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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #2,581
  • Edited 3:16pm Aug 12, 2010 3:14pm | Edited 3:16pm
Scotty and other Big Dogs,

Here is where trade expectations mean so much.

In all honesty, I got to it a little late. My entry turned out to be 5 pips above the box. At +15 I thought I should get out since my original target was 20, but I entered 5 late.

I grabbed the 15 and the market wandered up only two or three more pips.

Sure, I was a little lucky. However, over time I am noticing that 15 pips has about an 80% win rate. I am thinking of increasing my units/lots and just keeping the regular 15 pip target.

I know, Scotty and Mohamed, you guys are doing well with somewhat bigger targets.

Either way, I think we can argue that the Big Dog is a working strategy.

BY THE WAY, are any of you guys also trading a London breakout successfully? What parameters?

Regards, Forest
  • #2,582
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:30pm Aug 12, 2010 3:30pm
Forest,

Good catch! Anything with positive pips is a win in my book.

To answer your question, I am also trading the same strategy on GBP/USD at UK open. Same strategy. Box built between 04:00 - 06:00GMT. Have had no losses there this week. Made 34 pips last night (so it helped cover my loss today).

I have also been playing various news events with the same strategy but I don't post those here since I don't want to go off-topic.

The NEWYORKBOX indicator and template which can be found in the download section of this thread is what I am using to calculate my trades. Works awesome. If this continues to do well, I'd like to get that guy a drink!

GLTA!

ScottyB

Quoting Forest-Sea
BY THE WAY, are any of you guys also trading a London breakout successfully? What parameters?

Regards, Forest
  • #2,583
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:58pm Aug 12, 2010 3:58pm
Hi

Forest, 30 pips TP, and box size SL is the most profitable on long term (as my back test told me).

About London breakout I guess its 00:00 01:00 GMT breakout, I have made a quick back test and got bad results for me.

ScottyB, could you give me more details about yours that you said about:
(I am also trading the same strategy on GBP/USD at UK open. Same strategy. Box built between 04:00 - 06:00GMT.
If its not boring .. you are not trading correctly
  • #2,584
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:00pm Aug 12, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting ibthescottyb
I am also trading the same strategy on GBP/USD at UK open. Same strategy. Box built between 04:00 - 06:00GMT. Have had no losses there this week.
Now I know what I will be doing from 04-06 GMT. This would be 05-07 summer time in London, a little earlier than the NY box of 07-09 NY time. Just interested in your choice of times Scotty. Earlier is better here?

Thanks, Scotty, for your info.

Forest


PS -- How about you Mohamed? Doing any London breakout work?
  • #2,585
  • Edited 4:35pm Aug 12, 2010 4:30pm | Edited 4:35pm
Here is the box for today {Thursday}.

You can grab the mq4 for the box [NEWYORKBOX] as Scotty described a couple of posts back.

Actually, this picture is a great teaching tool.

I am most interested in the first impulse of price up or down from the box. If you wait too long something bad can happen.

Please note these were pre-set profit targets at increments of 15. You can adjust the box for different outcomes, say Mohamed's +30 TP.

Forest
Attached Image
  • #2,586
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:35pm Aug 12, 2010 4:35pm
That Time frame works for me. It is before the actual London open. But I use the theory of that Forex "brokers" as well as banks and folks like us sitting in their home can start as early as 8am local time. So that is what I look for.

Example. NYSE opens at 9:30am US Eastern Time. However, you see large volume picking up starting at 8am US Eastern Time in Forex.

Also. to be honest, I am not that familiar with the GBP market during it's hours which are nighttime for me and I should be sleeping. But, somewhere online I saw the idea of a 4-6GMT box setup similar to this Big Dog and did some backtesting, then forward testing. And now I am trading it live with good luck.

4-6GMT is the slow time as Asia shuts down for the day and London is just waking up and starting their day. So it made logical sense to me to box that time.

I use the same order structure as I do with Big Dog.

At 06:01 GMT I want the following in place.

2 Pending BUY Orders at top of channel +3 pips.
Both have SL = opposite of channel and 3 pips.

Order #1 has 22 pip TP and 15 pip TS (still debating on 20 TS and may try tonight)

Order #2 has 80 pip TP and 15 pip TS. (same debate on 20).

I also place two pending Sell orders with same setup.

I make sure all pending orders if not filled have an expiration date of 2 hours later or 08:00GMT. I do this because if an order isnt entered by that time than we are no longer dealing with a breakout situation and anything can happen.

Once the pending orders are in place. I go to bed since I have to be up in 6 hours to setup the big dog. So far all this week, I have woken up with profit. So it's working this week. Next week, who knows? But since this thread and threads like it have been going on for years, this seems to be the most stable strategy I have found yet.

I'm open to all thoughts and ideas.

GLTA!

ScottyB
  • #2,587
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:53pm Aug 12, 2010 4:53pm
hi Mates!

i have test this strategy in tokyo open and it works well, to well i may say, but only in eur/jpy
passion and discipline
  • #2,588
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:09pm Aug 12, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting rohule
hi Mates!

i have test this strategy in tokyo open and it works well, to well i may say, but only in eur/jpy

Mucho Gusto!

