against SNB.
Is there any reason you think it will go down to parity?
  • #13,549
  • Aug 14, 2010 5:16pm Aug 14, 2010 5:16pm
Watch out for PA near TL/FIB 38.2/R. I am still bullish for the pair
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd13082010.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #13,550
  • Aug 14, 2010 5:20pm Aug 14, 2010 5:20pm
Same as GBPUSD I am still bullish. It might will come down to 126.50 where i have confluence of short & long term fib along with S & short term TL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,551
  • Aug 15, 2010 1:09am Aug 15, 2010 1:09am
Okay.. I know I've only completed 100 out of 900 pages on this thread. I just thought I'd ask your opinion on this particular trade cause it sort of "jumped" at me. Any comments/criticisms would definitely help in gauging how much I understand the method.

NZD/USD:

Big Boss: Failed 8 times to penetrate above the 0.7270 level.

http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/2888/nzdusdm.jpg

Boss: Managed to close above the downtrend line last week but sellers took it down and closed this week below the 20 and 50.

http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/8828/nzusdw.jpg

Worker: Tried to go past my level of resistance of 0.7143 on Friday but failed and created a shooting star. Rejected by the 20 and also closed below 50.

http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/4323/nzusdd.jpg

Trade:

Go short 10 pips below the shooting star @ 0.7040. Stop loss = 10 pips above high of shooting star @ 0.7190.

Risk = 150 pips

Next level of support = 0.7000 and 0.6800.

Reward 1st TP: 40pips
Reward 2nd TP: 240 pips.

Plan:

With equity of $1,000, I can only trade 2 contracts (using 3% risk = $30/150pips/$0.1 per pip). Unload 1 contract at 0.7000 and another at 0.6800.

Concerns:

That I'm selling into support. Perhaps I should wait for PA after a close below 0.7000 level? Or perhaps a close below the uptrendline on the Boss?

Again, any comments are greatly appreciated!

Regards.
  • #13,552
  • Aug 15, 2010 1:41am Aug 15, 2010 1:41am
Quoting simpleman
Watch out for PA near TL/FIB 38.2/R. I am still bullish for the pair
Hi simpleman,

GBPUSD - Even thought this pair is showing us a move up currently retracing, what tells me that it might not stop going down is that last week on my data it formed BEOB on Boss and Worker shows us Thursdays bar trying to go up above Boss's 50 and getting strongly rejected and closing below Worker 20. Friday was not different trying to make a move up and again strongly rejected by the Boss 50 and Worker 20 closing below them.
This just might be up to move down for a HL on Boss or maybe even up for new Lows below 1.4200.
If this could be the case we should be easily identify and the start of new week seeing how those MA's will resist price further.
  • #13,553
  • Aug 15, 2010 4:14am Aug 15, 2010 4:14am
Concerns:

This is one for me.

That I'm selling into support. Perhaps I should wait for PA after a close below 0.7000 level? Or perhaps a close below the uptrendline on the Boss?

Again, any comments are greatly appreciated!

Regards.[/quote]

There is one for me.
  • #13,554
  • Aug 15, 2010 4:22am Aug 15, 2010 4:22am
Quoting pahlawan
Okay.. I know I've only completed 100 out of 900 pages on this thread. I just thought I'd ask your opinion on this particular trade cause it sort of "jumped" at me. Any comments/criticisms would definitely help in gauging how much I understand the method.

NZD/USD:

Big Boss: Failed 8 times to penetrate above the 0.7270 level.

http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/2888/nzdusdm.jpg

Boss: Managed to close above the downtrend line last week but sellers took it down and closed this week below the 20 and 50.

http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/8828/nzusdw.jpg...
Hi pahlawan!In daily,that is not a shooting star(SS).SS is at swing high(LH,HH).that is an inverted hammer.We don't trade it,but is very good,because it give us a lot of informations.Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ss.gif Size: 25 KB
My humble opinion.
  • #13,555
  • Aug 15, 2010 6:06am Aug 15, 2010 6:06am
Quoting kaunasny
Hi simpleman,

GBPUSD - Even thought this pair is showing us a move up currently retracing, what tells me that it might not stop going down is that last week on my data it formed BEOB on Boss and Worker shows us Thursdays bar trying to go up above Boss's 50 and getting strongly rejected and closing below Worker 20. Friday was not different trying to make a move up and again strongly rejected by the Boss 50 and Worker 20 closing below them.
This just might be up to move down for a HL on Boss or maybe even up for new Lows below 1.4200.
If this...

