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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,221
  • Aug 8, 2010 12:40pm Aug 8, 2010 12:40pm
Quoting shahab8b
A/U is getting intense
Sahab8b i see many guys from FF posted that wedge but i still think AUD have power to go 0.9300 and maybe more...


I have buy from 0.9100 with TP 0.9300 this is my view >


We broke main Res for me on H4 also on Daily we formed good 1-2-3 Formation with clear retrace point on 61.8 Fibo and i expext that we can go UP to 0.9300 or more , we will see my plan is to load shorts from 0.9300 if we see that price,also another confirmation is 1-2 Hilo formation,also hilo is very good and looks very strong for Up side...


Cheers and happy piping


Picture >
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #4,222
  • Aug 8, 2010 7:02pm Aug 8, 2010 7:02pm
Quoting MarcVUM
What do you think Shahab? This is using a 13 week COT index.
Hi Marc,

I think we need to wait and see whether the whole down move has been a correction in A/U N/U & Indicies or they are correcting their down move by this upward move. I like the USD bullish bias but looking at the charts and COT it seems USD bearish cycle might continue further. The most interesting COT are E/U and G/U both have been moving closer to zero. It means we may see net long Cable and Euro in the next report, if that happens-which is probable considering the chance of more QE program from the Fed- it's better to have a long term bearish USD bias.

As for A/U, it's overbought, and COT index is extreme, I prefer short at this level.
  • #4,223
  • Aug 8, 2010 7:10pm Aug 8, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Sahab8b i see many guys from FF posted that wedge but i still think AUD have power to go 0.9300 and maybe more...


I have buy from 0.9100 with TP...
Hi there,

I dont agree with what you are saying. It's uptrend but it's overbought and overextended, I see no technical reason to go long at this level, RRR is good for short. It will show us a correction sooner than later.

On a separate note, I see your posts on Saxon's thread. Making fun of a good trader posting fib levels on E/U. I had to say that , he drew the fibs' right and I saw your fibs too, yours was also right. You can draw more than one fib on a chart, depends on your TF and the Swings you are looking at.
  • #4,224
  • Aug 8, 2010 8:47pm Aug 8, 2010 8:47pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi there,

I dont agree with what you are saying. It's uptrend but it's overbought and overextended, I see no technical reason to go long at this level, RRR is good for short. It will show us a correction sooner than later.

On a separate note, I see your posts on Saxon's thread. Making fun of a good trader posting fib levels on E/U. I had to say that , he drew the fibs' right and I saw your fibs too, yours was also right. You can draw more than one fib on a chart, depends on your TF and the Swings you are looking at.
Ok sahab8b that is your view,for me there is no overextended also extended is relative thing and that is all about trades view i work pure price action and i dont see ne res till 0.9300 we will see..

For Fib levels i said,
My post are my opiinions and i can said for me that is totaly wrong,that isnt in general becouse you can draw fibo from every point you want wich is good for you...Point is my own posts are always my own opinions...


Cheers


Happy piping
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #4,225
  • Aug 10, 2010 6:07am Aug 10, 2010 6:07am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Marc,

I think we need to wait and see whether the whole down move has been a correction in A/U N/U & Indicies or they are correcting their down move by this upward move. I like the USD bullish bias but looking at the charts and COT it seems USD bearish cycle might continue further. The most interesting COT are E/U and G/U both have been moving closer to zero. It means we may see net long Cable and Euro in the next report, if that happens-which is probable considering the chance of more QE program from the Fed- it's better to have a long term...
Hi Shahab8b, Could you clarify something for me since im new to COT Analysis. You mentioned that Euro and Cable are moving closer to 0 which would result in net long positions - Does'nt this mean that Euro and Cable will start to fall against the Dollar ?

I thought that if net positions are long then its an indication that price will fall since everybody is already long. Is this correct ?

Dan
  • #4,226
  • Edited 9:30am Aug 10, 2010 7:35am | Edited 9:30am
USDCAD240
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  • #4,227
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:41am Aug 10, 2010 8:41am
NZDUSD240
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/hq...wl9g4j0736.gif
  • #4,228
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:10pm Aug 10, 2010 8:10pm
http://i37.tinypic.com/s45agw.png
  • #4,229
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:01pm Aug 10, 2010 10:01pm
EURCAD60
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  • #4,230
  • Edited 10:14am Aug 11, 2010 9:09am | Edited 10:14am
Quoting BlackStone
USDCAD240
Great call Blackstone
  • #4,231
  • Aug 11, 2010 11:24am Aug 11, 2010 11:24am
Quoting Malinbeg
Great call Blackstone
you're welcome
  • #4,232
  • Aug 11, 2010 11:26am Aug 11, 2010 11:26am
EURUSD60
maybe
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/le...no5y8egx7i.gif
  • #4,233
  • Edited 5:18pm Aug 11, 2010 5:04pm | Edited 5:18pm
Quoting BlackStone
EURCAD60
What exactly is this bit of voodoo magic tool anyway? Gartley?

This is in hindsight but looks to be a bearish pattern on oil (WTI)? The B to C is not the correct length but X to D hits the 78 fib.


Managed to scrape through 236 pips on a GU short in last 2 days - worked out nicely.
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  • #4,234
  • Aug 11, 2010 5:57pm Aug 11, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting BlackStone
EURUSD60
maybe

Hi there,

What has happened to your victory user name? no problem for me, but dont switch user name, you are making everyone confused.

as E/U, be careful , the fall that I've been waiting for is in it's early stage, go with the trend, which is USD strength imo
  • #4,235
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:04pm Aug 11, 2010 6:04pm
Hi Low,

Sorry for my belated response, I've been a bit busy with school work, submitting my project proposal and other stuff.I'm more USD bullish and will trade on that direction, the only exception is U/J, which I think will visit 80 eventually to complete the bearish cycle.
  • #4,236
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:11pm Aug 11, 2010 6:11pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Low,

Sorry for my belated response, I've been a bit busy with school work, submitting my project proposal and other stuff.I'm more USD bullish and will trade on that direction, the only exception is U/J, which I think will visit 80 eventually to complete the bearish cycle.
Thanks Shahab, but it obviously sorted itself out. LOL.

I'm short the chfjpy(2 weeks), long the gbpnzd(3 weeks), and short the aussie(yseterday)....no need for more trades until something juicy shows up.
  • #4,237
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:12pm Aug 11, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting SanMiguel
What exactly is this bit of voodoo magic tool anyway? Gartley?

This is in hindsight but looks to be a bearish pattern on oil (WTI)? The B to C is not the correct length but X to D hits the 78 fib.


Managed to scrape through 236 pips on a GU short in last 2 days - worked out nicely.

True, harmonic are good if you get them right, well done on G/U

Here is A/U update, note the magic of fib 161 projection
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  • #4,238
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:13pm Aug 11, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting Low
Thanks Shahab, but it obviously sorted itself out. LOL.

I'm short the chfjpy(2 weeks), long the gbpnzd(3 weeks), and short the aussie(yseterday)....no need for more trades until something juicy shows up.

well done and good luck
  • #4,239
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:59pm Aug 11, 2010 6:59pm
Cable : as expected
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  • #4,240
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:05pm Aug 11, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting shahab8b
"Wave patterns are like beautiful women, classic cars and great art – you know them when you see them." Jeffrey Kennedy

DAX futures

DAX futures, as expected
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