What are the hours you run your box . . . the two hours prior to Tokyo or even earlier. You do often get some action as Tokyo opens up.

Forest
  • #2,589
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:36pm Aug 12, 2010 5:36pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
Mucho Gusto!

What are the hours you run your box . . . the two hours prior to Tokyo or even earlier. You do often get some action as Tokyo opens up.

Forest
hi Forest, and nice to meet you to, you can set the box one hour before, i think its better to look up in the 1h chart and set the box 3 pips above, below the shadows of the candle.
one hour before the open its enough(IMHO)
by the way Tokyo will open in 1 and a half hour, have a good one and take care!
passion and discipline
  • #2,590
  • Aug 12, 2010 9:20pm Aug 12, 2010 9:20pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
Scotty and other Big Dogs,

Here is where trade expectations mean so much.

In all honesty, I got to it a little late. My entry turned out to be 5 pips above the box. At +15 I thought I should get out since my original target was 20, but I entered 5 late.

I grabbed the 15 and the market wandered up only two or three more pips.

Sure, I was a little lucky. However, over time I am noticing that 15 pips has about an 80% win rate. I am thinking of increasing my units/lots and just keeping the regular 15 pip target.

I know, Scotty and Mohamed,...
Good for you Forest! Yes I believe as you do that 15 gets hit quite often. I personally shoot for anywher from 10-30, and have as high as 231 pips once (just once!) by mistake or luck or whatever. This system performs wonderfully in a trending market, not so well otherwise. Determine the trend as best as you can (tired of hearing that) and shoot for your 15 pips in that direction. That is how I used to play it, and did well. However, if you increase your lots in my opinion only, be very carefull with your stops.

I trade .1 lot or maybe .2 lots if I am feeling lucky, and grew my account 75% in two months (demo of course) trading only the eur/usd. Then as a rank amateur with rampant emotions lost all of it in a matter of days by not following proper money management. My fault, not the trading approach.

Currently, I am not trading the 7-9 TF, but am giving it a whirl with an expanded box (6 hours) from 3pm-9pm (pacific time) which I think is 6pm-12am NY time. Too early to post any results as I have just started up again after taking a couple months off the FOREX treadmill.

Good luck guys!
  • #2,591
  • Aug 13, 2010 11:18am Aug 13, 2010 11:18am
So I tried this system today. My results:

GBP/USD = -36 Pips
EUR/USD = -44 Pips
USD/CAD = +12 Pips
USD/CHF = -32 Pips
AUD/USD = -31 Pips
NZD/USD = -25 Pips
=================
-156 Pips

Bad day?
  • #2,592
  • Aug 13, 2010 2:03pm Aug 13, 2010 2:03pm
Yep, that would be a bad day. I am currently still in my GBP/USD trade. So I'm not sure what kind of day it is yet for me. Not looking too promising, but as they say...Some Will, Some Won't, So What...Next.

From what I have read, this strategy and time frame is best used on the GBP/USD only. But, I am looking at other pairs and box setup times.

GLTA!

ScottyB
  • #2,593
  • Aug 13, 2010 3:27pm Aug 13, 2010 3:27pm
Well, I tried the overnight (for me) London trade for the first time with the straddle on Scotty's London breakout. Details a few posts back.

As often happens, I think, my first trade initiated and went just a handful of pips -- no where near 15 or more to any TP point. Reversed, of course, and screamed through the box going up [I'm sleeping now in the GMT -8] hit the buy at the top of the box and quickly went on the my lone TP point. Net . . . about zero, no gain or loss. Interesting, though.

It does appear that second move on London is often the principle one. Not much fun for me to get up at 2 or 3 in the am to check it out, though. Plenty of action here, just how to be on the correct side.

Involved in other things and did not enter the Big Dog in NY today. Looks like a break down from the box was good, though.

Take care all. Until Monday.

Forest
  • #2,594
  • Aug 13, 2010 4:06pm Aug 13, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
Well, I tried the overnight (for me) London trade for the first time with the straddle on Scotty's London breakout. Details a few posts back.

As often happens, I think, my first trade initiated and went just a handful of pips -- no where near 15 or more to any TP point. Reversed, of course, and screamed through the box going up [I'm sleeping now in the GMT -8] hit the buy at the top of the box and quickly went on the my lone TP point. Net . . . about zero, no gain or loss. Interesting, though.

It does appear that second move on London...

Same here Forest. Maybe Friday the 13th had something to do with it. LOL. Had a flat day on the Big Dog, my trades are still open going into the weekend...sigh. We will see what happens after the weekend.

Have a great weekend all!

ScottyB
  • #2,595
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:02pm Aug 14, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting binh828
So I tried this system today. My results:

GBP/USD = -36 Pips
EUR/USD = -44 Pips
USD/CAD = +12 Pips
USD/CHF = -32 Pips
AUD/USD = -31 Pips
NZD/USD = -25 Pips
=================
-156 Pips

Bad day?
Binh, ah yes it was not a good first day for you with this system. Can I make a few suggestions? They may help, or not, take them as you will.

