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  • #13,501
  • Edited 9:57am Aug 10, 2010 9:37am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting strat
On my data it is definitely a Bond Hammer and the more I look the more I want confirmation before I get out my wallet.
STRAT,
Have you entry long trade USDCAD? Can you tell me about your confirmation USDCAD?
  • #13,502
  • Aug 10, 2010 4:38pm Aug 10, 2010 4:38pm
Big Boss bounced of resistance 115 last 2 months. Even if the July candle is a BUEB i feel that the immediate trend is bearish.

Boss is at BB resistance of 115, fib 38.2% and 20 ema is also coming down to enforce the R there. I dont know what to say about the Boss other than is loosing bullish momentum as it approaches major resistance. Doji + IB + IB break below.

Worker: Price broke through the demand DSRI. Yesterday BEEB closed strong and lower than the last 10 days.

I put a sell order 10 pips under yesterday's low and the SL above the worker resistance. Are there any reasons why not to trade the worker BEEB?
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  • #13,503
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:44pm Aug 10, 2010 8:44pm
Quoting kalvind
Strat,
this is certainly a crossroads? Since you posted your chart the TL and 50% Fib have been broken to the upside. The 20ema has crossed the 50sma and the immediate Boss trend is up? I am waiting to see what the Boss tells us at the 20ema. From what I have learnt so far is to sit back and watch this after the New York close for direction and the all important PA and confirmation given by any confluence.
Hope I'm on the right track?
Yes, Worker struggling with confluence of Boss R and 20.

Patience to wait for PASR will bring your rewards.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,504
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:49pm Aug 10, 2010 8:49pm
Quoting casapips
My first post on Strat’ thread and actually my first post on FF. I am been following FF since 2008… I have read and try to understand the 100 pages. PASR opened my eyes about key success factors in trading Forex.
Strat and his experienced traders are doing a tremendous job by helping other traders. So generous!
Once I am ready, I will post my first monthly/weekly/daily assessment on relevant pairs.
I am targeting October 10 for value added posts.

Voilà and all the best from Paris.
Bienvenue Aziz.

I have read and try to understand the 100 pages.

Only another 800 pages to go! "Trying" to UNDERSTAND won't do it. You must UNDERSTAND before doing it.

I am targeting October 10 for value added posts.

UNDERSTANDING knows no time limits - I am still trying to understand my trouble and strife after 45 years!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,505
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:58pm Aug 10, 2010 8:58pm
Quoting lowguy
This is my first post after months of serious reading and understanding of this thread. So pls pardon me if I were to say something irrelavant..ahaha..

I would like to thank Strat and everyone for starting this thread and keeping it alive..

Gpd/Aud is worth watching imo as price is near support with confluence of UTL and 61.8 fib.. But it's also stuck in a range and coil. So we have to wait and see what happens next...
Welcome Singapore Jeremy!

There are two important pieces of information missing from your chart.

Go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning to find out what they are only this time, UNDERSTAND each post before moving to the next.

As for GBPAUD, both Boss and Worker are sideways so we should wait for a break out.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,506
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:21pm Aug 10, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting glasso
STRAT,
Have you entry long trade USDCAD? Can you tell me about your confirmation USDCAD?
Have you entry long trade USDCAD?

No

Can you tell me about your confirmation USDCAD?

Glad to oblige, mon ami. Start at Post # 1 on Page 1 and read and UNDERSTAND until you get back to this post and you will have your answer.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,507
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:48pm Aug 10, 2010 9:48pm
Quoting hcristea
Big Boss bounced of resistance 115 last 2 months. Even if the July candle is a BUEB i feel that the immediate trend is bearish.

Boss is at BB resistance of 115, fib 38.2% and 20 ema is also coming down to enforce the R there. I dont know what to say about the Boss other than is loosing bullish momentum as it approaches major resistance. Doji + IB + IB break below.

Worker: Price broke through the demand DSRI. Yesterday BEEB closed strong and lower than the last 10 days.

I put a sell order 10 pips under yesterday's low and the SL above the worker...
Big Boss bounced of resistance 115 last 2 months. Even if the July candle is a BUEB i feel that the immediate trend is bearish.

She is at the point of no return fib wise! The Big Boss BUEB is now the control bar meaning the Boss and Worker can whiz up and down it without it losing control.