Yes, quite possible it will keep going down as it has reversed at 61.8 which is concern for me, but we will see what happens.
  • #13,556
  • Aug 15, 2010 8:07am Aug 15, 2010 8:07am
Quoting strat
Shivers down my back, Dambusters March playing and Commander Guy Gibson given the all clear to start his bombing run!

Watch out for heavy flak on the dam walls

Where is Danny boy when you need him!
Bit confused if this is in reference to eurchf, I thought it was a pair you did not trade due to the SNB intervention? Is this true for all chf pairs or just specific ones.
Thanks, Kalvin
  • #13,557
  • Aug 15, 2010 8:23am Aug 15, 2010 8:23am
Quoting kalvind
Bit confused if this is in reference to eurchf, I thought it was a pair you did not trade due to the SNB intervention? Is this true for all chf pairs or just specific ones.
Thanks, Kalvin
Just continuing the story from rear gunner stewrigh, that's all.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,558
  • Aug 15, 2010 10:52am Aug 15, 2010 10:52am
Quoting simpleman
My target was 140 when it was trading at 133. It went to 139.25 but never made it to 140, but I don't want to go short as it is going against SNB.
Is there any reason you think it will go down to parity?
Hi S,

Re the SNB - as I mentioned before - the SNB stopped intervening in the markets after they already lost a shedload of money, so I don't think its an issue any more, but who knows??.

Will it go to parity - I wish - but I don't know or even think it will( I try not to think when I'm trading - just follow the chart). As Dr Joe would say - if its going down I sell until it stops going down.

What I do know/believe, however, is that the long term trend is and has beeen down for a long time, I'm just going along for the ride lol..
  • #13,559
  • Aug 15, 2010 5:52pm Aug 15, 2010 5:52pm
Quoting pahlawan
Okay.. I know I've only completed 100 out of 900 pages on this thread. I just thought I'd ask your opinion on this particular trade cause it sort of "jumped" at me. Any comments/criticisms would definitely help in gauging how much I understand the method.

NZD/USD:

Big Boss: Failed 8 times to penetrate above the 0.7270 level.

http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/2888/nzdusdm.jpg

Boss: Managed to close above the downtrend line last week but sellers took it down and closed this week below the 20 and 50.

http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/8828/nzusdw.jpg

Worker:...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) On my chart (IBFX) there is very strong S at 0.7045 across all time frames. Do you want to short into that S?

2) The daily bar is definitely NOT a SS. By definition a SS occurs at the TOP of an up-trending series of bars where the SS will make a swing high.

If you are going to apply Strat's basic PASR method you need valid PA and also valid SR levels.

3) You are willing to risk 3% of your account = $30 (Strat recommends risking not more than 2%, or more wisely 1%).

You can only trade micro-lots (0.01 of a standard lot) where 1 pip = USD 0.10, i.e. 10 cents per pip.

Account risk/trade risk (150 pips x pip value/micro lot = 0.10) = 30/15=total 2 micro-lots.

Not sure if this is your plan. Do you intend to open 2 positions, each of 1 micro-lot?

If this is your intention, you will be risking 3% of your account balance?

Hope this will help your decision making.

Roger
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd daily 16 august.jpg Size: 126 KB
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #13,560
  • Aug 15, 2010 8:32pm Aug 15, 2010 8:32pm
Thank you Money Magnet and Igmal for your comments!

And also thank you No1Optimist aka Roger I might have to read further to understand how to set valid S/R levels. And yes I did intend to trade 2 microlots.

Regards
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