- try to specialize in one pair, this way you won't be spread too thin. Plus after a while, you will become better at predicting their movement which is beneficial for a "trending system" like this one. I trade only the EUR/USD, I think most trade GBP/USD. Either one is good.
- try to trade with the trend, do a top down analysis starting with the weekly, daily, 4, and 1 hour TF's, use fractals to help determine the highs and lows if you have trouble with this. Be aware of S&R.
- if you are not fairly sure of the trend, I wouldn't trade.
- to be successful with this system you don't need to place orders on both ends of the box if you don't want too, Why place a buy when the market is selling? This may help from being whipsawed and from being taken out on both ends.
- always use a stop
- don't risk more than 1-2% of your account balance per trading session
- baby sit your trades if you can, this will protect you from reversals which seem to happen all of the time, only to erase all of you gain
- always protect your profit, a break even is good, any gain is better, and a loss is bad. No need to have a loss unless you are stopped out.
- don't be afraid to try a different TF for your box. Two people trading the same pair can have drastically different results.

You probably know all of that, but I tend to spout off. There may be new people out there getting ready to try this method, maybe my comments will be food for thought for them.

I traded this system for months, (8-10 NYT) and did well. I know it works. Now I am trying again with a modified box (6 hours) preceding the London Session, following the above rules. Seems like that may work too.

8/12 +53
8/13 +51

My goal is 10-30 pips per day. I'll post a chart if I remeber how.
  • #2,596
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:37pm Aug 14, 2010 4:37pm
Here is a copy of my last trade. I keep a copy of all trades with notes as a reference and learning tool. You can see the overall market trend is down, this is why I say you dont HAVE to place on both ends. I did because I think the euro is getting ready for a decent reversal. If you (I) didn't babysit the order, I would have been stopped for a loss on the buy, but since I checked before I went to bed, I saw it was stalling . . . moved SL to 1 pip above break even, and took half of the profit.

Since the overall market was down, the sell was triggered while sleeping and proved to be a nice win.

I still think the euro is getting ready to go long for a run, but until then I will try to play both short and longer trends . . . keeping an eye out for support and resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Aug. 14 14.10.jpg Size: 166 KB
  • #2,597
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:42pm Aug 14, 2010 4:42pm
hello everyone, ia want to show you an advisor expert that really works. i want to know what you think about it. does anyone have an alternative expert. show me.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Expert advisior.zip   3 KB | 1,136 downloads
  • #2,598
  • Aug 14, 2010 5:54pm Aug 14, 2010 5:54pm
I am a new trader also, feel free to throw those tidbits of knowledge out there. It's always a good thing to pickup a tip now and then.

Question, what indicators are you using? I like the screenshot. Currently I just started with the Trend All Indicator. What do you think if it? Do you think it would work well with this system?

Thanks and GLTA!

ScottyB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Trend_all_period_en.mq4   9 KB | 722 downloads
  • #2,599
  • Aug 14, 2010 7:27pm Aug 14, 2010 7:27pm
please keep "spout[ing]" off. it seems like the more we learn the less we know. especially for us noobs...your description is music to our ears (well mine at atleast). thank you.

Quoting slc12312
Here is a copy of my last trade. I keep a copy of all trades with notes as a reference and learning tool. You can see the overall market trend is down, this is why I say you dont HAVE to place on both ends. I did because I think the euro is getting ready for a decent reversal. If you (I) didn't babysit the order, I would have been stopped for a loss on the buy, but since I checked before I went to bed, I saw it was stalling . . . moved SL to 1 pip above break even, and took half of the profit.

Since the overall market was down, the sell was triggered...
  • #2,600
  • Aug 14, 2010 9:05pm Aug 14, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting ibthescottyb
Question, what indicators are you using? I like the screenshot. Currently I just started with the Trend All Indicator. What do you think if it? Do you think it would work well with this system?

Thanks and GLTA!

ScottyB
I havn't heard of that indicator. I'll check it out . . . do you use it on all TF's? And most importantly, is it accurate. I'll take a look.

The only other indicator I use are stoch's, I sometimes use MACD, but lately have taken it off the chart. I guess these are indicators too, but all of those lines on the chart I posted are moving averages. I use a set of faster moving averages and slower moving averages. These are what I use to determine the strength of the trend. As far as determining the trend, I just check out the highs and lows (with or wthout fractals). Fractals just show you the swing highs and lows.

Stoch's are used only prior to placing orders and to determine over and under sold momentum. It is hard for me to really explain. Having only watched one pair for the past year, you kind of get a sixth sense of how price action will react in relation to the stoch's.

Lastly i try to use support and resistance to predict where the market might have a reaction. If you look at the weekly on the eur/usd you will see price is heading into an area of resistance for a downtrend. this is why I am looking for a potential buy since the daily stoch is pretty low.

But I am NO expert by many means, just still learning too. And I still have not put real money where my mouth is. So anyway, hope I can help us all perfect this.
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