Boss is at BB resistance of 115, fib 38.2% and 20 ema is also coming down to enforce the R there. I dont know what to say about the Boss other than is loosing bullish momentum as it approaches major resistance. Doji + IB + IB break below.

Yes, unless she goes sideways, a drop to psycho 100 is possible

Worker: Price broke through the demand DSRI. Yesterday BEEB closed strong and lower than the last 10 days.

I put a sell order 10 pips under yesterday's low and the SL above the worker resistance. Are there any reasons why not to trade the worker BEEB?

I wouldn't go short until there was a strong close below the Worker Up TL.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,508
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:13am Aug 11, 2010 1:13am
God ain't trading boring.

I'm still watching and waiting til I can SEE what this is gonna do.

Glad I'm not in yet, but I should thank Strat for that - lol

Its approaching BRN soon so might get interesting..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13477
  • #13,509
  • Edited 5:22am Aug 11, 2010 2:38am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting hcristea
Big Boss bounced of resistance 115 last 2 months. Even if the July candle is a BUEB i feel that the immediate trend is bearish.

Boss is at BB resistance of 115, fib 38.2% and 20 ema is also coming down to enforce the R there. I dont know what to say about the Boss other than is loosing bullish momentum as it approaches major resistance. Doji + IB + IB break below.

Worker: Price broke through the demand DSRI. Yesterday BEEB closed strong and lower than the last 10 days.

I put a sell order 10 pips under yesterday's low and the SL above the...
I'll wait to break low of last week IB candle (at 112.56) then see PA to trade on Worker.
Sell order 10 pips under yesterday's low as trade break low of last week IB, IMO
  • #13,510
  • Aug 11, 2010 5:57am Aug 11, 2010 5:57am
Quoting strat
She is at the point of no return fib wise!
Are you saying this because the price is below the 61.8% retrace from the last huge swing up? I saw swings that reacted at 78.6 and even 88.6 fibo levels.

Quoting strat
I wouldn't go short until there was a strong close below the Worker Up TL.
That TL was giving me doubts last night but I decided to put my sell order because having a strong close on my chart at NY's close, my Sell would be activated if during the asian session Euro would continue to go down. The worker PA was not perfect but from my experience it had a very high rate of success.

Btw, how does yesterdays candle look on your chart. I'm guessing that it did close lower than worker TL.
  • #13,511
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:22am Aug 11, 2010 7:22am
Quoting hcristea
Are you saying this because the price is below the 61.8% retrace from the last huge swing up? I saw swings that reacted at 78.6 and even 88.6 fibo levels.



That TL was giving me doubts last night but I decided to put my sell order because having a strong close on my chart at NY's close, my Sell would be activated if during the asian session Euro would continue to go down. The worker PA was not perfect but from my experience it had a very high rate of success.

Btw, how does yesterdays candle look on your chart. I'm guessing that it did close lower...
Are you saying this because the price is below the 61.8% retrace from the last huge swing up? I saw swings that reacted at 78.6 and even 88.6 fibo levels.

Yes. 61.8% is the norm. 78.6% is the exception and 88.6% happens during exceptional strength/weakness.

Quote:
Originally Posted by strat http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I wouldn't go short until there was a strong close below the Worker Up TL.

That TL was giving me doubts last night but I decided to put my sell order because having a strong close on my chart at NY's close, my Sell would be activated if during the asian session Euro would continue to go down. The worker PA was not perfect but from my experience it had a very high rate of success.

That's OK. It's YOUR analysis and YOUR risk.

Btw, how does yesterdays candle look on your chart. I'm guessing that it did close lower than worker TL.

Not on my data - BUT, you can't trade my data.

You should be in triple pip heaven - now what are you going to do?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,512
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:35am Aug 11, 2010 7:35am
I don't quite understand the expression "triple pip" although I've seen it used on the thread.

I've split my position in 3. 1st third is closed already at 110.90 which gave me around 0.3R profit. The TP was calculated based on ATR(10). I moved the stops of the remaining positions closer to BE above the Worker TL. 2nd third has a TP at 108 and the last third has no TP.

At NY close i will see how it looks maybe i can move my stops to BE.
  • #13,513
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:42am Aug 11, 2010 7:42am
Quoting hcristea
I don't quite understand the expression "triple pip" although I've seen it used on the thread.

I've split my position in 3. 1st third is closed already at 110.90 which gave me around 0.3R profit. The TP was calculated based on ATR(10). I moved the stops of the remaining positions closer to BE above the Worker TL. 2nd third has a TP at 108 and the last third has no TP.

At NY close i will see how it looks maybe i can move my stops to BE.
From where you got in to where PRICE is NOW is triple pips. If you only did one triple pip trade per week, you would be in "heaven".
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,514
  • Edited 8:47am Aug 11, 2010 8:06am | Edited 8:47am
Quoting strat
If you only did one triple pip trade per week, you would be in "heaven".
That's my objective
But as you said we can only trade what the market gives us. If the market would give every week a trade like this every week then come the SEEING part. While we cant change the market at least "SEEING" is trainable.
  • #13,515
  • Edited 2:28pm Aug 11, 2010 12:35pm | Edited 2:28pm
Quoting strat
[color=Blue][i][b]1....
This post is update to post 13332

Seems that my wait is over and I can take my chance at picking the bottom. Its 3 hours until bar close, but right now chart is telling me that my wait is over and is giving me exactly what I wanted it to give me.

If charts don't change much in next 3 hours I'm taking a long position at 85.60 with stop loss at 84.60
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  • #13,516
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:12pm Aug 11, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting kaunasny
Seems that my wait is over and I can take my chance at picking the bottom. Its 3 hours until bar close, but right now chart is telling me that my wait is over and is giving me exactly what I wanted it to give me.

If charts don't change much in next 3 hours I'm taking a long position at 85.60 with stop loss at 84.60
Why bottom picking? Why don't you wait too see if Big Boss and Boss turn up first? Right now (even if the worker puts a hammer today) BB & B are very bearish with no sign that they are turning up.

The bearish momentum is still strong. If the price will go up then it will meet 20 ema around 86.2. If you look at how price reacted at 20 ema you will see that its a resistance respected by the price. I would wait.
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  • #13,517
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:29pm Aug 11, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting kaunasny
Seems that my wait is over and I can take my chance at picking the bottom. Its 3 hours until bar close, but right now chart is telling me that my wait is over and is giving me exactly what I wanted it to give me.

If charts don't change much in next 3 hours I'm taking a long position at 85.60 with stop loss at 84.60
Think this might be another bond hammer.

Go back to page one - do not pass go - do not collect £200.
  • #13,518
  • Edited 2:21pm Aug 11, 2010 2:06pm | Edited 2:21pm
Quoting kaunasny

If charts don't change much in next 3 hours I'm taking a long position at 85.60 with stop loss at 84.60
Are you basing your action solely on the hammer forming to think that this signalling a change in trend? The boss is showing nothing but a downtrend and both the 20ema & 50sma are poiting down.
Could this not be a bond bar and without any confirmation this seems high risk and there are many reasons not to go long or am I missing something and have to start on the path again as I am about half way through the thread?
  • #13,519
  • Aug 11, 2010 2:32pm Aug 11, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting kalvind
Are you basing your action solely on the hammer forming to think that this signalling a change in trend? The boss is showing nothing but a downtrend and both the 20ema & 50sma are poiting down.
Could this not be a bond bar and without any confirmation this seems high risk and there are many reasons not to go long or am I missing something and have to start on the path again as I am about half way through the thread?
My reasons for a trade are in post 13332 couple of pages back. If you're a beginner on this path better leave it alone for now.
  • #13,520
  • Aug 11, 2010 2:43pm Aug 11, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting hcristea
Why bottom picking? Why don't you wait too see if Big Boss and Boss turn up first? Right now (even if the worker puts a hammer today) BB & B are very bearish with no sign that they are turning up.

The bearish momentum is still strong. If the price will go up then it will meet 20 ema around 86.2. If you look at how price reacted at 20 ema you will see that its a resistance respected by the price. I would wait.
Thanks for your reply.

Initially I made a mistake about pointing all from where this trade is coming. This is a continuation from post 13332 .

Only this time I'm bottom picking. Everything lines up just right for me to take this trade. Market gave me the hammer right where I wanted it to give me. Big Boss couple of bars back gave us a sign that downtrend is coming to the end and even thought couple of last BB bars were bearish, I still can see bullish potential as we're at a historic point. Also look at how Worker gets rejected reaching those lows.
Worst case scenario I will only lose 2%, and I believe that this trade is worth the risk.
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